Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down.
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators declined 0.1% in December, according to the Conference Board. “The Index fell slightly in December failing to sustain November’s increase,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Low consumer confidence about future business conditions, still relatively weak manufacturing orders, an increase in initial claims for unemployment, and a decline in building permits contributed to the decline. Still, half of the 10 components of the index contributed positively in December. Moreover, the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates were less negative, signaling fewer headwinds to US economic activity ahead. Nonetheless, we expect growth momentum to remain strong to start the year and US real GDP to expand by 2.3% in 2025.”
The big negative drivers were weak new orders from the ISM report, the slope of the yield curve, and negative consumer confidence. The big positive components were financial: easing credit conditions and the performance of the stock market.
D.R. Horton reported first quarter earnings. Revenues were down YOY as deliveries fell. Gross margins declined as the company is battling affordablity issues by offering mortgage buy-downs. “Although the level of new and existing home inventories has increased from historically low levels, the supply of homes at affordable price points is generally still limited, and demographics supporting housing demand remain favorable. Despite continued affordability challenges and competitive market conditions, incentives such as mortgage rate buydowns have helped to address affordability and spur demand. Additionally, given our focus on affordable product offerings, we have continued to start and sell more of our homes with smaller floor plans to meet homebuyer demand.”
You would think that with such a dearth of starter homes, D.R. Horton would be plowing cash back into the business. It is not. Over the past 12 months it has used all of its operating cash flow buying back stock and paying dividends, despite the fact that the operating business is generating an ROE approaching 20%. As a general rule, if a company expects to earn higher than its cost of capital on the underlying business, it expands the business. If it doesn’t, it should return that capital to shareholders. It is surprising then that DHI is eschewing profitable business opportunities and instead buying back its own stock.
Donald Trump has ordered “emergency relief” on housing affordability, and plans to attack regulatory costs: “Hardworking families today are overwhelmed by the cost of fuel, food, housing, automobiles, medical care, utilities, and insurance. Moreover, many Americans are unable to purchase homes due to historically high prices, in part due to regulatory requirements that alone account for 25 percent of the cost of constructing a new home according to recent analysis.”
I am not sure how much of that 25% is addressable at the Federal level and how much is local building / environmental codes. That said, it is encouraging that the government is taking a look at the issue.
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
This tweet is fascinating.
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Play stupid games…
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I assume the replies are something along the lines of: Trump would have to be a complete idiot to seek the counsel of any of those duplicitous, conniving, manipulative lying sacks of shit, and you must be an idiot for thinking any sane person would want to seek their counsel after what they did.
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The most charitable interpretation was that they got the intel wrong, and even then they look like complete morons.
Nobody wants the advice of mendacious morons
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That is an awesome story! Is it true? Is it leverage? These are glorious times!!
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For example, how do you parse and understand this paragraph?
” The Washington Post reviewed documentation reflecting the speaker’s office’s concern ahead of the June meeting between him and Loudermilk that corroborated the person’s account, but has not seen the purported sexually explicit messages nor identified who sent them or whether Hutchinson responded.”
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Someone sent an E-mail referencing it without the exact screenshots.
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It is an exceedingly opaque paragraph and I am unclear on what was actually seen and who would have been the author of it. The best I can make out is an aide to either the committee of leadership exchanged messages (unclear if texts or emails) about holding off on subpoenaing Hutchinson. It’s unclear from the paragraph if the reason for why there was a desire to wait on subpoenaing Hutchinson was in whatever was shared however. It’s so convoluted and opaque as to make me wonder if the sexts was the real reason for the requested delay, as in, were they mentioned in what the WaPo reporter claimed to have seen.
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Popehat was funny:
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Ok, didn’t see this coming:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/01/23/cassidy-hutchinson-lawmakers-texts/
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Reposted as the original was accidentally from a work account.
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Love the title
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/01/john-bolton-security-clearances-trump/681418/
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In the words of Omar Little, if you go for the king, you best not miss
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“… deeply mysterious” is a pretty hilarious statement.
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Its a Scooby Doo mystery. Can’t imagine the no-show jobs they were getting as payment
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The mystery goes away if you see them all as unprincipled and manipulative assholes who saw their job as controlling who was in the Whitehouse and could not give two shits about the country, the citizens, or the actual job they were supposed to be doing. Intelligence often attracts people who think it’s their job to traffic in lies and falsehoods and manipulations in order the control outcomes.
Credibility is only one of the tools in their toolbox to get what they want, and they rightly guessed that—assuming Trump remained out of power and eventually went to prison—their collective bald-faced lies would be forgotten.
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I think it sets a good precedent. Bureaucrats shouldn’t be sabotaging whoever is President.
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[Narrarator: It was not in fact “deeply mysterious”]
https://www.racket.news/p/ex-cia-chief-john-brennan-should
I will give credit to Morell for at least giving a straight answer.
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“They now have reason to believe that this protection is a conditional perk, like a nice parking space, that can be taken away for talking smack on CNN.”
Am I the only person who believes they should think that? They chose to lie, are currently lying about their original lie,have showed no contrition about using their reputation for both their own gain and as a means to manipulate the outcome of the election for reasons either “principled” or ignoble … why should they continue to get protection on the tax payers dime when they explicitly refused to do their actual job AND flipped the bird to the tax payer and lied straight to our faces?
Yes, I think you should give up secret service protection if choose to do the opposite of what you are supposed to be doing. I have little doubt the violated their oaths of office to try and influence the election (and perhaps signal their virtue and position themselves for cushy media jobs), so they don’t deserve tax payer funded security details.
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Has anyone been punished over the Russian Collusion Hoax? There needs to be some accountability there too
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Fascinating watching how quickly the left coordinates its talking points over Trump’s review of expenditures.
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Trump & the progressive media love each other. Each is amplifying the effects of his executive orders for their own reasons and feeding off each other.
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Twitter is just democrat politician after democrat politician along with the usual activist suspects saying that Trump just ended Medicaid. The portal was down in several states. The left is claiming it had to happen because of some funding dispute.
Guarantee you it was ordered by a Democrat to create this exact talking point
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There is already a term for this. Malicious Compliance. Like canceling the Tuskeegee Airmen
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Pure bullshit:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/28/us/politics/tulsi-gabbard-trump-intel-pick-watch-list.html
Yes, the Vatican. That known terrorist organization that blows up a lot of planes.
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Well, I’m convinced.
They’re rubbing it in our faces.
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Welp, whoever made that decision just volunteered to get fired.
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Really good interview
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It’s worse than I thought:
https://hollymathnerd.substack.com/p/next-step-in-the-war-on-kids
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Lotta murderous trannies of late.
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Interesting choice of words in the headline. I guess misgendering is permissible to prevent women / LGBTQ from looking bad?
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