Morning Report: Consumer confidence falls on weakening labor outlook

Vital Statistics:

Stocks are flat this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat as well.

Home prices hit a new record, according to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Prices rose 5.0% year-over-year in July, a deceleration from the 5.5% recorded in June. New York City led the charge, followed by Las Vegas and Los Angeles. “We continue to observe outperformance in most low-price tiers in the market on a three- and five-year horizon,” Luke continued. “The low-price tier of Tampa was the best performing market nationally with five-year performance of 88%. The New York market was the best market annually, posting a gain of 8.9%. New York’s low-tier index, which include home values up to $533,000, helped drive that growth with 10.8% annual gains. Over five years, markets such as New York and Atlanta saw low-price-tiered indices outperforming their market by as much as 20% and 18%, respectively. The relative outperformance of low-price-tiered indices has both benefited first-time homebuyers as well as made it more difficult for those looking for a starter home. The opposite is happening in California, which has the most expensive high-price tiers in the nation, all well over $1 million. The rich are getting richer in San Diego, Los Angeles, and San Francisco where their high-price-tiered indices outperformed on a one- and three-year basis.”

Consumer confidence declined in September, according to the Conference Board. “Consumer confidence dropped in September to near the bottom of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “September’s decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further. Consumers were also more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less positive about future business conditions and future income.

The Present Situation Index has moved down markedly over the summer and continues to fall. Inflationary expectations remained elevated at 5.2%.

Mortgage applications rose 11% last week as purchases rose 1.4% and refis rose 20%. “Mortgage applications increased to their highest level since July 2022, boosted by a 20 percent increase in refinance applications after a large increase the prior week. The 30-year fixed rate decreased for the eighth straight week to 6.13 percent, while the FHA rate decreased to 5.99 percent, breaking the psychologically important 6 percent level,” Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “As a result of lower rates, week-over-week gains for both conventional and government refinance applications increased sharply. The refinance share of applications is now at 55.7 percent, and while the level of refinance activity is still modest compared to prior refi waves, they now account for the majority of applications, given the seasonal slowdown in purchase activity.”

75 Responses

  1. What makes me laugh is that nobody comments on the obviousness that it’s bullshit.

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  2. Oh, the humanity.

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  3. A lot going on here. A tranny, wanna be firefighter Muslim hoping for suicide in Canada.

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    • McWing:

      “A trans-identified male…”

      Anyone else notice this sudden shift from “trans” being something a person “is” based on how they self-identify their “gender”, to it being a self-identification in and of itself? A person who “identifies” as trans is “identifying” themselves to be what, exactly? The shape-shifting nature of trans-ideology knows no bounds.

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  4. Do they realize how absurd they sound?

    Allied Countries Accuse Taliban of ‘Gross’ Violations of Women’s Rights

    Germany, Australia, Canada and the Netherlands said they will take the Taliban to the U.N.’s highest court because of its harsh restrictions on Afghan women.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/25/world/asia/taliban-afghanistan-womens-rights.html

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  5. I’m not sure that comparing Trump to Benjamin Franklin on immigration will work out the way they are hoping:

    This racist complaint — that immigrants will change the character of Pennsylvania — is older than the U.S. itself.In 1755, Ben Franklin wrote this bit, worried that the character of Pennsylvania would be ruined by the influx of immigrants from … Germany http://www.columbia.edu/~lmg21/ash30...

    Kevin M. Kruse (@kevinmkruse.bsky.social) 2024-09-24T19:07:31.526Z

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  6. If you don’t but this magazine, we’ll kill this dog.

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  7. It’s a real stumper.

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  8. This is so true!

    Before him, I never wanted to fuck a nanny and knock her up. Now? It’s all I want to do!

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  9. Totally!

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  10. Fucking Trump!

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    • Good lord that article is long. Took forever to get to what I assume was the point, that the right is inherently racist and attractive white women are also symbols of racism and whatever. If there was more I stopped reading because good god.

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      • Yarvin definitely needs an editor. Plus, to many inside jokes/references.

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        • I was referring to that interminable Newsweek article about “hot chicks on the right”—that writer needed an editor about a thousand times more than Yarvin. Yarvin is fine. I get the approach. There’s a little too much implied “oh my god even o can’t believe how cool and smart I am” in it, but he can almost get away with it. And I’m not poo-pooing his style, it’s good, just a choice where (IMO) you have to really be great to pull it off.

