Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Stocks are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down yet again.
The move in mortgage rates over the past month has been astounding. This is the Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Index for the 30 year conforming mortgage.
The 10 year bond yield has risen as well, but MBS spreads are widening. The ^MOVE index, which tracks bond market volatility is up some 42% over the past month, so that is probably driving it as well.
The media is claiming that this rise in rates is due to fears that the deficit will rise after the election. I guess that is possible, but fiscal rectitude in Washington kind of left the building circa 2009, so I can’t imagine that it is all of a sudden mattering now. The trader in me thinks this will turn out to be a “buy the rumor, sell the fact situation” and rates will peak right before the election, and then come back down as people unwind their Trump trades.
Homebuilder D.R. Horton reported fourth quarter numbers that disappointed the Street, and the stock is getting slammed pre-open. Sales and guidance disappointed.
“Despite continued affordability challenges and competitive market conditions, our net sales orders in the fourth quarter increased slightly from the prior year to 19,035 homes. Our sales pace was in line with normal seasonality from the third to fourth quarter but was below our expectations. While mortgage rates have decreased from their highs earlier this year, many potential homebuyers expect rates to be lower in 2025. We believe that rate volatility and uncertainty are causing some buyers to stay on the sidelines in the near term. To help spur demand and address affordability, we are continuing to use incentives such as mortgage rate buydowns, and we have continued to start and sell more of our homes with smaller floor plans. The supply of both new and existing homes at affordable price points is still generally limited, and demographics supporting housing demand are favorable. With a focus on affordable product offerings, 37,400 homes in inventory and continued improvement in our construction cycle times, we are well positioned for fiscal 2025.”
Home prices rose 4.2% annually in August, which is below the 4.8% annual average. “Home price growth is beginning to show signs of strain, recording the slowest annual gain since mortgage rates peaked in 2023,” says Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets. “As students went back to school, home price shoppers appeared less willing to push the index higher than in the summer months. Prices continue to decelerate for the past six months, pushing appreciation rates below their long-run average of 4.8%.
After smoothing for seasonality in the data, home prices continued to reach all-time highs, for the 15th month in a row. “Regionally, all markets continue to remain positive, barely,” Luke continued. “Denver posted the slowest annual gain of all markets this year, dropping below Portland for the first time since the spring. The Northeast remains the best performing region, with the strongest gains for over a year. Currently, only New York, Las Vegas, and Chicago markets are at an all-time high. Comparing average gains of traditional red and blue states highlight a slight advantage for home price markets of blue states. With stronger gains in the Northeast and West than the South, blue states have outperformed red states dating back to July 2023.”
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
I am absolutely fascinated by this diary and comments.
Do Democrats think that women lack agency? The comments fascinate me in that each author firmly believes that millions of women are trapped in loveless marriages frought with violence and vote only Republican.
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It is all about abortion.
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And a need to find an alternate explanation for why people won’t vote for the preferred candidate that doesn’t involve the candidates own shortcomings.
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They are insane. There needs to be something beyond Trump Derangement Syndrome to encompass how deranged they are. Both my children know I’m voting for Trump; both with almost certainly vote for Harris. Wife is on the fence but again she should vote for whomever she wants. I’m not telling anybody who to vote for and would never. I’ll tell them how I am voting, and why. And that’s it.
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Latest NYT focus group.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/29/opinion/focus-group-michigan-voters.html
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Interesting how many raised their hand on the economy being a major issue. I think that hurts Kamala no matter how resistant to Trump this particular group of voters is.
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One of the only worthwhile pieces I’ve seen in the MSM about the Trump rally in New York.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/29/trump-madison-square-garden-rally-photos/
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Trump should figure out how to make this into a campaign ad.
https://www.kenklippenstein.com/p/gen-milley-tells-bankers-thank-you
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This is good:
“Big Mommy is Not Coming to Save Us
there are no refs, there are no refs, there are no refs
Freddie deBoer
Oct 29, 2024″
https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/big-mommy-is-not-coming-to-save-us
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This is good. He nails NYT. But he says the Democrats are objectively a center-right party and that’s not true—-after all the talk of NYT maintaining its fig leaf of neutrality, it’s odd he doesn’t observe that the Democrats “centrism” is also a fig-leaf. Everything center-right from the Harris campaign is a lie, as it was from Biden, outside of foreign policy. Where even there it’s more center or center left than center right.
