Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktI am on record as predicting Obama wins in 2012, based on historical trends. That is, the last incumbent to lose the Whitehouse without a 3rd party or primary challenger (folks who died or decided not to run don’t count) was Herbert Hoover.
However, the general level of dissatisfaction with government seems to be at an all-time high.
I can’t imagine a time when it’s been more likely that the majority of voters are going to go to the polls with a “throw the bums out” mentality.
If you played a lot of video games in the 80s and 90s, and you haven’t heard of the Angry Videogame Nerd, you need to. He does a lot of great old video game reviews, most of them negative (about games he hates) and laced with profanity.
We’re so damn smart on this blog people should start paying us for what we write! Here’s a guy who’s paid to come to the same conclusion that we did last night about Melissa Harris-Perry’s piece:
Couldn’t resist passing this on. . .
Filed under: Bits and Pieces, government dissatisfaction, racism | Tagged: church schools, iPhones, video gaming |
All Things in Moderation 
"I am on record as predicting Obama wins in 2012, based on historical trends. That is, the last incumbent to lose the Whitehouse without a 3rd party or primary challenger (folks who died or decided not to run don't count) was Herbert Hoover."The last non-primaried Democratic Presidential Incumbent that lost was Grover Cleveland in 1889. So the odds of Obama losing are even lower than the first Keynsian, Hoover (but don't tell Ruk!)
LikeLike
Hello everyone. Thanks for extending the invitation.For now, this may be of interest regarding the whole 2012 predictions from Matt Taibbi:"Dislike of Tea Party Is Key to 2012 Vote""The status of public sentiment toward the Tea Party might very well end up dominating the next presidential race. Next year's election is almost certainly going to be one of the all-time bummer-fests, where voters are probably going to go to the polls depressed about the state of the world and are more than ever going to be driven to decisions about whom to vote for based on their calculation of Who Sucks Less.That's why you're going to hear some very weird and seemingly contradictory poll results in the next year. "http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/dislike-of-tea-party-is-key-to-2012-vote-20110928
LikeLike
Hey, jnc, good to see you! We spiffed the place up a bit for you last night, Troll even loaded the dishwasher!Of course, I'm not sure if qb has taken off that wife-beater t-shirt yet or not. . .
LikeLike
Hey jncp4!I predict a robust Obama win against the Teabagging crazed inveterate racist, Romney. Republicans will increase their numbers in the House and Flip the Senate 56-44.All due to white liberal racism.
LikeLike
Plus, in 2014, there are 20 Democratic Senators up for reelection versus the Republican 14.This Looks Ugly.
LikeLike
I don't know what the dissatisfaction with government means for the Presidents re-election, but I don't think it bodes well for the country. I think all the charts depicting the distribution of wealth will probably be a factor as well, it's not getting any better. Also, it's pretty tough to claim that you're better off now than you were four years ago for a pretty large segment of the population.I'm not looking forward to the election, sometimes I do, but not this time.
LikeLike
Hi jnc, glad you made, the pie's gone though.Have you figured out how to maneuver around yet and put up your own post etc.? There's a FAQ tab above. And I'm going to vote for who sucks less, it won't be the first time.
LikeLike
Oh and it looks like Paul Ryan is bringing back his Medicare plan, but it sounds slightly different, now it's a tax credit. (Warning FDL) “Giving patients and consumers control over healthcare resources would make all Americans less dependent on big business and big government for our health security; give us more control over the care we get; and force health care providers to compete for our business,” Ryan said. Ryan argued that a tax credit in lieu of Medicare, Medicaid and government-credited employer-sponsored healthcare would commoditize healthcare costs, enabling individuals to choose their coverage and allowing the free market to drive down prices and make care more affordable — and generous — for all.Does anyone here really believe that if we just turn people loose to negotiate on their own, he's suggesting ending the employer provided health care as well, the industry will actually lower costs through competition?
LikeLike
Welcome, jnc4p. Good to see you find us "over here." Little bit slow tonight. I've still got work hanging over my head (but so need a break and for it the project to be done).Btw, PL is like molasses in my computer tonight. Unbelievable.
