Let’s Twist Again

In a widely anticipated move, the Fed today announced Operation Twist, in which it will sell short term treasuries and buy long term treasuries. The last time the Fed employed such a strategy was in 1961, when, coincidentally, Chubby Checker won a Grammy for his song “Let’s Twist Again.”

30yr notes have rallied 20 bps since the announcement, down to 3.05%, while 2yr notes sold off by about 5 bps, yielding 0.195%. Stocks are down 60 points since the announcement, and a total of 110 on the day.

Places You Could Be Other Than Where You Are

As if the Fukushima area of Japan doesn’t have enough problems, now it has Typhoon Roke.

Tunisian refugees clash with riot police on a tiny Italian island.

Post-apartheid leadership in South Africa isn’t exactly what many hoped for. Some feel it’s more concerned about power struggles within the ANC than with addressing the country’s problems.

Mexico’s drug wars continue, with bodies of the dead dumped along busy roads.

I could go on, but you get the idea.

Some days, most days, I’m grateful for the relative calm in my area of the world.

Hump Day Morning Thread

There’s lots of stuff being worked on, but nothing done, so I thought I might open up a morning thread. So, fellow ATiMers, Stand and Deliver.

If you weren’t a teenager in the 1980s who just got MTV, the Stand and Deliver thing probably won’t mean that much to you. But who isn’t amused by the site a pretty kitteh in a giant pile of what could be snow, or could be cocaine. Who knows?

The iPhone 5 is going to debut Oct 4! Hopefully, AT&T will drop the price of the iPhone 4, and I will buy one of those.

It’s been a rough 10 years for the middle class, statistically speaking. Anecdotally, it doesn’t seem any rougher, to me, than what I observed in the ’70s and ’80s. But statistics don’t lie!

This post has been brought to you by Montanto’s House of the Future.

The San Francisco Treat

I was in Japan six years ago when I was asked a simple question. What is my favorite rice? My response was idiotic. I was in a big phase of cooking Indian food and in love with Basmati rice. Japan is famously proud of its rice and justifiably so. My defense is that my sons were ten days old and I was a little short of sleep. If you’re in Japan and someone asks you about your favorite rice, say Japanese.

I understand the Japanese devotion to rice as I share it. We typically keep 4 – 6 types of rice on hand. Basmati rice for Indian dishes. Tilda is my favorite (when in doubt, ask your Indian grocer his or her favorite). A few spices and a little oil elevate boiled rice into pilau. Koshihikara rice for sushi. Tamaki Gold is amazing stuff. White rice is always good to have around, especially when I want to make some arroz con pollo. Brown rice for the occasional dish when I want to pretend to be healthy. When I can find it, I buy Carnaroli rice for my very favorite rice dish of all.

My love affair with risotto started ten years ago, right around the time my love affair started with my beloved wife. I think it started when we watched Big Night. It is my very favorite food movie of all time. The cast is amazing. Stanley Tucci as Secondo, the manager of a failing Italian restaurant. Tony Shaloub as Primo, the talented and temperamental chef. Also Secondo’s older brother. Marc Anthony (better known as a Latin pop star) in a minor role and a scene stealer. Ian Holm as the owner of a nearby successful restaurant (he also played Chef Skinner in Ratatouille and Bilbo Baggins in LotR). Allison Janney as Secondo’s girlfriend.

Risotto is almost a running gag through the movie. The restaurant finally has a couple of customers, one of whom orders a seafood risotto. Who then proceeds to order a side of spaghetti with meatballs. [She likes starch!] Later, Secondo suggests that they take risotto off the menu as it takes a lot of time and is expensive to make. Primo counters with the suggestion that they add hot dogs to the menu. Finally, in the most amazing meal on film (Babette has nothing on the feast of these guys), they present a tricolor risotto in the colors of the Italian flag. For my part, I’d make a basil/parsley risotto for green, scallop risotto for the white, and a beet risotto for the red.

