Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1267.7 | -5.3 | -0.42% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2334.3 | -15.590 | -0.66% |
| Oil (WTI) | 102.93 | -0.290 | -0.28% |
| LIBOR | 0.5825 | 0.000 | 0.00% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 80.661 | 0.530 | 0.66% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.00% | 0.03% |
Markets are down slightly on a couple of lukewarm bond auctions in France and Hungary. This also begins pre-announcement season, where companies who are going to miss their quarterly numbers fess up. Today’s names: Tesoro, J.C. Penney, and Eli Lilly.
Initial Jobless Claims continued their 375k a week pace, lower than the 400k pace we had been accustomed to. The ADP number was way better than expected, forecasting 325k jobs being created in December, vs expectations of 178k.
The Fed released a white paper yesterday discussing the US housing market and possible policy responses to it. I have not read it yet, and I will give you my take when I have finished it. They do suggest that the GSEs relax refinancing guidelines, and that the government find a way to encourage foreclosures to be turned into rental properties. Anecdotally, here in the Northeast, I do find that banks are very reluctant to move off of their offering prices in short sale situations, which signals they know something is in the works.
Today is the first Thursday of the month, which means retailers are giving their comp sales numbers. The winners: Macy’s, The Limited, Zumiez. Losers: J.C. Penney, Target, Kohl’s, The Gap, and American Eagle. Margin pressure continues to signal that the consumer is very value conscious and that promotional activity drove sales.
Filed under: Uncategorized |
All Things in Moderation 
Local communities can turn foreclosure forests around if they decide to do so. During the S&L crisis some communities issued bond packages toprovide investor financing for turning concentrated areas of foreclosed properties into refurbed rental units. The local communities that did this were concerned about local decline. Thus they had wide local support from business and homeowners and landlords, alike, who feared the forest fire effect.A constructive role I can envision for the federal government here is FHA backing of local bond issues, locally initiated. I suggested that to the two Congressmen and one Senator I have known since law school back in '08, when the foreclosure forests were in limited areas.
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Thought I'd put up Yves Smith's take on the Fed white paper. I know you guys adored her last piece I linked……………….lolIt certainly is gratifying to see the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, via a paper released on Wednesday, “The U.S. Housing Market: Current Conditions and Policy Considerations,” (hat tip Calculated Risk) finally acknowledge that US has a mortgage/foreclosure mess that is not going to go away by virtue of QE or other efforts to goose financial asset prices. However, just as the Fed was late to see the global housing bubble (even the Economist was on to it in June 2005), so to is it behind the curve in its take on the housing problem. This paper at best constitutes a good start, when, pace Churchill, the Fed is at the end of the beginning when it really needs to be at the beginning of the end.Although the document is studiedly neutral in its tone, it makes clear in its coded way that it regards the GSE focus on short term loss minimization as destructive (note the Fed is hardly alone in this view). The Fed argues (with some supporting data) that in a lot of cases, converting REOs to rental would be a better policy, although it bizarrely fails to consider the “own to rent” option of keeping the current borrower in place. The paper is also a bit clueless about the realities of managing rental properties (it seems to fall for the economist’s default view that at some mythical market clearing price, demand will of course meet supply, when spread out properties, which is what you are likely to have in suburbs and low density areas of cities, does not make for an attractive property management opportunity on anything beyond a modest scale of operation).And this is for Mark per his comment above:The REO section of this paper (without acknowledging the existence of the GSE bulk sales program)) is calling for more study before the GSEs embark on an REO disposition program, and recommends considering having “the REO holder rent the property directly” (ie, have the GSEs become landlords), selling to investors, or entering into JVs with investors (oddly, there was no consideration of having local governments become landlords, say in partnership with the GSEs, since many cities have low income housing and are thus already in the property management business).
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I thought this was a telling comment from the conclusion:"Indeed, if the currently prevailing standards had been in place during the past few decades, a larger portion of the nation’s housing stock probably would have been designed and built for rental, rather than owner occupancy."I don't see what that's a bad thing at all. There's probably too much home ownership in the country these days. Young people buying a house which they only plan to live in 3-4 years makes no sense from an economic standpoint.
