Morning Report: Consumer price inflation comes in lower than expected

Posted on October 24, 2025 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

Stocks are higher this morning after the consumer price index comes in better than expected. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Inflation at the consumer level rose 0.3% MOM and 3.0% YOY, according to the Consumer Price Index. Gasoline prices were the biggest driver of the increase (something different than shelter, for once). The index for shelter rose 0.2% MOM and 3.5% YOY.

Shelter inflation (YOY) is almost back to pre-pandemic levels:

Given continued downward momentum in rental and home price appreciation, shelter inflation is about to go from foe to friend in the fight against inflation.

Core inflation (ex-food and energy) rose 0.2% MOM and 3.0% YOY. We are over 6 months into the imposition of tariffs and the inflation indices have had nothing more than a negligible increase. Whatever fears of hyperinflation (or stagflation) have not materialized.

This clears the decks for a rate cut next week, and probably another one in December.

Existing Home Sales rose 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million units. “As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. “Improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase in sales.”

“Inventory is matching a five-year high, though it remains below pre-COVID levels,” Yun added. “Many homeowners are financially comfortable, resulting in very few distressed properties and forced sales. Home prices continue to rise in most parts of the country, further contributing to overall household wealth.”

Sales increased in the Northeast, South and West, while falling in the Midwest. The median home price rose 2.1% YOY to $415,200. Inventory rose 14% YOY to 1.55 million units, which represents a 4.6 month supply.

Fannie Mae CEO Priscilla Almodovar has resigned and Peter Akwaboah, Fannie Mae’s current Chief Operating Officer has been tapped as Interim CEO. “Peter’s deep operating background, as the former Morgan Stanley COO of Global Technology, makes him the perfect fit for the Acting CEO position while the Board conducts its search for a permanent CEO. With the addition of Peter as Acting CEO and John Roscoe and Brandon Hamara as Co-Presidents, we now have a deep bench of three experienced leaders at the very top of Fannie Mae. This means a safer, sounder Fannie Mae, all while growing our great Fortune 25 Company,” Pulte continued.

Filed under: Economy |

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16 Responses

    • Let the mutherfuker burn!'s avatar
      Let the mutherfuker burn!, on October 27, 2025 at 10:48 am said:

      This quote from her book is just plain gaslighting.

      “The bickering. The backbiting. The behind-the-scenes machinations. It led me to ask myself a question for the first time: Did I really want to be in a party that treated people this way?”

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  2. jnc4p's avatar
    jnc4p, on October 27, 2025 at 12:41 pm said:

    A good deconstruction of a NY Times article:

    https://chrisbray.substack.com/p/watching-a-horrifying-crisis-in-los

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  4. jnc4p's avatar
    jnc4p, on October 27, 2025 at 3:54 pm said:

    NoVA, if you are still around I’d be interested on your take on this:

    https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/monopoly-round-up-obamacare-is-cooked

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  6. Let the mutherfuker burn!'s avatar
    Let the mutherfuker burn!, on October 29, 2025 at 8:55 am said:

    They desperately want to control what you hear, we and read, as they always do.

    https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1983378802894876859?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg

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  8. jnc4p's avatar
    jnc4p, on November 6, 2025 at 6:41 am said:

    Good piece from Matti Taibbi on his evolution.

    Scott & Brent, you may find his commentary on who his sources were for his Wall Street articles at Rolling Stone to be of interest:

    It’s true that Griftopia and The Divide showed failures of capitalism, but who do you think the sources for those books were? Leftist activists? These Wall Street tales came from angry analysts, traders, and lawyers, whose gripe was corruption of markets, not markets themselves. The “great vampire squid” piece in Rolling Stone resulted from a meeting with disgruntled heads of a New York hedge fund. Their gripe about Goldman, Sachs was that it was being insulated from capitalism’s chief regulatory mechanism, failure, by politically connected pals. Other sources were furious that politicians and regulators picked winners and losers by doing things like handing out commercial bank charters (and with them, access to discount window lending) to companies like Goldman that weren’t commercial banks.

    https://www.racket.news/p/response-to-reader

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    • ScottC's avatar
      ScottC, on November 6, 2025 at 6:47 am said:

      Hahaha…. I literally just read that and came here to post it for you!

