Morning Report – HARP 3.0 may face a steep climb 7/25/13

Vital Statistics:

 

Last

Change

Percent

S&P Futures 

1678.3

-5.5

-0.33%

Eurostoxx Index

2728.3

-24.0

-0.87%

Oil (WTI)

104.6

-0.8

-0.77%

LIBOR

0.264

-0.001

-0.19%

US Dollar Index (DXY)

82.06

-0.230

-0.28%

10 Year Govt Bond Yield

2.59%

0.01%

 

Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA

104.2

-0.2

 

Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA

103.7

0.0

 

RPX Composite Real Estate Index

200.7

-0.2

 

BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

4.39

   

 

Markets are lower in spite of some strong earnings reports and a decent durable goods report. Initial Jobless claims were 343k. Bonds and MBS are down small / flat.

 

Mortgage REIT Hatteras Financial released earnings yesterday, and reported a 20% drop in book value. Hatteras invests in agency ARM product, so it is on the slightly more esoteric side, but they made one interesting observation: The MBS market (and the 7/1 ARM market in particular) suffered a powerful sell-off in the last two weeks of June, and has yet to bounce back. So it wasn’t simply end-of-quarter liquidation. What does this mean for us? That non-QE supported MBS spreads are finding new levels. What does that mean in English? That once QE ends, we may find the TBA market experiencing the same thing – a permanent increase in spreads, which means higher rates, even if the 10 year bond doesn’t move. Make hay now….

 

More than half the mortgage modified in 2009 under the Home Affordability Modification Program (HAMP) have defaulted, according to a report from the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (SIGTARP). This report will certainly make a push for HARP 3.0 even more difficult. Interesting fact: of the $38.5 billion allocated to housing support programs in 2009, only 22% (or about $8.6 billion) has even been spent. 

 

The Detroit bankruptcy is going to be interesting for municipal bonds, especially GOs (general obligations). There are two types of muni bonds – revenue bonds, where the principal and interest is paid for by some project (like a bridge) and general obligation bonds, where interest is paid for out of general revenues. Liquidity in munis is terrible to begin with – banks won’t hold them as inventory because they aren’t allowed to take the tax deduction on the interest payments, so nobody will make a market in them. Retail holders of these bonds may find themselves unable to sell. If banks won’t buy them, then who will buy these things? Hedge funds, who are buying them with an eye towards going to the mat in bankruptcy court. And they aren’t paying par. They probably care in the 40s.

Morning Report – Washington has a “eureka” moment 7/24/13

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1693.5 5.2 0.31%
Eurostoxx Index 2756.0 33.1 1.22%
Oil (WTI) 106.8 -0.4 -0.36%
LIBOR 0.264 -0.002 -0.60%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.99 0.043 0.05%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.57% 0.07%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.4 0.0  
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.8 -0.3  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2  
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.3    

Markets are higher this morning after a good earnings report out of Apple. Bonds are again victims of the risk-on trade.

 
Michael Dell and Silver Lake boosted their buyout offer for Dell by ten cents to $13.75. It is their best and final offer. Dude, you’re getting a dime.
 
Mortgage Applications fell 1.2% last week. Purchase apps were down 2.1%, while refis were more or less flat. Refi volume has dropped to 63% of total applications. The conventional index rose about 60 bps, while the govvie index dropped 7%.
 
The U.S. taxpayer bears the credit risk of roughly half the U.S. mortgage market and 90% of all new origination. In a true “eureka” moment, the braintrust in Washington may have finally figured out that the problem is not that they haven’t slugged the banks hard enough. There is a proposal to relax the “skin in the game” rules for private label securitizations in the hopes that something other than 60% LTV / 740 FICO jumbos can be securitized in the future. The original rule was that banks would have to maintain 5% of all MBS they securitize, unless the LTV was lower than 80%. Now, they propose to require a 5% holding only for IO and stated income products. Never mind that IO and stated income are outside of the QM rules and very few market participants are willing to take non-QM risk.
 
The ARM is coming back

Morning Report – FHFA House Price Index rises 7.3% YOY 7/23/13

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1692.7 2.4 0.14%
Eurostoxx Index 2739.6 14.2 0.52%
Oil (WTI) 105.8 -1.1 -1.06%
LIBOR 0.266 0.001 0.45%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.28 0.058 0.07%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.52% 0.04%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.6 -0.2  
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.1 -0.2  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2  
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.3    

 

Markets are slightly higher on a mixed bag of earnings and emerging Asia strength. Bonds and MBS are victims of the risk on trade.
 
