“Don’t be Drake” is Always Good Advice

From SBNation, a primer on March Madness for an NBA fan:

We’re halfway into the month of March, which means the NCAA Tournament is right around the corner. Most of the country is about 7 days into their 30-day NCAA basketball attention span, trying to figure out which mascot they think will win in a fight between a Badger and a Cyclone so they can finish their bracket before the deadline. NBA fans are no exception; you’re in the stretch run of your own season, watching the standings to see if your team is in the playoffs or the lottery. You don’t have time to research who the leading rebounder is for the Green Bay Phoenix, or if there is a Green Bay, or if their mascot is actually a phoenix.

(Now you’re interested. Go ahead and Google it, I’ll wait.)

(You didn’t know that was even a team, did you?)

(Neither did I until a week ago.)

So with that in mind, let’s set the table for you on what to expect this week.

This isn’t pretty basketball

If you’re a NBA fan, you’ve spent the last few months watching Steph Curry redefine the concept of shooting. You’ve spent the past 3-4 years watching the San Antonio Spurs create an offensive system that’s as much poetry as sport. You’ve had a decade of Lebron James doing things no 250 lb man should be able to do. This is not that game. NCAA basketball is trying to improve the offensive flow with a number of rule changes to the block/charge call & hand-checking, amongst other things. Early returns are positive, but it’s a work in progress and you’re likely to see a game with a foul every minute at least a couple times the first weekend. NCAA basketball is moving away from being Murderball, but you’re probably going to have some flashbacks to mid-90s Detroit Pistons/New York Knicks games.

The players aren’t great

You’re used to seeing the best basketball players in the world, so you gotta dial back your expectations a little. Most of these guys are going to be accountants & project managers in 2 years, not the 6th man for the Brooklyn Nets. There aren’t any transcendent players this season; Buddy Hield & Denzel Valentine are great NCAA players and will likely have solid NBA careers, but they’re not Kevin Durant or The Brow. A guy like Georges Niang is going to have his jersey in the rafters for the Iowa State Cyclones sooner than later, but it’s highly unlikely he makes a NBA squad next season. There will be at least a dozen guys who make a name for themselves this month and are never heard from again because that’s how it is when you’re in a league with 350 other D1 schools (I’m not exaggerating, there are 351 D1 schools technically eligible for March Madness.)

The scores will be low

There are a number of reasons for this; the shot clock is longer (30 seconds v. 24 for NBA), the games are shorter (40 minutes v. 48 for NBA), and the players are on average worse shooters (trust me). The Connecticut Huskies broke 100 points a couple days ago…it took them 4 OTs to hit it. Expect your bracket to be full of final scores in the 60s & 70s.

I’m painting a really rosy picture right now, I know. I can imagine you’re wondering why you should even bother turning on the games, and it’s a valid question. One answer is because you’re a degenerate gambler and the first week of the NCAA Tournament is basically Christmas in Las Vegas, but that’s not really what we’re getting at here. We’ve made it through the cons, here are the pros.

Nobody is immortal

This NCAA season has no NBA D-League teams like last year’s Kentucky squad, there are a number of teams that could make it to the Final Four is larger than I’ve seen in years. Any of the #1 seeds could get popped early (alright, not in the 1st round, it isn’t that insane) or they could all make it to the end, it’s wide open.

There’s variety

Do you want to watch a team that runs the floor for 40 minutes? Watch Green Bay. Do you want a team that runs a full-court press? Watch the West Virginia Mountaineers. Do you like a team that owns the boards? The Baylor Bears are a good bet. Do you appreciate teams that value the ball? The Temple Owls turn the ball over less than anybody in the tournament. There’s something in this tournament for everybody, you just have to know where to look.

