Morning Report

Posted on January 20, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1308.1 -2.3 -0.18%
Eurostoxx Index 2427.4 -7.670 -0.31%
Oil (WTI) 99.96 -0.430 -0.43%
LIBOR 0.5611 0.000 -0.02%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.3 0.244 0.30%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.99% 0.02%
Futures are down slightly this morning on weakness in Europe and a lackluster earnings report from GE and Google. GE’s Earnings were a penny better (surprise, surprise) but revenues came in light due to weakness in Europe and the finance business. Google stunk up the joint with a miss on the top line and the bottom line. It is down 8% pre-market.
Sorry I wasn’t around yesterday, though I see some people filled in for me.  I was at the CSFB Securitized Products conference yesterday in the city. Congressman David Schweikert (Vice Chairman of te House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets and Government Sponsored Enterprises) spoke regarding the regulatory environment. A few takeways from the conference:
1) CSFB expects housing to decline 5%-7% this year and that *should* mark the bottom.
2) The government wants to introduce private capital into the mortgage market, but at the same time is trying to drive it away. The SEC is looking at changing the treatment of mortgage REITs which would drain, not add, private capital.
3) To get Fannie Mae capitalized to a reasonable level that would allow it to re-float would take a quarter of a trillion dollars. Nobody has a clue where that much money can be raised in the private sector. Which means Fannie and Fred will continue to be wards of the state.
4) The government is really interested in REOs to rentals. The problem is scalability.
5) 60% of underwater homeowners are current on their mortgages. Any sort of mass refinancing / mass principal cramdown for delinquent borrowers will also contain a massive moral hazard problem. Also, different treatment – the homeowner with a FHA loan gets relief, while the guy who’s mortgage went the private label route gets nothing.
6) There are a few leaders in Washington who get it, but most don’t. The appetite is still for slowing the foreclosure pipeline (in spite of volumes of evidence that it doesn’t do a thing to slow price depreciation – in fact it makes it worse).
7) Democrats want mass principal cramdowns and refis in spite of the fact that it would be an economic drag. It is simply a 1:1 transfer of wealth from investors to borrowers, so there is no multiplier effect, and the additional regulatory risk would drive mortgage rates higher. CSFB has conducted studies showing it is the affordability of the mortgage payment that matters, not the borrower’s equity position.
8) Question of the day: “Congressman, has anyone in Washington thought about just letting the markets clear?”  (The only thing that brought out laughter from the audience all day)
One observation I would make is that we want first time homebuyers, not necessarily hedge funds, to be buying up the excess supply. Yet closing times and down payment requirements for short sales drive many first time homebuyers away. I don’t know if it is because of regulatory reasons. If it is, Washington and the states should figure out a way to streamline the process.
In economic data, existing home sales comes out at 10:00.

Filed under: Earnings Announcements, Economic data, Economy, free markets, housing, politics | 35 Comments »

Republican Debate #17

Posted on January 19, 2012 by okiegirl

Watched the R debate tonight. Seemed to me the gloves came off, and it got pretty cutthroat at times. Anybody else watch? I didn’t keep notes, but there were some statements that really struck me. One example: in a litany of what Obama is doing wrong, Romney included that Obama “wants the government to run this country.” Really? As opposed to whom or what? The government is the surrogate for the people as expressed by our votes.  It was notable that  Romney has already pivoted sharply to the general election.

Notes/commentary by anyone else?

A few links from Ashot:

All about the Benjamins….and Newt’s marriage(s)

EJ Dionne thinks Gingrich won and may have done enough to win South Carolina.

I thought Jennifer Rubin had a few good lines in her take on the debate.

And last, but not least, The Fix weighs in on winners (Santorum, Gingrich, Mitt not on taxes) and losers (Ron Paul).