The FHFA House Price Index rose .7% in May, and about 7.3% year-over-year. The FHFA House Price index is based on houses that have a conforming mortgage attached to it, so it eliminates the highly distressed sales and the high end of the market. This makes it more of a “central tendency” index than Case-Schiller. We are still seeing a wide geographical dispersion of increases, with the East Coast lagging while the West Coast is hitting big numbers.
 

 
Fannie Mae is predicting that mortgage rate will average 4.7% in Q4, about 40 basis points higher than their June forecast. They are predicting 2013 GDP will come in around 2% and will hit 2.6% in 2015. Home Sales are forecast to increase 8% in 2013. While they have yet to adjust sales forecasts to the new interest rate regime, they are watching it closely.
 
Professional (read cash) investors are stepping away from the real estate market as prices continue to rise. Investor traffic fell in June for the fourth straight month. Perhaps rising prices are to blame, but perhaps private equity and hedge funds are realizing that achieving high single-digit rental yields is harder than it looks and takes more than a couple smart guys out of New York to make it happen.

 

Morning Report – NVR earnings 7/22/13

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1690.5 1.0 0.06%
Eurostoxx Index 2718.7 2.5 0.09%
Oil (WTI) 108.5 0.4 0.37%
LIBOR 0.265 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.35 -0.254 -0.31%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.47% -0.01%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.6 0.0  
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.2 -0.3  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2  
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.35    

 

Markets are flat on no real news. Earnings season swings into full gear this week with an assortment of heavyweights. Bonds and MBS are flat.
 
Homebuilder NVR has released earnings. Looks like they were light on the bottom line, but there was a special charge. New orders increased 25%. Revenues increased 31%. NVR is east-coast focused, so it is lagging some of the West-Coast builders. Later this week, we will hear from Pulte, Standard Pacific, and D.R. Horton. It will be interesting to hear how traffic has been affected by the increase in rates.
 
Bill Gross thinks the Fed won’t raise the Fed funds rate until 2016 at the earliest.. Of course he is talking his book, but still… Interest rate cycles are very long.. This chart comes courtesy of Barry Ritholz, with long term interest rates going back to 1790. Note that from 1930 through 1960 we also had a period of exceptionally low interest rates. 
 

 
While it is probably a very nichey product, you can buy a house for your elderly parents or college student and not have it treated as a garden-variety investment property. Fannie Mae has a program for people who want to purchase a home for a family member and don’t have the money for a downpayment. Just another arrow in your quiver, LOs.

This is Insane.

New York Times
July 20, 2013
A Shuffle of Aluminum, but to Banks, Pure Gold
By DAVID KOCIENIEWSKI

MOUNT CLEMENS, Mich. — Hundreds of millions of times a day, thirsty Americans open a can of soda, beer or juice. And every time they do it, they pay a fraction of a penny more because of a shrewd maneuver by Goldman Sachs and other financial players that ultimately costs consumers billions of dollars.

The story of how this works begins in 27 industrial warehouses in the Detroit area where a Goldman subsidiary stores customers’ aluminum. Each day, a fleet of trucks shuffles 1,500-pound bars of the metal among the warehouses. Two or three times a day, sometimes more, the drivers make the same circuits. They load in one warehouse. They unload in another. And then they do it again.

This industrial dance has been choreographed by Goldman to exploit pricing regulations set up by an overseas commodities exchange, an investigation by The New York Times has found. The back-and-forth lengthens the storage time. And that adds many millions a year to the coffers of Goldman, which owns the warehouses and charges rent to store the metal. It also increases prices paid by manufacturers and consumers across the country.

Tyler Clay, a forklift driver who worked at the Goldman warehouses until early this year, called the process “a merry-go-round of metal.”

Only a tenth of a cent or so of an aluminum can’s purchase price can be traced back to the strategy. But multiply that amount by the 90 billion aluminum cans consumed in the United States each year — and add the tons of aluminum used in things like cars, electronics and house siding — and the efforts by Goldman and other financial players has cost American consumers more than $5 billion over the last three years, say former industry executives, analysts and consultants.

The inflated aluminum pricing is just one way that Wall Street is flexing its financial muscle and capitalizing on loosened federal regulations to sway a variety of commodities markets, according to financial records, regulatory documents and interviews with people involved in the activities.