LikeLike
One more on health care, then I promise I'm done with the subject for today. We were talking earlier about why I believe health care doesn't respond to normal market forces and why it's not just a simple system of commodities and services. Medicare Part D is a perfect example of competition not working as designed. Medicaid still does a better job and gets a better deal on prescription costs. “…the Inspector General has found substantial differences in rebate amounts and net prices paid for brand name drugs under the two programs, with Medicare receiving significantly lower rebates and paying higher prices than Medicaid.”By switching Medicare Part D over to the Medicaid rebate regime, we could save $135 billion over 10 years.Jared Bernstein:"We keep doing this in health care, implementing policies that are supposed to tap competitive forces and constantly being surprised when they cost more than the regulated approach. Yet every other advanced economy has figured this one out and saves the equivalent of around 5-8% of GDP compared to us.We would do well to learn this lesson the next time Rep Ryan or whomever starts going on about injecting market competition. That works much better for future options on pork bellies than it does for pain medication."
LikeLike
Upon seeing Obama's package, they're eyes widened and they said, breathlessly, "It's so big!!"
LikeLike
Grover Cleveland would be less at home in the modern Democratic party than Eisenhower would be in the modern Republican party. And I like Ike.
LikeLike
And I did notice we did a pretty good analysis of ML-Perry's hypothesis last night. I'm still trying to figure out what she's really thinking.
LikeLike
*their eyes, I need someone to proof all my comments.
LikeLike
Yay, welcome jnc4p. So glad to see you.
LikeLike
Lm: not a fan of Ryan's vouchers, I'm not sure how a tax credit is supposed to help seniors get decent healthcare. We need to ration procedures based on performance and let private insurance pick up the rest. Base efficacy of covered procedures on all ages over 65, so the rationing won't be death panels. And private insurance can supplement for those who can afford it.
LikeLike
I'm better off now than I was 4 years ago. Of course, I'm working in the public sector now.
LikeLike
Kevin, over at PL sue, okie, michi and I were all competing to become Bernie's editor, but that's probably not what you had in mind. That's what started the whole "plumgirls" slogan and cheer, which was actually hysterical. We get bored on the weekends sometimes while everyone's watching football.
LikeLike
Kevin, you're lucky then. Honestly, I don't know a single person who could say that today other than our Daughter-in-law's parents. He's a principal and about ready to retire. Last time I checked though he was complaining that he'd lost some of his retirement money and he ended up committing to working another two years because they were worried they were going to be a little short.
LikeLike
Why not give seniors a voucher equal to what average Medicare recipient receives today, let them spend in on whatever they want vis a vis healthcare, and they can keep 1/2 of what they don't spend to be used for whatever they want?
LikeLike
McWing, every penny of the voucher will be spent, and then some, on health care. Do you believe that by giving seniors a fixed amount to spend on insurance and or health care that it will bring the costs of health care and or insurance down? Do you know how difficult it is to shop for insurance?And does everyone here know that 78% of small businesses have less than 10 employees, that the self-employed to not get to deduct their premiums as a business expense to the same tune as other businesses, and also that small group insurance (2-20 employees) is substantially higher than large group premiums?
LikeLike
"McWing, every penny of the voucher will be spent, and then some, on health care. Do you believe that by giving seniors a fixed amount to spend on insurance and or health care that it will bring the costs of health care and or insurance down? Do you know how difficult it is to shop for insurance?"Yes, in that the market will know that there are tens of millions of Americans with x amount to spend and many will NOT want to spend it all on HC. If you, as an insurance company, know that, I'd think you would design an insurance policy, for example, that might cater to a segment of that market. Further, I might advertise how my $20 x-ray is as equally efficacious for diagnosing a potentially fractured limb as a $2000 MRI. I think there is a segment of the population that would be interested in that argument. What it does is incentivize shopping for healthcare with the most influential thing out there, money.I'm also a believer, in like Obama, in removing the tax break for employee provided HC insurance, an FDR idea that desperately needs to end.