The results will be unpredictable

For all the NBA has going for it, when it comes to the playoffs the NBA is fairly predictable. Last year it wasn’t a surprise that the Cleveland Cavaliers made it to the finals, and it wasn’t particularly surprising that Golden State won the whole thing. This year feels like – barring Greg Popovich stuffing kryptonite in Steph Curry’s mouthpiece – one long coronation for the Warriors. In the NCAA, this year could be especially messy; there are a pack of 10-15 teams at the top who are all bunched up together and a bunch of teams being led by battle-tested seniors lurking in the middle seeds. There may not be a 15-seed making it to the Sweet Sixteen, but don’t be surprised to see a number of 10-13 seeds destroying brackets this year. Bask in the glow of not knowing who is the clear favorite, it’s part of the entertainment.

It’s…fun

If you’re a basketball purist and you think anything less than the Warriors is shit, you probably should just stick to the NBA. But if you have the capacity for normal human emotions and want to mainline 96 hours of basketball, this is the best weekend of the year. Pick a random team to root for – not Kentucky, don’t be Drake – and ride the roller coaster.

A Modest Gun Regulation Proposal

A state could require that all guns sold in the state be tested for ballistics and that the ballistics files be kept in a central registry, along with the names and addresses of the seller and purchaser.  The state would nominate the NRA as its trustee to hold the registry, which would be private, and could only be opened for comparison analysis on a warrant issued to a police agency that has obtained ballistics from a crime scene it wishes to match to the registry.

 

This would grow into an effective crime clue generating tool over time, without infringing on any citizen’s 2d A rights.

 

It would reach peak effectiveness when every state adopted the plan and all the unregistered Saturday Night Specials that are on the streets of Baltimore, Chicago, NewOrleans, Philly, etc.,  break down and are replaced by registered guns whose ballistics have been tested.

 

This would not stop crazy shooters or even ordinary criminals.  It would make it easier to track them down after the fact.

 

I think it is a modest proposal, that keeps government out of handling the records, that puts an organization that can be trusted to keep privacy absent a warrant in charge of maintaining the registry.  But it would eventually be useful in catching criminals, and perhaps would cause some persons to think twice before shooting.  Or not.

 

 

 

Texas Independence Day

In 1824, Stephen Austin drafted the Mexican Constitution, which framed the most liberal representative governmental system the world had known until then. Other Texans and Tejanos were instrumental in its passage. See:

http://www.tamu.edu/faculty/ccbn/dewitt/constit1824.htm
But the United States of Mexico was short lived as a democratic republic. Santa Ana seized dictatorial power by military coup in 1833 after he had been elected President. Soon Texas had no reason to stay in and every reason to get out of the Mexican Union.

The leading Tejano signatory to the 1824 Constitution was also a signatory to the 1836 Texas Declaration of Independence.

The Texas Declaration of Independence was produced, literally, overnight, from March 1 to March 2, 1836. Its urgency was paramount, because while it was being prepared, the Alamo in San Antonio was under seige by Santa Anna’s Army of Mexico.

As seen from the transcription below, the document parallels somewhat that of the United States, signed almost sixty years earlier. It contains statements on the function and responsibility of government, followed by a list of grievances. Finally, it concludes by declaring Texas a free and independent republic.

The full text follows:

 

When a government has ceased to protect the lives, liberty and property of the people, from whom its legitimate powers are derived, and for the advancement of whose happiness it was instituted, and so far from being a guarantee for the enjoyment of those inestimable and inalienable rights, becomes an instrument in the hands of evil rulers for their oppression.

When the Federal Republican Constitution of their country, which they have sworn to support, no longer has a substantial existence, and the whole nature of their government has been forcibly changed, without their consent, from a restricted federative republic, composed of sovereign states, to a consolidated central military despotism, in which every interest is disregarded but that of the army and the priesthood, both the eternal enemies of civil liberty, the everready minions of power, and the usual instruments of tyrants.

When, long after the spirit of the constitution has departed, moderation is at length so far lost by those in power, that even the semblance of freedom is removed, and the forms themselves of the constitution discontinued, and so far from their petitions and remonstrances being regarded, the agents who bear them are thrown into dungeons, and mercenary armies sent forth to force a new government upon them at the point of the bayonet.