Since then, I’ve made many risottos. My favorites would probably be the basil/parsley, lobster, and bolognese risottos. I do have one risotto to my name. On the Caribbean coast of Costa Rica, they make a lovely rice and beans. The key is using coconut milk and serving with chilero (spicy, pickled vegetables) on the side. We had some black beans at home and I was thinking of doing something along the lines of rice and beans. Then I remembered the Costa Rican variant. And so came forth my black and white risotto. It’s great with mango and pineapple on the side.

Black Bean Risotto

Ingredients

Brodo

4 cups chicken stock
1 cup coconut milk (2/3 of a can)
½ cup dry white wine (or more broth)
Soffritto
2 tablespoons butter
1 tablespoon vegetable oil
1/3 cup finley minced onion
Riso
1 ½ cups Arborio or California short grain rice
1 ½ cups cooked black beans or 1 can, drained and rinsed
Condimenti
½ cup coconut milk (1/3 can)
½ bunch cilantro, washed, thick stems removed, chopped to make ¼ – ½ cup
Queso duro or fresco, crumbled for garnish

Method

  1. Bring broth to a steady simmer in a saucepan on the stove. Add coconut milk and return to simmer.
  2. Heat the butter and oil in a heavy casserole or dutch oven over med. heat. Add the onion and sauté for 1 to 2 minutes until it softens.
  3. Add the rice to the soffrito, stir using a wooden spoon until the grains are thoroughly coated. Add the wine and stir until it is completely absorbed. Add the simmering broth, ½ cup at a time. Stir frequently until almost completely absorbed and add the next ½ cup.
  4. Add coconut milk and cilantro and remove from heat. Stir completely to combine with the rice. Add the black beans near the end of cooking.
  5. Put the risotto on serving dishes. Sprinkle with crumbled queso. Top with chilero or serve on the side.

Bits & Pieces (Tues. Evening Open Thread)

Admiral Ackbar Cereal: Your taste buds can’t repel flavor of this magnitude!

QB: You can do real dashes by dropping into HTML and typing — where you want the m-dash to appear. See below.

I also occasionally do music. If you can’t come up with something better to do, then you have to listen to it. Tonight’s selection: I Love You. Although I did it in 2008, the vocal samples are from 1990 or before, and it has a background (it’s like a prequel to I Hate You, a similar-ish song I did at least 3 versions of back in the late 1980s). While I included the link to I Hate You, I might mention that it’s at least 3 minutes too long, and that, perhaps, is charitable.

For the fellas: remembering Bettie Page.

Do you like Daryll Hall and John Oates? Well, I can’t stop listening to this. The Bird and the Bee did a whole album of covers of Hall & Oates. Brilliant! I’m listening on Spotify, rather than YouTube, but . . . worth listening to, if you like your Hall and Oates.

Some people are cynical about the future of Social Security because of the Tuskegee Syphillis Experiment. Well, that’s one reason to be, I guess. — KW



Our fancy dancy new FAQ page is now up and operational. Thanks to all for looking it over and adding to/editting it!
Fairlington Blade, if you show up, I need you to go take a look at it; I need some input from you specifically still. Thanks!

— — Michigoose (OK, Kevin, could you check the HTML and tell me what I did wrong there?)(Nope, still having the same problem. May be the different browsers issue [although shouldn’t HTML code be HTML code no matter what?][and where your mdash is inserted I don’t see the code. Hmmmmmmmmm])

[It apparently converts the code, so I guess you can just copy and paste an M-Dash if you want to, or type one . . . alt 0151 on the PC, option-shift dash on the Mac. Typing format for HTML entities includes the semi-colon: “—” or “–” or “©” (that’s a © symbol) and so on . . . Here’s a list! —KW]

[Yo-ho!! Got it that time! Michi]


Okie, a link to your video (how it would be formatted when writing it in a comment):

<a href=”http://youtu.be/W86jlvrG54o”&gt;This is a tear-jerking video, why am I trying to make people cry before work, I should be ashamed of myself</a>

 Like that. Start with a <a href=”link”>Put something in the middle, then end it with a </a> . . .