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Renting has been stigmatized by the Realtor® industry because there are no margins in it. Renting makes a lot of sense in many situations but the market has been marginalized as being downscale.And individual property owners are the worst landlord because they don't have any economy of scale for repairs and maintenance.
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John, they won't be able to afford homes anyway for the most part. More from Smith's piece:Very simply, there’s a vast demographic overhang. There are 83 million baby boomers. Conversely, 46 million Gen Xers exist, IIRC, if one takes that cohort as having been born 1964-1984.Sure, millenials (1984-2004) number about 81 million. But if we take as a indicative metric the average age of Gen X homebuyers — about forty — and then factor in that these poor kids in the subsequent generation are not just facing the worst job market for almost three-quarters of a century but also that the education-loan ponzi had loaded them with truly pernicious debt burdens, that means relatively few millenials will likely have the wherewithal to buy real estate for another couple of decades (i.e. before 2025-2030)And this may be the case even when home prices return to a sane relationship to first-time homebuyers’ annual incomes. As the Fed paper does note, history suggests that such a relationship means that a first home should cost about three times homebuyers’ annual incomes. Since U.S. median household income in 2010 was $49,440, that in turn suggests the average price of a home in the U.S. should be slightly less than $150,000.
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I suspect Yves may be correct – that having banks handle rental properties is probably non-economic once you take into account the costs of doing it. However I suspect that isn't the point of the exercise – it probably is to allow banks to mark their REO at some sort of potential rental value versus the price they would get if they sold the property. If rents are increasing, then they can mark up their REO and ignore the fact that house prices in general are still declining. So, it is basically extend and pretend 2.0.Of course, I am a little cynical. But I don't think house prices have fallen enough to make mass rental a great business yet.
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"The U.S. service sector, which employ 90 percent of the workforce, expanded at a faster pace in December, helped by solid holiday sales and an economy that picked up strength in the final months of the year. The Institute for Supply Management said its index of non-manufacturing activity rose to 52.6 in December, up from 52 in November. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion."Stick with me. We'll get out of this alive, yet!
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lms:Precisely why many of us believe that home prices have not fallen enough yet, especially in the states where so many homeowners were underwater.
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And individual property owners are the worst landlord because they don't have any economy of scale for repairs and maintenance.As an individual property owner landlord I must take exception to this. We have spent more on upkeep of our rental property than the home we live in with the exception of building a warehouse on our property here. Being a landlord has lots of built in headaches that corporate owners don't deal with very well or very timely, from our experience anyway.
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Damn Brent, you corked me!
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history suggests that such a relationship means that a first home should cost about three times homebuyers’ annual incomes. Since U.S. median household income in 2010 was $49,440, that in turn suggests the average price of a home in the U.S. should be slightly less than $150,000.Three times the buyers' annual incomes? That seems awfully high, although it makes me feel better about my ratio. That also seems to completely ignore property taxes which is a killer here in Metro-Detroit.
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lmsinca- I think yello's point was not that individual landlords are bad, but that they can't make as much money because they can't purchase goods/repairs at as cheap of a price as they could if they had numerous properties. So economically speaking, they are the worst.
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lms,I don't doubt it. You have to treat it as a business. Most of the individual landlords I've dealt with are people who own a property they can't sell. They treat it like an albatross around their neck. My point is that they have to deal with contractors on a retail basis which puts them at a disadvantage to multi-unit owners.
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BrentOf course, I am a little cynicalYeah, me too. Extend and Pretend 2.0 indeed.
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ash:My God man, what are you doing in the Detroit area? Scavenging for copper can only be a good living for so long. You don't want to have leave by rooftop helicopter like the last Americans in Vietnam. LOL
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I see your point now yello and ashot, but that balances out with some advantages for the overall rental environment by keeping it out of the hands of corporate entities. It seems to me that in the case of rental properties all parties are better served if it's individual vs individual and corporations and banks are kept at arms length. We've never had a problem with pricing on repairs but then we've been at it since 1987 and have good contacts in the repair business.
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I will say though that right now I'd give anything to not have a rental property, we're beginning an eviction process in the morning, too depressing for words.
