Morning Report: Home Prices continue their march upward

Vital Statistics:

Stocks are higher this morning as earnings continue to come in. Bonds and MBS are down small.

The US Treasury expects to borrow $740 billion in the third quarter, which is down about $106 billion from the April estimate. It expects to borrow $565 billion in Q4.

Home insurance premiums rose 21% last year. “The levels of risk and the kinds of hazards that a property can be exposed to are massively changing,” said Carlos Martín, director of the Remodeling Futures program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University.

“And right now there’s a lot of confusion, not just among the homeowners, but also among the insurers about how they should be pricing this actuarially,” he said.

Home price appreciation was flat in May, according to the FHFA House Price Index. Over the past year, home prices rose 5.7%. “U.S. house price movement was flat in May,” said Dr. Anju Vajja, Deputy Director for FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “The slowdown in U.S. house price appreciation continued in May amid a slight rise in both mortgage rates and housing inventory.”

The hot markets of the pandemic era are fading, while the post-2008 laggards are showing the most growth.

The Case-Shiller index showed a 5.9% annual gain in May. “While annual gains have decelerated recently, this may have more to do with 2023 than 2024, as recent performance remains encouraging,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets. “Our home price index has appreciated 4.1% year-to-date, the fastest start in two years. Covering the six-month period dating to when mortgage rates peaked, our national index has risen the past four months, erasing the stall experienced late last year. Collectively, all 20 markets covered continue to trade in a homogeneous pattern. Coming into the 2024 presidential election, traditional red states are in a dead heat with blue states, both averaging 5.9% gains annually.

“The Big Apple returned to the top of the leader boards, toppling San Diego from its six-month perch. New York’s 9.4% annual return outpaced San Diego and Las Vegas, by 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively. All 20 markets observed annual gains for the last six months. The last time we saw that long a streak was when all markets rose for three years consecutively during the COVID housing boom. This rally pales in comparison in both duration and annual gains, with above trend growth of 6.2%. The waiting game for the possibility of favorable changes in lending rates continues to be costly for potential buyers\ as home prices march forward.”

27 Responses

  1. Worth noting:

    Texas’s largest grid operator announced last year that it had more than 18,000 megawatts of solar-power capacity installed on its grid; California’s largest grid operator had just over 17,000.

    As Jenkins explains in this episode, Texas “is the energy capital of America. And it has an all-of-the-above, all-sources-of-energy-are-good mentality to it that has left the state—both at a cultural level and also at an institutional level—with a mentality and a footing that is designed to build stuff and to extract energy and to make money, which isn’t exactly the primary footing that California is on.”

    https://www.theatlantic.com/podcasts/archive/2024/07/texas-solar-wind-renewable-energy-climate-change/679281/

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  2. An interesting article.

    https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/barack-obama-ended-normalcy-american-politics

    Obama got her the vice presidential nod even when she was forced to drop out of the primary race after hitting just 3 percent in the polls. Jill Biden objected—Harris had called her husband a racist! The First Lady’s reported recent tantrums show that even after four years, she never fully grasped the arrangement the party had made with her husband. Biden was just an imperfect placeholder for Obama, and it was only a matter of time before the superior avatar would be slotted in

    The question is when, exactly, did it become clear to Obama that it was time for Harris to finally replace Biden? Was it after Biden’s disastrous debate with Donald Trump? After the attempted assassination of Trump? No, it seems the countdown officially began Oct. 7. The Palestinians’ murderous assault on communities in southern Israel exposed Biden’s limited ability to represent the interests of the party he was tapped to temporarily preside over. It didn’t require an especially refined moral sensibility to be appalled and terrified by the carnivalesque depravity of Oct. 7—but to give Biden credit, he evidently was. And that was the signal his time was up.

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    • It proves that a democrat president is just a widget – a party hack. The difference between Biden and Kamala is the difference between Kruschev and Brezhnev.

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      • Brent:

        It proves that a democrat president is just a widget – a party hack.

        Agreed…which is why I could not care less who the D’s put forward as their nominee. It is the ideas that are objectionable, and every single conceivable nominee will be working to implement the same horrid ideas.

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        • It isn’t Trump versus Kamala. It is us versus the Borg.

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        • I would care if they ever got a party-breaking nominee like Tulsi Gabbard or Robet Kennedy, as objectionable as I might find their ideas, because it would suggest a positive disruption of the despotic and totalitarian elements that seem to run the Democrats specifically and the American left generally. I would be happy to get a crazy socialist who actually spoke out against Muslim terrorist and spoke up for free speech. But I am not holding my breath.