Can Anyone Here Play This Game?

Warning! Technical legal content ahead. But everything will be fine.

The Supreme Court under Chief Justice John Roberts is routinely accused from the left of being in the pocket of big business and slavishly devoted to the unprincipled advancement of political interests of the Republican Party. Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Samuel Alito are depicted as rigid political ideologues in this narrative, and Justices Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas, on the Court for 20 and 25 years respectively, are not only depicted as ideologues but are casually accused of corruption and cronyism.

These accusations reached a crescendo with the Court’s decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, in which the Court held that the federal prohibition against independent corporate expenditures in connection with political campaigns violated the First Amendement (the case is also routinely mischaracterized as having legalized unlimited corporate contributions to political candidates, which in fact remain banned). It has been almost an article of faith among liberals since that decision that the Roberts Court is the pawn of big business interests committed to destroying representative government. The narrative incorporates not only distortions and falsehoods about cases they have decided but allegations that individual Justices have corrupt associations and motives.

These sorts of smears are of a kind hard to refute, of course, which is part of why they are attractive to many. How exactly does one refute the accusation or innuendo that a Justice who speaks at a conference of organizers and activists or hunts ducks with a business leader voted in a particular way in a particular case because of improper influence? One can’t, of course. The entanglements of liberal justices can be pointed out to show that none of this is unique to conservatives, but that sort of back and forth provides little satisfaction to anyone.

A different way to answer these smears is to look at some decisions by the Court, because the false narrative of a Court sold out to big business and Republican politics depends just as much on cherry picking as on distortions and lies. Here are some cases from the past several terms of the Court that challenge the liberal narrative.

In Erica P. John Fund v. Halliburton Co., the Court unanimously held that a plaintiff suing under Section 10(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 need not prove loss causation as a prerequisite to class certification. Now, this may be an inscrutable holding to nonlawyers, but it is a big deal in the world of securities lawsuits against large corporations. It means, in simple terms, that a plaintiff need not prove that the losses investors incurred as a result of a decline in the stock price in fact were caused by the alleged fraud before the court can certify a class of all investors on whose behalf the plaintiff can sue. Certification of a class is a huge milestone in litigation against corporations and immediately places a defendant under extraordinary pressure to settle the case. And, while it isn’t practical to get into a detailed discussion of the legal issues in the case, there was a way for the Court rule the other way. Plaintiffs in these cases often try to meet a different requirement for class certification (invoking a presumption of reliance through “fraud on the market”) by showing that the stock price declined when the alleged fraud was later exposed. In effect, that is, they try to meet the class-wide reliance requirement by demonstrating loss causation, even though they need not separately prove the latter for class certification, and the plaintiffs in this case made precisely this argument. The Court could, therefore, have accepted the defendant’s argument that the Fifth Circuit’s decision was about reliance and fraud on the market and not loss causation. But it did not.

And did you notice that this is a lawsuit against Halliburton, Corporate Public Enemy Number 1 in the liberal mythos? The company at the center of years of supposed corrupt activities of Dick Cheney and his alleged cronies like Antonin Scalia? Did I mention that the opinion reversing the Fifth Circuit’s decision favorable to Halliburton was unanimous (i.e., joined by all the conservatives) and written by Chief Justice Roberts?

Then there was Matrixx Essentials, Inc. v. Siracusano. The issue in this case was whether a securities fraud claim could be based on failure to disclose adverse events reported in connection with a drug although the adverse events were not statistically significant. A unanimous Court held that it could be and affirmed the Ninth Circuit’s decision reversing dismissal of the securities fraud class action against Matrixx Essentials, The unanimous opinion was written by Justice Sotomayor and joined by all the conservatives, voting against big business.