      I think I have admitted this before, but I will do so again. You had a much better handle on him in those early years than I did.

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      • jnc4p's avatar
        jnc4p, on November 6, 2025 at 7:09 am said:

        Somewhat. One of the criticisms/comments on his style that’s true is that he does sometimes play to his audience. He’s also a natural contrarian.

        So when he was in the environment where he perceived Wall Street/capitalism excesses to be the issue then he adopted one tone. And he was also being edited at Rolling Stone.

        Now I think he believes that the situation has changed in terms of where the bigger threats to prosperity and liberty are coming from.

        I also think that when the Biden administration targeted him with the IRS and when Congressional Democrats threatened to have him prosecuted it was a radicalizing (or eye opening) experience.

        But his tone has changed.

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        • jnc4p's avatar
          jnc4p, on November 6, 2025 at 7:14 am said:

          Having said that, Taibbi ought to address his views on what differentiates Sanders from Mamdani, since Taibbi has been supportive of Sanders in the past. I think there are distinctions to be drawn especially from earlier Sanders who was much more America focused than a lot of the current DSA lot. His interview with Ezra Klein back in 2015 is still interesting ten years later:

          Ezra Klein:

          Then what are the responsibilities that we have? Someone who is poor by US standards is quite well off by, say, Malaysian standards, so if the calculation goes so easily to the benefit of the person in the US, how do we think about that responsibility?

          Bernie Sanders:

          We have a nation-state structure. I agree on that. But philosophically, the question is how do you weight it? How do you think about what the foreign aid budget should be? How do you think about poverty abroad? Bernie Sanders

          I do weigh it. As a United States senator in Vermont, my first obligation is to make certain kids in my state and kids all over this country have the ability to go to college, which is why I am supporting tuition-free public colleges and universities.

          https://www.vox.com/2015/7/28/9014491/bernie-sanders-vox-conversation

          I don’t think the current DSA crowd would view their primary responsibility as helping Americans first before helping other people in the world the way that Sanders articulated in the interview.

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        • ScottC's avatar
          ScottC, on November 6, 2025 at 9:00 am said:

          His tone has definitely changed, and in my own defense I suspect I would have been more receptive to his earlier pieces if they were framed within the context he is presenting now rather than as a condemnation of Wall Street and the finance industry as a whole. Maybe I should re-read them to see if my memory is accurate.

          Recall that the first time I really took issue with Taibbi was his Jefferson County piece, and my biggest objection was that I thought he was ignoring the primary driver of the whole problem, which was corrupt government officials, in order to demonize Wall Street.

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        • Let the mutherfuker burn!'s avatar
          Let the mutherfuker burn!, on November 6, 2025 at 9:57 am said:

          If I recall your other complaint(s) were that he had very little idea on how a lot of the trades actually worked or were properly valued. I recall Taibbi’s blame was mostly on the his perceived protected class highlighted by Jaime Diamond, but not on poor government regulation and regulatory capture. I’m curious if he believes or accepts the notion of regulatory capture.

          Finally, your issue with criticism of the so called Wall Street Bailout was that it was demonized as “costing” US taxpayers whereas your position was that it made money for US taxpayers.

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        • ScottC's avatar
          ScottC, on November 6, 2025 at 3:53 pm said:

          McWing:

          Finally, your issue with criticism of the so called Wall Street Bailout was that it was demonized as “costing” US taxpayers whereas your position was that it made money for US taxpayers.

          Yes, definitely true. Although this was a complaint about the wider narrative throughout the media/culture. Not just Taibbi.

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        • jnc4p's avatar
          jnc4p, on November 6, 2025 at 11:30 am said:

          “Maybe I should re-read them to see if my memory is accurate.”

          I think it is. I think his tone has changed as his audience has evolved.

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