          No shortage of folks on the right wringing their hands about nationalists and MAGA types but there is a paucity of folks on the left who worry about anti-Semites, government suppression of speech, the corruption of science, the weaponization of the DOJ against political opponents, etc.

          I’m all for policing your own side but the right isn’t the side that needs policing right now.

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    • If true, then Kamala is going to have a tapdance until the election. She’s not going to want to go full anti-Semite until after the election. And sometimes she’s not going to sound any less opposed to killing Jews than Biden did. Then how’s that going to play with the Democratic base?

      This is Kevin, BTW. My regular WordPress account has been locked for security reasons for like 6 months or something. I’ve given up trying to fix it because apparently it’s hooked up to an email address I no longer have. So I’m using this one.

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      • Glad to hear from you Kevin!

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      • Hey, KW….long time. Hope you are well.

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        • A charismatic sociopath has taken over the school district, who has a mission of being a better steward of public money (good) and doing zero planning before making gigantic sweeping changes right before start of school (bad). The intent is a positive, I think, but the zero due diligence exhibits a Kamala level of competence. We either get competent people who won’t rock the boat enough to make us better stewards of tax payer money … or we get someone who will rock the boat but does so like a crazy person surrounded by lickspittles who do nothing to reign in their worst instincts. Ah well. It’s gonna be a rocky start of school!

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  3. My God!

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  4. One wonders what is really going on here:

    A Mysterious Plot Prompts a Rare Call From Russia to the Pentagon

    Russia’s defense minister said he needed to talk to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin about an alleged Ukrainian operation. What happened next remains murky.

    By Eric Schmitt

    Reporting from Washington
    July 26, 2024

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/26/us/politics/austin-russia-ukraine-defense-plot.html

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  5. And her support of ending the filibuster and Supreme Court “reform” prove it! You go Bill!

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    • “Democracy” means nothing more than “democrats getting their way”

      They owned SCOTUS for damn near the entire 20th century, and haven’t controlled it for 4 years and now they want to discredit the institution.

      Bill Kristol is a dingleberry

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    • I assume Kristol knows he sounds exactly like a paid shill, whether he is one or not. I’m assuming he must be but it really makes no difference I guess.

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      • Bill Kristol, Max Boot and Jen Rubin are the same thing. Leftists who are heavily pro-Israel, but don’t have any non-leftist values.

        I suspect Jonah Goldberg is one too.

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        • Jonah Goldberg has a lot of non-leftist values, I don’t think he has any non-elitist values. And I think he extends far too much credit to the left while holding the right to much more rigorous standards.

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  6. Let’s see if the NY AG goes after GLAAD the same way she did the NRA.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/business/glaad-ceo-spending.html

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    • The legal system is a weapon democrats use against their ideological opponents.

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      • More importantly it no longer has any other purpose. The legal system does not exist to protect people or property or lives, it does not exist to enable businesses to thrive or enforce contracts, or create a predictable environment for people to live and work in. It exists to persecute their enemies. Full stop.

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    • Oh I’m sure she will be rigorously intellectually consistent.

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  7. The lying is so blatant now:

    “There are no transgender women athletes participating at this year’s Games.”

    https://www.vox.com/culture/364032/trans-athletes-olympics-2024

    PARIS, Aug 1 (Reuters) – Italian boxer Angela Carini pulled out of the Paris Olympics on Thursday after she sustained a series of crunching blows from her Algerian opponent Imane Khelif, who last year failed a gender eligibility test at the World Championships.

    https://www.reuters.com/sports/olympics/boxing-algerian-khelif-advances-after-italys-carini-abandons-fight-after-46-2024-08-01/

    https://www.theradicalist.com/p/raging-bullshit

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    • Nothing is more sacred to the left than this issue, except for maybe abortion

      That said, women have aggressively invaded every single male space over the past 50 years, so I don’t have a lot of sympathy for them on this issue.

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      • I guess. I just find it dissatisfying. I’d rather see their spaces protected and men’s spaces protected. It is bizarre we’ve gone to saying identity is the only thing that matters BUT certain identities are not allowed to have their own organizational spaces.

        Oh well.

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    • Trans non-binary? These people are talking literal nonsense. Is that different than being cis non-binary? The words these people use have no meaning whatsoever. They are empty of content.

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