Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Stocks are higher as investors like Tesla’s numbers. Bonds and MBS are down.
New Home Sales rose 8.8% MOM in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000. This is up 8.3% on a year-over-year basis. The median new home price fell 2% on a YOY basis to $430,700. There is an 8.3 month supply of homes for sale.
Pulte reported earnings per share that rose 32% compared to a year ago. Revenues rose 10% to $3.8 billion. Gross margins expanded 50 basis points YOY to 30%. CEO Ryan Marshall said this on the earnings conference call:
Against generally favorable demand conditions, the supply of available housing remains tight. We have a long-term structural issue resulting from a decade of under-building that has the country short approximately 4 million housing units. At the same time, the available inventory of existing homes for sale continues to be low as homeowners remain locked into their low mortgage rates. Life happens, so we are seeing some additional existing homes come to market, but the numbers remain well below historic rates.
As a homebuilder, this is a great operating environment as we are supplying a product that a lot of people need and want. I appreciate, however, that our country’s housing shortage can create hardships for today’s consumers as the lack of supply keeps housing prices high. In fact, some of our recent buyers said that they made the decision to buy now because they couldn’t wait any longer for rates to roll back.
In a market where home prices are high and because of limited inventory, they will likely continue moving higher. Our company’s ability to offer targeted incentives, particularly mortgage rate buy-downs, is a powerful tool that can help bridge the affordability gap. For example, in the first quarter, approximately 25% of our home buyers used our national rate program. In a world where the consensus is that interest rates will be higher for longer, our interest rate incentives likely become an even greater competitive advantage, especially relative to the existing home seller.
The environment for homebuilders couldn’t be better. The chart below looks at new home sales divided by the number of households in the US: Look how much we have underbuilt since the bubble years:
Like D.R. Horton, Pulte spent capital buying back stock instead of plowing every cent back into the business. I understand housing is cyclical, but when your ROE is 27%, buying back stock doesn’t make sense.
Mortgage applications fell 2.7% last week as purchases rose 0.2% and refis fell 6%. “Mortgage rates continued to move higher last week, reaching their highest levels since late 2023 and putting a damper on applications activity. The 30-year fixed rate increased for the third consecutive week to 7.24 percent, the highest since November 2023,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications declined, as home buyers delayed their purchase decisions due to strained affordability and low supply. The ARM share of applications increased to 7.6 percent, consistent with the upward trend in rates, as buyers look to reduce their potential monthly payments.”
Jamie Dimon is worried that stagflation might be returning to the US. “Yes, I think there’s a chance that can happen again,” he said during an appearance Tuesday at the Economic Club of New York. He is referring to stickier-than-normal inflation along with mediocre growth. Of course the difference the economy in the 1970s bears little resemblance to the economy of today, but it is a risk.
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
Republican’s should bring these up and vote “present” and let the Democrats choke on it.
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They lie. We know they lie. They know we know they lie. We know they know we know they lie.
https://x.com/rncresearch/status/1782911428023795880?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
Yet the keep lying.
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Worth noting:
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Guess the open borders gambit isn’t paying dividends
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Good read:
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Another good piece:
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Four More Years. Pause.
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He’s gone.
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What amuses me about this diary is the lack of understanding about what “Absolute Immunity” means in the legal context. Everybody understood, at least until Trump, that the POTUS was immune from criminal prosecution for official acts.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/4/25/2237274/-Has-the-Supreme-Court-already-gone-rogue#comment_88511033
The other thing that is amusing is the lack of awareness of the dangers of the concentration of power. What I mean is that what bothers the leftists is those that hold the power, not that the individual or entity has too much power. They never are willing to make the connection.
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Absent that immunity, Obama could be prosecuted for murder vis-a-vis Anwar al-Awlaki and his son Abdulrahman al-Awlaki for ordering drone strikes on US citizens.
The court has not seriously grappled with the implications of a US president being able to unilaterally designate anyone as a terrorist and put them on a secret kill list.
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The comments seem to dwell on Trump sleeping through his trial. If the verdict is a foregone conclusion, why stay awake? Seriously.
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Why attend at all?
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My understanding is that he has to by Judge’s order. That being said, if I were him, I’d at least file a motion asking to be excused. I suspect he wants to be there because it’s media exposure and feeds the martyr image he’s projecting. Doesn’t make it any less boring however.
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I did think the bodega visit was inspired.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/17/trump-trial-new-york-bodega-00152892
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Biden’s WaWa visit was an exquisite contrast, though I doubt many saw it.
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This made me laugh.
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They’ll overreach again and make this about how rural voters are sadistic hicks (cue banjo from Deliverance) and it will end up benefiting her.
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There’s another country besides the United States that’s worried about the impact of TikTok on the morals of the youth:
At least the Iraqis are honest about why they are going after TikTok, rather than have some BS story about Chinese influence.
None of this has changed from the days of Socrates when he was forced to commit suicide after being found guilty of corrupting the youth.
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It must suck to be in the FBI.
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legit hilarious.
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It takes a heart of stone not to laugh.
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Lol! “Like settlers waving machine guns…”
Oh, the humanity!
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This is an older piece but it brings into relief the reason Trump’s alternate electors are being prosecuted:
Because, Shut Up.
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No.
Please don’t.
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To these bubbled lefties, inflation is gas prices, if gas prices are going down, that means inflation is all gone. They make so much money that they’re able to ignore that all other things, food, electricity, rent, are up by at least 30% and are not coming down.
“The question I have though is inflation is cooling. I mean, if you look at gas prices, they’re going down,” he said at the time. “They’re around three bucks a gallon in the Washington, D.C. area, Maryland or Virginia. I suspect it fluctuates depending on where you are around the country, but generally coming down. People aren’t feeling that enough just yet.
https://redstate.com/benkew/2024/04/29/cnns-jim-acosta-triggered-by-poll-showing-majority-consider-trumps-presidency-a-success-n2173502
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The disconnect for the left is that they don’t realize that people simply don’t believe them any more. They think all they need to do is censor more and repeat the same talking points louder and more often.
That strategy works up to a point, but we are way past the point of diminishing returns.
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