In Shady Grove Orthopedic Assocs. v. Allstate Ins., the Court shocked much of the legal world by holding that a plaintiff who sues in federal court for alleged violations of state statutes can bring his or her lawsuit as a class action even though the state statute itself forbids class actions. This was another blow to big companies, who are often the targets of such class actions. In Shady Grove, the Court was split along nonideological lines, with Roberts, Scalia, and Thomas joining Sotomayor, along with Stevens in concurrence, siding with the plaintiff, and Alito, Kennedy, Breyer and Ginsburg with Matrixx Essentials. Three of the Court’s four conservatives thus again voted aainst big business.

The Court held in Chamber of Commerce of the United States v. Whiting that an Arizona law requiring businesses to verify employees’ eligibility to work, and revoking business licenses of businesses who knowingly employee illegal aliens, was not preempted by federal law. All of the Court’s conservatives rejected the Chamber of Commerce’s challenge to the Arizona law (and all the liberals except Justice Kagan, who recused herself, voted to hold the law preempted).

In Boyle v. United States, the Court held that an “association in fact,” that is, a loose affiliation of people or organizations, can constitute an “enterprise” for purposes of RICO. That was a criminal case, but the implications for big business are significant and threatening, because corporations are often sued under RICO, and Boyle means that corporations can not only be criminally prosecuted but sued by civil plaintiffs under RICO based on the alleged conduct of affairs of an “association-in-fact” enterprise through a pattern of racketeering activity. All of the Court’s conservatives again voted in favor of this broad interpretation of RICO, which the business community strongly opposed.

These are just a few cases that contradict the liberal narrative of Supreme Court conservatives dutifully protecting business and Republican interests. They also happen to be significant cases, and the language in them is often strong and far-reaching against the interests of corporate defendants and business interests. Of course, liberal activists point to Citizens United and other cases in which the conservatives on the court “sided with business,” and even conduct pseudo-scientific numerical studies to show that … conservative justices tend to vote more conservatively than liberals. If this is really a conspiracy against American representative government, however, doesn’t it seem like a very poor one? If the Koch brothers are are pulling their strings, why all these slip ups? The business community has been battling against the “association in fact” theory for years. Using federal court to circumvent state law class action bars could lead to disastrous consequences for big business. Securities class actions are a bane of corporate America and its “oligarchical” rulers. Don’t the Court conservatives get it? Or is the liberal narrative itself mythology?

What intelligent and reasonable people should conclude from Supreme Court decisions and opinions is that Justices on “both” sides have views — call them legal, philosophical, political, or a mix — and tend to apply and follow them. These people have the best legal job in the world, for life. They have reached the top. They don’t need to curry anyone’s favor. The groups to whom they speak might or might not reflect things they believe; the people with whom they associate might or might not be like minded. But they don’t vote the way they do because of these things. If their associations reflect something about their beliefs, it is the beliefs that came first.

Dead Man Walking

Note: Please be kind – this is my first attempt at posting and I rushed it because of its timely nature. I will be gone most of the afternoon but will try and check back here and there when I can, so please don’t think I posted and ran away — SCat

The Georgia Board of Pardons and Paroles denied clemency this morning to Troy Davis who is scheduled to be executed by lethal injection tomorrow evening at 7 p.m.

If you have not recently seen or heard about his case, a decent overview is given here. In brief, Mr. Davis was convicted of shooting Savannah Police Officer Mark Allen MacPhail in 1991. The murder weapon was never found, no physical evidence linked Mr. Davis to the crime, and since that time 7 of the nine witnesses who testified against Davis have recanted – several claiming that they were coerced by police. The eighth witness originally claimed he could not identify anyone involved in the crime and the ninth witness actually has himself confessed to the crime to friends and family members in the last few years. Mr. Davis has had his execution stayed on three separate occasions – in 2007 by the state parole board, in 2008 by the US Supreme Court, and in 2008 by a federal appeals court. With the decision handed out this morning, it is highly unlikely his execution will by stayed again.

