Shameless Plug

Posted on April 11, 2013 by Brent Nyitray

I started writing for this site as well – http://marketrealist.com/

Free professional investment research for individual investors.  Check it out.

Filed under: Economy, stock market | 15 Comments »

Smoking Gun on Corzine and MF?

Posted on March 25, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Apparently the government thinks so…

Wow, Jon.  You had it all, money and power. And threw it away.

Filed under: stock market | Tagged: | 3 Comments »

Morning Report

Posted on February 15, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1352.7 5.0 0.37%
Eurostoxx Index 2504.6 16.3 0.65%
Oil (WTI) 101.52 0.8 0.77%
LIBOR 0.4951 -0.003 -0.50%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.543 0.159 0.20%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.93% -0.01%

Markets are higher this morning on statements from the Bank of China regarding support for the European bailout and its willingness to help. Concerns about an eventual Greek deal are offsetting some of these gains. Bonds and mortgage backed securities are flat.

Mortgage Loan Delinquencies are increasing again, according to TransUnion. 64% of MSAs reported increases, which was flat compared to Q3, but much higher than Q2.  There are seasonal factors at work here, and the continuing decline in real estate prices are certainly playing a part, but that is not an encouraging data point economically. As if the foreclosure pipeline wasn’t big enough already.

Not that the markets really care, but it looks like we have a payroll tax deal.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at stronger than expected. This is a touchy-feely indicator of general business conditions put out by the New York Fed.  This index is notoriously volatile, so big moves should be taken with a grain of salt, but it shows that the expansion is gaining momentum in New York State.  Separately, industrial production was flat and capacity utilization unexpectedly fell.

The National Association of Home Builders will release their market index at 10:00 am. Residential construction has been the missing piece of the recovery, but has been showing signs of life lately.  Earnings reports from the homebuilders have been constructive.

The FOMC minutes will be released this afternoon. I am very curious to see why the Fed is behaving as if the economy is rolling over, while the data suggest otherwise.

Last, Ezra Klein at the Washington Post has a story on how the World Cup affects trading.  I can attest to this personally, having been a block trader at Bear Stearns in London for a number of years.  When England was playing a match, the phones would stop ringing and everyone had their backs to their screens, watching the match.  You could actually see major stocks like British Petroleum and Vodafone stop trading.  As an American, it was strange to watch.

****EDIT

The National Association of Homebuilders released their market index at 10:00 am.  The index came in better than expected and it looks like conditions are improving at an accelerating rate.

Chart:  NAHB Market Index:

Filed under: Economic data, Federal Reserve, Homebuilding, stock market | 55 Comments »

Morning Report

Posted on January 25, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1307.6 -3.8 -0.29%
Eurostoxx Index 2412.5 -19.590 -0.81%
Oil (WTI) 98.35 -0.600 -0.61%
LIBOR 0.5566 -0.003 -0.45%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.226 0.428 0.54%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.05% -0.01%

Markets are mixed this morning, with the broader indices lower following Europe, and the Nasdaq up on Apple’s earnings.  AAPL is up about 8% pre-market.  Conoco Philips also reported good earnings this morning.   United Rentals reports after the close, which should provide another data point as to the state of the construction industry.  Construction /  Housing has been the achilles heel of this recovery, and if that sector is turning around, the economy could finally be on its way.

I didn’t watch the SOTU last night (I always just read speeches), but it doesn’t sound like there was anything market-moving in it.  Natural Gas is up a little, presumably on the lack of a production target.  The US dollar is stronger this morning and bonds are up 1/3 of a point, presumably on Europe, not necessarily the SOTU.

Perhaps the timing of the robo-signing settlement was not a co-incidence. In the speech last night, Obama laid out a plan for refinancing underwater mortgages.  The fine print will not be available for some time, and it will require Congressional approval.  I have noted in the past that you have to get the originators on board with this plan, and put-back risk is the big hurdle.  Put back risk means the government can decide after the fact that a mortgage violated underwriting standards and can force the originator to buy it back.  Re-financing underwater homes will by definition violate underwriting standards.  The government can tell originators that it will allow underwriting violations for this program, but there is nothing preventing a future administration from changing the rules.  An originator makes exactly the same profit on a 80% LTV loan as they do on a 120% LTV loan.  So why would originators take the additional political risk when the returns are exactly the same?   They won’t.

