Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1256.5 | 12.9 | 1.04% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2366.9 | 53.070 | 2.29% |
| Oil (WTI) | 100.63 | 0.430 | 0.43% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 78.154 | -0.141 | -0.18% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.11% | 0.02% |
Jobs Friday. Payroll data came in at 120k, but the big surprise was a 4 tenths of a percent drop in the unemployment rate, from 9.0% in October to 8.6% in November. Average Hourly Earnings were down 10 basis points MOM and up 1.8% YOY. Average weekly hours were 34.3. All of the revisions were to the upside as well.
While the 8.6% number is certainly encouraging, it was driven by 315k Americans leaving the workforce as much as job gains (278k). In fact, the labor participation rate declined to 64% from 64.2%. This is probably why the futures yawned at the number. The job gains were mainly in retail and the losses were in construction and government. The overall picture is of an improving labor market, which is slowly on the mend. Unfortunately, I don’t really think a lot of momentum can be picked up simply because housing construction is MIA, and it is typically housing construction which leads us out of recessions.
Chart: Unemployment Rate
Filed under: Uncategorized |
All Things in Moderation 
It may be sputtering, but it does look like the economy is sloooowly turning around. My only solace lately is that Europe is doing worse than us, but that gets me nervous about them dragging us down with them.
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The title of Unhappiest Man in America this morning is a tie between Paul Krugman, and all the GOP Presidential candidates, because a falling unemployment rate and a potential European agreement is NOT what they had planned! LOL
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"Boeing's union dispute is tentatively over, reports Michael Fletcher: "Fox News will be mighty upset about this.
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Brent, I would add to your report this morning that car sales are way up.http://www.freep.com/article/20111202/BUSINESS0104/112020324/November-car-truck-sales-soar-14-?odyssey=mod%7Cnewswell%7Ctext%7CFRONTPAGE%7Cp
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OT: Was the WaPo completely glitched last night?
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Don't be surprised if the market ends flat today, or even down a bit. There's going to be some major profit taking ahead of the weekend.
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You wonder why Congress is largely ineffective at financial regulation? Read these two stories by John Carney in order:1) http://www.cnbc.com/id/45494980/2) http://www.cnbc.com/id/45514645Carney aplogizes, but he shouldn't have, because essentially he pointed out that Gillenbrand and her staff had no idea what they were doing!
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"The Securities and Exchange Commission has determined that insider political knowledge does not give rise to a violation of the insider trading rules."WOOO!!!
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"China Says Cannot Use Reserves To Save Europe" http://www.cnbc.com/id/45520892You know who that leaves don't you?
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"I should have called to check if the language reflected their intent. They now say it definitely did not."Cause they got called on it.
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If you ever want to practice your interrogation techniques watch this interview from last night. Pay close attention to the end when Kudlow asks Fisher if the Fed is going to bail out Europe. The face changes, there's a bit of a body shift, and you can count 1-2 and even 3 before you get the "no". That my friends is straight out of the prevarication handbook. Also the next questions are completely sidestepped in the answer.http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000060159
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nova:That's one possibility, but I really think it could simply be not very good at their job.
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John, are you saying the perception of economic improvement will override the reality? Example, the U-3 number dropped but people who quit looking for work outnumbered jobs created by 3 to 1.
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That's not to say I think Obama loses , the last unprimaried Democratic incumbent that lost was McKinley in 1887. It can effect (the perception of the economy) downticket though.
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You have to start somewhere. No matter what the headline potential, employment is a lagging indicator. This problem will be with us for years, and the worst educated or motivated, or least adaptable because of family considerations will fall down and never get back up. That's reality. We'll drop back to 8.8 or 8.9 next month or two because people WILL start looking again as the economy improves, before moving permanently back down into the mid 8's or below late in the spring.
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I guess my question is: What evidence is there that we are in a recovery?
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Most of the numbers that have come out since September have been getting better. It has largely been masked by Europe. The other problem is our stubborn belief that the housing market needs to "come back". There's only about 5-6 states with a large number of underwater borrowers, and in those states prices are still too high.
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Do you see evidence o economic expansion? Mark cited car sales, but GM has the largest stock of unsold cars they've ever had.
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Don't me started on GM Chrysler. LOLHmmm expansion. Obviously not in hiring yet, but the transportations index is up since summer, and that is usally a leading indicator.http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml
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What John said at 10:02 AM. TMW, we still have a construction industry here in TX, and I think the plains states are "OK".Also, the revision for September for jobs was "up".The downturn is now seemingly in state and local government jobs, and will soon be in federal jobs as well. If I am reading this right, private expansion is now real.
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You people really need to give up your day jobs to concentrate on what is important.
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You THINK you know bailout, but you don't know the tenth of it!"Have You Heard About The 16 Trillion Dollar Bailout The Federal Reserve Handed To The Too Big To Fail Banks?"http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/have-you-heard-about-the-16-trillion-dollar-bailout-the-federal-reserve-handed-to-the-too-big-to-fail-banksThis is all from the audit of the Fed that came out just last week, but which was largely ignored by the mainstream press.
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Nailed it at 9:06AM.Yes, I know I'm talking to myself today apparently.
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john:Don't be surprised if the market ends flat today, or even down a bit.Talk about prescient! Down 61 cents. (BTW…Long bond back to 3.02% I have my moments too.)
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I was watching and waiting.
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scott:Yes you are the Bond King! After our discussion yesterday, I held off going short on Treasuries.
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That's twice now. You owe me a drink.
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Depends on how the market opens monday. I may have missed an opportunity! LOL
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There's still 20 mins to go. But I'd say stay flat over the w/e. Anything can happen.
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Any thoughts on my other 30 or so posts? The numbers from the Fed audit shocked even me.
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johnI just finished the audit the fed piece. We knew they were floating these virtually interest free loans but I didn't realize, like you, it was so much money………………..jeeze. This part rang my bell as Scott can probably attest.In addition, it turns out that trillions of dollars of this bailout money actually went overseas. According to the GAO audit, approximately $3.08 trillion went to foreign banks in Europe and in Asia.So why were our dollars being used to bail out foreign banks while tens of millions of American families were deeply suffering?That is a very good question.Someone needs to rein these guys in, imo.
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This part also too:Not only did the Federal Reserve give 16.1 trillion dollars in nearly interest-free loans to the "too big to fail" banks, the Fed also paid them over 600 million dollars to help run the emergency lending program. According to the GAO, the Federal Reserve shelled out an astounding $659.4 million in "fees" to the very financial institutions which caused the financial crisis in the first place.
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