Morning Report: Consumer Confidence Falls

Posted on February 28, 2024 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

Stocks are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Fourth quarter GDP was revised downward to 3.2%. Consumption was revised upward to 3%.

Mortgage applications fell 5.6% last week as purchases fell 1% and refis fell 7%. “Mortgage rates were little changed last week, with the 30-year conforming rate declining slightly to 7.04 percent but remaining about a quarter percentage point higher than the start of the year,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist.  “Higher rates in recent weeks have stalled activity, and last week it dropped more for those seeking FHA and VA refinances. Purchase activity is running 12 percent behind last year’s pace, but our January Builder Application Survey results showed that applications to buy new homes were up 19 percent compared to last year. This disparity continues to highlight how the lack of existing inventory is the primary constraint to increases in purchase volume. However, mortgage rates above 7 percent sure don’t help.”

Mortgage Capital Trading announced today announced the release of pricing indications for the to-be-announced mortgage-backed securities (TBAs) used by mortgage lenders to hedge their open mortgage pipelines. TBA indications improve transparency in illiquid market segments and act as a key reference point on lenders’ unique executions – critical data for generating accurate front-end borrower pricing. “TBA indications can now be electronically requested ad hoc by mortgage lenders from multiple approved broker-dealers,” said Phil Rasori, COO at MCT. “For the first time, lenders have a custom reference point to their own TBA execution rather than working solely from market-wide pricing that may not be applicable to them.”

Consumer confidence fell in February, according to the Conference Board. January was revised downward. “The decline in consumer confidence in February interrupted a three-month rise, reflecting persistent uncertainty about the US economy,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “The drop in confidence was broad-based, affecting all income groups except households earning less than $15,000 and those earning more than $125,000. Confidence deteriorated for consumers under the age of 35 and those 55 and over, whereas it improved slightly for those aged 35 to 54…February’s write-in responses revealed that while overall inflation remained the main preoccupation of consumers, they are now a bit less concerned about food and gas prices, which have eased in recent months. But they are more concerned about the labor market situation and the US political environment.”

More problems for real estate agents: A lawsuit filed in California targets buyer agent commissions, arguing that they should be zero. “For years buyer broker commission rates have remained stable despite a) the increase in home values, making those commissions much more valuable, and b) the diminishment to near nothing of what buyer brokers actually do to earn their commission,” the complaint says…”A truly competitive rate for buyers’ agents would in fact be 0% or $0 as, in the vast majority of cases, buyers’ agents do minimal if any work to secure a sale, with buyers doing much of their own searching via popular websites like zillow.com, and redfin.com itself,” the suit alleges.

Filed under: Economy |

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37 Responses

  1. jnc4p's avatar
    jnc4p, on February 28, 2024 at 12:24 pm said:

    Good piece:

    “As a Tactic, Self-Immolation Is Often Counterproductive

    The tendency to celebrate and encourage this behavior, or even to be moved by it, strikes me as deeply sick.

    By Graeme Wood”

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/02/self-immolation-aaron-bushnell-israel-palestine/677584/

    Like

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    • Brent Nyitray's avatar
      Brent Nyitray, on February 28, 2024 at 12:26 pm said:

      IMO, it speaks to the leadership and recruiting of the military starting with obama.

      Back when I served, military members were supposed to be non-political in public. Politics was a forbidden topic in the wardroom for meals as well.

      Like

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  2. Let the mutherfuker burn!'s avatar
    Let the mutherfuker burn!, on February 28, 2024 at 2:06 pm said:

    Even Democrats think Trump and his Presidency demonstrated more competency than Biden.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/27/senate-intel-chair-election-threats-warning-00143522

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  3. jnc4p's avatar
    jnc4p, on February 28, 2024 at 7:16 pm said:

    Interesting piece that frames the issue well:

    Have Facebook and X, formerly Twitter, now become the modern equivalent of public utilities, like your phone service or electric company? Or are they media organizations like The Post?