The FOMC rate decision will be released this afternoon.  I don’t think anyone expects a change in policy, but people will be interested in seeing if the the Fed takes note of the early signs of a turnaround.

Filed under: Earnings Announcements, Economic data, Economy, housing, Morning Report, stock market | Tagged: | 67 Comments »

Morning Report

Posted on January 18, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1292.7 3.4 0.26%
Eurostoxx Index 2397.8 1.190 0.05%
Oil (WTI) 101.93 1.220 1.21%
LIBOR 0.5612 -0.001 -0.20%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.634 -0.480 -0.59%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.85% 0.00%
Futures are up slightly on earnings and a lack of market-moving news out of Europe. Bond geeks will note that EURIBOR / OIS (a measure of stress in the banking system) has been moving lower since the year began. It is at 84 basis points, having dropped from 101 basis points six weeks ago. ECB funding probably explains some of it, but it is a welcome sign and helps explain the more sanguine mood of Mr. Market recently.
Goldman reported better than expected results this morning based on cost cuts. Compensation fell 21% and staff decreased 7%. On cue, William Cohan was on Bloomberg TV this morning complaining that Wall Street comp is still 50% too high. US Bancorp also reported better than expected earnings.
The Producer Price Index came in a little hot, but still subdued. PPI ex food and energy was up .3% MOM and 3.0% YOY. Inflation is still a non-issue as far as the Fed is concerned. Tomorrow will be a big economic day with CPI, Housing Starts and Initial Jobless Claims. No report tomorrow as I will be in the city all day.
EDIT:  More bullish economic data:  Capacity Utilization increased again to 78.1% and the NAHB Homebuilder sentiment index increased to 25, confirming what the homebuilders have been saying on their conference calls.

Filed under: Earnings Announcements, Economic data, Economy, eurozone, Financial Crisis, Homebuilding, Morning Report, stock market, Wall Street | Tagged: | 49 Comments »

Marketing OWS (Sat. Open Thread) unless someone comes up with something better

Posted on October 15, 2011 by lmsinca

We could have some fun with this today. Oct. 15th. is the day OWS, or versions of it, goes global so it’s high time we advertise and capitalize it. I love the stock quotes in there.

A few comments from “hedge fund” and “bankster” types:

Citi’s CEO Vikram Pandit said at a breakfast meeting on Wednesday that he’d be happy to meet with protesters, and he added that their sentiments were “completely understandable,” according to reports by Bloomberg and Fortune magazine.

“Trust has been broken between financial institutions and the citizens of the U.S., and that is Wall Street’s job to reach out to Main Street and rebuild that trust,” Pandit said.

What better way to do it than a corporate sponsorship? Doesn’t “Occupy Wall Street By Citigroup” sound more friendly? And wouldn’t America make a faster comeback if corporations would simply pay people to protest against them?

Bill Gross, co-founder of PIMCO, one of the world’s largest investment firms, put his jingle on Twitter on Tuesday: “Class warfare by the 99%? Of course, they’re fighting back after 30 years of being shot at.”

Bank of America /quotes/zigman/190927/quotes/nls/bac BAC -0.48% : “If you like anarchy and chaos, you’ll love the court filings in our foreclosure cases.”

Samuel Adams /quotes/zigman/131652/quotes/nls/sam SAM +2.02% : “Boston beer: Never as harsh as Boston police.”

Netflix /quotes/zigman/87598/quotes/nls/nflx NFLX -0.83% : “We stopped saying ‘Qwikster.’ You stop should stop staying ‘Bankster.’”

United Airlines /quotes/zigman/617037/quotes/nls/ual UAL -0.72% : “We love people with too much baggage.”

General Electric /quotes/zigman/227468/quotes/nls/ge GE +2.34% : “Thanks for paying your taxes so we don’t have to.”

BP /quotes/zigman/247026/quotes/nls/bp BP +2.92% : “Why does there always have to be this Gulf between us?”

Dr. Pepper /quotes/zigman/507521/quotes/nls/dps DPS +0.25% : “Be a Pepper. Don’t be pepper sprayed.”

Blackberry /quotes/zigman/18534/quotes/nls/rimm RIMM +1.52% : “Could you please try texting whatever it is that you’re so mad about, again.”

Sotheby’s /quotes/zigman/241211/quotes/nls/bid BID +0.70% : “Next time you unwashed hippie activists go barging into to one of our fine auctions, buy something.”

Filed under: OWS, stock market | Tagged: , | 100 Comments »