The Revolution Will Be Televised

No, sorry. I meant, this post will be repeatedly updated. I’ll probably stick a link to it in the sidebar while things are still in “flux”, as it were. Currently (updates are posted up top):

*Updated: 12:01 PM Central, 9-15-2011

Everybody currently signed up is an administrator now. Scott added the links gadget, and lots of people have contributed links now, so good.

QuarterBack discovered how folks using IE 7 can post a comment. Anyone who doesn’t see their comment box can log out, and log back in, and uncheck the “stay signed in” option when logging back in. This apparently fixes the comment box problem.

I only have one technical project, which is getting a custom URL. I’ve set suekzoo to purchase a custom domain which, once purchased, I will link to the website. This should bypass various net nanny filters that block blogger, but the proof will be in the pudding.

Otherwise, it’s just a matter of getting people signed up, and having people contribute to the threads. 


2:12 PM Central, 9-14-2011

Visited links have been changed to be the color of regular links. If this bothers anybody, let me know, but the current gray was too light and distracting for me. Every post I’d read, even administrative pages, turned light gray. I don’t like that, so I changed it.

I’ve looked a little into the gadgets. Once we take the blog public again, we will be able to do a few extra things, like have the search box I added work (it doesn’t work, apparently, if the blog is private). More to the point, I should be able to add a gadget that lists the most recent comments. If you’ve never been on a blog that deploys these, these are very useful for keeping track of comments, and can help encourage a comment on and old post, because if you stop and check the sidebar, you’ll see the recent comments. I believe this depends on the RSS feed, however, which isn’t generated with the blog is private. And we’ll also be able to offer a working RSS feed, and email subscriptions. Not entirely sure how that will work, but . . . there it is.

I also added a news gadget to run down the side of the blog. Considering we are topical, this seemed appropriate. If anybody finds it too distracting, we can take it out.

Also, added a popular posts link. Not as useful as latest comments, but it works. Although it’s not terrible relevant, as there are about as many posts now as there are slots for popular posts. But soon, my friends. Very soon . . .

More as this story develops.

from the socialist party of one

Now the World Bank is blaming its parents.
Can you believe this?
“The head of the World Bank said Wednesday the world had entered a new economic danger zone and that Europe, Japan and the United States all need to make hard decisions to avoid dragging down the global economy.” Reuters
Hey World Bank, who owns you? Are you sucking up to China now too?
Sheesh, yesterday we had a Russian oligarch inviting European oligarchs to kill themselves, now our own creation, our neo-colonialist front-bank, says we need to get in shape. What is the world coming to?

is the microphone on?

Oh, that was easy. This time it just worked.

Who Are You? Who-Who, Who-Who?

If you are unknown, make yourself known! Click on your unknown self under “Contributors”, then click on the button labeled “Edit Profile” and update your display name. Also, add an avatar while you’re at it.

Euro crisis

The “Plum Line” itself seems useless to me this morning – its morning discussion points just brought out Obama love/hate.  So now for something completely different to chew on:

The euro crisis

Time is running out

Sep 12th 2011, 18:39 by The Economist | BRUSSELS
WHEN Russia worries publicly about the financial stability of the European Union, as opposed to the other way around, you know the euro is in real trouble. There is a sense in Brussels that the defenders of the euro zone have run out of ammunition and out of ideas.
One reason is that the politicians cannot keep up with the markets. The euro zone has yet to implement the decisions of July’s summit, but the next shock wave has already struck. Another is that the performance of Greece under the EU-IMF programme has been so poor that every quarterly assessment to approve the next tranche of loans becomes a cliff-hanger.
So each episode of market panic is worse than the previous one, the weapons in hand look inadequate, contagion spreads, while governments and institutions lose their nerve.
The proposed increase in the firepower of the main bail-out fund, the EFSF, will not be enough to protect Italy should it go under, as it has threatened to do in recent weeks. As one German official put it to me: “Italy will have to deal with its problems on its own.” The ructions at the European Central Bank exposed by the resignation of its German chief economist, Jürgen Stark, raises concern about how much longer the ECB can keep buying up the bonds of vulnerable euro-zone states. The German constitutional court has not blocked the temporary bail-out system, but appears to have all but killed off the idea for now of issuing joint Eurobonds, the one idea that might have arrested the crisis in the short term (though lots of people think they might make the long-term problems worse).
German politicians now talk openly of cutting off Greece’s lifeline and letting it fall out of the euro, causing another seizure in the markets, where French banks have now come into the firing line.
Greece’s departure from the euro, if it happens, will be painful for both Greece and the rest of the euro zone, as Jean Pisani-Ferry, director of the Bruegel think-tank, points out. And there is the question nobody can answer: will Greece’s exit remove the source of contagion, or ensure it spreads? Until now, nobody has dared test the proposition.
It is not impossible that the euro zone will be able to muddle along a bit longer: Greece may have done just enough in its latest plan to cut spending and raise revenues to receive the next tranche; the German parliament may be coaxed into approving the July decisions; the revamped EFSF may then be able to take up the bond-buying task from the ECB and a problem may be found to the problem of Finland’s demand for collateral. Then what?
The situation is so dire that any bit of bad news would easily cause another collapse in the markets. So at the same time as Germany is talking of giving up on Greece, it is also talking about redesigning the euro zone. Done right, a new European architecture may ensure that such a crisis does not recur.
But as Barry Eichengreen points out, the problem is now, not tomorrow. It will take years to renegotiate and ratify new treaties, even assuming there is no blockage of the sort that beset the Constitutional Treaty. But the euro zone faces critical days and weeks.
=================
I suggest that the “Eurozone crisis” is not a Main Street crisis here or there, but a financial crisis.  Thus it can cause panic.  But what if nobody panics?  Then, what is the effect?

