All Things in Moderation

Vital Statistics:

Stocks are lower after Trump announced a 30 day travel ban from Europe. Bonds and MBS are up.

Initial Jobless Claims came in at 211,000 last week, below expectations. If Coronavirus is going to cause a recession, this will be the first place you see it. So far, it looks like companies are hanging on to their workers. This is key to preventing a recession.

Credit spreads are beginning to widen, however. The banks have been crushed YTD, with Wells down something like 40%, JPM down 30%. We are nowhere near 2008 levels (and probably aren’t heading there), but widening credit spreads are the canary in the coal mine.

Speaking of widening spreads, mortgage backed security spreads are widening. The difference between the implied yield of mortgage backed securities and treasuries is about 150 basis points right now. It was about 110 at the end of February. In a nutshell, this means that mortgage rates right now are about the same as they were when the 10 year was yielding 1%.  If all you watch is the 10 year bond yield indicator on CNBC. It isn’t telling the whole story.

We are entering “oh crap” season, where companies that are going to miss their first quarter earnings expectations disclose it to the market. This could be an opportunity for companies to “kitchen sink” a lot of things as Coronavirus provides an opportunity for them to build in cushion for future earnings releases. In other words, if the Street expects you to make $1.16 in your first quarter earnings, and you are going to come in around $1.12 – $1.13, you might disclose that you will make only $1.10 and take the opportunity to write down a whole bunch of assets and doubtful accounts to create some cushion to make sure they make their numbers going forward. Companies aren’t supposed to do this, but they do. Certainly look for airlines, hotels, banks, consumer discretionaries, and energy to warn on Q1.

Inflation at the wholesale level fell 0.6% MOM in February, and is up 1.3% on a YOY basis. Ex-food and energy it is down 0.3% MOM and up 1.4% YOY. Again, inflation no longer matters to the Fed.

The Fed Funds futures are now predicting a 60% chance cut of 75 bps next week and a 40% chance of a 100 bp cut. Note that the CME indicates that the inter-meeting cut has screwed up the probability graphs, but they don’t quantify it. Oh, by the way, the CME is suspending all open-outcry trading until further notice starting Friday.

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Vital Statistics:

Stocks are after the Bank of England cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Bonds and MBS are up.

Coronavirus update: 120,000 worldwide, cases in the US breaches 1,000. A big pocked in the US centers around Westchester County in New Rochelle.

Washington is working on some sort of fiscal stimulus to support the economy while we deal with the Coronavirus. Republicans are pushing for a payroll tax holiday while Democrats want paid sick leave. They will probably come to some sort of deal. What politician doesn’t like to spend money in an election year, especially with an excuse as bulletproof as this?

Speaking of politics, Joe Biden is looking more and more like he will be the D nominee.

The MBA has raised its 2020 origination forecast to $2.6 trillion from $2.1 trillion. 2019 volume was $2.2 trillion. Refis are forecast to increase to $1.2 trillion, while purchases are expected to come in at 1.4 trillion.  “This month, our forecast is for mortgage rates to average around 3.4 percent for 2020, and we have revised our refinance forecast to a total of $1.2T for 2020 roughly double our previous forecast of $665B,” they said. “The revised refinance estimate is a 37 percent increase in refinance volume in 2020 relative to 2019. Additionally, we expect purchase originations to be stronger in 2020, showing an 8 percent increase for the year given the strength in new residential construction and in purchase applications to date. ”

Separately, mortgage originations increased 55.4% last week as purchases rose 6% and refis rose 79%. “Market uncertainty around the coronavirus led to a considerable drop in U.S. Treasury rates last week, causing the 30-year fixed rate to fall and match its December 2012 survey low of 3.47 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Homeowners rushed in, with refinance applications jumping 79 percent–the largest weekly increase since November 2008. With last week’s increase, the refinance index hit its highest level since April 2009.”

The consumer price index rose 0.1% MOM in February and is up 2.3% on a YOY basis. Ex-food and energy it rose 0.2% MOM and 2.4% YOY. Of course with the Fed knocking on ZIRP’s door, the inflation numbers are completely irrelevant to the bond market.

