Climate Change Carried Forward

A long discussion of climate change continues on a two-day old thread, so I figured I would bring it forward and link to this, an article that appeared in yesterday’s WSJ about a project out of Berkeley attempting to clean up the rather messy historical records on temperature.

Calculating a global temperature is necessary to track climate trends because, as your TV meteorologist might warn, local conditions can differ. Much of the U.S. and Northern Europe has cooled in the last 70 years, Berkeley Earth found. So did one-third of all weather stations world-wide, while two-thirds warmed. The project cites this as evidence of overall warming; skeptics aren’t convinced because it depends how concentrated those warming sites are. If they happen to be bunched up while the cooling sites are in sparsely measured areas, then more places could be cooling.

The risk with models is that scientists can become enslaved to one they have chosen, says Mr. McIntyre. “The best antidote is for authors to make all their data available at the time of publication together with scrupulous documentation,” he says, crediting Berkeley Earth with attempting to do this.

The Concept or the Leader? The Substance or the Process?

Occasionally I read a story like THIS.

First, I find these success stories very cheering.  Whether they are about schools, or entrepreneurs, or business organizations, or a governmental program, or charitable efforts, when a comet lights up the firmament I applaud.

Then I wonder.  Was it the idea, itself?  Was it the motivation from the leader?  Was it the substance of what was done or the process by which it was assembled?

AND WHY CAN’T THIS RESULT BE REPLICATED?

Bits & Pieces (Friday Night Tiger Blood Edition)

Winning! I asked yesterday Autotune The News basically rebranded themselves as Songify This. Here’s a much more recent piece: they Autotune Charlie Sheen.

Speaking of news. Epic news fails. Some don’t merit the lead up. Still . . . worth watching once. 
“Dana is off tonight. He was murdered and set on fire while celebrating his birthday!” I’m so glad my job doesn’t involve being on live television.
•••
Some days, I miss Drew Carrey’s take on Whose Line is it, Anyway? 

The Bad Lip Reading people do music videos, too, where they take real music videos, mash ’em up, and write a whole new song. I love this song. I think I’m gonna by the actual song on iTunes. “Morning Dew”.

Have a good evening, my friends. — KW

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1250.6 -5.1 -0.41%
Eurostoxx Index 2336.5 -11.440 -0.49%
Oil (WTI) 94.22 0.150 0.16%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 76.824 0.094 0.12%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.08% 0.01%

Stock Index futures dropped dramatically after the IMF and G20 failed to come to a deal over IMF resources. EURIBOR / OIS (a measure of stress in the European banking system) hit a post-crisis high yesterday, although some of that may have been due to MF Global. LIBOR / OIS (a measure of stress in the US banking system) has been steadily rising since August.

Lots of economic numbers released this morning. The unemployment rate came in at 9.0% vs expectations of 9.1%. October payroll numbers were a touch light, but September numbers were revised higher. Average Hourly earnings and hours in line with expectations. Markets are rallying slightly on the news, as investors focus on the revisions and bet that the disappointing Oct payroll numbers will end up being revised upward in the future.

The MF Global saga is interesting on a number of fronts. At the moment, it appears that $633 million of customer money is missing. Co-mingling customer and firm accounts is a big, basic no-no. In addition, it looks like they moved customer funds around in order to fool the auditors. CEO Jon Corzine has resigned this morning and chosen to forego his severance package. If the Occupy Wall Street really wants a perp walk, here is a golden opportunity. It will be interesting to see if the Obama Administration decides to go after Corzine, a well-respected Democrat. So far, they have exhibited zero interest in going after ex-Clinton Budget Director Franklin Raines who paid himself tens of millions or dollars in salary and bonus based on fraudulent accounting, so I am not optimistic. But hey, you never know.

Bonds & Pieces (Thursday Night Shaken, Not Stirred)

Because, of course, stirring bruises the gin. Or the vodka. Or shaking does. Or Sean Connery just sounds great saying the line.


And thus, to attempt to live up to my title as master of pop culture, it is my duty to inform you that Bond 23 now has a name: Skyfall.
Apparently, the evil environmentalist, Dominic Greene, and Quantum won’t be back as a plot element in Daniel Craig’s 3rd outing as Bond.
Speaking of evil environmentalists, Michael Crichton wrote a rip-roaring action-adventure novel about evil environmentalists in State of Fear. It would make a great movie but, alas, is not likely to ever be a movie, because the bad guys aren’t just a few guys posing as environmentalism, but environmentalists, environmental lawyers, Hollywood environmentalists, etc. These environmentalists are willing to destroy the planet (or big chunks of it) in order to save it, in Crichton’s novel, and the famous environmentalist actor (probably a stand in for Martin Sheen) ends up getting eaten by cannibals. There are a few dry bits where characters become mouthpieces for Crichton’s concerns regarding climate science, but for the most part, it’s good versus evil versus nature in techno-thriller set piece after set piece.
It’s unfortunate that the heavies are clearly environmentalists, and not just poseurs, and that the point is made on multiple occasions that Crichton sees the current state of global warming science as incomplete in some place, and flat out wrong or false in others (with footnotes). Because with the credible passes at weather control, and the use of subsonic deep-cavitation devices to carve off part of an island and create a monsoon to destroy the west coast, cell phones that can attract lightning, and a jeep stuck in a flash flood (not to mention some straight-up hand-to-hand fighting), this movie would surpass Jurassic Park in it’s techno-thrilliness. But it’s never going to happen.
Oddly, another very exciting novel he wrote, Prey, also doesn’t seem destined for the big screen, even though the only bad guys in this case are big corporations and short-sighted scientists taking short cuts to achieve results-for-profit.
Next, his last novel published before his death, may actually make it to the big screen. It’s not bad, but is not nearly as exciting as Prey, or State of Fear.

