Quick Administrative Note

Mich pointed something out to me a couple days ago of which everyone should be aware.  It seems that, for reasons unknown (perhaps user error), occasionally a comment will end up in the trash rather than on the site as intended.  I noticed this morning, for example, that a novahockey comment from yesterday is in the trash.  There doesn’t seem to be any reason for it to have been trashed (in fact, I agree with it wholeheartedly!) so I am guessing it got put there inadvertently.  If so, nova, you may want to go into the trashcan and reinstate it.  Similarly, Mich discovered several posts in there earlier in the week, including one of her own, that didn’t belong there.

Anyway, I just wanted to make everyone aware, and  perhaps it is sensible for everyone to occasionally check the trashcan from the dashboard to make sure nothing is getting mistakenly trashed.

NCAA tournament update

Good evening.  A quick word from your NCAA group commissioner.

Twelve teams have thus far earned automatic bids by virtue of either winning their conference tournament or finishing first in conferences without tournaments.  Of those twelve, only three –St. Mary’s, Creighton and Murray State– have a decent shot at making it to the round of 16.   But a first-round upset or two may be lurking.

I’ll publish the Yahoo! tournament ATiM group link Sunday afternoon before the brackets are announced so you can check out the site as soon as we learn who’s playing who.  On Monday I’ll provide links to some of the bracketologists’ prognostications, in case you want to absorb their words of wisdom.

Bracket tinkering will cease around 10:30am EDT next Thursday at the start of the first  ’round of 64′ game.

Faux Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1345.55 +2.19 +.16%
Eurostoxx Index 2453.34 +9.9 +.41%
Oil (WTI) 105.16 +.48 +.46%
LIBOR 0.4746 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.882 0.026 0.03%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.957% -0.03%

Limited numbers out this morning. ADP employment, a precursor to the monthly employment data due out on Friday, came out on the screws (insider lingo for “as expected”) at +216K, with some minor upwards revision, +3k, to last months number. Non-farm productivity came in slightly higher than expected at .9%, and Unit Labor Costs significantly higher, at 2.8%, up from 1.2% from last week.

Greece remains a focus, as we wait for private bondholders to decide whether to accept the negotiated deal. The deadline to respond is tomorrow, but still no confirmation on when the results will be conveyed publicly. It will be interesting to see the implications for credit default swaps written on Greek debt if some of the bondholders are forced into the the agreement. Does this constitute a “credit event” triggering CDS payouts? ISDA (the International Swap Dealers Association) has said no, but also says that the situation is “evolving”. We shall see.

Equities are slightly up this morning across the globe, after yesterday’s drop down. Rates remain mostly stable after a significant rally yesterday, particularly in the longer end.

GM and Chrysler have announced plans to market LNG pickup trucks.  The current cost of NG per BTU is eight times cheaper than oil. – Mark 

Super Tuesday

How many of you are in a state that is voting today?  I am.  And you are welcome to call me old-fashioned (because I am officially old now), but I really like going to my neighborhood polling place to vote in person on election day.  It is such an honor to be able to vote that it almost brings a tear to my eye every time.  So I don’t do mail-in or early voting.

Today I voted much later in the day than usual due to scheduled appointments, and got there about 15 minutes before the polls closed (7:00pm CST).  I was the only voter there at the time, so I asked the poll workers if they had a good turnout today.  They said there had been 189 votes.  To put that in perspective, they also said 400-500 is “high” turnout for a presidential general election.  I don’t study that kind of thing, but subjectively that seems to me a pretty good turnout.  Of course, I don’t know how many were Rs and how many were Ds, so I have no idea what that number means (OK has closed primaries).   By the time I got home and turned on the TV, less than 10 minutes after the polls closed and with zero precincts reporting, CBS had already called OK for Santorum.  I found that interesting since I heard/saw local ads for Gingrich and for Romney, but none for Santorum.  OK has 40 or 43 R delegates, I’ve heard it both ways.

Anybody else in states voting today have a report or observation?

Crosby Cleared for Contact

Details here.

 

 

 

 

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1350.8 -13.6 -1.00%
Eurostoxx Index 2486.6 -43.3 -1.71%
Oil (WTI) 105.36 -1.4 -1.27%
LIBOR 0.4746 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.749 0.449 0.57%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.96% -0.05%

Markets are lower on concerns about global economic weakness. The European economy contracted in the 4th quarter, and concerns are mounting regarding China. Bonds and mortgage backed securities are stronger this morning.

Did the S&P 500 just fail at resistance again?

Some 20% of Greece’s private creditors will participate in the debt swap. These are the large European banks – Commerzbank, BNP Paribas, and the big Greek banks. These decisions were undoubtedly heavily influenced by politics, so I am not sure that they are a representative sample of the private creditors.

Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said in an interview yesterday that “This is the best offer. This is the best offer because this is the only, the only existing offer.” Note the lack of “best and final” language. If enough holders are reading that statement to mean that Greece is prepared to go forward with a better deal if this one fails, then the 75% participation rate might become an issue. The business press will probably focus on the possibility of a disorderly default and not on the public negotiation between Greece and its creditors, so we could be in for some rough sailing.

Obama will hold a news conference this morning and it is rumored that another mortgage relief plan will be revealed. The plan would allow FHA refis at a reduced fee – from 1.15% to .55%.

No economic data this morning. No MR tomorrow as I will be in the City all day.

Bits & Pieces (Monday Night Open Mic)

Is abundance our future? I tend to think so. Let’s see what you think.