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lms:Have you ever looked into how much the property managmenet companies take off the top in your area?
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lms,Also an eviction is a serious cash-flow blow to a single-owner. That lost income is almost never recoverable and repairs from an evictee can easily exceed the security deposit. If you've made money on rentals for 20 years you must know what you're doing.
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john, no, we've never wanted to put someone else in charge……….too many other horror stories. We've been working with our tenant since November in the spirit of our commitment to others but it hasn't worked out in this case. A management group would have had her out by Nov. 15 so we bought her some time in the hope she could bail herself and her father out, but it seems useless at this point and we can't afford to lose much more money. We've only had to do one other eviction and they are very demoralizing for everyone involved.
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John- That's a good question. Most of my family and my wife's family live around here, but I would like to move out west at some point. I don't think there is any copper left anywhere in Detroit. I used to work downtown and on my drive home through the streets of Detroit (I didnt' take the I-75) I once saw an empty semi-trailer parked in an empty lot be slowly eaten by scavengers…wheels, doors, sides. I wish I had taken a picture of it every day. Would have made an interesting photo collage. Anyway, we just embrace who we are now in Detroit. http://network.yardbarker.com/nba/article_external/the_detroit_pistons_opening_night_introduction_were_awesome_video/9049012Empty streets, empty buildings…we show that stuff off now. Sprinkle in a gospel choir and the ubiquitous Eminem beat and you have Detroit Pride.
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ash:That's one of my favorite Christina Romer is a fool quotes from last year, when she told Ezra that we need to make massive investment in Detroit. The sure sign of a loser at gambling is the guy who bets more when he's down, thinking he can get back to even that way.
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John: I must have missed that quote because I was too busy reading articles about the revival of Detroit while listening to Kid Rock and Eminem. Between living just outside of Detroit and being a soccer fan, I'm positioned well for two things perpetually on the verge of getting bigger here in the US.
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ashot:Soccer is definitely the sport of the future…and always will be.
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scott:How big do you think the Fed will go on MBS buying later this month?
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Soccer is definitely the sport of the future…and always will be.I assume you listen to the Men in Blazers podcasts over at grantland.com? If not, you must start doing so. What EPL club do you support anyway?
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ScottC,Just as Brazil will be the next economic power.
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ashot:Chelsea's my team. I happened upon them by chance when I lived in HK (and they weren't particualrly good) and so when I moved to the UK, they were the only team I really knew, and so became my team by default. Fortunately, a couple years later Abramowitz bought the team and turned them into a power. I have a Chelsea jersey hanging in my basement signed by all the players from their 2005 EPL championship team…Chelsea's first championship in 50 years.
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john:No opinion at mom. Trying to get some idea. What do you think?
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"t I don't think house prices have fallen enough to make mass rental a great business yet."In some areas, house prices of zero won't make rentals a great business. Some of the most overbuilt areas (FL & NV) have more housing stock than their are families/tenants to fill them. If there are more houses than jobs, the houses values will fall dramatically. A couple months back, NYT had an article on one CA town that has begun converting mcMansions into student housing. Any port in a storm, I guess.
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"Soccer is definitely the sport of the future…and always will be."Zing!
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" we can't afford to lose much more money. We've only had to do one other eviction and they are very demoralizing for everyone involved."When I had a rental one piece of advice I never had to use was that sometimes it makes sense to pay a tenant to leave. i.e. "Here's $200, have your stuff out by the weekend."
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bsimon, I think I'll run that idea by my husband. She offered us part of last months rent but it's far short of what she owes us and we decided last night to just let her keep it if she moves on so we're not far off the mark there. We'll see what she says today……..otherwise, we turn it over to the lawyers………yuck, no offense lawyers.
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Now that's a nice piece of sport's memorabilia, Scott. Almost sadly, I'm a Man U fan. I didn't start following the EPL or club soccer much until I got to college. They happened to win the treble that year so they were on TV a lot for Champions League. Thanks to DVR/Tivo, I can watch more games, but CL and EPL games are often shown during work hours and lots of the MLS games are on late at night. Anyway, it has to be almost impossible for kids to watch most of those games which is obviously going to make it hardeer for the sport of the future to fulfill its destiny. Rought couple of weeks for both our clubs.