The maneuvering in markets for oil, wheat, cotton, coffee and more have brought billions in profits to investment banks like Goldman, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, while forcing consumers to pay more every time they fill up a gas tank, flick on a light switch, open a beer or buy a cellphone. In the last year, federal authorities have accused three banks, including JPMorgan, of rigging electricity prices, and last week JPMorgan was trying to reach a settlement that could cost it $500 million.

Using special exemptions granted by the Federal Reserve Bank and relaxed regulations approved by Congress, the banks have bought huge swaths of infrastructure used to store commodities and deliver them to consumers — from pipelines and refineries in Oklahoma, Louisiana and Texas; to fleets of more than 100 double-hulled oil tankers at sea around the globe; to companies that control operations at major ports like Oakland, Calif., and Seattle.

In the case of aluminum, Goldman bought Metro International Trade Services, one of the country’s biggest storers of the metal. More than a quarter of the supply of aluminum available on the market is kept in the company’s Detroit-area warehouses.

Before Goldman bought Metro International three years ago, warehouse customers used to wait an average of six weeks for their purchases to be located, retrieved by forklift and delivered to factories. But now that Goldman owns the company, the wait has grown more than 20-fold — to more than 16 months, according to industry records.

Longer waits might be written off as an aggravation, but they also make aluminum more expensive nearly everywhere in the country because of the arcane formula used to determine the cost of the metal on the spot market. The delays are so acute that Coca-Cola and many other manufacturers avoid buying aluminum stored here. Nonetheless, they still pay the higher price.

Goldman Sachs says it complies with all industry standards, which are set by the London Metal Exchange, and there is no suggestion that these activities violate any laws or regulations. Metro International, which declined to comment for this article, in the past has attributed the delays to logistical problems, including a shortage of trucks and forklift drivers, and the administrative complications of tracking so much metal. But interviews with several current and former Metro employees, as well as someone with direct knowledge of the company’s business plan, suggest the longer waiting times are part of the company’s strategy and help Goldman increase its profits from the warehouses.

Metro International holds nearly 1.5 million tons of aluminum in its Detroit facilities, but industry rules require that all that metal cannot simply sit in a warehouse forever. At least 3,000 tons of that metal must be moved out each day. But nearly all of the metal that Metro moves is not delivered to customers, according to the interviews. Instead, it is shuttled from one warehouse to another.

Because Metro International charges rent each day for the stored metal, the long queues caused by shifting aluminum among its facilities means larger profits for Goldman. And because storage cost is a major component of the “premium” added to the price of all aluminum sold on the spot market, the delays mean higher prices for nearly everyone, even though most of the metal never passes through one of Goldman’s warehouses.

Aluminum industry analysts say that the lengthy delays at Metro International since Goldman took over are a major reason the premium on all aluminum sold in the spot market has doubled since 2010. The result is an additional cost of about $2 for the 35 pounds of aluminum used to manufacture 1,000 beverage cans, investment analysts say, and about $12 for the 200 pounds of aluminum in the average American-made car.

“It’s a totally artificial cost,” said one of them, Jorge Vazquez, managing director at Harbor Aluminum Intelligence, a commodities consulting firm. “It’s a drag on the economy. Everyone pays for it.”

Metro officials have said they are simply reacting to market forces, and on the company Web site describe their role as “bringing together metal producers, traders and end users,” and helping the exchange “create and maintain stability.”

But the London Metal Exchange, which oversees 719 warehouses around the globe, has not always been an impartial arbiter — it receives 1 percent of the rent collected by its warehouses worldwide. Until last year, it was owned by members, including Goldman, Barclays and Citigroup. Many of its regulations were drawn up by the exchange’s warehouse committee, which is made up of executives of various banks, trading companies and storage companies — including the president of Goldman’s Metro International — as well as representatives of powerful trading firms in Europe. The exchange was sold last year to a group of Hong Kong investors and this month it proposed regulations that would take effect in April 2014 intended to reduce the bottlenecks at Metro.

All of this could come to an end if the Federal Reserve Board declines to extend the exemptions that allowed Goldman and Morgan Stanley to make major investments in nonfinancial businesses — although there are indications in Washington that the Fed will let the arrangement stand. Wall Street banks, meanwhile, have focused their attention on another commodity. After a sustained lobbying effort, the Securities and Exchange Commission late last year approved a plan that will allow JPMorgan Chase, Goldman and BlackRock to buy up to 80 percent of the copper available on the market.