But yes, a blistering analysis of NYT.
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On the Marxist scale, that’s where they fall.
Probably on the European scale as well.
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He is still stuck in 1930s Marxist theory, focusing on class, not grasping that the Left has changed its focus from class to identity.
Democrats most certainly have an identity. It is identity politics.
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His characterization of liberals as neurotic, front-row kids of helicopter parents is spot on, though.
And I think it partially explains why Trump strikes such a nerve – For the most part, these front-row kids are concentrated in careers which are hard to get into, but don’t pay all that well. They studied their asses off, and got straight As to make $80k.
They resent the crap out of C-students who went to frat parties and now make multiples of what they make because they have social skills are are good at sales.
The world rewards people who can sell, and it doesn’t care so much about robots who can regurgitate what the professor told them. And it pisses them off to no end.
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They resent the crap out of C-students who went to frat parties and now make multiples of what they make because they have social skills are are good at sales.
I flunked out of college and then, after a number of years, graduated with a 2.0000001. I’ve been in sales my whole career and have made more money than I deserve, so this hits home. I guess I am the bane of their existence.
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Its why they hated Reagan and GWB too.
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“They studied their asses off, and got straight As to make $80k.”
And it’s even worse for the ones who went into media careers.
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I don’t believe Kamala Harris ever studied her ass off, or legitimately got straight As. Or can regurgitate anything her professors told her.
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What a magnificent spectacle!
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There is just something so fucking appealing about the guy, that I guess is repellant to a certain class of hoity-toity sorts.
Anyway, I voted today. Did my part! Although Tennessee was already going to go for Trump no matter.
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Good piece on the recent campaign visuals:
https://patrickwitty.substack.com/p/the-fast-food-era-of-political-photography
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McDonald’s fries beats Doritos, every day of the week, all day long.
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Totally do this.
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Maybe White Dudes For Harris do
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This was from 2017. It was as stupid then as it is now. I would prefer guys not take their clothes off in the locker room at the gym. When I change at the gym it’s only to get dressed for work, and I’ve basically got shirt and tie on before I shuffle off the sweatpants and pull the work pants on, for a total of 10 seconds of bare legs. That’s how you do it.
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The level of cluelessness combined with shameless self regard is truly awesome to behold here:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/11/jeff-bezos-washington-post-nonendorsement/680470/
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“by Chuck Todd” lol!
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Chuck apparently wrote a similar story back in 2018. This is apparently his beat, and apparently he learns nothing in the interim.
Still not reading the whole thing, because will not subscribe. Anyone knows an easy way to read the whole without paying The Atlantic a plug nickel, I might. 😀
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/09/its-time-for-the-press-to-stop-complainingand-to-start-fighting-back/569224/
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Last bit I can read: “These practices are at least as old as the Gutenberg press. But antipathy toward the media right now has risen to a level I’ve never personally experienced before. The closest parallel in recent American history is the hostility to reporters in the segregated South in the 1950s and ’60s.”
The self-regard. The self-flattery. “People who don’t like the fact we lie through our teeth to create a narrative we think will inspire Correct Thinking in the rubes are like the bigots of the Jim Crow south!”
“I am very much like Martin Luther King,” thinks Chuck Todd to himself, admiring his strong chin in the mirror.
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My favorite genre of the Poor Me media is the conceit of being worthy of being put in a concentration camp. As if a Trump victory would somehow result in his need to incarcerate them instead of proving to them they are utterly lack any influence or importance and there would be not point.
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Correct. Nobody is rounding up the propagandist who failed to influence anything and put them in a camp. They are largely irrelevant, but imagine that Trump sits around, seething about them personally because they are So Important and Influential.
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Try using this link as a way around a paywall.
https://archive.is/
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Thanks. Will try that at home. Doesn’t work at work, cuz outside of the US.