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scott:I've seen this:"Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his fellow policy makers, who bought $2.3 trillion of Treasury and mortgage-related bonds between 2008 and June, will start another program next quarter, 16 of the 21 primary dealers of U.S. government securities that trade with the central bank said in a Bloomberg News survey last week. The Fed may buy about $545 billion in home-loan debt, based on the median of the firms that provided estimates."but I think that's too low to have the bang they want. Probably 700-800 billion overall.
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"otherwise, we turn it over to the lawyers"Lawyers certainly serve a purpose, but if they can be avoided, you might come out ahead financially. Evictions, around here at least, take time, which is more lost rent, not to mention the legal fees.
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BTW:The above linkhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-06/dealers-see-fed-buying-545-billion-mortgage-bonds-in-qe3.html
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ashot:Man City at the top of the table? Strange days.Have you ever been to Old Trafford? I never got there, but I did go to a Chelsea/Man U match at Stamford Bridge, back when Beckham was still with Man U. Scariest sporting event I ever went to. My tickets – obtained at the last minute – ended up being in the visitors section, which is literally walled off from the rest of the stadium, with its own entrance/exit, to keep the competing fans apart from each other. You can imagine the kind of fans who travel from Manchester to London on a weeknight to follow their team. (Chelsea fans aren't a whole lot better.) I basically sat in silence for 2 hours, for fear that they would discover I was a Chelsea fan. Game ended tied, 2-2, which was probably best.
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Thanks for the advice Bsimon. She has a pay of quit that expires today and so my husband just called and left a message that we'll give her $300 if she's out by the 15th……..we'll see. Initial cost for lawyer is $650.
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pay or quit……….sheesh
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Brent/john/lms:This may interest you, on the housing/mortgage situation.
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Scott — that seems insane to me. but what do I know.
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scott:That's very interesting. How did you change colors like that? LOL
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scott:Ok seriously, Pethokoukis is a back bencher, strictly second rate. This type of plan has been bandied about for months, but personally I don't think it could happen. the logistics of the thing are too massive, especially when we STILL don't have settlement on the MERS situation. He's just trying to rattle the cage.
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lms: You have my sympathies on the eviction situation. Several residents in my bldg rallied around one owner as she tried to hold onto her unit. We avoided the formal eviction process, but she did end up foreclosing and moving elsewhere. But we bought her two extra months and helped her get into a decent rental she could actually afford.I'm finding interesting similarities with the tension between members of different political persuasions and tension between fans of different soccer clubs threads.
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Scott- I have actually never been to England. Going to an EPL game, ideally at Old Trafford but any game will do really, and a tennis match at Wimbledon are on my sport's bucket list. Those will likely have to wait until I make partner at least. Can someone explain this to me: "This proposal requires borrowers to give up a share of future appreciation in order to participate"? How exactly does the program do that?
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Thanks MsJS, we've tried really hard to keep her there as her father is ill and we hoped he might someday have a home to come back to. He's been a great tenant. We let her use the security deposit for rent in November and took half of December's rent on Dec. 8th and then never heard from her again. She wouldn't return our calls until we posted a 5 day or quit. Right now we're out about $3200 and I just don't believe she'll ever get caught up with Dad still in the hospital or somewhere….we're not even sure of that anymore.And I sort of hate soccer………but I don't know why as I enjoy most other sports, sorry soccer fans.
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"Can someone explain this to me: "This proposal requires borrowers to give up a share of future appreciation in order to participate"? How exactly does the program do that?" Perhaps watch for a future capital gains event for a particular tax ID. Or could you put a lien on a property that has to be satisfied at the next time of sale?
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Up in NH, three key state Tea Partyers have each endorsed different non-Romney candidates.I'm pleased that they demonstrate TPers are more nuanced than many on the left give them credit for. Unfortunately for each, this diversity probably ends up helping Romney the most.http://www.unionleader.com/article/20120105/NEWS0605/110609989
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john/NoVA:I'm not commenting on either the plan or the article. I just had it sent to me, and thought I would pass it on. It seems to be making its way around the markets today.BTW, I think Obama is perfectly capable of trying to implement "insane" ideas.
