Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Stocks are lower after Nvidia said it would take a $5 billion charge against earnings for licensing fees. Bonds and MBS are up.
Mortgage applications fell 8.5% last week as purchases declined 4.9% and refis fell 12.4%. “Mortgage rates moved 20 basis points higher last week, abruptly slowing the pace of mortgage application activity with refinance volume dropping 12 percent and purchase volume falling 5 percent for the week. Purchase volume remains almost 13 percent above last year’s level, but economic uncertainty and the volatility in rates is likely to make at least some prospective buyers more hesitant to move forward with a purchase,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “One notable change last week was the full percentage point increase in the ARM share. Given the jump in rates, more borrowers are opting for the lower initial rates that come with an ARM, with initial fixed rates closer to 6 percent in our survey last week. The ARM share at 9.6 percent was the highest since November 2023, and this reflects the share of units. On a dollar basis, almost a quarter of the application volume last week was for ARMs, as borrowers with larger loans are even more likely to opt for an ARM.”
Retail sales rose 1.4% MOM in March, in line with Street expectations. Ex-vehicles and gas sales rose 0.8%, better then street expectations. February sales were revised upward as well.
On an annual basis, sales rose 4.6%. Since retail sales are not adjusted for price changes, if you subtract inflation, sales rose on an inflation-adjusted basis. The big question is what is driving the increase. One interpretation is that consumers are stocking up on goods before tariff-driven price changes take effect. The other interpretation is the economy isn’t in as bad of shape as the consensus thinks.
If you believe the consumer sentiment numbers, then you would probably go with the first interpretation: desperate consumers are spending up front to beat the price increases. On the other hand, if you look at the latest jobs report, the economy isn’t as bad as feared.
The conventional wisdom is the first interpretation: “Net, net, these are simply blow out numbers on March retail sales where the rush is on like this is one gigantic clearance sale,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. “Consumers are expecting sharply higher prices the next year and are clearing the store shelves and picking up bargains while they can.”
We have a lot of conflicting economic data out there, so it is tough to draw a definitive conclusion about what is going on out there. I suspect there is a divergence between people who consume a lot of mainstream media and those that do not.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model is scheduled to be updated today. The current estimate (from April 9) is -2.4% growth in Q1. Given this sales number, estimate is probably low. I suspect the Atlanta Fed knows something is off with their model given that they have introduced a second GDP estimate based off of gold flows which is much less dire.
US Bank reported better-than-expected Q1 earnings of $1.03 per share, a 32% increase from a year ago. Provisions for credit losses declined on both a quarterly and annual basis. Mortgage origination volume fell 8% YOY to $6.6 billion.
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
This should work out well:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/15/dnc-leader-democrats-primary/
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I am not unsympathetic to fighting incumbency, and if Hogg is actually able to use the apparatus (the party structure) to defeat incumbents, i will be impressed. I do not believe that either party’s central committee has ever been used to primary incumbents other that in the MOST extreme circumstances of, say, an incumbent convicted of a crime that refuses to quit a re-election campaign.
That may sound counter-intuitive but if you think about why the RNC and DNC’s exist, it really would be amazing.
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Letitia James was committing mortgage fraud while trying to bankrupt Trump for the same thing.
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I guess every accusation is a confession.
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Claimed a second home was a primary residence to get a better rate.
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Older documents say she was married to her father and another claiming that a dwelling was for four families rather than the actual five, all to get a lower rate.
Plus, if she claimed the Virginia house as her primary, is she allowed to be the AG of New York? Did she commit voter fraud by voting in NY and not VA?
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Talk about people in glass houses.
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An interview I mostly agree with but I suspect others here won’t.
https://archive.ph/MOtxO
I do find it annoying that when discussing the evolution of this from Bush to Trump, they omit any discussion of Obama’s claim to be able to kill American citizens without any due process.
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The piece makes a bunch of assumptions that are probably untrue. Namely that Trump is paying Bukele to house anybody other than TDA members. Also, Trump has expressed a wish to send non-TDA people there but as of yet has not. Finally, Klein asserts that Abrego has not had his day in court, when in fact he has had many days in court.
