NHL Picks

I will have nothing to say on health policy for awhile. My schedule is packed from here until early June.

Pens in 6
Bruins in 5
Devils in 5
Rangers in 6

Kings in 7
Blues in 6
Blackhawks in 7
Predators in 7

Pens over Preds in 6
Fluery is your Conn Smythe winner — only because Malkin won’t be able to abuse Ruk’s team, as seen below:

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1367.0 9.9 0.73%
Eurostoxx Index 2353.9 32.4 1.39%
Oil (WTI) 101.25 0.2 0.23%
LIBOR 0.4687 -0.001 -0.11%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.641 -0.219 -0.27%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.03% 0.04%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 170.77 0.2
Equity markets are firmer as the sell-off takes a breather and investors digest Alcoa’s numbers. Spanish yields are lower as well. Italy sold 11 billion euros of T-bills at 2.84% vs 1.405% a month ago. Bonds are a touch weaker and MBS are flat. Mortgage applications were down 2.4% last week.
As Spain becomes the latest worry, the natural question becomes “Who holds the old maid?” Not the Japanese, who cut their exposures to all but the highest Euro credit last year.
The CFPB has put out proposed rules for servicers aimed at improving transparency and accountability. Certainly the tone of the piece (putting “service” back into servicing and “preventing runarounds”) suggests the government is going to regulate servicers more closely, and partially explains why you can’t give away MSRs these days.
Everyone is trying to read the tea leaves on Acting FHFA Director Ed DeMarco’s commentsregarding principal forgiveness for conforming loans. Some saw a change in tone. Others did not. The problem with principal forgiveness is that someone has to eat the losses. There certainly does not appear to be the political appetite to pass losses on underwater homes to taxpayers, and members of Congress realize their state pension funds (not to mention their own!) would get slammed if the losses were passed to them. Neither option is particularly appetizing to politicians on either side of the aisle. So, Ed DeMarco remains a very convenient guy in Washington, allowing the Left to fulminate over his obstinate refusal to budge on principal reductions, safe in the knowledge that they won’t have to face the consequences of what they advocate.
Are lenders moving back out on the risk curve? Seems like it, at least as far as credit cards and auto loans are concerned. Aside from a few hard money lenders, we aren’t seeing this in the mortgage business yet, as it remains impossible to securitize this sort of paper.

Florence and the 4th Amendment

I promised Mark I’d post some thoughts on Florence v. Board of Freeholders, the recent 4th Amendment case from SCOTUS. Since this post isn’t a scholarly document, I’m not going to provide extensive references or links.  My sources are the opinions from the various cases, which can be found at various sites on the web.

First, a brief summary of the case from Lyle Denniston at SCOTUSblog:

Insisting that it has no expertise in how to run a jail or prison, the Supreme Court divided 5-4 Monday in ruling that every person arrested and held temporarily can be subjected to a routine strip search, so long as it involves only a visual inspection without touching or abusive gestures.  The prisoner, however, may be told to manipulate some part of the body.  Some difference of emphasis among the five Justices in the majority made it appear that the decision might be more limited than at first glance.

The ruling, it appeared, did not authorize jail officials to conduct a strip search unless the prisoner was to be placed among other prisoners at the facility.  Two Justices wrote separately in an effort to stress that aspect of the ruling, and their votes were essential to the 5-4 result.

The decision was a clear defeat for challengers to strip searches as a general policy.  The Court explicitly refused to limit the authority to use strip searches only to situations in which a specific individual gave officers a reason to consider that prisoner to be dangerous or likely to be carrying a concealed weapon or drugs.   The same kind of visual inspection of an arrestee’s naked body, the Court declared, can be applied to anyone placed in the general population of a jail or prison, even if only temporarily.

If you’re still interested, then there is more below.

Continue reading

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1377.0 2.1 0.15%
Eurostoxx Index 2359.4 -33.1 -1.38%
Oil (WTI) 102.05 -0.4 -0.40%
LIBOR 0.4692 0.000
0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.863 0.130 0.16%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.05% 0.00%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 170.57 0.0
Markets are generally weaker as Europe plays catch-up with the US markets. US bonds and MBS are flat. Spanish yields are 17 basis points higher on no major economic news. An unexpected drop in imports pushed the Chinese trade balance into a surplus and is flashing warning signs about Chinese domestic demand.
With Greece temporarily off the front pages, all eyes turn to Spain. The new Spanish government is determined to implement austerity measures and reduce the budget deficit by almost 2/3 in 2013. Spain had a massive property bubble, which has weakened their banking system considerably. The banks are thought to be marking their real estate portfolios and mortgage bonds at unrealistic levels.
One powerful method of clearing the excess housing inventory is the short sale, and often times it is a lengthy, painful process as banks and other creditors drag their feet, hoping for better prices. Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has introduced legislation to force banks to make a decision within 75 days of a request from a homeowner.
Bloomberg has been tracking a story about J.P. Morgan’s massive credit default swap positions in their Treasury department, which is raising questions about Dodd-Frank and proprietary trading versus hedging. The trader, Bruno Iksil, has been selling protection on an index of investment-grade bonds (Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Series 9) and is thought to have sold $100 billion worth of protection on the index. This is the trade that blew up AIG and I cannot imagine what it possibly could be hedging. As a bank, JP Morgan generally makes loans so it makes money if US corporations generally do well, and poorly when US corporations don’t do well. Selling protection is the exact same bet. The article goes on to speculate that this may be part of a spread trade, but even then a spread trade is a speculative position, not a hedge. Anyway, regulators and politicians seem to be lining up against this trade, and if JP Morgan is forced out, they will undoubtedly pay dearly to exit.
Chart: Spanish 10-year government bond yields