—KW

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1365.7 -3.1 -0.23%
Eurostoxx Index 2536.7 -9.5 -0.37%
Oil (WTI) 106.62 -0.1 -0.07%
LIBOR 0.4746 -0.001 -0.25%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.32 -0.083 -0.10%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.99% 0.02%

Markets are weaker this morning after China lowered its economic growth target from 8% to 7.5%, which was basically an acknowledgement of the economic weakness in Europe. Surprisingly, bonds and mortgages are off a few ticks as well. At 10:00 we have ISM and Factory Orders reports.

Private creditors will either accept or reject the Greek restructuring this week. The Greek government has set a minimum participation level of 75% in order to proceed with the transaction. If that number comes in less, the government could compel bondholders to go along, which would undoubtedly trigger a credit event which means all the credit default swaps linked to Greek debt will pay out.

HUD has released its February Housing Scorecard.There is nothing really earth-shattering in the document. The document claims it would take 6.1 months to turn over the supply of existing homes on the market, which obviously ignores the looming shadow inventory. It discusses HAMP, but doesn’t discuss REO-to-Rentals, which is surprising.

 

Monday Funnies

A few more political-tinged cartoons that struck my fancy over the past week.

The first one seem particularly apropos for this week.

It seems Santorum isn’t the only one with a Google problem.

Finally, with the deadlines inherent in the comics business, I am amazed at how prescient this one is. It’s as if he knew Rush was going to keep fanning the flames of this issue.

Hope you enjoy.

Bits and Bites: Saag Paneer

I started making Saag Paneer when I started dating my wife. It’s cooked greens, principally spinach, along with paneer cheese (think cottage cheese with no liquid). I wasn’t that much into dishes based on cooked spinach, but I was in love. My Indian cookbook didn’t have saag paneer, but it did have a similar dish called Methi Chaman based on spinach and methi leaves. I doubled the greens, adjusted the spicing, and have been refining it ever since. I pretty much hit my standard batch by using half a pound of spinach, a bunch of chopped cilantro, and frozen methi leaves to fill out the pound of greens.

Then I went to a place in the West End of Glasgow, Scotland, called Mother’s India Café. I ordered Saag Paneer as a matter of course (I enjoy the dish and it’s useful research). Mother’s saag paneer blew mine away. First, it was chunkier. The recipe I follow calls for adding two cups of water to the cooked and pureed greens, bringing it to a boil, adding the paneer and then simmering down over an hour or two.

I much prefer Mother’s version as it tastes fresher. It also had a flavor to it that I can’t quite pin down. Not just ghee (clarified butter). I use asafoetida (hing) in my version, which adds a little hwang to the mix. I went to Mother’s three times in four nights, the last of which was a Saturday night. I decided to go with takeaway as the place is popular. I put in my order, went to a nearby place for a pint, and then came back. The line had grown amazingly by the time I returned. I happily took my curry back and even got my obligatory ride on the upper level of a double decker bus.

Once back in my hotel room, I decided that the rice and chana daal (lentils) would be adequate, so I treble wrapped the saag paneer and put it in the mini fridge. It survived the trip back to the U.S. and I shared it with my two favorite curry tasters. I also made a batch of my own, improved with some ideas I got. First of which is that I decided the long cook down was not necessary. The water I used to rinse the greens was sufficient for the sauce. Rather than pureeing the batch, I used an immersion blender to leave the batch a bit chunky. Finally, I adjusted the greens. In the past, I’ve used a half pound of spinach, leaves from a bunch of cilantro, and a half pound of methi leaves. I decided to add in some mustard leaves for a bit of a kick and kale for heartiness. It wasn’t really a blind taste test as I brown my saag whereas Mother’s doesn’t and it was my fresh made batch vs. four day old leftovers. Still, Mother’s forced me to up my game. Here’s my new and improved recipe.

Paul’s Improved Saag Paneer

Serves 4 – 6

Ingredients

1 pound of greens, coarsely chopped, rinsed, and drained

1 bunch cilantro, stems removed and chopped

1 pound of paneer cheese, cut into 1/2” cubes

¼ cup each clarified butter and vegetable oil

Spice Mix #1

1 tsp. Asafoetida (hing)

2 tsp. cumin seeds

10 cloves (or ½ tsp clove powder)

Spice Mix #2

2 tsp. turmeric powder

1 tsp. red chilli powder

2 tsp. chopped ginger

1 tsp. ginger powder

1 Tablespoon sugar

1 tsp. salt (or to taste)

Notes

Spinach is the base for the greens, but it helps to use a combination. I like ½ pound of spinach, a few mustard greens and some kale, and then methi leaves to fill out. If you don’t have methi leaves available, I’d suggest a combination of spinach, kale, and mustard leaves with at least half the weight from spinach.

Method

Cut one pound of paneer cheese into half inch cubes. Brown in a bit of vegetable oil and set aside.

Put ½ cup of F A T in a med. sized pot or dutch oven over med-high heat. I like using a combination of half clarified butter (it really is needed) and canola oil (because we don’t need it that much). Add in spice mix #1. No biggie if you don’t have any hing, but it really does add something to the flavor. Cook until the seeds begin to “pop”.

Add the chopped greens and cilantro, lower heat and cover until cooked. Add spice blend #2 and cook for a minute or two. There should be a bit of excess water. If not, add up to ½ cup. Partially puree with an immersion blender. If you don’t have one, pour mixture into blender and pulse a few times until partially pureed and return to pan.

Add paneer cheese and bring the mixture to boil. Serve over rice.

BB