I suspect that much of this talk on Trump’s part is as a threat so as to get more illegals to self deport and to get countries that are not accepting returnees to do so. Finally, Haitians, for example, may need to perceive a worse alternative than Haiti to be motivated to leave.
All that said, what, to you, should happen to the 1.6 million illegal aliens that have deportation orders against them but have not left?
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Great writing
But Trump is a different animal. He’s dragging these dramas in the open, making the Ivies dance for their federal crumbs in the most humiliating conceivable manner, like Joe Pesci shooting at the feet of Michael “No, I thought you said, ‘I’m alright Spider’” Imperioli in Goodfellas:
https://www.racket.news/p/the-harvard-government-divorce-is?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1042&post_id=161459399&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=366b8&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
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When reached for comment Fauxahontas said, “That’s different.”
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Another good NYT focus group:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/04/18/opinion/trump-approval-focus-group.html
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Interesting piece.
https://reason.com/volokh/2025/04/19/process-formalism-in-texas-but-not-at-scotus/
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And another.
https://reason.com/volokh/2025/04/19/scotus-violates-marbury-v-madison-by-granting-ex-parte-injunction-against-executive-branch-in-its-original-jurisdiction/
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I had no idea.
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The disappointment is palpable.
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The demand for Trump the Fascist far exceeds the supply.
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Worth noting:
https://www.kenklippenstein.com/p/is-a-military-coup-unfolding-at-the
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The problem the MIC has is that Hegseth is deeply popular with the junior officers and enlisted, recruiting is way up, and most importantly, MAGA loves him. Trump dumping Hegseth would be anathema and I suspect that it may take some time to regroup but Hegseth/Trump will reassert control.
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The military brass is a bunch of ideological obama drones, who believe in the DEI shit and don’t like Hegseth’s plans to bring back warriors.
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I suspect Trump views this as simply the Deep State going after him by proxy.
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No doubt. He isn’t going to make the same mistake he made in his first term trying to appease these people. If you’re taking flack, you are over the target.
Plus it is completely disingenuous – Hegseth didn’t let Goldberg on the call, Walsh did.
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The other problem with people being held at CECOT at US behest besides due process issues:
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2025/04/trump-forever-prison-el-salvador-cecot-crime.html
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jnc:
The other problem with people being held at CECOT at US behest besides due process issues
I am not sure the author is entirely correct about indefinite detention. People with a deportation order are subject to detention, and presumably they are subject to indefinite detention to whatever degree their home country refuses to accept them back. This is why I think Trump’s only legitimate defense of the CECOT arrangement is as a contractual detention facility for deportable aliens whose country rejects repatriation. This, of course, would mean a) that those being detained are still in US custody despite being in El Salvador, depriving Trump of any claim that he can’t tell El Salvador what to do with them, b) only people with deportation orders could be sent there, and c) detention would have to cease as soon as a detainee’s home country agreed to accept deportation.
The trouble right now, if my understanding of the situation is correct, is that both b) and c) are being violated.
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My view is that Trump chose CECOT for two reasons
They had originally sent them to Guantanamo but CECOT fit their legal strategy better.
I don’t view any of this as faithfully executing the existing laws, and I expect that with all the legal challenges this is generating, Trump may end up deporting fewer illegal immigrants than Biden, Obama or Bush did.
He would have been better served just following the existing law and enforcing current deportation orders without carving out exempt categories rather than trying to pick the highest profile fights he can.
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I hate to be the turd in the punch bowl but due process/judicial review are just a shorter way of saying we are not going to deport anybody. That’s why the Aliens and Enemies act is crucial, it removes Judicial Review.
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McWing:
There are 1.6 million suspected/known criminals illegals with deportation notice. No way you’re removing even a low fraction with so called Judicial Review.
I believe that judicial review is being applied only to those subject to the Alien Enemies Act, not those who already have deportation notices issued. The AEA is not needed to deport those with deportation notices against them. It is needed to deport people who do not have such notices without going through the process of getting it. If this understanding is wrong, please do correct me.