When, in consequence of such acts of malfeasance and abdication on the part of the government, anarchy prevails, and civil society is dissolved into its original elements. In such a crisis, the first law of nature, the right of self-preservation, the inherent and inalienable rights of the people to appeal to first principles, and take their political affairs into their own hands in extreme cases, enjoins it as a right towards themselves, and a sacred obligation to their posterity, to abolish such government, and create another in its stead, calculated to rescue them from impending dangers, and to secure their future welfare and happiness.

Nations, as well as individuals, are amenable for their acts to the public opinion of mankind. A statement of a part of our grievances is therefore submitted to an impartial world, in justification of the hazardous but unavoidable step now taken, of severing our political connection with the Mexican people, and assuming an independent attitude among the nations of the earth.

The Mexican government, by its colonization laws, invited and induced the Anglo-American population of Texas to colonize its wilderness under the pledged faith of a written constitution, that they should continue to enjoy that constitutional liberty and republican government to which they had been habituated in the land of their birth, the United States of America.

In this expectation they have been cruelly disappointed, inasmuch as the Mexican nation has acquiesced in the late changes made in the government by General Antonio Lopez de Santa Anna, who having overturned the constitution of his country, now offers us the cruel alternative, either to abandon our homes, acquired by so many privations, or submit to the most intolerable of all tyranny, the combined despotism of the sword and the priesthood.

It has sacrificed our welfare to the state of Coahuila, by which our interests have been continually depressed through a jealous and partial course of legislation, carried on at a far distant seat of government, by a hostile majority, in an unknown tongue, and this too, notwithstanding we have petitioned in the humblest terms for the establishment of a separate state government, and have, in accordance with the provisions of the national constitution, presented to the general Congress a republican constitution, which was, without just cause, contemptuously rejected.

It incarcerated in a dungeon, for a long time, one of our citizens, for no other cause but a zealous endeavor to procure the acceptance of our constitution, and the establishment of a state government.

It has failed and refused to secure, on a firm basis, the right of trial by jury, that palladium of civil liberty, and only safe guarantee for the life, liberty, and property of the citizen.

It has failed to establish any public system of education, although possessed of almost boundless resources, (the public domain,) and although it is an axiom in political science, that unless a people are educated and enlightened, it is idle to expect the continuance of civil liberty, or the capacity for self government.

It has suffered the military commandants, stationed among us, to exercise arbitrary acts of oppression and tyrrany, thus trampling upon the most sacred rights of the citizens, and rendering the military superior to the civil power.

It has dissolved, by force of arms, the state Congress of Coahuila and Texas, and obliged our representatives to fly for their lives from the seat of government, thus depriving us of the fundamental political right of representation.

It has demanded the surrender of a number of our citizens, and ordered military detachments to seize and carry them into the Interior for trial, in contempt of the civil authorities, and in defiance of the laws and the constitution.

It has made piratical attacks upon our commerce, by commissioning foreign desperadoes, and authorizing them to seize our vessels, and convey the property of our citizens to far distant ports for confiscation.

It denies us the right of worshipping the Almighty according to the dictates of our own conscience, by the support of a national religion, calculated to promote the temporal interest of its human functionaries, rather than the glory of the true and living God.

It has demanded us to deliver up our arms, which are essential to our defence, the rightful property of freemen, and formidable only to tyrannical governments.

It has invaded our country both by sea and by land, with intent to lay waste our territory, and drive us from our homes; and has now a large mercenary army advancing, to carry on against us a war of extermination.

It has, through its emissaries, incited the merciless savage, with the tomahawk and scalping knife, to massacre the inhabitants of our defenseless frontiers.

It hath been, during the whole time of our connection with it, the contemptible sport and victim of successive military revolutions, and hath continually exhibited every characteristic of a weak, corrupt, and tyrranical government.

These, and other grievances, were patiently borne by the people of Texas, untill they reached that point at which forbearance ceases to be a virtue. We then took up arms in defence of the national constitution. We appealed to our Mexican brethren for assistance. Our appeal has been made in vain. Though months have elapsed, no sympathetic response has yet been heard from the Interior. We are, therefore, forced to the melancholy conclusion, that the Mexican people have acquiesced in the destruction of their liberty, and the substitution therfor of a military government; that they are unfit to be free, and incapable of self government.