As a progressive and a Roman Catholic, I admit that the death penalty is one issue that I have struggled mightily with in my life. I wince at the thought of the state wielding that sort of power, I am sickened at the idea of executing the innocent, and I am appalled at the role that race or poverty often play in these cases. On the other hand, I see obviously guilty monsters like Timothy McVeigh or David Westerfield and I have a very difficult time mustering up any degree of sympathy for their plights; and as I watch the family of Officer McPhail on tv fighting for their loved one, I wonder: how would I respond in their shoes? How would I feel if it was my husband or my child that had been violently taken away from me? Would I be secure enough in my faith to not seek revenge through the justice system? Could I take a step back and question the evidence and wonder whether the right person was convicted?

I don’t know and hope I never know the answers to those questions, but when a case like Mr. Davis’ arise, it clarifies the main issue for me: how can we execute someone when such profound questions of innocence and guilt remain?

I am going over yonder
Where no ghost can follow me

There’s another place beyond here

Where I’ll be free I believe.

— Steve Earle, Over Yonder (Jonathan’s Song)

Medical Costs and Transparency – from WSJ

Thanks to the hard work of those who founded this blog and for those who insisted on inviting me. I have only scorn for those who failed to do either of the above, particularly those who failed to do the later.

There was a commentary in today’s Wall Street Journal discussing improving transparency in our health care system by publicly releasing data contained in insurance claims which is required under the ACA. The title of the article is More Transparency, Better Health Care but it is behind a pay wall (although I managed to get the full text as part of a “free pass”).

The commentary is quiet short and superficial, but it had a few interesting highlights that may be worthy of additional thought and discussion:

Rates of preventable diseases, hospitalizations, complications and readmissions vary greatly among health-care providers.

This sort of addresses something NoVa raised at the PL a while ago (although not exactly the same) in that there are often large regional variations in treatment regimens that lead to disparate spending and outcomes. Some of this is understandable as population differences will impact treatment differences, but it seems to me that there should be fewer differences than presently exist. The question, of course, is how do decrease those differences. I wonder what role competition plays here. Competition between health care providers may decrease cooperation and sharing knowledge but should also spur innovation (although under the present system there is less incentive to prevent disease or prevent readmission).

Too often, unnecessary, redundant and needlessly expensive tests and treatments are prescribed.

Well, now we’re just stating the obvious in a very unhelpful way. The reasons these treatments are prescribed vary widely.

Controlling costs without compromising quality will require multiple scalpels rather than one blunt instrument. Public reporting of performances measure could provide those scalpels by allowing the public to compare doctors and hospitals based on cost and clinical results.

Now we get to the crux of the commentary and to an issue raised by other PL contributors. Would a more informed public make better decisions with their health care dollars? The authors answer in the affirmative, but fail to provide any real explanation as to how or how much. I think it would be hard to argue that making the data available is a bad thing (assuming the data is accurate) but I am skeptical that it would make too much of a difference. We often don’t have time to comparison shop and even if we are afforded the time to do so, would we take the time to do so and would the time we spend shopping really be time well spent? Perhaps more importantly, as long as we still have the same health insurance system, won’t people just choose the person with the best “stats” regardless of costs? This seem particularly true when we consider that most health care dollars are spent at the end of life and often those treatment decisions are made by spouses and children who are both emotionally invested and, with respect to children, not impacted financially (inheritance aside) by how much a given treatment decision costs.

I wish the article had been more informative, but I do think it is good starting point for a conversation.

Don’t Forget Greece

Everyone is anxiously waiting to see the results of Greece defaulting on its debt and how it will affect the rest of us. Are they really going to default? It appears there’s not much left to try even though the confidence boosters keep trying to delay the inevitable and give us happy talk while we wait.

