All Things in Moderation

Vital Statistics:

Stocks are higher this morning as earnings continue to come in. Bonds and MBS are down small.

As expected the Fed maintained interest rates at current levels and highlighted the increased risks to the economy. “The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.”

Despite the negative GDP print in Q1, Powell was generally constructive on the economy: “Following growth of 2.5 percent last year, GDP was reported to have edged down in the first quarter, reflecting swings in net exports that were likely driven by businesses bringing in imports ahead of potential tariffs. This unusual swing complicated GDP measurement last quarter. Private domestic final purchases, or PDFP—which excludes net exports, inventory investment, and government spending—grew at a solid 3 percent rate in the first quarter, the same as last year’s pace.”

On the subject of tariffs: The new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. The tariff increases announced so far have been significantly larger than anticipated. All of these policies are still evolving, however, and their effects on the economy remain highly uncertain. As economic conditions evolve, we will continue to determine the appropriate stance of monetary policy based on the incoming data, the outlook, and the balance of risks. If the large increases in tariffs that have been announced are sustained, they are likely to generate a rise in inflation, a slowdown in economic growth, and an increase in unemployment. The effects on inflation could be short-lived—reflecting a one-time shift in the price level. It is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent. Avoiding that outcome will depend on the size of the tariff effects, on how long it takes for them to pass through fully into prices, and, ultimately, on keeping longer term inflation expectations well anchored.”

Note that the market-based inflationary expectations are still well-anchored. This is reflected in TIPS breakeven inflation measures over a year out. Consumer sentiment surveys however see inflation returning to 2021 levels. There is a big partisan schism in that data, with Republicans more sanguine and Democrats more alarmed. If the consumer sentiment surveys are polling more Democrats than Republicans it would explain the difference between TIPS and survey data.

The Fed’s concern with inflationary expectations lies in the behavior it promotes in consumers and workers. If it causes consumers to buy more goods in order to beat the price increases, it could create shortages, which would increase prices (inflation). If it causes workers to negotiate higher salaries it would increase wage inflation. If it doesn’t cause these things then its effect is much more benign.

The biggest driver of inflation in 2021 and 2022 was shelter inflation as home prices rose some 20%. Given the affordability issues this time around, another gap up in home prices seems unlikely, especially since the Fed won’t be buying scads of MBS, pushing down rates.

The reaction in the Fed Funds futures was to further decrease the chance for a rate cut in June. The Fed Funds futures now see only a 17% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. A couple of weeks ago, it was a better-than-50% chance. The December futures see 3 rate cuts this year, which means monetary policy will remain above r-star for the rest of the year.

The Bank of England cut its short term interest rate to 4.25%, making the US the highest interest rate economy of the big developed economies. Separately, Trump announced a trade deal with the UK is imminent.

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Vital Statistics:

Stocks are lower after some weaker-than-expected economic data. Bonds and MBS are flat.

First quarter GDP fell 0.3% which was lower than the 0.2% Street expectation. The decrease was attributable to a larger-than-expected increase in imports. Consumer spending and investment were additions to GDP while government spending was modestly negative and imports were a big drag.

It looks like the GDP numbers were highly influenced by tariffs: the big increase in investment was primarily attributable to inventory build, while the increase in imports (from $4.1T to $4.6T) was probably driven by businesses trying to get ahead of tariffs. Note these are annualized numbers.

The drop in government spending was primarily attributable to defense.

More evidence the labor market is softening: Private sector employment rose by 62,000 last month, according to the ADP Employment Report. “Unease is the word of the day. Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment.”

We saw wages increase 4.5% on average, a slight deceleration from March. Leisure / hospitality, construction, and finance saw the biggest increases in payrolls, while education / health and IT fell.

The Street is looking for 125k private payrolls on Friday, so this report portends a miss.