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The self-regard is unsurprising, and I guess it’s connected, but the cluelessness just bewilders me. How can they be so blind? I’ve worked lots of places, and can see the flaws in the culture, the set-up, why people might see the organization a certain way, yada yada. These are not invisible things. You have to willfully ignore them.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/651977/americans-trust-media-remains-trend-low.aspx
This is publicly available information. There is no way people saying bad things about the media gets 69% of the public have little or no trust in it.
While I expect no better from the Atlantic under Powell-Jobs, in the second paragraph it starts doing exactly the thing that makes people not trust it WHILE trying to blame Trump, Musk, and Thiel.
There is no campaign to convince anybody that “a free press” is the “enemy of the people”–rather, that–quite specifically–they aren’t a member of a free press in any meaningful way. So immediately, distorting and lying–as they have essentially admitted publicly, at least some of them, that they MUST do when faced with an existential threat like Trump. Which average people don’t like and don’t believe.
The reason is implicit in Bezoz’s statement, which the author of the article quotes but seems to completely miss:
The press–and this writer as well–are not accurate. They don’t appear to care about accuracy or even really understand what accuracy means. Credibility is something that you get from being honest, unbiased, and providing context in your reporting–and they don’t. People believe the media is biased because it obviously is, and that bias is far too tilted towards the interests of a left-leaning interventionist state.
I don’t subscribe to The Atlantic and won’t, so I’m not reading the rest (I can’t), but Chuck Todd lacks the credibility for me to assume he says anything more self-aware or humble later in the article.
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Shellenberger talked about it
https://www.public.news/p/narcissistic-wounding-behind-media?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=279400&post_id=151046094&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=366b8&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
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It’s truly amazing how fast progressives will turn on their own:
https://x.com/zackbeauchamp/status/1852353282749915412
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Neera Tanden jumps into the breach.
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That idiot former Rep and Never Trumper Joe Walsh got his ass handed to him by Aaron Rupar over pointing out what Trump actually said.
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Their fundamental error was that they expected the male vote to remain unchanged. It didn’t.
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Well, they also expect that running the political equivalent of the Gillette ads aren’t going to alienate any men. Which I doubt is wise. They’ve run multiple ads/campaign shots characterizing men as sexist and “scared of women” if they don’t vote for Kamala, Michelle Obama’s speech about how men who don’t for Kamala want their wives or daughters to die on an operating table because they couldn’t get a safe abortion, and that recent ad showing women being bullied by their husbands to vote for Trump and (spoiler!) secretly voting for Kamala.
These are terrible campaign pitches. And seem designed to alienate men: “This is how we look at you. You are horrible. Vote for us!”
And some other stuff that’s been: “Real men are effeminate,” messages. “Be more effeminate and less masculine, and vote Democrat. But also Tim Walz wears a flannel shirt and shoots a shotgun.” It’s so sloppy and awful.
That their poll numbers are as good as they are suggest to me a lot of people just don’t pay attention. None of this is the way to win votes. I mean, Trump could do much better, but what the Dems are doing is just awful.
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The left turns on anyone who tries to be objective and rational and fact-based about The Evil Other.
Which is how they eventually end up alienating a lot of their rational, more fact-based supporters who then end up spending more time with conservatives, realizing that–while they may not agree on everything–they’re actually way better than they thought. Musk seemed literally shocked at the Trump rally about how enthusiastically he was embraced.
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When you think that Rogan was a Bernie Bro, you realize how utterly awful the left’s strategy has been .
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Exactly. Musk was an Obama fan. Ana Kasparian was an outright lefty and owns a chunk of Young Turks so her divorce from them won’t be pretty I expect, but she’s sick of the Dems and the left.
They have no issue with any of this; they immediately just turn on whoever has abandoned the true faith and all them “infidel”. But I’m not sure how sustainable that is. Yes there is a percentage that will take any lie, any flip flop, and desertion and stay faithful, like Job. But a lot of people won’t. I’m surprised they haven’t driven Bill Maher further to the right yet. That might be coming.