LikeLike
"In like Obama" should be, "unlike Obama."
LikeLike
I'm in favor of eliminating employer provided health care altogether, I really liked Wyden's ideas on that. And I don't believe the insurance industry will ever give up their cost control on health care. The only entity that could compete is the government and a lot of you are terrified of that.I'm out for tonight. See you guys in the morning.
LikeLike
G'night Lms. I'd argue that the best cost control exists in being able to keep a significant chunk of what's left over.
LikeLike
lms:Two points from your last post on the health care thread. First, the market for insurance is not the market for health care. It certainly affects the market for health care by creating demand, but they aren't the same thing. Having said that, there are certainly distortions in the health care market that would not exist in a more free market. But that is true of the market for innumerable goods/services. So, again, there is nothing economically speaking that distinguishes health care from any other good or service.Lastly, it seems rather odd to me point to a government sponsored and run program as evidence that health care doesn't respond to market forces in the same way as other goods and services. What in the world makes you think that if the government passed a law mandating that, say, orange juice producers had to sell orange juice to a favored demographic at a rebate to it's normal price, that the price for orange juice in the market outside the rebate wouldn't behave just like the one for prescription drugs?
LikeLike
I may be in and out sporadically from now through the weekend. Off to Wisconsin to see if things have calmed down there after all the hullabaloo over the recalls. Lake Geneva, 5 days of golf. Hope the weather holds up. Later.(Good to see you've joined us, jnc.)
LikeLike
ScottMedicare Part D was promised to be a competitive exercise to bring the cost of prescriptions down, which obviously fell short. The point is that health care and the related costs do not respond the same way other markets do and it's because there are too many controlling influences other than consumers. It is a distorted marketplace, and I believe in large part precisely because it deals with life and death, it will never be left to just a choice between consumers and their health care provider. McWing, I'd argue that there will never be anything left over for most of us.
LikeLike
"Kevin, you're lucky then."A lot of stars aligned for me to get the job I currently have, and until then, I could see a personal financial disaster looming. And if I hadn't have happened to have a job where we needed job tracking, and if I hadn't of happened to pick FileMaker to do that, and if I hadn't have happened to get into PHP and MySQL later on . . . I seriously thank God (others may pick a deity of their choosing). How will it be after the school systems merge? I don't know. But, right now, compared to 4 years ago, I'm definitely better off. I'm noticing something, too, that worries me (though it's anecdotal). During the first couple of years of this recession, I was always saying to myself: well, you wouldn't know it here. People driving everywhere, the malls are packed, and the Wal-Mart is packed, the Target is packed, the restaurant is packed. And they are still doing business, but they aren't packed–at least, it doesn't seem they are the way they used to be. I dunno, but when I pull into the Wal-Mart parking lot of Saturday and it's barely half-full, that makes me worry. They also have less checkout people, which I take as a sign that they are cutting staff to deal with a reduction in customers . . . maybe people are just saving up for Christmas. But I dunno. When we were on the precipice and about to collapse, according to those urging TARP, the Wal-Mart was packed. The mall was packed. They ain't empty, now, but they aren't exactly packed, either.It definitely feels Great Recession-y. Alas, I don't think there's a great deal changing out (or keeping) a particular set of politicians is going to accomplish. I suppose the right set will do less to make it worse, maybe. But that's about it. A lot of this seems systemic to me (something that Obama has said, BTW; me and Obama would so totally get along) and isn't going to be resolved by additional government spending or additional tax cuts.
LikeLike
There is a distinction that should be made in the discussion of whether "health care" is something that is subject to market laws and forces. As Scott notes, insurance and health care are not the same; we use insurance in this country in a strange was as the access point to most health care, even health care that in no way needs to be insured.There also is a relevant distinction, however, between drug costs and other costs like doctor and hospital fees. It is true that drug prices often are not very elastic, i.e., prices of drugs don't tend to respond in a simple way to changes in demand. There are complex reasons for this, but it does not mean that they are not behaving according to market forces and laws. It simply means that their behavior is complex and affected many factors. Some of these factors are as simple as the fact that Some drugs cost too much to develop and manufacture for their price to be low despite low demand. Others relate to complex substitution effects and the like. In this sense, it is quite true that drug prices do not behave like a commodity in a commodity market, but this by no means that drugs are not an economic good that are subject to economic laws and forces. It just means, they aren't a "commodity," but then many other goods aren't either.