I’m not much of an economist and so I thought this piece in the NY Times was a good read about where things stand and where they’re headed, especially for those of us who are interested in the story but can’t quite wrap our minds around the global market and what a Greek default might mean for us.

We could call it “Greek Default for Dummies” (like me). Hopefully some of you reading this will have more to say. There was a piece in the Financial Times I couldn’t get to because of a pay wall. Maybe someone here could give us the hightlights?

Greece Nears the Precipice

A few highlights from the piece:

A default would relieve Greece of paying off a mountain of debt that it cannot afford, no matter how much it continues to cut government spending, which already has caused its economy to shrink.

At the same time, however, there is a fear of the unknown beyond Greece’s borders. Merrill Lynch estimates that the shock to growth in Europe, while not as severe as in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008, would be troubling, with overall output contracting by 1.3 percent in 2012.

While other countries have defaulted on their sovereign debt in recent times without causing systemic contagion, analysts weighing the numbers on Greece note that its debt is far higher, so the ripple effects could be more serious.

Total Greek public debt is about 370 billion euros, or $500 billion. By comparison, Argentina’s debt was $82 billion when it defaulted in 2001; when Russia defaulted, in 1998, its debt was $79 billion.

Willem Buiter, the chief economist at Citigroup, presents two possible default outcomes. In the first, Greece forces private sector creditors to take a loss on their bonds of 60 to 80 percent but manages to stay inside the euro zone by keeping current on the smaller amount that it owes its official lenders, like the European Union and the I.M.F.

While technically a default, the loss would not be an outright repudiation of Greece’s debt and the contagion could, in theory, be contained.

One big unknown revolves around the fact that, unlike other countries that have defaulted on their debts in the past, Greece does not have its own currency.

The potentially more dangerous default outcome is if Greece decides to leave or is forced to leave the euro, according to Mr. Buiter. Then, Mr. Buiter believes, the debt write-off would approach 100 percent and the effects on international markets could be much more serious.

The Fair thing? The Fair Thing!?!

Nancy: Well, if that’s your attitude, I think you should give me half the money and let me eat whatever I want and you can do what you want with your half. I think that’s the fair thing. 

David: The fair thing? The fair thing? I can’t believe it.  That’s it! I have been too controlled! What do you mean?  You took our nest egg and you broke all over the Desert Inn!

– Scene at the Hoover Dam from Lost In America, 1985

We hear a lot from President Obama, and the left in general, about the rich “paying their fair share” in taxes, the implication being, of course, that they don’t pay their “fair share”. But almost inevitably the charge comes without any serious consideration or offer of an actual objective measure of what fairness means. It is used simply as a populist cudgel to demonize the so-called rich. I think a true measure of “fairness” needs to be established in order to properly analyze whether this claim, that the “rich” aren’t paying their “fair share”, has any validity whatsoever. So what might such an objective measure be?


There has been one such measure offered recently, which is that people who earn an income from capital gains end up paying a lower rate of tax on their income than people who earn income from a salary. This, it is said (and seems at first glance) is objectively unfair. This particular measure is definitely worthy of consideration, and perhaps can be the subject of a future post. But for now I’d like to leave it aside, not only because of the complexity involved (one cannot talk about capital gains tax without also considering corporate taxation, nor the net effect of the progressivity and myriad of deductions allowed in the income tax), but also and primarily because I don’t think this is what people really mean when they speak of the rich not paying their “fair share”. If it were, then the claim would be used to bolster the notion only that capital gains tax should have the same structure and rates as the income tax, and it would be used against people making a certain kind of income, rather than being used to bolster the notion that rates should higher, and used against people making a certain amount of income.


And so, I would like to know by what objective standard can it be said that “the rich”, which I will define as those earning more than $250k per year, do not pay their fair share in taxes? When answering, please try to connect your answer to a) the share of taxes that this demographic actually does pay, and b) the services towards which taxes actually go.