I feel like the NeverTrumpers jumped from a swaying ship onto a sinking ship. Or a shrinking ship. The only thing keeping the Democrats from being utterly destroyed in this election will be how bad the GOP and the Trump camp are at campaigning (and possibly getting out the vote). I still think he will win (but I did in 2020 too). Yet I think the Democrats are leaving so many openings for Republicans or Team Trump to sweep in and take their voters and they don’t do it. Eh, is what it is.
Rather than have the dumb insult comic open in Madison Square Garden open for Trump he should have opened it with a Dem-style race-baiter, picking four or five of the biggest black conservatives on YouTube and have them talk for an hour about their favorite things about Trump and what they feel being conservative has done for them, or what turned them to the right.
The Trump campaign has money. They should have had a road show of surrogates for a couple of weeks, someone reviewing and picking some of the best conservative Hispanics and Blacks and Women and consciously do rallies that were “I love the blacks!” And “I love the Hispanics!” In specific states, and hour of them, then an hour of him riffing, etc. And I’m sure there are better strategies but still … I would liked to see more better campaigning from Trump.
But I digress. Point being, yes. I really feel like the Dems and the left have been seriously fucking up and now too many of them are too sure of their righteousness to backtrack even as they lose voters and supporters. Which will cost them. I think.
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Kamala has supposedly raised $1B over the past month.
I think with the MSM’s general decline in esteem of the general population, the value of political advertising is falling as well.
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There’s such a thing as “too much of a good thing”. When political ads are barely distinguishable from CBS and NPR and ABC and MSNBC and often CNN and definitely WaPo and The Washington Post and all the late night talk shows and the day time talkers … they can’t move the needle. Especially when none of it resonates outside the bubble. GOtV efforts may be helpful.
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Absolutely sublime.
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The US would have to be mad to get in the middle of China and Taiwan.
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Taiwan cannot even meets its military recruiting goals. If Taiwanese aren’t will to fight for their country, why should we? Ditto Ukraine – hundreds of thousands of fighting age males have left the country.
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US needs to incentivize the construction of high quality chip fabs.
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I noticed on one of Frum’s later tweets: He thinks MAGA wants to invade / blockade Mexico?
Really?
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These are not serious people. And to think we were basing a nation’s foreign policy on these folks.
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I am surprised anyone listens to them any more.
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Trump wants to drone the cartels. Probably wants use SEALS as well a la Sicario.
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Loose use of the word “betray”. What he really means is “try to negotiate a peace or settlement or achieve goals through shows of power rather than do what David Frum wants”.
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For once, I agree with President Biden!
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And this point not much Biden does is going to affect the race. But no doubt he’s still giving Kamala ulcers.
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ShoeOnHead is a self-identified left-wing YouTuber who attributes far too much good to Democrat policies, was a Bernie Bro, but doesn’t like the Democrats. She’s very Pro-Man and thinks the Democrats are going to get what’s coming to them good and hard because of how they, the media, and the majority of left think shitting on men is a great strategy.
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The left is “A nagging, scolding fat woman with blue hair, barging into everyone’s spaces and culturally colonizing them. Change this, Change That.”
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I honestly think the Democrats are more Karen in 2024 than they were in 2016 or 2020,and I did not think that was possible.
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Than 2020? I don’t think so. Than 2016, for sure. It’s that Trump won in 2016 that broken the current crop and they’ve been off their nut in the new mode ever since.
One of the most Karen-y things about them is that for normies and righties alike, I think we find ourselves constantly thinking: “Do they hear themselves? Can they possibly hear what they are saying? What do they think they sound like?”
They seem completely unaware of how awful and crazy they have to appear to anyone outside the cult. Inside, fine. Obviously Trump is literally Hitler and just called for a firing squad to execute Peanut the squirrel. And J.D. Vance makes his wife wear a dog collar and walk on all fours while reciting the Lord’s Prayer. I mean, duh!
But anyone outside the ever-harder-left Democrat-legacy-media bubble looks at them like they look at Trump. And that’s without even trying to look into how detached from reality their lies and general delusion actually is. They’ve moved from “being wrong in ways you kind of have to be deep into politics to know” to just being wrong in ways that evoke visceral “ewww” and “you can’t be serious”.