LikeLike
And we should never forget that drug manufacturing and marketing is one of the most heavily regulated industries.
LikeLike
"What in the world makes you think that if the government passed a law mandating that, say, orange juice producers had to sell orange juice to a favored demographic at a rebate to it's normal price, that the price for orange juice in the market outside the rebate wouldn't behave just like the one for prescription drugs"Well, first, I wouldn't presume she thinks that (it's polite to ask what they think that first, rather than just assume, because you know what happens when you assume ;->Second, there's a lot of interest in Big Pharma in getting certain drugs covered by Medicare Part-D (and closing the donut hole), because market distortions tend to favor high prices for drugs. I'm sure if orange juice providers could get the government to pay them $50 for a quart of orange juice, they'd go that route, as well. I've long argued for a system that allows pharmaceutical companies to trade life-saving drug and medical treatment drug patents for extensions of life-style drug patents. Ergo, the company that spends a billion dollar delivering a drug that treats cancer sees the patent lapse in 2 or 3 years, opening up the market for generics, but sees their patent on a certain erectile dysfunction drug extended by 3 years. They come up with enough solid treatments and let those patents lapse earlier, they have a patent on Viagra or Cialis for 100 years. Then leave it to the generic manufacturers to get the price of production down, and make such legitimately medical treatments affordable for the general market. So I don't see politician introducing the ideas that I think are good, I am forced to conclude that none of them are serious. 😉
LikeLike
Kevin, that's an interesting idea, but one of the things for which it does not account is that many companies that develop drugs will not have a lucrative life-style drug to trade for giving away their cancer drug.
LikeLike
OT qb, I happened to read your exchange with Shrink last night regarding the puppies. I happen to disagree with him a little, shocking I know, in regards to the training of said puppies. I've known people who sent their dogs off to boot camp with unhappy results. I think the best avenue for training dogs is to take them to a group class. Perhaps your wife and children should be the ones to undertake that responsibility as they're the ones who wanted the dogs. Goldens are very trainable and notorious people pleasers. They want to behave, in my experience, and respond very well to training.Also, the goal is to get them to respond immediately to a one word command, but that won't happen until they are trained consistently to understand what your expectation is to that command. This can take quite awhile depending on the dog.Also too, good luck.
LikeLike
lms — it's not a good comparison between what Medicaid pays for drugs and Part D for a couple of reasons. There's not really any negotiation with Medicaid — it simply sets the price based on yet another formula. Here's some background on the Federal Upper Limit, which is what is used for Medicaid. https://www.cms.gov/reimbursement/05_federalupperlimits.asp And as a stand alone prescription drug plan, part D is a different product. You also have to look at the population and how their getting their drugs. Medicaid largely is institutional care in skilled nursing homes. so you've got all sorts of cross-subsidization and limited cost sharing. some of the costs are for D, some are Medicaid, some might even be Part A or B.
LikeLike
lms,Thanks. We can probably use all the good advice we can get. I think I am the opposite of a born dog trainer, and my wife and kids are no better.We've read a lot of conflicting things, including people who say you should never have litter mates. That seems extreme to me, and our puppies at least are never lonely. We never had whining and crying at night, not even the first night.These two are so different that it is perplexing. The boy is smart and pretty obedient. He clearly has the "wants to please" factor. It was incredible how quickly he learned to ring the bell to go outside — literally showed him one time, and he has never messed in the house again. He goes to the door, rings the bell, waits patiently for us to take him out, and does his business. Little sister just doesn't get it. She's still chewing on furniture, biting too hard, etc. But we've also notice that some of it is communication and not grasping things as quickly. She will coming over and jump up, but we don't realize she is saying "out, out." She just doesn't get the bell. And she's just more inherently defiant and rebellious. Sometimes, I think she acts out for attention or even spite (in fact, I'm sure of it), which is puzzling because she receives abundant attention. Her brother, on the other hand, is calm, circumspect, and secure. But he was the biggest of the litter, and she was the runt, so maybe she is still working out her complex. They are both beautiful.