In filings with the S.E.C., Goldman has said it plans by early next year to store copper in the same Detroit-area warehouses where it now stockpiles aluminum. On Saturday, however, Michael DuVally, a Goldman spokesman, said the company had decided not to participate in the copper venture, though it had not disclosed that publicly. He declined to elaborate.

Banks as Traders

For much of the last century, Congress tried to keep a wall between banking and commerce. Banks were forbidden from owning nonfinancial businesses (and vice versa) to minimize the risks they take and, ultimately, to protect depositors. Congress strengthened those regulations in the 1950s, but by the 1980s, a wave of deregulation began to build and banks have in some cases been transformed into merchants, according to Saule T. Omarova, a law professor at the University of North Carolina and expert in regulation of financial institutions. Goldman and other firms won regulatory approval to buy companies that traded in oil and other commodities. Other restrictions were weakened or eliminated during the 1990s, when some banks were allowed to expand into storing and transporting commodities.

Over the past decade, a handful of bank holding companies have sought and received approval from the Federal Reserve to buy physical commodity trading assets.

According to public documents in an application filed by JPMorgan Chase, the Fed said such arrangements would be approved only if they posed no risk to the banking system and could “reasonably be expected to produce benefits to the public, such as greater convenience, increased competition, or gains in efficiency, that outweigh possible adverse effects, such as undue concentration of resources, decreased or unfair competition, conflicts of interests, or unsound banking practices.”

By controlling warehouses, pipelines and ports, banks gain valuable market intelligence, investment analysts say. That, in turn, can give them an edge when trading commodities. In the stock market, such an arrangement might be seen as a conflict of interest — or even insider trading. But in the commodities market, it is perfectly legal.

“Information is worth money in the trading world and in commodities, the only way you get it is by being in the physical market,” said Jason Schenker, president and chief economist at Prestige Economics in Austin, Tex. “So financial institutions that engage in commodities trading have a huge advantage because their ownership of physical assets gives them insight in physical flows of commodities.”

Some investors and analysts say that the banks have helped consumers by spurring investment and making markets more efficient. But even banks have, at times, acknowledged that Wall Street’s activities in the commodities market during the last decade have contributed to some price increases.

In 2011, for instance, an internal Goldman memo suggested that speculation by investors accounted for about a third of the price of a barrel of oil. A commissioner at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal regulator, subsequently used that estimate to calculate that speculation added about $10 per fill-up for the average American driver. Other experts have put the total, combined cost at $200 billion a year.

High Premiums

The entrance to one of Metro International’s main aluminum warehouses here in suburban Detroit is unmarked except for one toppling sign that displays two words: Mount Clemens, the town’s name.

Most days, there are just a handful of cars in the parking lot during the day shift, and by 5 p.m., both the parking lot and guard station often appear empty, neighbors say. Yet inside the two cavernous blue warehouses are rows and rows of huge metal bars, weighing more than half a ton each, stacked 15 feet high.

After Goldman bought the company in 2010, Metro International began to attract a stockpile. It actually began paying a hefty incentive to traders who stored their aluminum in the warehouses. As the hoard of aluminum grew — from 50,000 tons in 2008 to 850,000 in 2010 to nearly 1.5 million currently — so did the wait times to retrieve metal and the premium added to the base price. By the summer of 2011, the price spikes prompted Coca-Cola to complain to the industry overseer, the London Metal Exchange, that Metro’s delays were to blame.

Martin Abbott, the head of the exchange, said at the time that he did not believe that the warehouse delays were causing the problem. But the group tried to quiet the furor by imposing new regulations that doubled the amount of metal that the warehouses are required to ship each day — from 1,500 tons to 3,000 tons. But few metal traders or manufacturers believed that the move would settle the issue.

“The move is too little and too late to have a material effect in the near-term on an already very tight physical market, particularly in the U.S.,” Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note to investors that summer.

Still, the wait times at Metro have grown, causing the premium to rise further. Current and former employees at Metro say those delays are by design.

Industry analysts and company insiders say that the vast majority of the aluminum being moved around Metro’s warehouses is owned not by manufacturers or wholesalers, but by banks, hedge funds and traders. They buy caches of aluminum in financing deals. Once those deals end and their metal makes it through the queue, the owners can choose to renew them, a process known as rewarranting.