    …

    The debate here has been a long time coming. It remains unresolved, in part, because the tech companies themselves have always tried to have it both ways.

    When outraged leftists demand more regulation around content that spreads hatred or misinformation, the companies are quick to assert that they are essentially pipelines for public discourse, rather than content providers. In fact, Congress codified this argument with something called Section 230, a provision that shields social media companies from the same kind of legal jeopardy that a newspaper might face for printing something false.

    But when the right tries to impose some version of political neutrality, as it did in Texas, the same companies embrace exactly the opposite conceit — that they are media companies, no different from any news site, and thus can’t be forced to publish content they find offensive.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/02/28/social-media-supreme-court-public-utility/

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    • Brent Nyitray's avatar
      Brent Nyitray, on February 28, 2024 at 7:44 pm said:

      Facebook and X are not public utilities.

      Google is.

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      • jnc4p's avatar
        jnc4p, on February 28, 2024 at 8:04 pm said:

        So do you think Google and NVDIA are overvalued as you noted on Substack?

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        • Brent Nyitray's avatar
          Brent Nyitray, on February 28, 2024 at 8:21 pm said:

          I think there is a ton of hype in these names, and if AI gets shit wrong (intentionally or unintentionally) and needs to be fact-checked it’s value as a productivity-enhancing tool is seriously diminished.

          It is like the brilliant young employee who never gets tired, but submits work without double-checking and sometimes has some big brain farts.

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        • Let the mutherfuker burn!'s avatar
          Let the mutherfuker burn!, on February 28, 2024 at 9:31 pm said:

          Makes me yearn for the free wheeling days of Ask Jeeves.

          Like

        • jnc4p's avatar
          jnc4p, on February 29, 2024 at 11:33 am said:

          I would think that this would present an opportunity for Musk to have a “non-Woke” AI that just responds back with the straight info.

          Could help fix Twitter/X’s under performance. He already has a scaled platform that could add the feature.

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        • Brent Nyitray's avatar
          Brent Nyitray, on February 29, 2024 at 2:22 pm said:

          I believe he is on it.

          We are basically going to create a two-silo’d media system, where you have one controlled by the left and one where both sides are permitted.

          IMO the left is going to more directly attack the whole concept of free speech going forward. They don’t believe in it.

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  4. jnc4p's avatar
    jnc4p, on February 29, 2024 at 2:23 pm said:

    Good piece on the Georgia situation.

    https://www.serioustrouble.show/p/ga-law

    This was funny:

    Josh Barro:

    Could we talk about the phone records for a moment?

    Andrew Fleischman:

    Oh sure.

    Josh Barro:

    The location data suggesting that if Nathan Wade was not at Fani Willis’ apartment late at night, he was very close to it. I think a lot of people have been really surprised that it was even possible to obtain this data. Among the people who were surprised seems to have been the Fulton County District Attorney’s office who suggested that they must have done something illegal or improper to obtain the cell phone data. But how is it if I’m a defendant in a case, can I just go to Verizon and get the prosecutor’s cell phone location data? Am I legally entitled to that?

    Andrew Fleischman:

    You’re legally entitled to ask. You go down to the clerk’s office, you get a blank subpoena, you put the stuff in, you send it there. Now the person has an opportunity to move to quash that, and for some reason Nathan Wade didn’t. Maybe because he’s not well represented or didn’t notice. But that’s normally the process that you use to keep that stuff from happening, and it didn’t happen.

    Ken White:

    See, that’s why he shouldn’t have Bradley as his lawyer.

    Andrew Fleischman:

    It’s a mistake.

    Josh Barro:

    Wait, so would he have been able to get that subpoena quashed if he tried?

    Andrew Fleischman:

    He could have certainly made an argument that it was going into more stuff than needed or that it was bad. I don’t know. The judge probably would’ve seriously considered granting a motion to quash.

    https://www.serioustrouble.show/p/ga-law

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  5. Let the mutherfuker burn!'s avatar
    Let the mutherfuker burn!, on March 1, 2024 at 8:43 am said:

    This made me laugh.

    https://x.com/hollybriden/status/1763388044940607606?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg

    How long before we start getting the “at least Hitler loved dogs” comparisons to Trump?