Bob Turner Wins by a Weiner

Bob Turner (R) wins in New York, a seat previously assumed to belong exclusively to the Democrats.

The GOP should be thanking Anthony Weiner. Good job!

Of course, as someone who won a solid victory in the face of what was once considered a guaranteed Democratic win could have learned from his opponents earlier, apparently unfounded, sanguinity.

We have lit one candle today. It’s going to be a bonfire pretty soon.

Is it just me, or are massive political sea changes predicted more often than they actually happen? Anyhoo, what do we think? Is this a bellwether for 2012? And if so, for who? Obama (don’t make me dig out my statistics on the difficulty of beating an incumbent president), or senate Democrats, several of whom could potentially be vulnerable?

More at the Gothamist:

http://gothamist.com/2011/09/14/bob_turner_wins_weiners_district_fo.php

Ground Rules-Please Read & Discuss

Okay, so tonight was a little chaotic. I don’t actually have any ground rules just some ideas. I’ll throw them out there and then we can all discuss them. Kevin and I thought that the first 15 to 20 plumliners could all be administrators, that way there’s someone around to monitor the site for strangers that don’t contribute to the dialogue in a meaningful way. As administrator you can edit or delete posts, but we need to decide when that would be appropriate. I’m a free speech advocate and don’t have much trouble avoiding or ignoring commenters without engaging them so I’m probably not the best person to decide. I do think we should use the privilege very judiciously and maybe give a warning or a reason first just to be honest or discuss amongst ourselves via email or something.

Second set of commenters, if we get them, could be authors and post the longer comments or diaries at the top of a thread the same way administrators can but would not be able to edit or delete other posts. We could wait and see how their comments are first if it’s someone we’re unfamiliar with and make it an invitation only deal.

I think we should all try really hard not to intrude on the Plumline and talk about our new blog too much. I know we’re trying to recruit some of the better commenters from there but we need to be careful. And for now at least, I don’t think we should ever link to our blog there. Right now it’s closed to the public but it won’t stay that way.

One last thing, the success of this blog and the enjoyment and education we receive from it depends on our willingness to begin new threads with interesting ideas and links so I hope everyone will participate. Also, AFAIC off topic is fine in any thread.

This was quick and dirty so forgive any mistakes. The floor is yours.

False Narrative

Well, the liberal talking point of the day seems to be the cheering that took place last night during the Republican debate. According to the liberal narrative, the crowd erupted in applause when it was suggested that a poor planning 30-something might be left to die for want of insurance. The liberal outrage was summed up by 12Bar earlier:

The implications of letting uninsured people die is broad. Why even get the fire department out there to pry them out their wrecked cars if they’re uninsured. Just tow the whole thing, wreck and victims to the wrecking yard where we don’t have to hear them scream. And people applaud for this?


Well no, they don’t. You guys should really watch that portion of the debate again. There was no audience cheer in support of the idea of letting the uninsured die This is just an invented talking point. In fact, the notion was explicitly rejected by Paul, to the sound of applause.

The initial cheer came when Blitzer asked “Who pays?” and Paul responded “That’s what freedom is all about, taking your own risks. This whole idea that you have to prepare and take care of everybody…” (Applause)

Note that at this point the notion that anyone might die had not yet been raised. The question had to do with who pays the bill for medical treatment. Only after the applauding had susided did Blitzer ask “But Congressman, are you saying that society should just let him die?”

Paul then explicitly rejected this notion, saying “No. I practiced medicine before we had Medicaid, in the early 1960s, when I got out of medical school. I practiced at Santa Rosa Hospital in San Antonio, and the churches took care of them. We never turned anybody away from the hospitals.” The corwd then erupted into applause again.

Watch the exchange and see if this isn’t so. Today’s liberal talking point is based on a complete misrepresentation of what happened. The applause was not for the idea of letting someone die. It was for the notion that people ought to be responsible for themselves.

The horror!

A Modest Corporate Tax Rate Proposal

I pose that corporate tax rates should be made rational and competitive, and I think the 28-29% area is both, provided we close most yawning gaps. 

See

 http://www.smbiz.com/sbrl001.html#ci

 and note that the rate table is irrational: the top rate, 39%, falls on entities making between $100K and $335K and then drops off! I pick the 28-29% level for a top corporate tax for competitiveness. 

See:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_rates_around_the_world

 You will point out that competitor nations have other taxes, and I will respond that due to our federal system we do too.