To encourage aluminum speculators to renew their leases, Metro offers some clients incentives of up to $230 a ton, and usually moves their metal from one warehouse to another, according to industry analysts and current and former company employees.

To metal owners, the incentives mean cash upfront and the chance to make more profit if the premiums increase. To Metro, it keeps the delays long, allowing the company to continue charging a daily rent of 48 cents a ton. Goldman bought the company for $550 million in 2010 and at current rates could collect about a quarter-billion dollars a year in rent.

Metro officials declined to discuss specifics about its lease renewals or incentive policies.

But metal analysts, like Mr. Vazquez at Harbor Aluminum Intelligence, estimate that 90 percent or more of the metal moved at Metro each day goes to another warehouse to play the same game. That figure was confirmed by current and former employees familiar with Metro’s books, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of company policy.

Goldman Sachs declined to discuss details of its operations. Mr. DuVally, the Goldman spokesman, pointed out that the London Metal Exchange prohibits warehouse companies from owning metal, so all of the aluminum being loaded and unloaded by Metro was being stored and shipped for other owners.

“In fact,” he said, “L.M.E. warehouses are actually prohibited from trading all L.M.E. products.”

As the delays have grown, many manufacturers have turned elsewhere to buy their aluminum, often buying it directly from mining or refining companies and bypassing the warehouses completely. Even then, though, the warehouse delays add to manufacturers’ costs, because they increase the premium that is added to the price of all aluminum sold on the open market.

The Warehouse Dance

On the warehouse floor, the arrangement makes for a peculiar workday, employees say.

Despite the persistent backlogs, many Metro warehouses operate only one shift and usually sit idle 12 or more hours a day. In a town like Detroit, where factories routinely operate round the clock when necessary, warehouse workers say that low-key pace is uncommon.

When they do work, forklift drivers say, there is much more urgency moving aluminum into, and among, the warehouses than shipping it out. Mr. Clay, the forklift driver, who worked at the Mount Clemens warehouse until February, said that while aluminum was delivered in huge loads by rail car, it left in a relative trickle by truck.

“They’d keep loading up the warehouses and every now and then, when one was totally full they’d shut it down and send the drivers over here to try and fill another one up,” said Mr. Clay, 23.

Because much of the aluminum is simply moved from one Metro facility to another, warehouse workers said they routinely saw the same truck drivers making three or more round trips each day. Anthony Stuart, a forklift team leader at the Mount Clemens warehouse until 2012, said he and his nephew — who worked at a Metro warehouse about six miles away in Chesterfield Township — occasionally asked drivers to pass messages back and forth between them.

“Sometimes I’d talk to my nephew on the weekend, and we’d joke about it,” Mr. Stuart said. “I’d ask him ‘Did you get all that metal we sent you?’ And he’d tell; me ‘Yep. Did you get all that stuff we sent you?’ ”

Mr. Stuart said he also scoffed at Metro’s contention that a major cause for the monthslong delays is the difficulty in locating each customer’s store of metal and moving the other huge bars of aluminum to get at it. When he arrived at work each day, Mr. Stuart’s job was to locate and retrieve specific batches of aluminum from the vast stores in the warehouse and set them out to be loaded onto trucks.

“It’s all in rows,” he said. “You can find and get anything in a day if you want. And if you’re in a hurry, a couple of hours at the very most.”

When the London Metal Exchange was sold to a Hong Kong company for $2.2 billion last year, its chief executive promised to take “a bazooka” to the problem of long wait times.

But the new owner of the exchange has balked at adopting a remedy raised by a consultant hired to study the problem in 2010: limit the rent warehouses can collect during the backlogs. The exchange receives 1 percent of the rent collected by the warehouses, so such a step would cost it millions in revenue.

Other aluminum users have pressed the exchange to prohibit warehouses from providing incentives to those that are simply stockpiling the metal, but the exchange has not done so.

Last month, however, after complaints by a consortium of beer brewers, the exchange proposed new rules that would require warehouses to ship more metal than they take in. But some financial firms have raised objections to those new regulations, which they contend may hurt traders and aluminum producers. The exchange board will vote on the proposal in October and, if approved, it would not take effect until April 2014.

Nick Madden, chief procurement officer for one of the nation’s largest aluminum purchasers, Novelis, said the situation illustrated the perils of allowing industries to regulate themselves. Mr. Madden said that the exchange had for years tolerated delays and high premiums, so its new proposals, while encouraging, were still a long way from solving the problem. “We’re relieved that the L.M.E. is finally taking an action that ultimately will help the market and normalize,” he said. “However, we’re going to take another year of inflated premiums and supply chain risk.”