The old lefties that hated Reagan back in the 80s but now love the new left make me scratch my head. Reagan was a warmonger according to them, Meese was all about the censorship, while the left was all about war being bad and certainly freedom of speech. They were also big on freedom of religion as I recall. Also important to be colorblind to race and treat women as equals and so on, and there’s been so much inversion on the left now I can’t believe more of the oldsters aren’t peeling off.
I wouldn’t think they were all Saul Alinsky types where every pronouncement in favor of free speech or individual rights was just a cynical ploy to placate the masses while gaining power. But maybe so.
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It certainly is.
I worry that so few people understand there needs to be balance. It’s good that the right doesn’t enjoy complete hegemonic political and cultural power because humans are flawed and even most avatars of liberty start doing damage when they are powerful people in the dominant group. However, it’s not good that the left enjoys such cultural and political power, unchecked. Having so much of the culture and now the corporate world and owning the deep state and now military leadership and so on … the more the left has grown in power, the more poisonous and curdled it has gotten (all while fantasizing that Trump is some dictatorial maniac while it is their side that holds 80%+ of societal power). Society needs more alternative power centers than just, by pure luck and temporarily, SCotUS. And I guess Joe Rogan.
It’s hard for blue-haired land-whales to come in and culturally colonize you when they don’t hold 80% of the cultural power. When they have to answer to others and there are organic consequences to bullying and overreach. And not every such invasion can be taken to the Supreme Court or discussed in long-format on Rogan.
The left needs to lose a lot of its power. It’s just hard for that to happen when they are all so fucking rich and have so much of other people’s money to play with.
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Brent, think the big China real estate crash is finally here?
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/04/business/china-foreclosures-mortgages.html
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It seems like every nation that goes through a multi-decade period of exceptional growth ends up with a real estate bubble and will go through a Depression.
Think the US from 1900 to 1929, Japan from 1970-1989 and China from 2000 to today.
They have entire cities that are vacant, and the one thing about vacant real estate is that it develops problems quickly and becomes more expensive to fix than it is worth. The loans backing such properties are probably worth 30 cents on the dollar.
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Wouldn’t you think China is a different case? Wasn’t much of that construction done without respect to the market for it, but to artificially “boost” the economy and project an outward appearance of prosperity?
Rather than overheated markets, which I think would be more of what happens in Western countries.
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Jon Stewart is still annoying in his new incarnation, but occasionally he does have some spot on points:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/04/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-jon-stewart.html
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Stewart is very smart, but like a lot of very smart guys who often cannot see the forest for the trees, he’s spent far too much time inside the Hollywood culture bubble. If he could escape it a little bit more he’d be a hell of a cultural commentator. But when Stewart is not grinding on an agenda he can be extremely appealing.
Nothing has ever made Noah Trevor remotely appealing.
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Whether you agree with him or not, I’d say this is one of the few celebrity endorsement ads that’s done well.
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I think celebrity endorsements are bad ideas, for both candidate and celebrity. So doing them at all means they aren’t done very well.
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There never was an anti-war left, Republicans just pick enemies that lefties like.
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I think there was an anti-war left … when there was a draft. Conscription was uniting to the left during Vietnam. And I think it would have been hard to find an enemy that would have made them pro-war—-if a draft was involved.
There are no anti-war lefty politicians, however. Nor will you find anyone truly anti-war amongst the leftist elite. So definitely applies with Cheney and the ladies of The View.
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I
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I lived through that era and remember having beer with two other couples one night in early 1967. One of the other men was a young assistant psych prof. He asked me what I was going to do about the war and I told him I had already enlisted for Navy OCS, and hoped I’d learn how to helm a destroyer.
He then asked if I was for the war, and I said I hoped it would end soon. So he told me that by enlisting I was as bad as the Germans who were silent while the Nazis killed the Jews.
I told him there was simply no comparison, that what he suggested was inapt. He then asked my friend Bill [who became a Silicon Valley lawyer later] if he, too, had an “identity crisis”. Bill paused, then pulled out his drivers license and inspected it, then put it away, and said “No.”