I would abolish CG preferential treatment if we had a flat tax rate with a high standard deduction, but if we retain a progressive structure then sales of appreciated assets place a punishing high tax on income, which spread over the life of the asset, would have been taxed at a conceivably much lower lower rate.  Take your sale of non-homestead real property, owned for 30 years. It has appreciated five times over. If you are normally in a 15% bracket this appreciation would put you in the 35% bracket for the current year, thus punishing you for having kept the property, because if you could have sold it off piecemeal over the years you would have been taxed at the lower rate. However, I favor a method that would allow us to abolish CG preference because I favor a flatter structure.

I would toy with a very high standard deduction and no itemization as a starting place.  That allows for much flatter rates and simpler personal returns. For example:The last time I ran the numbers, a standard deduction of $20K for a single person, $40K for a couple, plus $10K for the first dependent, coupled with a 33 1/3% flat tax above that, and a 40% rate on incomes over $250K for an individual, $500K for a married couple, plus $10K for the first dependent produces more revenue, but hits higher on the income scale than our current system. CG rates could be the lower of the only two brackets, 33 1/3%. I would consider stretching the CG holding period to three years.

Without itemization, personal tax issues are simplified. I would treat dividends and interest the same as earned income and I would ignore the ruckus about double taxation of corporations. I would call double taxation a cost of obtaining the liability shield for the investors.

However, I would gradually move away from reliance upon the personal income tax toward a small transaction tax on the widest base of transactions, like the automated payment transaction tax for which great claims have been made. 

See:

 http://www.apttax.com/execsummary.php

Less radical, but working along the same principal of lower tax on a broader base, we see Simon Johnson’s proposals. Jonson is both a brilliant economist and an expert in banking and finance. 

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/21/could-tax-reform-make-the-financial-system-safer/ 

and download from this link:http://www.iie.com/publications/interviews/pp20110727johnson.pdf

I would add in high “sin” taxes, like those on tobacco and alcohol, but also upon carbon based fuels and decriminalized MJ. I would rank order the carbon tax based on the dirtiness of the fuel – coal would be much more heavily taxed than NG. In fact, I might not tax NG at all if it would hasten the end of coal.

As to the expenditure side: For me, the goal is broadly Keynesian but narrowly Friedmanesque, and decidedly Smithian. We should aim to balance the budget over the business cycle in a way that we are in surplus during most times and deficit only during bad times, automatically – rather than in deficit all the time, which is the unfortunate political reality. Monetarily we should not be flooding the world with created funds and low interest when there is an excess of accumulated capital, but only when there is a shortage of accumulated capital. Our Fed does have the unique dual legal and formal obligation to fight both inflation and unemployment, so my desired outcome cannot be, in this respect.

 As to production and trade:I would also like to see an industrial policy that fostered innovation and rewarded it.  For example, that Silicon Valley outfit that invented the most recent advance in led bulbs should be getting encouraged to keep the new jobs to be created in the USA.  If Austin can lure a Samsung factory, someone can lure a light bulb factory.  I am not suggesting a federal policy on the front end, but I would listen to suggestions along that line. This would also lead to tariff protections for fledgling industries, the exceptional circumstance in which Adam Smith supported restrictions on free trade.

Beyond Smith, however, I would attempt to make the UN’s International Labor Organization rules applicable to the World Trade Organization. As it stands, only the “no slavery” rule applies at WTO.ILO insists that nations have minimum wage and maximum hours laws enforced, child labor laws enforced, and freedom of association for the purpose of collective bargaining. WTO ignores these rules and thus can sanction all western nations for placing tariffs against nations like China where there is no collective bargaining. There is reason to believe that all the western nations plus some others, like Japan, could force this upon WTO, or failing that, dissolve WTO. There is no way we can talk about fair trade without this kind of change, because WTO does not recognize these basic principles.

I have posted piecemeal some of these ideas at PL, but I thought doing it here with some links would be a nice kickoff to conversation.

Welcome from lmsinca

Hi all

Lo and behold Kevin already had a blog up and running that we could all share, which saved me a lot of work. But this won’t be Kevin’s blog or my blog, it belongs to all of us. I’m hoping most of you will participate not only in commenting but in creating your own posts or diaries that the rest of us will comment on. I’m also hoping for an exchange of ideas, free of death threats and infantile name calling, if I can be blunt. I love a good argument and a vigorous defense of ideas and positions but sometimes the extra noise and insults get in the way of the debate. One thing I’d hate to see though is for this place turn into an echo chamber or a sterile environment that loses all personality. This is my vision and mine alone, you may have different ideas, as a matter of fact you probably do. And don’t forget the humor please.

There is a lot going on right now in the world and we’ll hopefully display many different view points and an exchange of ideas, not to mention a commenting system that’s a little more stable. I hope you’ll still participate at the Plumline and bring lots of links and commentary from other blogs and news sources here so we can discuss them. I don’t think we should link our little slice of the blogosphere elsewhere though until we decide together how open we want to be to strangers.

I haven’t had a chance to explore the site very thoroughly yet so we’ll have to do it together. You should probably direct technical questions to Kevin, lol. If you figure something out that will make this place more interesting or inviting try it out and share it with us. Have at it people.