The necessity of self-preservation, therefore, now decrees our eternal political separation.

We, therefore, the delegates with plenary powers of the people of Texas, in solemn convention assembled, appealing to a candid world for the necessities of our condition, do hereby resolve and declare, that our political connection with the Mexican nation has forever ended, and that the people of Texas do now constitute a free, Sovereign, and independent republic, and are fully invested with all the rights and attributes which properly belong to independent nations; and, conscious of the rectitude of our intentions, we fearlessly and confidently commit the issue to the decision of the Supreme arbiter of the destinies of nations.

Texas Will Survive the Oil Glut, Thank You.

Screwing with Putin by killing the profits of the petro-state does not seriously threaten Texas, according to this Federal Reserve Report from the Dallas Branch.

http://www.dallasfed.org/research/heart/index.cfm

The vice president of the FRB-D  says that there are large “industry clusters” around the state where the economy is stable.

She says industries with high-paying jobs – like government, technology, construction, biomedical and defense – may not grow very quickly, but they don’t tend to lose jobs.

(Researchers) look at the question of why cities tend to grow faster,” she says. “They tend to grow faster because firms tend to group into industries and specialize, so certain regions are specialized in certain industries. This increases productivity growth. It raises wages for workers and it has a lot of benefits on growth.

Orrenius says the report shows a surprising diversification in industry in places like San Antonio, one trend that mimics the nation as a whole.

You really see some interesting insights,” she says. “We know that Houston is a huge center of the oil and gas industry in the nation, but then you see that Dallas, for example, has a very large concentration of professional and business services.”

The Report says that Austin bounced back from the Recession paced by its large and fast-growing high-tech sector.  Austin currently ranks first on The Kauffman Startup Index.

The Midland-Odessa Region will contract during the Glut, but that region has faced this before, many times, so it is “mature” in its handling of the situation.

Despite Houston’s huge petrochemical industry, diversification is pronounced. The Report says that “with five metropolitan areas of 1 million or more residents, Texas has more big cities per capita than the other large U.S. states with the exception of Florida and Ohio. Dallas–Fort Worth and Houston rank among the top five largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. in terms of both population and economic output. In fact, Texas is the only state to have two metros in the top five.”

College Football Playoffs and the remaining good bowl games

Such interesting possibilities.  Stoopes and the Land Thieves are 3-0 against ‘Bama, and Austin native Baker Mayfield is lighting it up at QB for the Sooners.  However, Brent Venables, who for a decade under Stoopes was the defensive guru of the Big 12, is now at Clemson.  Stoopes dumped Venables so that he could hire his brother, Mike Stoopes, who had been fired from his HC job.  Mike is a downgrade from Venables.

Michigan State was consistently the best coached defense in the nation under Dantonio and Narduzzi, but Narduzzi is now deservedly a HC on his own.  Nevertheless, MSU has not forgotten how to defend.  Twist for the ‘Bama – MSU game is that Saban used to coach at MSU.

Could ‘Bama grind out a victory against any of the other three?  All of the other three are better than every team that ‘Bama faced, but there are many truly NFL capable studs in the Tide’s lineup. Crucially, I would rate all three of the other starting QBs in the playoffs well ahead of ‘Bama’s Jake Coker.

Could MSU score enough to beat OU or Clemson?  Could either Clemson or OU  score four TDs against the MSU or ‘Bama defenses?

The Playoff Schedule:

No. 1 Clemson faces No. 4 Oklahoma on Dec. 31 in the Orange Bowl.

No. 2 Alabama will face No. 3 Michigan State on Dec. 31 in Jerry World, the Cowboys’ stadium, mislabeled the something Cotton Bowl.

For OU, Arlington TX would have been a home game, so it was a sure thing that OU would be ranked #4, although that ranking is certainly “reasonable”, regardless.

