Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1257.5 20.1 1.62%
Eurostoxx Index 2321.2 66.270 2.94%
Oil (WTI) 98.32 0.540 0.55%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 77.2 -0.414 -0.53%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.06% 0.00%

Markets are rallying due to Italy’s vote to adopt austerity plans and a better than expected University of Michigan Consumer confidence report. Italian government bonds are rallying again. That said, EURIBOR / OIS is wider, signalling all is not well in the banking system. The chart below explains why:

Chart: Comparison of Euro and US banks

(source: European Central Bank / US Federal Reserve)

This chart shows the nominal value (in local currency) of the banking system assets and equity of both the US and the Eurozone. It shows how much more levered the Euro banking system is than the US system – 19.2 in Europe vs 8.8 in the US. These are pre-crisis numbers, so the state of the Eurozone banking system is even worse.

The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence report showed an uptick in November, bouncing back from the summer lows. Retailers are outperforming the broader market on the news.

Chart: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index:

18 Responses

  1. Short covering rally. Stay away.

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  2. Thanks you guys, it's like riding a roller coaster that just zips right by the platform for another spin.

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  3. Dizzying climbs, sickening drops, you end up at the same place you started, with less money in your pocket.

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  4. Brent–I didn't know you were a vet! Which branch and when??

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  5. lol brent. I rode "The Beast" once many years ago at King's Island. At the time it had the longest drop of any roller coaster in the US. You come over the top and look way down to what looks like a tiny black hole and think, there's no way this car and my head are going to fit through there at the same time. When you got off they gave you a button that said, "I did it, I rode The Beast". Everyone else walks around with their heads down in shame because they chickened out. I'm in the chickened out group this time.You were in the Navy right? Thanks

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  6. Thanks everyone. I was a Naval Officer from 87-92.

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  7. I rode the Dragster at Cedar Pointe a few years ago and held my head high. That is 5 secons of pure adrenaline.

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  8. So, Brent, want to write up a post for later in the day about your time in service? McWing (Marine Corps) and I (Army) are working a couple of pieces up and I'd love to hear some tales from your time in the Navy. I'm hoping that Mark will also write something up about his military experience, since you, McWing and I all pretty much overlap for the years we were in ('84 – '92 for me).

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  9. sure. i have a couple good sea stories.

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  10. In a world where cynicism is rampant . . .It would appear that Keystone's delay is a victory for of all places Illinois.Things that make you go hmmmm.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-11/enbridge-s-oil-sands-pipeline-gains-from-delays-to-keystone-xl.html

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  11. John, I am shocked, shocked, that you would exhibit any cynicism toward this alternative.–Resident of Illinois

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  12. Wait. Keystone XL is bad because it goes over the Nebraska aquifer. But the Enbridge pipeline is OK even though it will have to go over the Mississippi somewhere upstream of St. Louis?Maybe someone can explain that logic to me.

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  13. Follow the money, always

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  14. Followed the money to the Enbridge website. I guess there are existing pipelines from IL to Cushing, OK already in service.Enbridge Mid-Continent SystemEnbridge Spearhead SystemI guess it makes a little more sense to add pipelines to the existing lines, if that is the plan.

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  15. but the question is, for WHOM does it make more sense?

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  16. Mike, soiling an aquifer potentially soils water sources for decades. Soiling the missippi merely soils someone dwnstream.Certainly I wouldn't live downstream of me, all things considered…

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