Consumer confidence fell in April, according to the Conference Board. The Present Situation index was marginally lower, but the expectations index hit a 13 year low. “Consumer confidence declined for a fifth consecutive month in April, falling to levels not seen since the onset of the COVID pandemic,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decline was largely driven by consumers’ expectations. The three expectation components—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future. Notably, the share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months (32.1%) was nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession. In addition, expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years, suggesting that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations. However, consumers’ views of the present have held up, containing the overall decline in the Index.”

The view of current business conditions actually improved, however consumer views of the current labor market were lower. The conference board index comports with the University of Michigan numbers. The stock market decline is certainly weighing on sentiment, as is the uncertainty over tariffs.

Job openings fell to 7.2 million in March, according to BLS. February’s number was revised downward to 7.5 million. The quits rate ticked up to 2.1%, which was flat on a year-over-year basis. Job openings shot up in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic and began to fall starting in 2022. We are now almost back to pre-pandemic levels.

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Vital Statistics:

Stocks are higher this morning after comments from Trump supported Jerome Powell and signaled lower tariffs might be ahead with China. Bonds and MBS are up.

Donald Trump soothed markets yesterday with a statement that he wasn’t planning to fire Jerome Powell. In addition, he discussed Chinese tariff levels: “that 145% tariffs on China are “very high.” “It won’t be that high,” Trump said. “It will come down substantially.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also predicted a deal can be reached with China. Stocks rallied as bargain-hunters scooped up tech stocks and the 10 year bond yield fell.

The bond market reaction to Trump reminds me of James Carville and Bill Clinton in 1993 when Bill Clinton wanted to stimulate the economy but the bond market rebelled and interest rates rose. Bob Woodward’s book The Agenda characterized Bill Clinton’s reaction: ‘You mean to tell me that the success of the program and my reelection hinges on the Federal Reserve and a bunch of ——- bond traders?’ he responded in a half-whisper.”

As Clinton advisor James Carville once said: “I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.”

I suspect Donald Trump may have just learned the same lesson. The bond market always bats last.

Mortgage applications fell 12.7% last week as turmoil in the bond market kept borrowers on the sidelines. Purchases fell 6.6% while refis dropped 20.7%. “Overall mortgage application activity declined last week, as rates increased to their highest level in two months. The 30-year fixed rate rose for the second straight week to 6.9 percent, an almost 30-basis-point increase over two weeks,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “These higher rates drove a 20 percent drop in refinance applications, especially for higher balance loans, with the average loan size falling substantially. The refinance share of applications at 37.3 percent was the lowest since January. Similar to the previous week, economic uncertainty and rate volatility impacted prospective homebuyers as we saw a 7 percent decline in purchase applications. Both conventional and government purchase activity fell relative to the week before, but the overall level of purchase applications was still 6 percent higher than a year ago.”

Homebuilder Pulte reported better than expected earnings of $2.57 which was a decline of 11% on an apples-to-apples basis. Revenues fell slightly, so the drop in earnings was mainly due to margin compression. “As the quarter progressed, buyers responded favorably to interest rate declines, but consumers remain caught between a strong desire for homeownership and the affordability challenges of high selling prices and monthly payments that are stretched,” added Marshall. “Given the structural shortage of housing, we remain constructive on long-term housing demand, and are adapting to the short-term impacts on consumer demand resulting from greater economic and financial uncertainty. PulteGroup’s balanced operating model, disciplined underwriting and financial strength position us well to navigate the increasingly dynamic environment and deliver value for our stakeholders.”

New orders declined about 7% on a per-unit basis as affordability challenges limited customer demand. The cancellation rate increased from 10% to 11%. Once other tidbit on the conference call about tariffs: “Our guide on gross margin assumes incentives remain elevated, at the elevated levels experienced in the first quarter. Further gross margins in the back half of the year, reflect the estimated impact of tariffs that have been imposed, which are expected to increase our house cost, by an estimated 1% of average selling price.”