LikeLike
"Kevin, that's an interesting idea, but one of the things for which it does not account is that many companies that develop drugs will not have a lucrative life-style drug to trade for giving away their cancer drug."Not at the outset (given the nature of patent expirations), but then have it so they can submit applications to trade a patent extension for one drug for the lapse of another. If they are both lifesaving drugs, you get a half-year patent extension on the one drug for the full year lapse of another. In return, such a system would need to eliminate using additional treatments to extend patents (that is, drug A treats cancer, also turns out it treats the flu–I just happened to find that out 6 months before my patent lapses, now I get to renew it like it's a brand new drug!)
LikeLike
We'll probably be getting a puppy come Christmas. I grew up with plenty of pets, had that experience in spades, and would be perfectly happy to never have another pet as long as I live. Perhaps if I lived alone, I would feel differently, but in a house with three women (at widely variant ages, admittedly), I don't need any more companionship than I already have.
LikeLike
Here is my basic, uncomplicated by examples, premise of the health care issue. The market is distorted for various reasons, three government programs, a for profit insurance industry, lack of consumer choices, consumers being locked out by price, medical professional hospital and pharmaceutical industry lobbying, etc. etc. Therefore, my conclusion is that it is not a market that adheres to normal market forces.We can pine for such a market all we want, but the reality is it will never exist. I believe one of the reasons, a basic one if you will, is because the industry answers to matters of life and death.So we can either keep trying to fix it using market based solutions, which I don't believe will ever work, or we can accept the fact that we need a system through taxes or premium purchase, that will cover virtually everyone. We are wasting precious time to bring health care costs down in order keep Americans healthy and our businesses thriving by not overburdening ourselves with the cost of health care.
LikeLike
qb: sounds to me like you're correct in your speculation that you and the little girl pup aren't using the same communications system. . . but I think you've also got a little girl who's deciding that she's going to be the alpha dog (of the two dogs). Female dogs usually (when I've had mixed gender pets) are, and size doesn't matter. When I brought my Daisy home at six weeks, to a house already containing a full grown Golden and two cats, Daisy was the alpha within about 72 hours. It was quite the sight to behold! As long as you give them good, consistent training all will be well, even if they do end up using two different methods to tell you that they need to go out.I'd never heard of the bell method before and I think I'm going to see if I can teach the dogs that one. Daisy has no problem coming up to me (even if she has to wake me up in the middle of the night) and letting me know directly that she needs to go out, but Geno just sits there and looks at me silently until I figure it out. That wasn't too much of a problem in the old house, because there were two doors directly into the back yard and (this time of year, at least) I usually just left one open. This new house requires that I take them out a side door and around the house into the back yard, and the door isn't visible from the living room or back bedroom. A bell would be handy.And I haven't read your discussion with shrink yet, but I'm with lms–I don't think that Boot Camp would be my first choice (especially with Goldens). They're going to bond very closely with whoever they perceive is the "command giver", so wife and kids would be my suggestion for the way to go there, also.
LikeLike
Michi, Interesting. I'm not sure which dog I think is coming out on top as alpha. Boy is bigger and stronger, but girl is faster and more psycho. When she goes postal now and then during play fighting, he just sort of stands there with his back turned until the storm passes. She's downright scary looking and sounding. But he doesn't really have to take her guff and doesn't unless he feels like it. He's more prone to do what he wants and ignore her if he doesn't feel like dealing with her shenanigans.Last night my son said, "Bed time," and the male obediently went into his cage and laid down. His sister watched him and followed suit. She's a complicated little beast.
LikeLike