I am not at all unsympathetic to the dilemma that Trump was put in by the Biden-created immigration crisis. Biden’s policies, probably deliberately, overloaded the immigration system, making the formal process of removing an illegal take years and years, and thus making it much harder to actually deport them. Trump is seeking ways around that process in order to more quickly get rid of the illegals with which Biden flooded the country. I understand the impulse. But here’s a question: If there are 1.6 million suspected/known criminals who already have deportation orders against them, why is Trump not first going after them? They are the low hanging fruit, both legally and politically. Why complicate things on both the legal and political front by invoking the AEA and trying to deport people without formal deportation orders when there are so many that actually have deportation orders that have yet to be deported? By using the AEA to get rid of less than 200 people that don’t already have deportation orders against them when he has 1.6 million that do, he is picking a fight that gains him little to nothing, and one which he could very well lose.
Also, as an aside, it is a fight that, as a purely objective matter, I would say he probably should lose. In my view, the invocation of the AEA in order to remove Venezuelan gang members is just as much an abuse of executive authority as was the Biden admin’s use of its parole discretion and invocation of the “temporary and extraordinary” clause granting TPS in order to import and “legalize” 500,000 illegal Venezuelans into the country. One might argue that the latter abuse of authority justifies the former, but it is an abuse of authority nonetheless.
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I believe that judicial review is being applied only to those subject to the Alien Enemies Act
Which specifically excludes Article III courts, that is why it’s being used.
If there are already 1.6 million suspected/known criminals who already have deportation orders against them, why is Trump not first going after them?,
Other than those expelled under Rubio’s order, i.e. Hamasnicks, all others, including Van Hollen’s ami, had existing deportation orders. Trump is trying to also use the AnE Act so that the immigration courts are not completely clogged (as they are now) with the 15-20 milling other wetbacks in the country.
Also, as an aside, it is a fight that, as a purely objective matter, I would say he probably should lose. In my view, the invocation of the AEA in order to remove Venezuelan gang members is just as much an abuse of executive authority as was the Biden admin’s use of its parole discretion and invocation of the “temporary and extraordinary” clause granting TPS in order to import and “legalize” 500,000 illegal Venezuelans into the country. One might argue that the latter abuse of authority justifies the former, but it is an abuse of authority nonetheless.
And yet here we are, an impasse. I do not think even Congress can resolve this as the courts will chew up any Congressional result for literally decades. How does one overcome the initial Executive abuse, if not further abuse? Jefferson shrugged his shoulders and bought Louisiana despite not believing the Constitution allowed. We’re all, ultimately glad he did but it is impossible not to argue it was Executive overreach.
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McWing:
Other than those expelled under Rubio’s order, i.e. Hamasnicks, all others, including Van Hollen’s ami, had existing deportation orders.
I am not at all sure that is true. My understanding is that many (I am unlcear on the exact number) of the declared TdA Venezuelans that were sent to CECOT did not have deportation orders yet. That is why, I thought, he had to invoke the AEA, and that is also why the admin argued in court that not all of the CECOT deportees were sent there under AEA authority, limiting the court’s reach as to those who were sent under other authority. If all of the Venezuelan’s sent to CECOT already had existing deportation orders, then why did he invoke the AEA in order to deport them?
Trump is trying to also use the AnE Act so that the immigration courts are not completely clogged (as they are now) with the 15-20 milling other wetbacks in the country.
But is he really? The AEA has been invoked against members of TdA, which comprises just a tiny fraction of the 15-20 million cases backlogging the courts. This will have virtually no effect on the backlog.
And even it would, my point is simply that this is not a fight he needs to have right now if there are already 1.6 million people with deportation orders that still have yet to be deported. Why not do them first? There are logistic and physical limitations to the number of people who can be deported in a given space of time. I have no idea what that limitation is and whether he is capable of deporting people faster than the immigration courts are capable of issuing deportation orders, but if he isn’t, then there are always going to be more people with deportation orders than he can actually deport, at least until the backlog is entirely gone, so there is no need get around official orders of deportation orders anyway. And if he can deport faster than the courts can issue deportation orders, then eventually he will get that 1.6 million number down to zero, at which point he can then have the legal and political fight over expanding the means by which he is deporting people. But either way, there isn’t a need to have that fight right now.