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1374.7 -15.5 -1.11%
Eurostoxx Index 2392.5 -5.9 -0.25%
Oil (WTI) 101.65 -1.7 -1.61%
LIBOR 0.4692 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.92 0.034 0.04%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.03% -0.02%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 170.61 -0.1

Slow news day.

Equity futures are lower on the back of Friday’s lousy employment report. Bonds and MBS are rallying, with the 10-year again flirting with a 2% yield. European markets are closed for the Easter holiday, so volumes will be light.

Friday’s employment report showed an increase in 120,000 private sector jobs and a drop in the unemployment rate to 8.2%. The reason for the drop in unemployment was due to a drop in the labor force participation rate, which has fallen from 64% to 63.8% since December. These are the 99-ers who have exhausted their unemployment benefits and no longer count as part of the labor force.

Alcoa kicks off Q1 reporting season tomorrow after the close.

Bites & Pieces (Passover/Good Friday/Easter Edition)

 

Mark shared with us his Italian Jewish version of Passover soup last night (and I’m looking forward to trying it, Mark!); I didn’t know about the split over rice.  The things you learn on this blog!

At any rate, here is my take on Matzoh Ball Passover soup (which you won’t have time to make for tonight, but there’s always next year!) and a few Easter recipes for your viewing pleasure.


Chicken Soup with Matzoh Balls

For the soup (which I usually make a day or two ahead; basically I make chicken stock since I remove all of the solids):

  • 1 3- 4 lb chicken (or I often use a bunch of chicken thighs instead)
  • Kosher salt
  • 4 celery stalks, roughly chopped
  • 2 large carrots, roughly chopped
  • 1 onion cut in eighths
  • 2 leeks, thoroughly rinsed and roughly chopped
  • 3 garlic cloves, peeled
  • 4 sprigs flat-leaf parsley
  • 3 sprigs dill
  • 1/2 tsp peppercorns
  • 2 bay leaves

Rub chicken (if using whole chicken) inside and out with salt and let sit for about 15 minutes.  Rinse thoroughly, place in a large stockpot and add water to cover by three inches.  Bring to a boil over high heat and skim off foam until it stops appearing.  At that point, add the rest of the ingredients, reduce heat to medium low and simmer until chicken is falling off the bones.

Remove the chicken from the pot and remove the bones, placing them back into the soup–save the meat for another use.  Simmer for another hour, then strain all solids out through a couple layers of cheesecloth, cover the soup and refrigerate until the fat on top solidifies and can be removed.  Wise and experienced cooks will keep this schmaltz wrapped in the refrigerator for wonderful uses later.

For the matzoh balls (this part of the recipe is from a genuine Jewish grandmother who lives in NYC):

  • 4 eggs
  • 1/2 cup seltzer
  • 1 tsp salt
  • Dash black pepper
  • 1 cup matzoh meal
  • 1/2 cup melted shortening (or schmaltz)

Beat the eggs, then add the seltzer, salt and pepper.  Add the matzoh meal and shortening, mixing well.  Cover and refrigerate overnight.

Put a large pot of salted water on to boil, then wet your hands in cold water and form walnut-sized balls with the matzoh dough.  When the water comes to a boil add the balls and simmer, covered for 45 minutes.  Do not remove the cover until done.

The last line of the e-mail when she sent me the recipe:  “If they are good I get all the credit, if not it’s yours.  Enjoy!”


Lamb with Yogurt Sauce

What is more traditional than lamb at Easter?  This is one of my favorite ways to fix it.

  • 1 5 – 6 lb leg of lamb
  • 4 garlic cloves, thinly sliced

For the marinade:

  • 1 tbs garlic, minced
  • 3 tbs dried oregano
  • 1/2 cup lemon juice (~2 lemon’s worth)
  • 1/2 cup EVOO
  • 1 cup dry red wine

For the yogurt sauce:

  • 2 cups plain nonfat yogurt
  • 1 small cucumber peeled, seeded and coarsely grated
  • 2 garlic cloves, minced
  • 2 tbs really good EVOO
  • 2 tbs lemon juice
  • 3 tbs fresh mint, chopped

Make incisions in the lamb and insert the garlic slices into the holes.