In the meantime, the Federal Reserve, which regulates Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and other banks, is reviewing the exemptions that have let banks make major investments in commodities. Some of those exemptions are set to expire, but the Fed appears to have no plans to require the banks to sell their storage facilities and other commodity infrastructure assets, according to people briefed on the issue.

A Fed spokeswoman, Barbara Hagenbaugh, provided the following statement: “The Federal Reserve regularly monitors the commodity activities of supervised firms and is reviewing the 2003 determination that certain commodity activities are complementary to financial activities and thus permissible for bank holding companies.”

Senator Sherrod Brown, who is sponsoring Congressional hearings on Tuesday on Wall Street’s ownership of warehouses, pipelines and other commodity-related assets, says he hopes the Fed reins in the banks.

“Banks should be banks, not oil companies,” said Mr. Brown, Democrat of Ohio. “They should make loans, not manipulate the markets to drive up prices for manufacturers and expose our entire financial system to undue risk.”

Next Up: Copper

As Goldman has benefited from its wildly lucrative foray into the aluminum market, JPMorgan has been moving ahead with plans to establish its own profit center involving an even more crucial metal: copper, an industrial commodity that is so widely used in homes, electronics, cars and other products that many economists track it as a barometer for the global economy.

In 2010, JPMorgan quietly embarked on a huge buying spree in the copper market. Within weeks — by the time it had been identified as the mystery buyer — the bank had amassed $1.5 billion in copper, more than half of the available amount held in all of the warehouses on the exchange. Copper prices spiked in response.

At the same time, JPMorgan, which also controls metal warehouses, began seeking approval of a plan that would ultimately allow it, Goldman Sachs and BlackRock, a large money management firm, to buy 80 percent of the copper available on the market on behalf of investors and hold it in warehouses. The firms have told regulators that these stockpiles, which would be used to back new copper exchange-traded funds, would not affect copper prices. But manufacturers and copper wholesalers warned that the arrangement would squeeze the market and send prices soaring. They asked the S.E.C. to reject the proposal.

After an intensive lobbying campaign by the banks, Mary L. Schapiro, the S.E.C.’s chairwoman, approved the new copper funds last December, during her final days in office. S.E.C. officials said they believed the funds would track the price of copper, not propel it, and concurred with the firms’ contention — disputed by some economists — that reducing the amount of copper on the market would not drive up prices.

Others now fear that Wall Street banks will repeat or revise the tactics that have run up prices in the aluminum market. Such an outcome, they caution, would ripple through the economy. Consumers would end up paying more for goods as varied as home plumbing equipment, autos, cellphones and flat-screen televisions.

Robert Bernstein, a lawyer at Eaton & Van Winkle, who represents companies that use copper, said that his clients were fearful of “an investor-financed squeeze” of the copper market. “We think the S.E.C. missed the evidence,” he said.

Gretchen Morgenson contributed reporting from New York. Alain Delaquérière contributed research from New York.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: July 20, 2013

A previous version of this article misstated one of the financial institutions that received approval to buy up to 80 percent of the copper available on the market. It is BlackRock, not the Blackstone Group.

Morning Report – liquidity is drying up in the TBAs 7/19/13

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1679.7 -0.9 -0.05%
Eurostoxx Index 2716.0 -2.0 -0.07%
Oil (WTI) 109 1.0 0.90%
LIBOR 0.265 -0.002 -0.56%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.68 -0.140 -0.17%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.52% -0.01%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.2 -0.2  
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.9 0.0  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.8 -0.2  
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.37    

 

Markets are weaker this morning after a mixed bag of earnings. GE beat, while Mr Softee missed by a country mile. There is no economic data this morning. Bonds and MBS are flat / down small.
 
Liquidity has been drying up in the TBA market, with bid / ask spreads increasing to 7 ticks on the higher coupons. Yesterday, just over $3.2 billion worth of TBA traded, which made it the second lowest volume day of 2013. What does this mean for you? Thin markets can be volatile. We will likely see more re-prices during the day, and aggregators will fade their bids to account for lousier execution on their hedges. 
 
Ever wonder how the government sets G-fees? Well, here ya go..
 