I do not think even Congress can resolve this as the courts will chew up any Congressional result for literally decades.
Actually I think Congress could fix quite a lot quite easily, if it had the will. The first thing Congress could do to fix things would be to amend immigration law making all applications for any status to remain in the US available only to people entering at a port of entry. Currently even people crossing illegally have up to a full year to apply for asylum, and have other means of avoiding deportation available to them indefinitely, things like withholding of removal orders or claims about fear of torture. I think crossing the border illegally should automatically preclude you from claiming asylum or any other status that might delay or prevent removal. People who are genuinely trying escape persecution, governmental or otherwise, should have to declare it either immediately upon arrival in the US at a port of entry, or upon the expiration of whatever status they might have had allowing them to be in the US. Trying to avoid detection and conveniently waiting until after you get caught to declare a fear of persecution back home should simply not be allowed, and should result in automatic expulsion, no exceptions. This would greatly expedite the deportation process and alleviate much of the work of immigration courts.
How does one overcome the initial Executive abuse, if not further abuse?
As I said above, even if you think a counter abuse of power is needed, subjecting TdA members to the AEA on the tendentious grounds that it is an invading terrorist force isn’t going to accomplish the task anyway. Do you have an even bigger abuse of power in mind?
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FAIR does a, pardon the pun, fair recap of the Boasberg case here,
https://www.fairus.org/legislation/executive/doj-fights-back-alien-enemies-act-deportation-case
and in it I can find no mention of the TDA dudes being under other deportation orders, therefore, I must concede the point that they were not under multiple deportation orders, or even any deportation orders.
And even it would, my point is simply that this is not a fight he needs to have right now if there are already 1.6 million people with deportation orders that still have yet to be deported.
Not being Trump, I cannot definetively say why he chose to invoke this now but I suspect as a mechanism to get the inevitable judicial process rolling. Further, he has not stopped deporting those with existing deportation notices, the issue is rounding them up as they are, not surprisingly, hard(er) to find.
But is he really? The AEA has been invoked against members of TdA, which comprises just a tiny fraction of the 15-20 million cases backlogging the courts. This will have virtually no effect on the backlog.
My guess is that the TDA are the test case and that if it works, then he would attempt to expand it’s use to other groups of wetbacks.
making all applications for any status to remain in the US available only to people entering at a port of entry
My understating is that is already the law though the Executive branch has some level of discretion. Is your position that any Executive discretion should be removed?
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McWing:
My understating is that is already the law though the Executive branch has some level of discretion.
Unfortunately I don’t think it is. If I understand it correctly, anyone inside the US, no matter how they got there, legally or illegally, is statutorily allowed to apply for asylum for up to a year after arrival. Since immigration courts are established within the executive branch, you could say that whether or not to grant those applications is part of executive discretion. But the ability to enter the court process in order to make the application and have it heard is not discretionary.
Is your position that any Executive discretion should be removed?
Yes. I think that immigration courts should be prohibited from hearing asylum claims, or any other claims, from anyone who has not entered via a port of entry. Immigrants should have to choose whether to openly enter the process we have set up to hear asylum claims, or to sneak into the country illegally. Choosing the latter should close off the ability to choose the former. Otherwise it just becomes a time consuming, last ditch lottery ticket and little more than a way to game the system.
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One final note, Bush and Obama changed border turnback classication to deportation and their numbers, as a result, are artificially inflected. There are 1.6 million suspected/known criminals illegals with deportation notice. No way you’re removing even a low fraction with so called Judicial Review.
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jnc:
I don’t view any of this as faithfully executing the existing laws
As I said to McWing, as a purely objective matter I agree. But in that, he is no different to virtually any of his recent predecessors. Which was the last president that did not disingenuously invoke authority, given to him for one purpose, in order to achieve an entirely different purpose? It is hard to condemn Trump for playing the same game all of his predecessors played in pursuit of their own policy agendas.
He would have been better served just following the existing law and enforcing current deportation orders without carving out exempt categories rather than trying to pick the highest profile fights he can.
I agree. A willingness to engage in a fight is a good characteristic, but a desire to engage in a fight for its own sake is not. I think sometimes Trump confuses the two.
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