Whisk the marinade together and add the lamb.  Marinate overnight in the refrigerator.

Line a sieve with cheesecloth and place it over a bowl.  Place the yogurt in the sieve and let drain overnight in the refrigerator. . . or use Greek yogurt for this and skip this step.

Preheat oven to 375 degrees, remove the lamb from the marinade, salt and pepper and place in a roasting pan.  Roast, basting occasionally with the reserved marinade until the lamb is 135 degrees.

Finish making the sauce by placing the cucumber in a sieve and salting heavily; let drain for 30 minutes, then rinse thoroughly and squeeze the cucumber dry.  Add the cucumber and remaining ingredients to the drained yogurt and mix thoroughly.

After the lamb rests for 5 – 10 minutes, slice and serve with the yogurt sauce.


Hot Cross Buns

A Betty Crocker Classic

  • 1/2 cup warm water
  • 2 pkg active dry yeast
  • 1/2 cup lukewarm milk
  • 3/4 cup unseasoned mashed potatoes
  • 1/2 cup sugar
  •  1 1/4 tsp salt
  • 1/2 cup butter
  • 2 eggs
  • 1 cup raisins
  • 1 tsp cinnamon
  • 1/4 tsp nutmeg
  • Half of 4 1/2 cups sifted AP flour

Add the yeast to the water and stir to dissolve

Stir the remaining ingredients into the yeast until smooth, then continue adding flour, mixing by hand, until the dough handles easily.  Turn onto a lightly floured board and knead until smooth.

Let dough rise until doubled (about 1 1/2 hours), then punch down and divide in two.  Shape each part into 16 buns.  Place in 2 greased 9″ baking pans (or 2″ apart on a greased baking sheet).  Let rise until double (~30 minutes).  Brush with an egg yolk glaze (1 egg yolk beaten with 2 tbs water) and bake for 20 – 25 minutes. Cool slightly, then make a cross on top with white icing.


Deviled Eggs

 

Why?  I have no idea why this is considered a traditional Easter food, but two different people told me that, and one of them is my Mom, so who am I to argue?
 

  • 6 hard-cooked eggs
  • 1/2 tsp salt
  • 1/4 tsp pepper
  • 1/2 tsp dry mustard
  • ~3 tbs vinegar or salad dressing to moisten filling

Cut eggs in half and remove yolks.  Mash yolks with remaining ingredients, then refill the whites, heaping the filling up lightly. Dust with paprika and serve.
 


A  joyous holiday weekend to all, no matter what your persuasion!  And feel free to edit this post to drop in your own recipes. . .

Faux Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1398.0 10.0 0.7%
Eurostoxx Index 2392.54 19.24 .8%
Oil (WTI) 100.31 -1.35 -1.33%
LIBOR 0.4692 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.046 0.268 0.34%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.055% -0.105%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 170.92 0.3

Almost all markets are closed today except for the USD fixed income market, so all Vital Statistics numbers are actually from yesterday’s close, except for the the 10y treasury yield.

Labor statistics came out this morning at 8:30. Change in non-farm payrolls came in at a very disappointing 120k (205k expected) with only a minor revision upward for last month, up 13k to 240k. Manufacturing jobs were up 37k, higher than expected (20k), and the unemployment rate fell again to 8.2% from last month’s 8.3%. But overall the numbers were very disappointing, which was reflected in the reaction of the only market open for trading.

Interesting price action on the treasuries right before today’s employment data came out. After closing yesterday at a yield of around 2.17%, the 10yr note hit 2.24% about 2 minutes before the numbers were released, and then with the disappointing employment data, the market rallied tremendously, and is now at 2.05%. The markets are somewhat illiquid with Europe on holiday and even a lot of the US market taking Good Friday off, so that can explain some of the large movement. Not a lot of people around to cover the large amount of buying after the number. But still the market seems to be hoping for, and betting on, some form of QE III, despite the minutes from last month’s Fed meeting ostensibly quelling that possibilty.

Futures markets close in about 5 minutes (11:15 EST) and the bonds will close by 1pm. So the day is pretty much over now. Europe is closed on Monday as well, so it will be interesting to see how the Euroean markets react on Tuesday to the violent move in US after a 4 day layoff. But Sunday night in Asia and then Monday morning should give us some idea if this rally is a bit overdone or if the market really is intent on seeing sub 2.00% yields again on the 10yr.

Happy Easter and Happy Passover to all who celebrate those things. To the rest…it’s looking like golfing weather is finally here.