The young prof made his date leave with him then, even though she was the sister of my date.
We did not miss him.
There was an anti-war left.
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I bet that professor would have supported a draft and using US troops if the goal was to prop-up or even re-install (had he not been shot) Allende.
Lefties were pretty pro Fascism until 6/22/41.
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The professor, maybe. Assuming he wouldn’t have been drafted.
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Mark! So good to see you.
I have a hard time imagining a war or military action that wouldn’t have a large anti-war contingent with a draft lottery. Conscription tends to produce peaceniks.
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That’s a great story and a perfect retort by your friend Bill.
What ended up happening with Navy OCS?
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In the early 20th century, it was Republicans who were anti-war.
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Voted in person today, probably with the least enthusiasm I’ve ever had.
In person voting logistics in Virginia continue to be well run. This year is the first time I recall them switching out the paper voter rolls to validate your registration with iPads. They are set up with scanning software on the iPad that reads the driver’s license bar code so that sped things up.
Actual voting has a paper trail. The voter roll validation person prints out a ticket for you with your name and Congressional district, State House District and State Senate district info, which is then exchanged for a pre-printed paper ballot that’s the same for everyone.
The paper ballot is then marked with black pen for optical scanning and fed into a scanner that determines if it’s valid or spoiled right there and added to the tally, and then physically saved.
So they have both automated records of who came to vote and the automated tally available the moment the polls close, and the paper tickets listing exactly who showed up at the poll and the original hand filled out paper ballots for auditing purposes.
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I voted early and with enthusiasm, pleased to be adding my vote to Trump’s tally, also to vote against congressman Steve Cohen fruitlessly as he always wins.
Experience sounds similar. License scan, printed ballot, vote on machine, machine fills out ballot, take ballot to scanner and it counts my vote and ballot is dropped into some kind of lockbox. I find it sufficient.
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Hi Kev. I wrote a comment but it got swallowed. It was a lament on how voters do not pay close attention to local races which affect their lives most directly.
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Really great point and that’s probably why the Federal government has been allowed to usurp so much power.
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Indeed. I should pay closer attention than I do, but I try to participate. Local is usually more relevant to quality of life. Always try to look up any ballot measures ahead of voting for sure.
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Interesting piece. Useful recap of recent history.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/01/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-gary-gerstle.html
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Thank God for public education.
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Hey, I work in public education.
And it awful. But teaching cursive ans penmanship is mostly going away. Charter schools don’t teach it, more and more private schools don’t. Signature requirement may be a bridge too far, and they need to start doing something else. Retina scan or something.
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Not gonna lie, I was convinced Trump was going to lose up till Florida went to him by what? 14 points?
Stunned right now.
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And looks like he will win the fictional “popular vote” too.
How long until the rioting starts?
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Soon. Not sure how energetic it will be. Riots will be planned for inauguration and maybe certification day. They believed Trump could stop the transfer of power, maybe they think they can too.
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Based on my social media feed this morning what they are doing about it is:
1. Turning all profile pictures into a solid black circle or square (Resistance!)
2. Stating that they can’t believe that people voted against their interests (not that they have ever bothered to ask the people in question what their interests actually are)
3. Asking anyone who voted for Trump or a third party candidate to identify themselves so that they can de-friend/block them.
4. Stating that maybe they will accept them back once the heretics realize the error of their ways and ask the poster for forgiveness.
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So: learned no lessons at all from the loss. Check!
Want to make Republican shifts in the electorate permanent (the left has to do that, as the Republicans surely won’t): Check!
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I thought he would win—but my predictions have been wrong more than right. But turned out I was right this time.
Not stunned but gratified he took the popular vote. Takes away one of their stupid arguments, anyway.
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So, what happens now if Juan Merchan sentences Trump to 15 years?
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There is no reason why he could not serve as POTUS while in jail, technically. Probably be the safest place for him as I think between now and January 20th will be the most dangerous time, physically, for Trump.
I think the judge gives him 6-12 months to be served after his term.
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I think he goes Andrew Jackson on him.
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Cue the panic.
What’s next? Rand Paul for Commerce Secretary? OMB? CDC?
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