Mortgage credit availability dipped in February. “Mortgage credit supply decreased in February, as both conforming and jumbo segments of the market saw a decline,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting. “There were also reductions in ARM program offerings, as well as in low credit score programs offered by investors. Last month’s activity was the calm before the storm. Mortgage rates dropped steeply in the last week of February and a large surge of refinance activity followed. Investors may adjust their future mortgage credit offerings based on the sudden upswing in demand.” With pipelines full, many mortgage bankers are simply saying no to new loans.

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Vital Statistics:

Stocks are higher this morning after yesterday’s violent sell-off. Bonds and MBS are down.

Despite the huge drop in bond yields yesterday, mortgage rates only improved by 4 basis points. It seems like the main buyers in the TBA market are originators adjusting their hedge positions. Pipelines are full, and most people are building in more margin on their rate sheets. I can’t imagine sub 2% yields for a security with pretty heavy interest rate risk is going to entice many bond funds.

If you called Bank of America to get a refinance yesterday, there was a two-hour wait to speak with a loan officer. Lenders are inundated with business right now. “Demand has ramped up in a way that many lenders have never experienced,” said Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily, which tracks rates every morning. “Some of them have taken to raising rates in order to deter new business.  Others have completely stopped accepting new applications.” Once rates stabilize and the margin calls / fallout fears recede, the industry is going to feast. 2020 will probably break records.

The VIX (which is the CBOE volatility index, a measure of fear in the market) spiked over 60 yesterday, which is the highest since the financial crisis. Anyone remember what the spike in February 2018 was all about? The market had the worst 1 day point decline in history up until that point. How about the one in August 2015? The Dow lost 1,000 points and the S&P lost 120 in one day. If you search the news stories, the sell-offs are attributed to some bad economic number out of China, or something else transitory. Who knows, in two years we might look back at this sell off and scratch our heads wondering what was going on.

Small business remained optimistic in February, according to the NFIB. The survey pre-dates the market freakout and Fed cut, so maybe it is too early to see an impact from Coronavirus. “The small business economic expansion continued its historic run in February, as owners remained focused on growing their businesses in this supportive tax and regulatory environment,” said NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg. “February was another historically strong month for the small business economy, but it’s worth noting that nearly all of the survey’s responses were collected prior to the recent escalation of the coronavirus outbreak and the Federal Reserve rate cut. Business is good, but the coronavirus outbreak remains the big unknown.”

The White House is looking at a payroll tax cut to ease the pain of Coronavirus. Other measures being considered involve paid sick leave for those who become ill. This is in addition to the big spending bill that was just passed.

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Vital Statistics:

Don your crash helmets, it is ugly out there. Stock index futures are limit down. Bonds and MBS are up.

The 10 year is trading at 0.46% after hitting a low of 0.33% in the overnight session. Granted, the Asian overnight session can be illiquid and whippy, but that is shocking. Oil is down 22% due to a tiff between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The German Bund hit a new record low yield, trading at -88 basis points.

The 30 year Treasury is up 10 points. 10. points. The yield is 0.88%. Astounding. The chart of the iShares 20 year government bond ETF looks like an internet stock circa 1999.

TBAs are participating in the bond market rally, but not like the 10 year. The 10-year bond is up 3.375 points this morning. 2.5% TBAs are up 1/2 of a point, and 3% and higher notes are up a quarter. So  rates will be better this morning, but not by as much as you think they should. Also, many correspondents have full pipelines, so they will be adding margin to their rate sheets. We may see little to no improvement over Friday. Just be prepared to explain that to your borrowers.

The March Fed Funds futures are predicting a 90%+ chance that the Fed will cut to zero at the March 18 meeting. The site cautions that the March 3 cut has made the probabilities somewhat inaccurate, but the bet is that we are back at ZIRP by the end of the month. Don’t discount the possibility of another intra-meeting cut. Check out the Feb 7 predictions… roughly a 90% chance of a 2% Fed Funds rate. Now it is a 90% chance of a 0% Fed funds rate.

The week after the jobs report is usually data-light and this week is no exception. The only numbers of note are inflation, and those aren’t going to make any difference.

There are now 110,000 confirmed cases of Coronavirus. There are just under 30,000 cases outside China. 554 are in the US and it has resulted in 21 deaths. Italy is taking drastic measures to quarantine people, so if you had planned a trip to Milan or Venice this spring, you might want to re-think it.