Wonkish piece, but sheds light on the labor force participation rate and why it isn’t coming back to previous levels. This has implications for the Fed, in that it won’t take much in the way of job growth to keep moving unemployment levels to where the Fed will start thinking about tightening. While the Fed pledges to use a holistic approach, we could be getting to 6.5% unemployment the hard way. Which means, don’t expect super robust recovery – the population is aging and that is a drag on growth and spending.

 

Morning Report – Day 2 of testimony 7/18/13

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1677.3 1.7 0.10%
Eurostoxx Index 2685.2 3.3 0.12%
Oil (WTI) 106.7 0.3 0.23%
LIBOR 0.266 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.87 0.160 0.19%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.49% 0.00%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.6 4.8  
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104 0.3  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 201.1 -0.5  
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.35    

Markets are flattish ahead of Day 2 of Ben Bernanke’s testimony. Initial Jobless Claims dropped back to 334k after spiking to 358k the weak before. Bonds and MBS are flat. In earnings, Intel and Ebay missed, while Morgan Stanley beat.

 

The Bernank goes in front of the Senate this morning at 10:30. Most of the newsworthy tidbits should have been released yesterday, but be aware – rates could get volatile. 
 
The Senate Banking Committee is expected to vote on Mel Watt to head FHFA. If he gets nominated, expect the government to start forgiving principal on underwater conforming loans and probably HARP 3.0. Watt is an affordable housing guy who will push for loan forgiveness and easier access to credit for low-income borrowers. Maybe the refi boom will have one last gasp.
 
Most of Bernanke’s testimony was old news, but there were some new revelations. The biggest one is that the Fed intends to roll over maturing MBS into new MBS even after QE ends. There was a fear that the Fed would sell their holdings. So that should put downward pressure on mortgage rates. Second, Bernanke said that as long as inflation is below their target rate, the Fed Funds rate is going nowhere. Finally, he mentioned de-leveraging as one of the main reasons why rates shot up so much. There has been a suspicion in the market that the carry trade was the real target. 

 

Morning Report – A softening on QE tapering? 7/17/13

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1677.5 6.3 0.38%
Eurostoxx Index 2685.7 20.0 0.75%
Oil (WTI) 106 0.0 -0.04%
LIBOR 0.266 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.5 -0.002 0.00%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.47% -0.06%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.4 -1.1  
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.2 0.4  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 201.6 -0.9  
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.48    

 

Markets are higher this morning after good earnings out of Bank of America. Mortgage Applications fell 2.6% last week, a surprise given that rates fell. Bonds and MBS are up. The initial reaction to the prepared remarks is positive.
 
Today is Bernanke’s semiannual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony in front of Congress, which begins at 10:00. The first thing to note is that this can be market moving, so don’t be surprised if we get some volatility around rates. The burning questions concern the end of QE, although expect a lot of Congressional questions on banking regulation and Too Big To Fail. The prepared remarks are here.
 
The comment that seems to have everyone buying bonds is the statement that ending quantitative easing is “not on a preset course.” Remember that was what hit the markets so hard the last time Bernanke spoke in front of Congress – he implied that the Fed expects unemployment to fall to 7% by the end of the year, and if the economy performs as expected, they will begin tapering QE this year. This statement seems to be a softening of that stance. This has pushed the 10 year to 2.47%.
 
Housing starts came in at a disappointing 836,000 annual pace. Building Permits fell as well. When you look at the internals, it was multi-fam which drove the decrease. Single family starts dropped by 5k, while 5+ units fell from 322k to 236k. Multi-fam in the South took the biggest hit. May was revised upward. I wouldn’t read too much into this as far as purchase business goes – the weekly MBA purchase application index rose last week, and the homebuilders have been optimistic so far. Also note that homebuilder sentiment hit the highest levels since Jan 2006. 
 
The Senate reached a filibuster deal yesterday, and Richard Cordray was confirmed as head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). Republicans had been holding up the vote in an attempt to force changes to the agency – to make it a bipartisan committee vs a single head and to subject it to the normal Congressional appropriations process. Will it affect anything in our area? I am guessing not.

Morning Report – Affordability remains high 7/16/13

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1676.7 -0.8 -0.05%
Eurostoxx Index 2667.9 -18.8 -0.70%
Oil (WTI) 106.9 0.6 0.55%
LIBOR 0.266 -0.001 -0.52%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.74 -0.299 -0.36%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.54% 0.00%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.2 -1.3  
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.6 0.0  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 202.5 -0.5  
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.45    
Markets are flattish after the consumer price index came in more or less in line with expectations and Goldman beat earnings estimates. Bonds and MBS are flat as we await the Bearded One tomorrow morning.
 