FWIW, a 1% hit in ASPs is not that big of an impact. Pulte’s ASP is around $507k, so we are talking about roughly $5,000 in impact. The NAHB saw a $9,000 impact on average. Regardless, tariffs probably aren’t going to impact house prices – if anything they will probably get swallowed up in lower gross margins since the builders don’t seem to have much pricing power these days with stretched affordability. Bottom line: I don’t see tariffs moving the needle on shelter inflation.

PennyMac reported earnings yesterday. Origination volume came in at $28.9 billion, which was up 33% on a year-over-year basis. That said, production income fell as gain on sale margins compressed and fee income declined. The MSR portfolio also took a valuation hit. PFSI is valuing its current MSR portfolio at 5.3x.

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Vital Statistics:

Stocks are lower after Nvidia said it would take a $5 billion charge against earnings for licensing fees. Bonds and MBS are up.

Mortgage applications fell 8.5% last week as purchases declined 4.9% and refis fell 12.4%. “Mortgage rates moved 20 basis points higher last week, abruptly slowing the pace of mortgage application activity with refinance volume dropping 12 percent and purchase volume falling 5 percent for the week. Purchase volume remains almost 13 percent above last year’s level, but economic uncertainty and the volatility in rates is likely to make at least some prospective buyers more hesitant to move forward with a purchase,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “One notable change last week was the full percentage point increase in the ARM share. Given the jump in rates, more borrowers are opting for the lower initial rates that come with an ARM, with initial fixed rates closer to 6 percent in our survey last week. The ARM share at 9.6 percent was the highest since November 2023, and this reflects the share of units. On a dollar basis, almost a quarter of the application volume last week was for ARMs, as borrowers with larger loans are even more likely to opt for an ARM.”

Retail sales rose 1.4% MOM in March, in line with Street expectations. Ex-vehicles and gas sales rose 0.8%, better then street expectations. February sales were revised upward as well.

On an annual basis, sales rose 4.6%. Since retail sales are not adjusted for price changes, if you subtract inflation, sales rose on an inflation-adjusted basis. The big question is what is driving the increase. One interpretation is that consumers are stocking up on goods before tariff-driven price changes take effect. The other interpretation is the economy isn’t in as bad of shape as the consensus thinks.

If you believe the consumer sentiment numbers, then you would probably go with the first interpretation: desperate consumers are spending up front to beat the price increases. On the other hand, if you look at the latest jobs report, the economy isn’t as bad as feared.

The conventional wisdom is the first interpretation: “Net, net, these are simply blow out numbers on March retail sales where the rush is on like this is one gigantic clearance sale,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. “Consumers are expecting sharply higher prices the next year and are clearing the store shelves and picking up bargains while they can.”

We have a lot of conflicting economic data out there, so it is tough to draw a definitive conclusion about what is going on out there. I suspect there is a divergence between people who consume a lot of mainstream media and those that do not.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model is scheduled to be updated today. The current estimate (from April 9) is -2.4% growth in Q1. Given this sales number, estimate is probably low. I suspect the Atlanta Fed knows something is off with their model given that they have introduced a second GDP estimate based off of gold flows which is much less dire.

US Bank reported better-than-expected Q1 earnings of $1.03 per share, a 32% increase from a year ago. Provisions for credit losses declined on both a quarterly and annual basis. Mortgage origination volume fell 8% YOY to $6.6 billion.

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Vital Statistics:

Stocks are lower as markets continue to digest the pause in tariffs. Bonds and MBS are up.

CPI inflation fell 0.1% MOM, which was well below expectations. On a year over year basis, inflation fell 2.4%, which was below the 2.6% forecast. If you strip out food and energy, inflation rose 0.1% versus a 0.3% forecast and rose 2.8% versus a 3.0% Street expectation. In normal times, this would be a cause for stock futures to rally and bonds yields to fall, but these are not normal times.