The First Amendment and the Military

From the NYT today: Military Board Says Marine Who Criticized President Obama Should Be Dismissed

A military board has recommended dismissal for a Marine sergeant who criticized President Barack Obama on his Facebook page, including allegedly putting the president’s face on a “Jackass” movie poster.

The Marine Corps administrative board said after a daylong hearing late Thursday at Camp Pendleton that Sgt. Gary Stein has committed misconduct and should be dismissed.

The board also recommended that Stein be given an other-then-honorable discharge. That would mean Stein would lose his benefits and would not be allowed on any military base.

The board’s recommendations go to a general who will either accept or deny them. If the general disagrees with the board, the case could go to the secretary of the Navy.

Stein’s lawyers argued that the 9-year Marine, whose service was to end in four months, was expressing his personal views and exercising his First Amendment

Can the military legitimately restrict the rights of free expression of those who choose to be in the military, particularly with regard to criticism of the president? I am inclined to think that it can, especially because enrollment in the military is voluntary, and respect for the chain of command, which the president himself heads, is an important part of military culture. But I am curious what those who have been in the military actually think.

Bits & Pieces (Lulu’s Birthday Edition)

Today is our very own lms’s birthday!

Today is also Agnetha Fältskog’s [Anna Ulvaeus] birthday from the group ABBA, so with that in mind. . .

ABBA’s Benny and Bjorn sing Happy Birthday

hoppy birdies, lms!

Mark adds the recipe for traditional Italian Jewish Passover Seder soup, which is somewhat different than northern European Jewish Matzoh ball soup:

Minestra di riso per pesach from Edda Servi

As Edda Servi Machlin notes, though the Ashkenazim consider rice chametz, Italkim do not; this is thus the Italian equivalent of matza ball soup and is served at the Seder. It includes meatballs made from chicken breast and immature chicken eggs, which she suggests be substituted with hard-boiled eggs as they are hard to find. To serve 8:
Prep Time: 30 minutes

Cook Time: 20 minutes

Total Time: 50 minutes

Ingredients:

A whole chicken breast, boned
An egg, lightly beaten
1/4 cup matza meal
1/2 teaspoon salt
A pinch of nutmeg or cinnamon
2 1/2 quarts chicken broth
1/2 cup (100 g) uncooked rice
8 small hard-boiled eggs
Preparation:

Grind the chicken breast. Lightly beat the egg and combine it with the matza meal and 2 tablespoons of the chicken broth. Combine the ground chicken breast and the matza mixture, salt, and spice, and mix thoroughly. Chill the mixture for 15 minutes; in the meantime peel the eggs, discarding the whites, and bring your soup stock to a boil.

Make meatballs no larger than the yolks. Add them and the rice to the soup, and simmer for 15-20 minutes. Place a yolk in each of the soup bowls, ladle the soup over it, and serve.

Happy Penguin Birthday!

 

Republican War on Women (RWoW)

This deserves a thread of its own.

Google the phrase.

  1. Top 10 Shocking Attacks from the GOP’s War on Women

    pol.moveon.org/waronwomen/

    Stop the Republican War on Women. Redefining rape. Attacking the right to choose. Belitting victims of violence. The Republicans are on a rampage attacking 

This is quite clearly a freighted political catchphrase, intended so by sources like MoveOn and HuffPo.  Like the “War on Drugs” and the “War on Terror” it is intended to limit discussion of issues based on impugning motives.  Scott has been trying to make that point.

If we could define the Republican War on Women as the sum of these actions:

a failed conservative move to cut off U.S. government aid to Planned Parenthood + the Komen decision, since reversed + the attempted but failed roll back of contraception under employer health plans + the all male panel called to testify + the G’town student who was called a “slut” by Limbaugh + Santorum’s money guy’s “aspirin between the knees” comment + the vaginal insert sonogram, since abandoned in VA + the R opposition to extending the funding under the Violence against Women Act + personhood laws (thanks, Ashot), we could probably still talk about the cumulation without calling it war.

We could see it as R strategy to appeal to a fundamentalist base, that has become a bolder strategy as more and more of the active voting base of Rs claim fundamentalist religious principles, which often go far beyond the antipathy to abortion that many non-fundamentalists share.  We could see that fundamentalist faith actually does put women in a secondary role – this is true in all the Abrahamic religions.

We could see that some of the individual issues that have been tarred as part of the RWoW don’t derive their impetus from pandering to fundamentalist religion.  For example, some may derive from the desire to cut the budget.

We would not be surprised that moderate women would have no sympathy for any of the items I listed, and would be moving away from the Rs, unless some other set of issues took priority for them.

IMHO,  resisting the shorthand RWoW is worthwhile just in order to keep the issue conversation alive.  I think the same is true of other uses of the word “war” in a catchphrase intended to inflame emotions – like the WoD and the WoT.  It also cheapens the meaning of the word, fwiw.