Filed under: 2012, Debates | 56 Comments »

Slightly More Traditional Morning Report

Posted on January 19, 2012 by ashot

Slightly more Traditional Morning Report

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1305.6 3.4 0.26%
Eurostoxx Index 2413 27 1.12%
Oil (WTI) 101.95 .02 –%
LIBOR .561 -0.001 -0.20%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.323 -0.311 -0.38%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.9% 0.0007%

On the 10 Year Govt Bond Yield, Brent reported 1.85% yesterday, Bloomberg is the source for the “Change” report.-  Via Mark with an assist from ashot

Thanks, Ashot!  CPI is reported “unchanged” which means some stuff went up and some went down: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Housing starts are way below anticipated:  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-19/u-s-housing-starts-fell-more-than-forecast-on-drop-in-multifamily-units.html

BUT:  Jobless claims are the lowest in four years!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-19/jobless-claims-in-u-s-plunge-to-lowest-in-almost-four-years.html

– Mark

Filed under: Uncategorized | 136 Comments »

Faux Morning Report

Posted on January 19, 2012 by lmsinca

I thought this was sad.   Our oldest daughter is a photographer and while she specializes in digital, who doesn’t, her first love was the darkroom and film. (Reuters) –

 Eastman Kodak Co, which invented the hand-held camera and helped bring the world the first pictures from the moon, has filed for bankruptcy protection, capping a prolonged plunge for one of America’s best-known companies.The more than 130-year-old photographic film pioneer, which had tried to restructure to become a seller of consumer products like cameras, said it had also obtained a $950 million, 18-month credit facility from Citigroup to keep it going.The loan and bankruptcy protection from U.S. trade creditors may give Kodak the time it needs to find buyers for some of its 1,100 digital patents, the key to its remaining value, and to reshape its business while continuing to pay its 17,000 workers.”The board of directors and the entire senior management team unanimously believe that this is a necessary step and the right thing to do for the future of Kodak,” Chairman and Chief Executive Antonio Perez said in a statement.

I really don’t have the economic experience or knowledge to interpret this data, but here it is.U.S. stock index futures pointed to a lower open on Wall Street on Thursday ahead of key earnings from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.  Housing starts, weekly jobless claims and CPI data are all due at 08:30 am, while the Philadelphia Fed Business activity index is due at 10:00 am.  Note to ATiM contributors:  These would be useful updates as reported.In company news, Morgan Stanley’s head of European oil research predicts BP will likely agree to pay the U.S. Department of Justice $20-$25 billion next month to settle all charges around the Deepwater Horizon rig blast and Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

 European shares inched higher on Thursday on hopes Greece would reach an agreement on a bond swap deal with its private creditors to avoid a messy default and that bank’s earnings in the United States would be strong.  Spain drew strong demand at a debt auction which sold more than 6.6 billion euros ($8.46 billion) of bonds with maturities of up to 10 years on Thursday in its first test of market sentiment for euro zone bonds this year.  U.S. stocks jumped to their highest since July on Wednesday as the International Monetary Fund seeks to raise $600 billion to help countries hit by the European debt crisis and forecast-beating earnings from Goldman Sachs.

Filed under: 2012, Morning Report, Uncategorized | 21 Comments »

Bits & Pieces (Wednesday Night Open Mic)

Posted on January 18, 2012 by Kevin S. Willis

Not much from me today. Feel free to add. I’m busy transferring data between my laptop and the new iMac at work, and it’s taking a lot longer than I expected. A little disappointed: I thought I was getting the big honkin’ 3.1 ghz 27″ iMac, and instead I got it’s less robust baby brother, the 21″ 2.8ghz model.

The iMac

Not exactly what I expected . . .

Ah, well, you get what you get and you don’t pitch a fit. I should be able to hook up my current monitor to it, doubling my working screen real estate, which is what I’m really after. Still could have used that extra .3 ghz, though.