          Which is irrelevant, it was that Newsweek article that was pure, endless dreck. Oh my god I hope Newsweek isn’t actually paying anybody to write that garbage. Not just how worthless it is as a topic, but it’s just so terribly written. And it shouldn’t be. As reportage, it should be easy to know you don’t need those extra ten paragraphs. That your thesis point that hot chicks that are avatars on the right also represent a kind of overt white supremacy should be a lead, stupid as it is, not buried way deep in. Ugh. Newsweek is trash.

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  11. Is Mark Cuban trying to say that Kamala Harris will deliver if one of her billionaire supporters needs something?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13905997/Mark-Cuban-Elon-Musk-personal-warning-Donald-Trump.html

    If so, I’m not sure that’s the kind of message Kamala Harris wants to deliver. Would love Bernie Sander’s take on Kamala Harris’s loyalty to her billionaire supporters.

    And how should the electorate feel about Trump not being loyal to his billionaire supporters? Is that really a negative?

    Do these people hear themselves?

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  12. Freddie deBoer’s analysis here is spot on, but it’s unfortunate he won’t apply it to the growth of transgender identification.

    https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/of-course-people-make-up-disabilities

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  13. I was on board until it got to giving Lyndsey Graham a break, fuck that insufferable bastard, Rumors be damned!

    But then came Nuke Quebec and I got back on board.

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  14. Lol!

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    • Good lord they are all absolutely worthless. It’s our first real Twitter-exclusive administration.

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    • I wonder to what extent the dockworkers strike will impact relief efforts for Hurricane Helene. The Jones Act was a major impediment to Puerto Rico’s recovery efforts and had to be temporarily suspended.

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      • There are a lot of helicopters at Fort Bragg (or whatever the fuck they’re calling it now) that can drop in supplies. I don’t think that the longshoreman strike would have any impact as what residents need are water, food, gas and perhaps generators, all of which we have on hand domestically.

        What we need is the political will. Is there enough incentive for whoever is in charge to do this despite it not being areas that vote for the incumbent party? There is plenty of civilian action now, in terms of getting supplies there and there are even private helicopters doing drops. Infrastructure repair though can really only be handled by government entities authorizing and funding repair. The military can provide temporary assistance in terms of bridges, debris removal and road plowing – but that’s temporary.

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        • “Is there enough incentive for whoever is in charge to do this despite it not being areas that vote for the incumbent party?”

          I don’t think there are sufficient numbers of people in the current administration capable of thinking like you describe; every part of the thought process would be foreign, including having any deeper understanding of how such things work than what can be immediately gleaned from TikTok or Twitter. I get a strong sense that Kamala is incapable of initiative when it comes to specific action. And I feel like she is paralyzed for fear of doing the wrong thing (in terms of hurting her election chances) regarding any new situation that arises, so will still be workshopping statements by the time charities and individuals have resolved much of the situation and the news cycle has moved on.

          But the political class generally and the left/Democrats in specifically cannot think in terms of tactically solving real world problems with practical action. The more straight-forward and practical the action necessary to solve a problem, the less capable the seem to be of not only taking such action but even conceptualizing it.

          Except when it comes to vote harvesting. 😀

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        • Trump gave Newsome all he asked for during and after the wildfires. Ditto Andrew Cuomo and New York. You can argue about what his motivations are, he delivered what was asked.

          Trump is the embodiment of Milton Freidman’sm greatest contribution to politics: “I do not believe that the solution to our problem is simply to elect the right people, the important thing is to establish a political climate of opinion which will make it politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing. Unless it is politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing, the right people will not do the right thing either, or if they try, they will shortly be out of office.”

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        • I don’t really put Trump in the political class per se, and certainly many of the competent movers in his administration were not of the typical DC political class. And I feel like we can cite Clinton and Obama and Bush in many cases, to varying degrees, in the past. I’m thinking present and future we’re going to see much less of that.

          And even then I hope the Trump admin was twisting Newsome’s arm to take help he might not have wanted because he’s an elite prick. I don’t know, but I wouldn’t trust Newsome to know better than a random intern in the Trump admin how to respond to disasters in California.

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  15. What did her Jewish husband eat?

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  16. This made me laugh.

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  17. Jurassic Ranch:

    “Rancher sentenced to 6 months in prison for illegally cloning giant sheep

    Arthur “Jack” Schubarth, 81, previously pleaded guilty to creating giant hybrid sheep via illegally imported genetic material.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/10/01/clone-hybrid-sheep-montana-sentence/

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