Stocks rallied yesterday as Trump suspended some of the tariffs for 90 days in order to reach agreements with some of our trading partners who have expressed interest in making a deal. This caused a massive whipsaw in the stock market, sending the S&P 500 up almost 10% and the NASDAQ up 12%. We did not see much of a reaction in the bond market, however.

Ex Bill Clinton advisor James Carville one quipped: “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or as a 400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.”

I think the bond market was the catalyst for this, not the stock market. The 10 year bond yield hit 4.5% in the Tuesday night Asian session, and that began to cause some issues in the plumbing of the bond market. There were rumors of Japanese dumping of US Treasuries overnight, although there was no corresponding movement in the US / JPY spot rate.

The Wall Street Journal had a story about another factor in the bond market rout: leveraged hedge fund bets blowing up. Hedge funds have put on positions in long Treasuries / short swaps in anticipation of a regulatory change in bank capital requirements which would increase demand for long-term Treasuries. Margin calls are forcing these funds to unwind these trades. The basis trade, where a fund buys Treasuries and shorts futures against it is another trade that is being unwound. If everyone is rushing for the exits all at once, it can create dislocations.

I think this is a pause for Trump to get some agreements with our trading partners on the page and then begin to isolate China.

Finally, we did have a good 10 year auction in the afternoon which gave players a sense of relief.

The FOMC minutes were released yesterday, although the tariff news overshadowed the release. Here were some of the highlights:

In their discussion of inflation developments, participants noted that inflation had eased significantly over the past two years but remained somewhat elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal. Some participants observed that inflation data over the first two months of this year were higher than they had expected. Among the major subcategories of prices, housing services inflation had continued to moderate, consistent with the past slowing in market rents, but inflation in core non housing services remained high, especially in nonmarket services

With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants judged that inflation was likely to be boosted this year by the effects of higher tariffs, although significant uncertainty surrounded the magnitude and persistence of such effects. Several participants noted that the announced or planned tariff increases were larger and broader than many of their business contacts had expected. Several participants also noted that their contacts were already reporting increases in costs, possibly in anticipation of rising tariffs, or that their contacts had indicated willingness to pass on to consumers higher input costs that would arise from potential tariff increases. A couple of participants highlighted factors that might limit the inflationary effects of tariffs, noting that many households had depleted the excess savings they had accumulated during the pandemic and were less likely to accept additional price increases, or that stricter immigration policies might reduce demand for rental and affordable housing and alleviate upward pressures on housing inflation. A couple of participants noted that the continued balance in the labor market suggested that labor market conditions were unlikely to be a source of inflationary pressure.

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Vital Statistics:

The manufacturing sector returned to contraction in March, according to the ISM Manufacturing Survey. “In March, U.S. manufacturing activity slipped into contraction after expanding only marginally in February. The expansion in both February and January followed 26 consecutive months of contraction. Demand and output weakened while input strengthened further, a negative for economic growth. Indications that demand weakened include: the (1) New Orders Index falling further into contraction territory, (2) New Export Orders Index dropping into contraction, (3) Backlog of Orders Index contracting at a faster rate, and (4) Customers’ Inventories Index remaining in ‘too low’ territory.

“Demand and production retreated and destaffing continued, as panelists’ companies responded to demand confusion. Prices growth accelerated due to tariffs, causing new order placement backlogs, supplier delivery slowdowns and manufacturing inventory growth. Forty-six percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in March, up from 24 percent in February. “

Needless to say, tariff uncertainty is causing manufacturers to be more cautious.

Job openings fell to 7.6 million in February, according to the JOLTs job openings report. Openings fell across the board on a YOY basis, although we did see construction openings increase. The quits rate was flat at 2.0%.

Construction job openings are at a 3 year low as homebuilders battle affordability issues. While tariffs aren’t necessarily helping, the driver of affordability has been the rapid rise of real estate prices driven by expansionary fiscal and monetary policy during the COVID era and higher mortgage rates. The layoff rate in construction remained extremely low at 1.8%.

