Morning Report: Big week for housing data

Posted on October 16, 2023 by Brent Nyitray

ital Statistics:

Stocks are higher this morning as investors focus on the Middle East. Bonds and MBS are down as investors fret about the hot CPI report last week. Many in the mortgage business will be at the MBA Annual in Philly.

The upcoming week will have a lot of housing data with housing starts, the NAHB Housing Market Index and existing home sales. We will also get industrial production and leading economic indicators. There will be plenty of Fed speakers with Jerome Powell speaking on Thursday.

The Biden Administration is talking about housing. Steps being taken include allowing FHA borrowers to count rental income from accessory units, new support for VA borrowers who become delinquent, expanded USDA loan access and updating 203k loans. The Administration might also want to address the alarming number of buybacks coming from Fannie and Freddie.

In my latest Substack post, I ask if we had a bubble in sovereign debt and compare the carnage in the bond market to the aftermath of the stock and real estate bubbles. Mohammed El-Arian said that this bond market is the worst in 150 years. Indeed, if you bought the 30 year Treasury in April of 2020, you would have lost 50% of your money at this point. Check it out and please consider subscribing.

Housing affordability is at an all-time low in the US. This is driving home sales to their lowest level since the real estate bust of 2008. Redfin forecasts existing home sales to come in at 4.1 million this year, the lowest level since 2008.

Given the rate-lock in effect, the only thing that can square the circle is increased building.

Filed under: Economy |

19 Responses

jnc4p, on October 16, 2023 at 3:19 pm said:

Good summation of the moment:

“The Great Hamas Unmasking
How a Jewish massacre exposed progressive racism

David Josef Volodzko
Oct 16, 2023”

https://volodzko.substack.com/p/the-great-hamas-unmasking

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- Brent Nyitray, on October 16, 2023 at 3:39 pm said:
  
  I still say it isn’t racism but relative victimhood status.
  
  But the Israeli situation shows the intellectual bankruptcy of a lot of the CRT / Progressive worldview, which is a start, i guess.
  
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  - jnc4p, on October 16, 2023 at 3:53 pm said:
    
    Seems to be a genuine awakening in the liberal but not fully intersectional left side.
    
    “Writers like Michelle Goldberg, Julia Ioffe, and my colleague Eric Levitz, all of whom rank among the writers I most admire, have written anguished columns about the alienation of Jewish progressives from the far left. I think all their points are totally correct. But I find the frame of their response too narrow. They are treating apologias for Hamas as a factually or logically flawed application of left-wing ideals. I believe, to the contrary, that Hamas defenders are applying their own principles correctly. The problem is the principles themselves.”
    
    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/10/hamas-jews-illiberal-left-progressive-israel-terrorism.html
    
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- Brent Nyitray, on October 16, 2023 at 10:13 pm said:
  
  Jon Hunstsman has cut off funds to Penn and Les Wexner has cut off funds to Harvard.
  
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Let the mutherfuker burn!, on October 16, 2023 at 3:48 pm said:

Today, 10:56 pm 0
US President Joe Biden’s administration has privately been pressing Israel in recent days to flesh out its strategy for the day after it completes its stated goal of toppling Hamas’s Gaza rule

Curious if the Ukraine war mongers feel that same sense of urgency about strategy?

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/us-pressing-israel-to-devise-strategy-for-scenario-of-hamass-rule-being-toppled/

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- Brent Nyitray, on October 16, 2023 at 3:49 pm said:
  
  I got a kick out of Janet Yellen’s assertion that we can definitely afford two wars.
  
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  - Let the mutherfuker burn!, on October 16, 2023 at 4:52 pm said:
    
    It’s only money.
    
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- jnc4p, on October 16, 2023 at 5:51 pm said:
  
  Interesting framing of the headline vs the content of the article:
  
  “Jewish activists arrested during protest at White House over Israel-Gaza war
  
  By Ellie Silverman
  October 16, 2023 at 6:39 p.m. EDT”
  
  https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/10/16/jewish-israel-gaza-white-house-protest-arrests/
  
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Let the mutherfuker burn!, on October 16, 2023 at 4:35 pm said:

Knock me over with a feather.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/10/23/the-great-cash-for-carbon-hustle

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jnc4p, on October 17, 2023 at 1:24 pm said:

And they admit it finally:

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- Brent Nyitray, on October 17, 2023 at 1:28 pm said:
  
  It will be interesting if the left only changes narrowly re Israel and continues its current policies against WrongThink
  
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  - Let the mutherfuker burn!, on October 17, 2023 at 2:53 pm said:
    
    I don’t think so. Those that are dismayed to discover that lefties are inveterate anti-Semites will still vote for lefties because they ideologically align otherwise. They are more afraid of Republicans than of the anti-Semites in their own party.
    
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    - ScottC, on October 17, 2023 at 5:33 pm said:
      
      McWing:
      
      Those that are dismayed to discover that lefties are inveterate anti-Semites will still vote for lefties because they ideologically align otherwise. They are more afraid of Republicans than of the anti-Semites in their own party.
      
      I think that is right. I have had any number of conversations with Democratic voters in which they disavow all kinds of major policy stances undertaken by the Democratic Party, but they still support and vote for Democrats. I don’t see why anti-semitism will be any different.
      
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    - Let the mutherfuker burn!, on October 17, 2023 at 6:45 pm said:
      
      Where are they going to go when Trump or any other Republican is AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT? DO YOU WANT GRANDMA TO DIE BY RUSSIA’S HAND BECAUSE UKRAINE’S FUNDING WAS A WEEK LATE?!?!?
      
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  - jnc4p, on October 17, 2023 at 2:53 pm said:
    
    I think this might break the whole “intersectional” consensus on the left.
    
    Or at least cleave a large chunk of previous fellow travelers from it.
    
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    - Brent Nyitray, on October 17, 2023 at 4:43 pm said:
      
      i am not optimistic. Leftism is a religion and these people are incapable of self-reflection.
      
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jnc4p, on October 17, 2023 at 2:52 pm said:

Biden’s original speech from October 10 is actually quite good. I think he sees the issue clearly.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/10/10/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-terrorist-attacks-in-israel-2/

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- ScottC, on October 17, 2023 at 5:27 pm said:
  
  jnc:
  
  I think he sees the issue clearly.
  
  I don’t think Biden sees any issue clearly. He says what his handlers tell him to say.
  
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  - jnc4p, on October 18, 2023 at 10:25 am said:
    
    Maybe. But in this case, he’s breaking with the more radical base of his party unlike previous cases.
    
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