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Vital Statistics:

Stocks are getting clobbered as the flight-to-safety trade takes hold. Bonds and MBS are up. Note we  will have a lot of Fed-speak today, so be aware.

Despite the big move upward in bonds (the 10 – year is up about 2 points), TBAs are barely up. The 2.5 coupon is up about 1/4, and the 3s and up are flat. There is a huge push-pull event happening in the TBA market right now.  First, originators who hedge their pipelines with TBAs are getting hit with margin calls, which is causing a bit of a short squeeze in the market. Basically, if an originator can’t make the margin call, the broker will close out their position, and that means buying TBAs to close out the short position. Most lenders have had a call from their friendly TBA broker-dealer already, and you will probably be able to hear the champagne corks popping after we get past Class A settlement next week. People have been white-knuckling it all week.

On the other hand, increasing prepay speeds are making the higher note rates less and less attractive. If you buy a 3.5% Fannie TBA, you’ll pay 104. You will get back 100. You are hoping that you get enough coupon payments to cover that premium you paid. As rates fall, that chance of making back that 4% premium you paid becomes less and less. So, even though the 10 year keeps falling, eventually mortgage backed securities will participate less and less in the rally (or at least the higher note rates will). And it looks like we are about there. This is a big relief for mortgage bankers who have full pipelines and want to ring the register. Now, about that servicing portfolio….

Margin calls harken back to the bad old days of 2008. Are we experiencing something similar? Emphatically, no. In 2008, we had a collapsing residential real estate bubble, and these are the Hurricane Katrinas of banking. Despite all the fears of a recession, delinquencies are at 40 year lows, and the labor economy remains strong.

Speaking of the labor economy, it is jobs day. Jobs report data dump:

• Nonfarm payrolls up 273,000 (expectation was 177)
• Unemployment rate 3.5% (expectation 3.6%)
• Average hourly earnings up 0.3% MOM / 3% YOY
• Labor force participation rate 63.4%

Overall, a strong report that should take some wind out of the sails of the bond market. Note that this is February’s report, so much of it will be pre-Coronavirus. US corporations are preparing for a mass experiment in remote working, so some of the effects of virus could be relatively well mitigated.

Remember yesterday, when I showed the Fed Funds futures prediction and said it was a toss-up between how big of a cut it will be? Well, it still is. Except now it is a toss-up between a 50 basis point cut and a 75 basis point cut. ZIRP by June?

Who else is driving the rally in the 10 year? Banks. Banks who hedge their interest rate risk with Treasuries are facing similar issues that mortgage bankers are in the Treasury market. Banks with huge portfolios of mortgage loans will sell the 10 year against it in order to hedge interest rate risk. As rates fall, they will need to buy back some of that hedge. According to JP Morgan, banks need to buy about $1.2 trillion in 10 year bonds to adjust their hedges.

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Vital Statistics:

Stocks are down again on coronavirus fears. Bonds and MBS are up with the 10 year trading below 1% again.

The Fed’s rate cut doesn’t seem to be having the desired effect. Volatility in the markets continues, and to be honest, I don’t see how cutting interest rates is going to make any difference. The markets don’t have a credit availability issue, and lower rates aren’t going to entice people to take a cruise all of a sudden. The Fed is also running out of ammo if we do experience a recession.

Speaking of rate cuts, the Fed Funds futures are handicapping a 50% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 50% chance of a 50 basis point cut at the March meeting in two weeks. The December futures are assigning a 27% chance we go back to zero.

The Coronavirus has certainly been a double-edged sword for mortgage originators. The MBA Mortgage applications index increased by 15% last week as purchases fell 3%, but refis rose 26%.

“The 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped to its lowest level in more than seven years last week, amidst increasing concerns regarding the economic impact from the spread of the coronavirus, as well as the tremendous financial market volatility,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Refinance demand jumped as a result, with conventional refinance applications increasing more than 30 percent. Given the further drop in Treasury rates this week, we expect refinance activity will increase even more until fears subside and rates stabilize.”

“We are now at the start of the spring homebuying season,” Fratantoni added. “While purchase applications were down a bit for the week, they are still up about 10 percent from a year ago. The next few weeks are key in whether these low mortgage rates bring in more buyers, or if economic uncertainty causes some home shoppers to temporarily delay their search.”