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  7. Let the mutherfuker burn!'s avatar
    Let the mutherfuker burn!, on March 2, 2024 at 11:41 am said:

    Love this WSJ/DoD/Intel community/State Department framing.

    https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-ukraine-peace-deal-2022-document-6e12e093

    Ukraine is so much better off now.

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  8. jnc4p's avatar
    jnc4p, on March 3, 2024 at 9:03 am said:

    Good read:

    “Did Google, Facebook, and Amazon Endorse Jim Crow?

    At the Supreme Court this week, big tech said most economic regulation for platforms are unconstitutional. And they used same logic as Robert Bork in attacking the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

    Matt Stoller

    Mar 2, 2024″

    https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/did-google-facebook-and-amazon-endorse

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  9. jnc4p's avatar
    jnc4p, on March 3, 2024 at 8:22 pm said:

    One almost thinks that Trump wanted this result so that the framing would be Haley wins DC, Trump the rest of the country.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/03/gop-primary-dc/

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  11. jnc4p's avatar
    jnc4p, on March 4, 2024 at 2:51 pm said:

    George, everyone is jumping on your bandwagon now:

    “When Science Journals Become Activists

    Spinning climate data to fit a policy agenda undermines public faith in science.

    Patrick T Brown
    Mar 4, 2024″

    https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/when-science-journals-become-activists?utm_source=%2Finbox&utm_medium=reader2

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  12. Let the mutherfuker burn!'s avatar
    Let the mutherfuker burn!, on March 4, 2024 at 8:07 pm said:

    What are the odds at least one pro Hamas weirdo interrupts Biden’s SOTU?

    Like

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  14. jnc4p's avatar
    jnc4p, on March 5, 2024 at 9:56 am said:

    Mark – FYI on the BOI requirements in the Corporate Transparency Act.

    “Federal court holds Corporate Transparency Act unconstitutional”

    https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/news/2024/mar/federal-court-holds-corporate-transparency-act-unconstitutional.html

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  15. jnc4p's avatar
    jnc4p, on March 5, 2024 at 10:12 am said:

    There won’t be any unintended consequences from this:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/03/05/credit-card-fees-cap-8-month/

    I don’t think it will pay the political dividends the Democrats expect either because it reinforces their image of always siding with the irresponsible (people who don’t pay on time) over the responsible, just like with student loan non-repayment.

    The formation of a “strike team” is amusing. Perhaps they can get a jet like in Captain America: Winter Soldier

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  16. jnc4p's avatar
    jnc4p, on March 5, 2024 at 12:50 pm said:

    Google Gemini as the culmination of it’s recent trends.

    https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/googles-brave-new-woke-af-world-562

    One would think this would present an enormous opportunity for Elon Musk to build an unbiased search engine and AI.

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    • Brent Nyitray's avatar
      Brent Nyitray, on March 5, 2024 at 3:32 pm said:

      It was a stroke of luck that they were so mockable on the DEI shit. Now Google will be treated as suspect by most people.

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  17. jnc4p's avatar
    jnc4p, on March 5, 2024 at 1:41 pm said:

    Interesting:

    “Dartmouth men’s basketball team votes to unionize in a case that could alter college sports

    The players’ vote in favor of unionization allows them to collectively bargain with the university over pay, practice hours and other working conditions. But there’s still a long road ahead.

    By Jesse Dougherty”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/03/05/dartmouth-mens-basketball-union/

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  18. ScottC's avatar
    ScottC, on March 5, 2024 at 3:16 pm said:

    Some guy at the Daily Wire just plagiarized my substack article from yesterday!

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/when-it-comes-to-breaking-records-context-matters

    Undoubtedly just a coincidence, but it is amazingly similar.

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