While I would not predict the results of a game between 19 YOs without inside information on injuries, grades, drinking habits, and girl friends, I will guess that styles will produce more TDs in the Arlington game, and that the final will provide a true contrast.  Here is a statistical model, taken without benefit of the “model information” I consider crucial:

Each Team’s Chances Of Winning The College Football Playoff

In the other Bowl games of note, the truly outstanding teams that fell short of the Playoffs will be butting heads.  TCU and ND had so many injuries that they were not the same teams by midseason as they were in early September.  They remained very tough squads, and if they heal before their bowl games, they will be as good to watch as the playoff teams.

Stanford, Ohio State, Iowa, Florida State, UNC, Okie Lite, and Baylor (if it has its first or second string QB back), are all highly competitive teams.  In fact, there was no single dominant team this year, and I am not inclined to believe that Clemson’s record set it apart.   I find ACC competition suspect, below the top three teams.  By contrast, the very competitive PAC has some good multi-loss teams, as does the western half of the SEC.

Only one non-power conference team is worth a mention: Houston.  Not having played even a fruit blender schedule there is no comparable way to measure them.  They do have talent and are very well coached by Herman, however, who was previously OC at tOSU.

So these are the best of the remaining bowl games, but remember when there is nothing on the line, either team may show up or not, depending in part on how much they want to party over Winter Break:

Dec 29
Citrus Bowl NKA as something else
UNC v. Baylor (but one of BU’s two best QBs must return for this or it will not be worth watching)

Dec 31
Peach Bowl
FSU vs UH (classic who wants to be there game)

Jan. 1 –

Fiesta Bowl
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State (injuries for ND and no incentive for tOSU?)
Rose Bowl Game
Stanford v. Iowa (Stanford has a great RB who will set many records)
Sugar Bowl
Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss

Jan 2 –
Alamo Bowl
Oregon vs. TCU (another injury bowl – but these are exciting teams)

Jan 11 – National Title Game from Glendale, AZ

FWIW, do not bet on these games.  19 YOs, girlfriends, drinking, injuries, passing finals, arrests in New Orleans…you cannot know the outcome.  That is why we watch.

And – GOOD LUCK to Michigan State!

 

 

 

Apple Cranberry Currant Pie 11/24/15

My annual contrib to the meal is apple cranberry currant pie.

PREP AND COOK TIME: About 1 1/2 hours, plus at least 1 hour to cool
MAKES: 8 [adult male or teenager] servings
1/4 cup Gran Marnier [or brandy, if you are short on the good stuff]
1/4 cup currants [look like tiny raisins – you could use raisins in a pinch but they are not the same]
1 cup fresh [or thawed frozen] cranberries [I find fresh make a tarter pie – I am OK with tart]
About 1 cup granulated sugar
1/2 cup tapioca flour [I never use cornstarch in a fruit pie]
1/2 teaspoon ground nutmeg
1/2 teaspoon ground cinnamon
1/4 teaspoon salt
2 oz 1/2+1/2
6 cups sliced/chopped Granny Smith apples [about 2 1/4 lb].  I like the skin on for this pie – it’s more “rustic”.
2×9-inch pie pastry shells  – I either make my own or buy really great shells at Central Market.  When I make my own it is in no way unusual.
1. In a small bowl, combine Gran Marnier and currants. Cover and let stand until currants are plump, at least 1 hour.  [Sometimes I cheat and do not soak this long.  No biggie.  The plumpness of currants is mainly a texture deal.  Also, pre-warming the Gran Marnier quickens the plumping]
2.  Chop/slice apples, skin on, using a mix of techniques for slices and chunks.  If there will be a delay between prep and oven, put the 6 cups of apples in a big bowl and add a little OJ to keep them from browning.  LATER YOU MUST THOROUGHLY DRAIN AND PAT DRY THE APPLES!  My grandmother taught me the OJ instead of lemon juice trick about 56 years ago. 
3. Sort cranberries and discard any that are bruised or decayed. Rinse and drain berries.
4. In a large bowl, mix sugar, tapioca flour, nutmeg, and salt. With a slotted spoon, lift currants from Gran Marnier ; reserve Gran Marnier. Add currants, cranberries, and chopped apples to fructose mixture and mix well. Taste and add more fructose if desired. Pour filling into unbaked pie pastry in pan.  Cut hole pattern in top crust.  Mix 1/2+1/2 with reserved Gran Marnier and cinnamon and brush liberally on pie crust.  Carefully braid foil around pie’s edge to keep pie from from crisping-burning on crust edge that overlaps the pan during baking.  [Later, pass off the tiny pieces of foil that some guest finds in the crust edge as “healthy mineral”. :-)]
5. Bake on the bottom rack of a 375° oven until juices bubble around edges and through top holes, 55 to 65 minutes. If pie browns too quickly – check after 30 minutes – cover loosely with foil.
6. Set pie, uncovered, on a rack until cool to touch, at least 1 hour.

