All Things in Moderation

Vital Statistics:

Stocks are higher as we await Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole. Bonds and MBS are up small.

Jerome Powell will be speaking at 10:00 am today. I don’t see the prepared remarks anywhere yet.

Existing home sales rose 2% last month, according to NAR. “The ever-so-slight improvement in housing affordability is inching up home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Wage growth is now comfortably outpacing home price growth, and buyers have more choices. Condominium sales increased in the South region, where prices had been falling for the past year.”

“Near-zero growth in home prices suggests that roughly half the country is experiencing price reductions. Overall, homeowners are doing well financially. Only 2% of sales were foreclosures or short sales – essentially a historic low. The market’s health is supported by a cumulative 49% home price appreciation for a typical American homeowner from pre-COVID July 2019 to July this year,” Dr. Yun continued.

“Homebuyers are in the best position in more than five years to find the right home and negotiate for a better price. Current inventory is at its highest since May 2020, during the COVID lockdown.”

The index of leading economic indicators fell in July, according to the Conference Board. “The leading economic index for the US decreased just slightly in July,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Pessimistic consumer expectations for business conditions and weak new orders continued to weigh down the index. Meanwhile, stock prices remained a key positive support of the LEI. Initial claims for unemployment insurance were much lower in July than in June and were the second most positive component of the LEI, after contributing negatively to the index over the previous three months. While the LEI’s six-month growth rate remains negative, it improved slighlty in July—but not enough to avoid triggering the recession signal again. Despite that, The Conference Board does not currently project a recession, though we do expect the economy to weaken in H2 2025, as the negative impacts from tariffs become more visible. Overall, real GDP is projected to grow by 1.6% year-over-year in 2025, before slowing in 2026 to 1.3%.”

The stock market component of the LEI is holding the index up. The other components are deteriorating.

Filed under: Economy |