New York and San Francisco are seeing increased demand for real estate, according to research from Redfin. 57% of homes in San Francisco sold over asking, and Nassau County saw a similar percentage. “The Bay Area has an unending population of people with enormous swaths of money,” said Josh Felder, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in the Bay Area. “A decade or so ago, we all thought the growth in home prices was unsustainable, but they just keep going up and up. That’s partly because there aren’t enough homes for sale, and partly because tech continues to boom despite ups and downs in the stock market and geopolitical uncertainty.”

Southern California (particularly San Diego) is seeing more homes sell below listing.

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Mortgage applications fell 2% last week as purchases fell 1% and refis fell 5%. “Purchase applications saw the strongest weekly pace in almost two months and were 7 percent higher than a year ago. Last week’s purchase activity was driven primarily by a 6 percent increase in FHA applications, as the combination of loosening housing inventory and slowly declining mortgage rates have presented this segment of buyers with more opportunities,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Additionally, VA purchase applications saw a modest increase over the week. Overall applications declined, however, as refinance applications were down 5 percent to its lowest level in a month.”

Added Kan, “Markets remained focused on potential trade policy changes, while the Fed held the funds rate its current level, resulting in the 30-year fixed rate averaging 6.71 percent last week.” 

Durable goods orders rose 0.9% in February, which was well above Street expectations. Durable goods orders ex-transportation rose 0.7%, again above expectations. The upside surprise was primarily attributed to aircraft orders. The strength in orders is being attributed to a rebound after a few weak months. Business might be front-loading some orders ahead of tariffs. That said, shipments remain strong so business is doing reasonably well.

It does pour some cold water on the narrative that Trump is causing enough uncertainty that business is sitting on its hands. I am not sure how much of this is astroturfed media wishcasting and how much is real. Q1 earnings will tell the story, especially what is said on earnings conference calls.

The latest Atlanta Fed GDP Now model still sees -1.8% growth in Q1 however.

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Vital Statistics:

Stocks are lower this morning after markets digest the Fed move yesterday. Bonds and MBS are up.

As expected, the Fed didn’t make any changes to the Fed Funds rate, and the dot plot became marginally more hawkish. You can see the comparison between December (left) and March (right) below. The central tendency is for 50 basis points of cuts this year.

The forecast for 2025 economic growth was revised downward from 2.1% to 1.7%, while the unemployment rate was bumped up to 4.4% from 4.3%. The estimate for headline PCE inflation increased from 2.5% to 2.7%, while the estimate for core PCE inflation rose from 2.5% to 2.8%.

Despite the hawkish plot and forecast, bonds rallied because the Fed is reducing quantitative tightening, and will cap runoff at $5 billion per month instead of $25 billion per month. This will create incremental demand for Treasuries at bond auctions, which will help absorb supply. The Fed did not adjust its runoff for MBS.

The press conference prepared remarks are here. The highlights are below:

Economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace in the fourth quarter of last year, with GDP rising at 2.3 percent. Recent indications, however, point to a moderation in consumer spending following the rapid growth seen over the second half of 2024.  Surveys of households and businesses point to heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook. It remains to be seen how these developments might affect future spending and investment.

In the labor market, conditions remain solid. Payroll job gains averaged 200 thousand per month over the past three months. The unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, remains low and has held in a narrow range for the past year. The jobs-to-workers gap has held steady for several months. Wages are growing faster than inflation, and at a more sustainable pace than earlier in the pandemic recovery. Overall, a wide set of indicators suggests that conditions in the labor market are broadly in balance. The labor market is not a source of significant inflationary pressures

Inflation has eased significantly over the past two years but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal. Estimates based on the Consumer Price Index and other data indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.5 percent over the 12 months ending in February and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.8 percent. Some near-term measures of inflation expectations have recently moved up. We see this in both market- and survey-based measures, and survey respondents, both consumers and businesses, are mentioning tariffs as a driving factor. Beyond the next year or so, however, most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with our 2 percent inflation goal.