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ashot:I've been to Wimbledon a few times. I actually lucked into tickets to see Martina Navratolova's last ever singles final, in my first ever trip to London. Definitely recommend it. But go in the first week, not the second. Lots more tennis, and easier to see some of the bigger names on outer courts.
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lms- No reason to apologize for your ignorance, although your dislike of soccer does call into question your hippie bonafides. In all seriousness, I understand that soccer can be tough to enjoy sometimes and it is definitely easier to enjoy if you have played and can appreciate the minutia. As for the eviction, do you have to hire a lawyer? You don't feel comfortable handling it yourself? I've never handled an eviction but have handled a few cases involving breaches of a lease and you don't need to be a lawyer to interpret most leases. bsimon- I was thinking the same thing (and I'm no lien expert) but without an appraisal how can they even determine how much appreciation occured?
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ashot, ignorance, lol. I played field hockey for six years………soccer on steroids, and my granddaughter gave up soccer for water polo. It's my husband who wants to go the lawyer route and I haven't been able to talk him out of it yet. He knows I'll be the one doing the work and I have a lot on my plate right now……..so I think he's just trying to keep me from having to do it………..whatever.
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I accept that some here believe Obama is capable of implementing insane ideas. My question is, how likely is it that this idea is one of 'em?All I'm picking up is a lot of chatter, all stemming from the same source. I expect others here will disagree with me, but I'm skeptical that Obama (or any sitting president) would implement a mortgage plan that requires no income verification or appraisal, even in the attempt to get re-elected.
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MsJS:My question is, how likely is it that this idea is one of 'em?How likely is it that such an idea will go anywhere? Not very.How likely is it that Obama and some of his insiders think this is a good idea and are floating it out there to test the water? I don't know what the odds are, but they aren't that long.
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Good column about the housing situation from John Carney:"Fed: How Fannie and Freddie Are Hurting the Housing Market" http://www.cnbc.com/id/45874510
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lms- If I were to do it all over again, I would at least dabbled in Lacrosse. I have better hand eye coordination and it probably would have been easier for me to get a scholarship for that then soccer, given my height, or lack thereof. Not to mention I would have liked the increased physicality of lacrosse. But I have much respect for field hockey and can't even imagine playing water polo.
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Water polo is a family sport for us and you know there's a difference between field hockey and Lacrosse right? They're both fun to play though. My youngest even played Rugby for awhile until her doctor yanked her from the team. She has several fragile bone grafts he didn't want to see disturbed………….good for him.
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Know what the problem with that Obama plan is? The loan originator. Anyone who originates conforming loans has putback risk, which means the government can make the originator buy it back if the loan is flawed. Nobody is going to originate a loan without worrying about income / assets / etc. And even if Obama tells the banks that he will take a benign view of putback issues for this program, who will trust him that he won't change the rules after the fact if the government starts losing money and the Washington Post does an expose of shoddy lending practices for the program?I wouldn't. I wouldn't originate a single loan that doesn't already pass muster with Fan and Fred guidelines. And that means the program will have little effect.
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ash — lace 'em up and get on the ice. you'll never play anything else again.
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"Water polo is a family sport for us and you know there's a difference between field hockey and Lacrosse right?"Yes, I know there's a difference. A rather large one at that. I have tossed a lacrosse ball around for exactly 5 minutes before I broke my college roommates stick and that was the end of my daliance with lacrosse. I did watch a field hockey match at MSU. As I recall they had a good team while I was in law school.
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NoVa- Definitely regret never playing hockey. I blame my grandpa for never teaching me how to skate. He coached my uncle, who was by all accounts a good player, but never taught me so much as how to shoot a slap shot. I had a cousin who played for Lake Superior State so it's in my blood.
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john: thanx for the link. Gee, I thought Basel III was a genetically modified herb used in making pesto sauces. ;-D
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Local housing authorities and counties doing local bond issues is better. And the FHA can back the bond issues with guarantees if the Admin wants to "stimulate" the process. I DO NOT SEE FORECLOSURES AS A NATIONAL PROBLEM.But I do see it as many local ones.