Actually, the Islamic State IS “Islamic” 11/18/15

Turns out the official line about the ISIS as proclaimed by our President (you will recall the blanket statements – not Islamic, and AQ’s junior partner) were as ignorant in their dismissiveness as they were dangerous in their denial.  This excellent Atlantic article spells out what we actually know about these militant medieval religious zealots, their appeal, and their goals.

 

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/

You be the Judge! 10/26/15

Click to access 14-5194.pdf

 

Please read the opinion that I link above.  There is no question but that the decision in the case is a correct one based on the limits of Supreme Court investiture of a person’s right to enforce a remedy for a governmental violation of liberty after the violation has occurred.

However, as a Judge in this case you would have a choice to make, if you thought the 4th and 5th Amendments should provide such a remedy, lest the protections become stripped of meaning.  There are several possible choices here, by the way.  I probably would have recognized the Bivens right as extending to this man in this situation because the FBI intended to use his coerced confession in a criminal proceeding, reading between the lines.  But I would have stayed my Judgment pending Supreme Court review.

What would you have written?

 

August 11, 1943

Previously Mark Clark had been promoted to Lt. General by Ike for his outstanding service in North Africa. Now he was to be the American commander of the Fifth Army for the Mediterranean push into Italy, the first Allied incursion onto mainland Europe. Thus, it was with great hope for the liberation of Europe that my dad named me “Mark” on August 11, 1943. Although he had to cover the naming with its relationship in Hebrew to someone else long dead in our family, I, like thousands and thousands of American male children, was named after a WW2 USA warrior.

Years later when I talked to my dad about it, he pointed out that after Salerno there was a big drop off in babies named “Mark”. That would have been in September of ’43. Salerno didn’t go so well. Missed that by a month. And the “Patton” craze died down after the stories of his slapping shell shocked casualties in hospital care went public. So it goes.

Clark was later criticized for taking Rome while allowing a German army to escape to the north. However, I have it on the authority of the late Cecil Cates, then a Captain in Army Intelligence in the invasion force, that encircling the retreating Germans would have been tactically impossible and the symbolism of taking Rome was worth a great deal to the Italian partisans, who harassed the retreating Wehrmacht.

My mother in law, then a farm girl in Calabria, remembers when the Germans first swept south through Italy, foraging from the fields and stealing as they came. They were hated. Before dementia caught up with her, she told the story of how her father hid their Jewish cousins in the barn when the Germans came. We think there were no Jewish cousins, but that her father, like many Italian farmers, hid local Jews when the Nazis came, and referred to them as “cousins” within the family so that no one would slip up and mention guests who were not relatives. That was a common practice in Italy to the point that almost all of Italy’s Jews survived the Holocaust, and the ones who died were generally young persons fighting with the partisans, or the oldest ones who refused offered hiding.

So that is what I am musing about, 10 days into retirement, on my 72d birthday.

Windows 10 is Here 7/29/15

http://www.cnet.com/products/microsoft-windows-10/

 

Yes, it is out 3 days before my retirement.  After which, of course, I will never need it again.

 

No matter whether MS “got it right” this time.  I write this on a laptop I loaded with Ubuntu (Linux) only and do not intend to be captive to an operating system monopoly ever again, once I do not require legal software apps that only run on MSW.

 

For those of you who must continue to use it, I hope it is all it’s cracked up to be.