Looking ahead, the new Administration is in the process of implementing significant policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the economy and for the path of monetary policy. While there have been recent developments in some of these areas, especially trade policy, uncertainty around the changes and their effects on the economic outlook is high. We do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance, and we are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.

Finally, the Fed Funds futures now see a 70% chance for a rate cut at the June meeting, and have 3 cuts this year as the most likely scenario. We will probably see 25 at the June, September and December meetings.

If we take the 4 issues Powell mentioned: trade, immigration, fiscal policy and regulation, we can talk about how it affects growth and inflation.

Trade: tariffs will be a net negative for growth and inflation, at least in the short term. Trump is hoping that tariffs will either (a) force our trading partners to reduce their tariffs or (b) increase investment in domestic production. If (a) happens, that is a positive for growth and inflation. If (b) happens, that is probably good for growth, but not so much for inflation. If a trade war is the result, it will be bad for growth and inflation.

Immigration: Reducing immigration will probably be bad for inflation and growth in the short term. That said, it probably won’t have a big impact either way.

Fiscal Policy: Reducing government spending will reduce GDP and inflation. As government workers are cut, and contracts decrease, the labor market will weaken.

Regulation: Deregulation generally reduces costs, so it will be positive for inflation and growth.

I suspect the net effect of all of this will be minimal, but the possibility for outsized effects remain a tail risk. So chances are it won’t affect monetary policy one way or the other. Notwithstanding the jump in inflationary expectations out of the UMich consumer sentiment survey, pricing on 5 year TIPS remains more or less in the same range it has been in for the past 2 years. The pricing on 10 year TIPS is even less dramatic.

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Vital Statistics:

Stocks are lower this morning on the escalating trade war. Bonds and MBS are down.

We had another benign inflation report, with the Producer Price Index flat on a month-over-month basis. The Street was looking for a 0.3% increase in the index, so this was a sizeable pleasant surprise. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI rose 3.2%.

If you strip out food and energy, the index fell 0.1% MOM and rose 3.4% on a YOY basis. In theory, this should be good for the bond market, however trade issues are overshadowing the good report.

It is getting hard to keep track of where we are on tariffs – what has been threatened, what has been implemented, what has been revoked, etc. Tariff threats are sucking up all of the oxygen right now, and that is pushing stocks lower. Theoretically that should be good for bonds, but tariffs reduce demand for Treasuries. This is because most countries run trade surpluses with the US, so instead of buying US goods and services countries buy Treasuries instead.

Initial Jobless Claims came in at 220k, which has been the typical level for years. If there is this army of recently-terminated government workers out there, the initial jobless claims aren’t reflecting it.

Donald Trump looks set to nominate Michelle Bowman as the country’s top banking regulator. She is going to replace Michael Barr, and will probably pursue a more deregulatory approach to banking regulation.

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Vital Statistics:

Stocks are flattish this morning after the ADP jobs report came in light. Bonds and MBS are down small.

The private sector added 77,000 jobs in February, according to the ADP Employment Report. The consensus was for 162,000 jobs, so this is a sizeable miss. “Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Our data, combined with other recent indicators, suggests a hiring hesitancy among employers as they assess the economic climate ahead.”

Pay increased 4.7% for job stayers. ADP looks at private payrolls, not total, so it would correspond to the 143,000 expectation for Friday’s jobs report. Friday’s jobs report could miss substantially on the back of DOGE and government workers / contractors being let go.

Mortgage applications rose 20% last week as purchases rose 9% and refis increased 37%. The 30 year fixed rate mortgage declined from 6.88% to 6.73%.

“Mortgage rates declined last week on souring consumer sentiment regarding the economy and increasing uncertainty over the impact of new tariffs levied on imported goods into the U.S.,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist, in a release. “Those factors resulted in the largest weekly decline in the 30-year fixed rate since November 2024. This is a period where we typically see purchase activity ramp up and purchase applications were up over the week and co

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