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ashot/Scott:Did you see Tim Howard's goal yesterday versus Bolton?Timmah!
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if that goalie had played baseball he'd know that you first step is always back.
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Mike- I did see that goal. Tim Howard is now only one goal behind Chelsea forward Fernando Torres.
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Mike:Outstanding goal! ashot:Tim Howard is now only one goal behind Chelsea forward Fernando Torres. Ouch….don't remind me.
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I thought this was an American blog. I understand it might be a fun sport to play, but how can you watch that God-awful stuff?
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Sort of tongue in cheek but not really. Soccer makes baseball seem way too fast a game!
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john:I understand it might be a fun sport to play, but how can you watch that God-awful stuff?I will conceded that soccer can be – and too often is played to be – boring. The Italians are routinely a case in point.But watch the Brazilians, or watch a World Cup match where a team needs to score several goals to advance, and the game can be hugely exciting. I don't know how anyone could have watched the last women's World Cup final, US v Japan, and thought the game was boring. It was a fantastic match with lots of attacking, lots of scoring chances, and 2 different last-second goals.
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actually, I only watch World Cup. I find that it isn't the lack of scoring that I mind but that shots on goal are so rare. I think in most games, you could stop and eat dinner and still find the ball being dribbled around midfield exactly where it was when you left. I probably watched parts of 10 games or so in 2010, and Spain was the only team that I saw ever attack. I was glad they won for that reason.
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john:When two teams decide to attack, the game can be fantastic. That's why I like Brazil…they always attack. But when there are two defensive teams playing (eg Italy v Germany), it can be just horrible, with 80% of the game played in the middle 3rd of the field.BTW, I mentioned the women's final, but totally forgot about the quarterfinals, US v Brazil. An epic match.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3lpMxc4fZNUa response to the trap in hockey.
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I probably watched parts of 10 games or so in 2010, and Spain was the only team that I saw ever attack.You certainly didn't see Germany, Uruguay, Argentina or The Netherlands play. Germany plays a particularly attacking style of soccer and it's more direct than the Spanish short passing game while avoiding the drudgery of booting it and hoping for the best that you see often, particularly in England. If you happen to be around a tv when Barcelona are playing, you must turn on the game. Watching Messi play is worth your time. All that said, I don't begrudge people who find soccer boring. I find professional basketball to be incredibly boring.
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NoVA:if that goalie had played baseball he'd know that you first step is always back.Only if he were an outfielder …ashot/Scott:I'd post a link to that open net miss by Torres versus ManU, but that would be piling on.
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Actually I take back the Netherlands. They were uber-boring in the last World Cup, but traditionally they are more of an attacking side.
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This video about Torres missing that goal is funny albeit a little racist and very inside soccer."Even Heskey would have made that."
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I find professional basketball to be incredibly boring.I enjoy college hoops but really hate pro basketball and just won't watch it at all. I prefer college football over pro as well but will watch as the season winds down. I actually don't enjoy watching that many sports on tv period, except for baseball, of course.
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Mike, you beat me to it. After DiMag hung up his cleats in '51 he had a baseball instructional show for kids on Saturday mornings. He taught three steps back on any fly ball to the outfield.Kept me from flashing my kiester on many occasions. Of course, we played on fields so bad that the hop was worse than anything.
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ashot/Mike:Tim Howard will have to watch his back. Paul Robinson once scored on an 80 yard kick similar to Howard's, but cosmic justice caught up with him later with this unfortunate incident.
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Scott- I love how excited the opposing team gets in celebrating that gaffe of a goal. Howard should indeed beware.
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ashot:I love how excited the opposing team gets in celebrating that gaffe of a goal. If I remember correctly, the game was an important World Cup qualifier, and that goal made it 2-0, basically putting the game away. So, to be fair, their enthusiasm is somewhat understandable.
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ashot/Scott:Well, as long as Timmy doesn't pull a Robert Green, I'll be happy.
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Just getting caught up today. It was painful trying to follow the separate conversations on mortgage refinances and soccer threaded together.
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