Filed under: Uncategorized | 65 Comments »

Morning Report

Posted on January 18, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1292.7 3.4 0.26%
Eurostoxx Index 2397.8 1.190 0.05%
Oil (WTI) 101.93 1.220 1.21%
LIBOR 0.5612 -0.001 -0.20%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.634 -0.480 -0.59%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.85% 0.00%
Futures are up slightly on earnings and a lack of market-moving news out of Europe. Bond geeks will note that EURIBOR / OIS (a measure of stress in the banking system) has been moving lower since the year began. It is at 84 basis points, having dropped from 101 basis points six weeks ago. ECB funding probably explains some of it, but it is a welcome sign and helps explain the more sanguine mood of Mr. Market recently.
Goldman reported better than expected results this morning based on cost cuts. Compensation fell 21% and staff decreased 7%. On cue, William Cohan was on Bloomberg TV this morning complaining that Wall Street comp is still 50% too high. US Bancorp also reported better than expected earnings.
The Producer Price Index came in a little hot, but still subdued. PPI ex food and energy was up .3% MOM and 3.0% YOY. Inflation is still a non-issue as far as the Fed is concerned. Tomorrow will be a big economic day with CPI, Housing Starts and Initial Jobless Claims. No report tomorrow as I will be in the city all day.
EDIT:  More bullish economic data:  Capacity Utilization increased again to 78.1% and the NAHB Homebuilder sentiment index increased to 25, confirming what the homebuilders have been saying on their conference calls.

Filed under: Earnings Announcements, Economic data, Economy, eurozone, Financial Crisis, Homebuilding, Morning Report, stock market, Wall Street | Tagged: | 49 Comments »

Wednesday Admin Open Thread

Posted on January 18, 2012 by lmsinca

Ask your questions and discuss problems in this thread today.  I don’t want to disrupt another thread and the conversation going on there.  Hopefully, we won’t need these threads much longer.  At some point we’ll put up a FAQ tab but it may take a little time.  Michi did the last one and did a fantastic job but I don’t expect her to do it again without some help.  Maybe if she starts it, we could all add to it and then edit each others q & a’s.  Unless of course she wants to do it again….. 🙂

Update:  After reading comments from last night it appears there are issues with various mobile devices and your ipad.  Any suggestions or has anyone found a work around these issues they’d like to share?

Also, in thinking about the FAQ page, perhaps we could all just write a brief paragraph regarding a feature or use of the format and then michi could just edit and put into the q & a form.  I’m trying to think of a way we can all contribute to the process so it’s not so much work for one person.

Update II: 

Internet to Shut Down Wednesday to Protest SOPA and PIPA

Less than 24 hours after I noted that we’ve won a brief respite from SOPA, the bill’s chief sponsor said it’s back on track for mark up in February.

But a number of the world’s most popular websites – including Wikipedia, Twitpic, Reddit, Imgur, Mozilla and WordPress – are “going dark” on Wednesday January 18th to protest the censorship bills (SOPA and PIPA).

In addition, Google and other web titans will place prominent messages on their front pages urging their readers to oppose the draconian bills.

This could affect us today so don’t panic…..it’s only one day.

Filed under: 2012, administrative, FAQ, Uncategorized | 9 Comments »

MOVIES

Posted on January 17, 2012 by markinaustin

Rosanne and I try to see one movie a month without our twin granddaughters, who will be 3 on January 23rd. Further, we each agree to let the other go see movies one of us would not see on a bet.  Here, in order, are the movies we have seen together as a couple since January, 2011, with my brief notes.

I hope it is useful for y’all and would like similar feedback on the movies we missed, for the purpose of Netflicking them at home.

We both would recommend all but one.

“The Social Network” B+.  Of current interest.

“Winter’s Bone”  A.  Suspenseful and spare with a great lead.

“Nora’s Will”  A.  How a funeral movie should be.  From MX.

“The Ghost Writer”  B.  Very suspenseful and well acted.

“The Kings Speech” A- or B+.  Well acted. Dramatic tension in a small place.  An Aussie accented Edward was a stretch, however.

“Inside Job”  A-.  Much more compelling than any Michael Moore documentary because it is not ham handed.

“Kids Are All Right” B.  Good chick flick, but tries too hard.

“Incendies”  A.  Suspenseful and terrifying.  Canadian.

“Page One: Inside the New York Times”  Documentary.  Skip it.

“Bridesmaids”  B or B+.  Funny chick flick.