 

If the March Fed Fund futures are correct, we could be looking at mortgage rates with a 30 year fixed rate mortgages with a 2 in front of them. While this could generally be a good thing for mortgage bankers, people that hold mortgage servicing rights are about to get a 2×4 to the side of the head as prepay speeds accelerate. And their broker dealers are asking for more margin as rates rally. The best of times, the worst of times…

Optimal Blue, the loan pricing engine many bankers use has experience record volume and has been experiencing latency issues as a result. Unfortunately Optimal Blue was making some tech migrations when all of this hit.

The CFPB may get its wings clipped at the Supreme Court. At issue is whether the President can replace the Director of the CFPB without cause. The Trump Administration is siding with the Plaintiff in this case and is refusing to defend the Agency’s structure. The House has sent its general counsel to defend the agency. While SCOTUS probably won’t go so far as to rule that the agency be disbanded, it is likely to rule that the President is free to appoint a director that shares his ideology.

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Vital Statistics:

Stocks are lower this morning after yesterday’s rally. Bonds and MBS are up.

The G7 Finance Ministers and central bankers are held a conference call this morning to discuss the recent moves in the markets. While it is a long shot, do not discount the possibility of a intra-meeting rate cut. You could see a coordinated rate cut come out of this, possibly this week. Low probability event, but it isn’t zero.

Yesterday’s market rally was probably due to last week’s “too far, too fast” reaction in the markets. The rally was primarily driven by an expectation that global central banks will lower rates in a coordinated effort to support the economy. That said, how much of an effect will interest rates have? If you are worried about going out and getting sick, i don’t see how 25 basis points on the Fed Funds rate is going to change your behavior. At the margin, it could help businesses which have stretched supply lines, I guess. But cutting interest rates by 100 basis points over the next year in reaction to 105 cases of a disease in the US seems to be going overboard. It would also leave them out of ammo the next time we get a recession.

The ISM Manufacturing Index showed manufacturing barely expanded in February. Coronavirus issues are causing supply chain problems and the 737 Max groundings were also cited.

Construction spending rose 1.8% MOM and 6.8% in January, according to the Census Bureau. Residential Construction spending rose 2.1% MOM and 9% YOY. Coronavirus issues probably won’t affect the housing market much – fixtures are probably the biggest possibility. Luxury properties on the West Coast will be vulnerable as well as many owners are Chinese.

For all the handwringing about home affordability, telecommuting is providing a solution. “The job market is very tight and employers want to hold on to people, so companies are much more willing now to allow workers to move,” said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. “Plus, technology has enabled employers to let staff work remotely in a cost-efficient and productive manner.”

I am currently at the Lender’s One conference, and have heard from many originators that getting and retaining talent is difficult in this market. Many are paying up, and quite a few are looking at older workers as a solution. If this is happening in other industries besides the mortgage industry, that vast reservoir of over-50 labor that got created in the aftermath of the Great Recession might come on line, which would be fantastic for the economy.

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Vital Statistics:

Stocks are lower this morning on overseas weakness and Coronavirus fears. Bonds and MBS are up again.

The 10 year is trading at 1.28%, but MBS are lagging the move. Be patient with rates, as it will take MBS and rate sheets a few days to catch up. The Fed Funds futures are now handicapping a 58% chance of a March rate cut. A week ago it was 9%. What a difference 250 S&P handles makes…

New home sales rose 7.9% MOM in January, and is up 18.6% on a YOY basis. This is the highest level in 12 years. Mild weather and lower interest rates may have been a driver.  Speaking of new home sales, Toll Brothers reported lower than expected earnings, and blamed it on Coronavirus and CA sales.

The second estimate for fourth quarter GDP came in at 2.1%, in line with the advance estimate a month ago. Consumption was a touch below expectations at 1.7%, as was inflation at 1.3%. In other economic data, durable goods orders fell 0.2% which was better than expectations. Ex-transportation, they rose 0.9% and capital goods orders (which are a proxy for capital expenditures) rose 1.1%. Finally, initial jobless claims rose to 219,000 last week.

Interesting on the flight to safety trade – gold is up. bitcoin is not.

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