Re Bernanke’s testimony, the Washington Post is saying the Fed will be delaying debate over unwinding QE amid concerns over how the markets will react. One interesting concern, from Richmond Fed Jeffrey Lacker, is that the Fed will experience capital losses on its holdings of mortgage backed securities, and could find itself in a position where it makes no money (or even experiences losses), which will raise public and Congressional scrutiny. Want a proxy for the Fed’s balance sheet?  Take a gander at the chart of Agency Mortgage REIT American Capital (AGNC). They hold a levered portfolio of agency fixed and adjustable rate mortgage backed securities. The stock is down a third since rates started going up in early May.
 

 
Mortgage REITs like AGNC or Annaly (NLY)  are unloading mortgage-backed securities as rates increase. This is largely due to margin requirements, although interest rate hedging plays a part. As the value of their holdings drops, which is what is happening as rates increase, the banks that provide them leverage will demand more capital. The REITs can either raise capital in the private markets (which isn’t going to happen) or they can raise capital by selling their inventory. The thing to remember is that the margin clerk doesn’t care if the mortgage backed securities are overvalued or undervalued. The margin clerk will hit whatever bid is available if the company doesn’t sell the merchandise themselves. That is how you get these air pockets like we had on July 5, where the we set record highs on mortgage rates and the 10 year yields. As mortgage REITs de-lever, you can expect rate volatility. Floating in this environment can be a little hairy. 
 
CoreLogic’s latest Market Pulse makes the argument that in spite of the recent rise in house prices and rates, housing affordability is still elevated compared to historical numbers. They dismiss (as do I) the notion that we are back in a bubble or are even close to one. Bubbles are psychological events where everyone gets this idea that an asset price cannot fall. We will not experience another real estate bubble, although our great-grandkids might. Here is Corelogic’s chart on affordability:
 

 
Based on the weak retail sales numbers yesterday (headline +4% vs expectations of +.8%, ex-autos flat vs expectations of + .5%), a number of sell-side firms took down their 2Q GDP estimates a hair. We will get the preliminary estimate of 2Q GDP in a couple of weeks.
 
Freddie Mac’s mid-year update gives a forecast for the rest of 2013. Punch line: home price appreciation will slow, but remain positive, the labor market will continue the pace of the first half of the year, home sales up 2% and starts up 12% from the first half, and mortgage rates will continue to rise. Will the rise in mortgage rates stall the housing recovery? They anticipate it won’t, because affordability still remains high.

Morning Report – Earnings Season 7/15/13

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1674.0 3.7 0.22%
Eurostoxx Index 2680.7 5.8 0.22%
Oil (WTI) 105 -1.0 -0.92%
LIBOR 0.268 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 83.4 0.416 0.50%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.63% 0.05%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 101.6 0.1  
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 99.95 -0.4  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 203 -0.2  
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.48    

 

Markets are higher on no real news. The NY Empire Manufacturing Survey came in higher than expected, while retail sales were weaker. Citi’s 2Q numbers beat estimates. Bonds and MBS are flattish.
 
Lots of data this week, punctuated by the Bernank’s testimony on Wed in front of the House Financial Services Committee. On Tues, we have the Consumer Price Index; now that QE4EVA is officially done with, inflation numbers are becoming relevant again. We will also get capacity utilization, industrial production, and homebuilder sentiment. Wednesday, we get housing starts and building permits, Thursday is Philly Fed, and Leading Economic Indicators. 
 
Last week’s rally in bonds was probably due to an overshoot on the jobs report after the 4th. We saw the average 30 year mortgage rate hit 4.64% on Friday, July 5 and the 10 year hit 2.74%. It looks like a lot of the Street took a 4 day weekend, so the market was illiquid and you had forced REIT selling in a thin market. While rates can certainly go higher, I would almost put an asterisk on those prices. I would be looking for a trading range in the 10 year of 2.45% – 2.65%. 
 
While earnings season officially started last week, it begins in earnest tomorrow. Heavyweights like Coca Cola, Goldman, American Express, IBM, Intel, Microsoft, Google, and GE will report this week. With the stock market at record highs, it is vulnerable to earnings disappointments. I would expect any sell-off in stocks to be bond bullish, but with the backdrop of ending QE, the effect may be modest.