“The Debt”  B.  Good suspense, good acting.  I was granted this as a date movie in trade for “Bridesmaids”.  Aside from the NYT documentary, “BM” was my least favorite and this is Rosanne’s least favorite, but we agree that both are worth a look.

“Midnight in Paris”  B.  Fantasy romance comedy chick flick.

“The Descendants”  A.  Works on three levels.

“We Bought A Zoo”  B.  Not in the class of “Descendants”.  But by no means a waste.  Bit of a chick flick, I think.

“The Artist”  B+.  Brilliantly executed gimmick.  Won’t survive as a TV rental.  See it in the theater.

Filed under: movies | 31 Comments »

Bits & Pieces (Tuesday Night Open Mic)

Posted on January 17, 2012 by Kevin S. Willis

I a guy who wrote a blog novel got the novel published, there’s going to be a sequel soon, and now the first one has been made into a movie. It’s a weird book, but a great read. Reminded me of Stephen King filtered through tosh.0, in terms of writing style. Fun and imminently readable. It’s called John Dies At the End, and here’s the trailer:

Lionsgate tests simultaneous Facebook rental and DVD release. Is there anyone here who has ever or would ever rent a movie on Facebook? Amazon.com, Netflix, Flixter, sure. But Facebook? Well, maybe.

Dennis Hoff plans to open a sci-fi theme brothel in Nevada. That sounds fun.

I just watched Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory. It was strange to watch Gary Gitchell, the lead West Memphis investigator on the case, talking about the case at the time, and then to come in to work the next day and have him walk by my cubicle (he’s head of security for the district). Didn’t really realize until watching the movie that that’s who he was.

All I could think during most of the movie, with the Johnny Depps and Peter Jacksons coming out to hire the best forensic folks to review the case, is that—while these 3 men were not lucky, given their circumstances–they sure are lucky they’re white. Given the prison population in this country, demographically, they couldn’t find someone non-caucasian who had been railroaded to produce 3 HBO documentaries about, and then an independent film?

Filed under: Bits and Pieces | Tagged: , , | 52 Comments »

Andrew Sullivan & President Obama

Posted on January 17, 2012 by jnc4p

Courtesy Ezra Klein:

Andrew Sullivan’s 2007 profile of candidate Obama in the Atlantic is worth a reread in light of his most recent piece on the case for his reelection.

“Goodbye to All That: Why Obama Matters

Is Iraq Vietnam? Who really won in 2000? Which side are you on in the culture wars? These questions have divided the Baby Boomers and distorted our politics. One candidate could transcend them.
By Andrew Sullivan”

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2007/12/goodbye-to-all-that-why-obama-matters/6445/

“Andrew Sullivan: How Obama’s Long Game Will Outsmart His Critics
Jan 16, 2012 12:00 AM EST
The right calls him a socialist, the left says he sucks up to Wall Street, and independents think he’s a wimp. Andrew Sullivan on how the president may just end up outsmarting them all.”
http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/01/15/andrew-sullivan-how-obama-s-long-game-will-outsmart-his-critics.html

Ezra’s take:

“The case for Obama comes by way of Andrew Sullivan. It’s worth reading, if for no other reason than if you run in circles that talk politics, you’ll probably be asked to discuss it sometime this week. It’s an agenda-setting article like that. And, in a sense, it’s one Sullivan has written twice. In 2007, he profiled Obama for The Atlantic, in a piece that did a better job articulating Obama’s postpartisan appeal than even the candidate himself. This year, he has written a defense of Obama’s record that is better than anything the campaign has produced itself. Much as the ideas in Sullivan’s original Atlantic article felt novel early in the 2007 campaign but became the standard case for Obama by the time Americans went to vote, the arguments in Sullivan’s Newsweek article feel unusual now but will soon become standard among, at the least, Obama’s supporters. ”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/wonkbook-the-case-for-obama-and-the-continent-that-stands-in-his-way/2012/01/17/gIQAB0UG5P_blog.html

This is mostly a test to see how top posting works here, including cutting and pasting hypertext links.

Filed under: Obama | Tagged: | 13 Comments »

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