•••

Mitt Romney makes it clear that he will not stand for Winnona Ryder pissing off people with a guitar, and that he wants a cookie:


Not quite the Rick Perry video, but close.
Whatever happened to Autotune The News? Those things were awesome:

Good evening, all. — KW

This is for quarterback:

— Michigoose

Mark: Have You Seen This Rick Perry Video?

You know, the guy makes a lot of sense.

Buy Here Pay Here

lmsinca brought this up in the post from last night, but it spawned an interesting discussion, so I thought we should link to all three parts of the series.

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Bombs & Pieces (Wednesday Night Smack Talk)

How do you drop bombs from an airplane?

It’s actually quite an interesting engineering problem.

“Gosh, that was loud!”

The British Air Force testing the UK’s first hydrogen bomb.

Miniature nuke set off on a table-top? No, it’s a trick. But good camera tracking.
There ya go! Merry Christmas, everybody!

FOMC rate decision

Link to the Federal Reserve FOMC statement

The Fed has noted the increase in consumer spending that has become apparent in the economic data. This is new. They anticipate moderate economic growth with subdued inflation and slowly declining unemployment levels. The Fed reaffirmed its commitment to maintain low rates through 2013.

Operation Twist will continue, and the Fed intends to continue to maintain its overall exposure to the mortgage market by re-investing cash received from maturing paper. There was no mention of QEIII.

Interestingly, we had a dovish dissent. Charles Evans supported additional monetary policy accomodation at this time. I am sure Barney Frank is preparing a statement condemning dissent at the Fed. /sarcasm.

Overall, markets aren’t reacting to the statement at all. FWIW, I take the official statement that the consumer is returning as bullish for the equity markets.

Racism in the dark corners of one’s soul

Hi all,

This spins off of the recent megathread about the teleprompter and racism. There was a separate discussion amongst a few of us in which a liberal had described Herman Cain as a minstrel. I think that was an ugly comparison, but no more so than some of what I read when Obama was running himself. But that’s not what I’m posting about tonight.

I’d never considered myself to be a racist. I grew up in a proper liberal household. My dad was a professor at a small college (Hastings, Nebraska) and my mom was a speech pathologist. It would be accurate to say that I had a non-racial upbringing in that there wasn’t much racial diversity in Hastings, Nebraska (where I grew up) or Pocatello, Idaho (where I spent my teenage years). The only kid I remember spending time with who wasn’t white was Triet Huen (I’m going phonetic here–Tree-ET, Huyen). He was a Vietnamese immigrant. This would have been around 1976, so I’m guessing his parents left before the end. So, I’m just establishing that my interactions up to going to college were almost exclusively with other white kids.

I had an eye opener the summer after I graduated from college. I went to Macalester College in St. Paul, Minnesota. I wound up renting an apartment for the summer after I graduated with three friends. Two of had just graduated and the other two were between junior and senior years. We rented a place on Marshall Avenue. There’s a striking shift in income within just a few blocks. Summit Avenue is mansions. Marshall, about a half mile to the north, is the “hood”.

Our place on Marshall was just off Victoria, about a half mile from Victoria Crossing, where Victoria crosses Grand Ave. It’s a place with some posh shopping and once had a great book store (Odegards). I particularly liked going to Chocolate & Bread as well as Coffee & Tea, Ltd. In order to get there, one walks about a half mile south on Victoria, past a youth center. Outside the youth center, there would often be a group of young, black men. I felt nervous every time I walked past. Know this. Up to that point, I’d never been assaulted by a black man. [I grew up before African American became proper usage, so I’ll stick with black and white for the purpose of this discussion.] I’d had virtually no interactions. And still, I felt nervous every time I walked by.

Without realizing it, I’d absorbed something in our culture. I know that had it been a dozen white teenagers hanging around outside the center, I wouldn’t have felt nervous. It was solely because of their race. It was an eye opening moment for me.

We all make judgements. We all react to race. I think that is equally true, regardless as to one’s ethnic background. That doesn’t make you or me a racist. In my case, I chose to keep walking past that place (corner of Victoria and Selby) as I refused to give into that visceral reaction. I don’t think that I’m a racist, but I am not immune to racial judgements. The struggle against those judgements is something that I face.

Many years later, I faced a little of what it feels like to be judged. I lived in England for four years as an American. Every so often, I’d be hanging out at the pub and someone would make a crack that made it clear to me that I wasn’t local. That’s only a shadow of what others must feel, but it was a valuable lesson.

Good night to all. And just ’cause….

BB