Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Stocks are lower this morning as investors fret about China. Bonds and MBS are flat.
Housing starts rose 4% MOM to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.45 million units. This is up 6% on a YOY basis. Single family starts were up about 9.5% on a YOY basis while multi-fam was flat. Building Permits were flat MOM and down 13% on a YOY basis.
The homebuilders have been on a tear this year, outperforming the S&P 500 by 23% year-to-date. Below is a chart of the homebuilder ETF (XHB) versus the S&P:
New Home purchase applications rose 35.5% compared to a year ago, according to the MBA. “Applications for purchase loans on newly constructed homes remained strong in July, up 36 percent annually, as new homes continued to account for a growing share of homes available for sale,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The FHA share of purchase applications was 24.2 percent, the highest share since May 2020, and has increased in four of the last five months. FHA purchase loans are a popular option for many first-time homebuyers and this increasing trend in the FHA share is indicative of more first-time buyers looking to new homes as an option, given the lack of for-sale inventory among existing homes and challenging affordability conditions.”
The spurt in new home purchases is being driven by the lock-in effect where people who might be inclined to sell stay put because they hate the idea of trading their 3.5% mortgage rate for a 7% rate.
Mortgage applications fell 0.8% last week as purchases fell 0.2% and refis fell 1%. “Treasury rates were elevated again last week following mixed data on inflation and more indication of resiliency in the economy, which may pose a challenge to the Federal Reserve’s efforts to lower inflation. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased for the third straight week, reaching 7.16 percent, matching October 2022’s rate and the highest rate since 2001,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Overall applications decreased because of these higher rates, as both purchase and refinance applications ended the week at their lowest levels since February 2023. Government purchase applications provided a bright spot, increasing 2.4 percent over the week, driven by increases in both FHA and VA purchase categories. The ARM share of applications rose slightly to 7 percent, the highest since April 2023, as borrowers look for relief from higher fixed rates.”
More news that indicates how bad things are getting in China. The government is asking mutual funds to avoid selling stock in order to support the market. This is similar to Japan’s “price keeping operations” that it followed in the 1990s to support the stock market. The government has already said it will stop reporting the youth unemployment rate because the number is so bad. Here is an eye-opening video about the reality of being young in China.
Industrial production rose 1% MOM, while manufacturing production rose 0.5%. Both numbers were above Street expectations. Capacity Utilization inched up to 79.3%.
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
Atlanta Fed Q3 GDP Now estimate is 5.8%.
Anyone buying that? Especially after the Russian Collusion Hoax?
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What horseshit!
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Finger on the fucking pulse.
https://x.com/nikkihaley/status/1691789543446298754?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
Political instincts of a cat.
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Yeah, not seeing the grass-roots support for getting involved.
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She’s gotta pay homage to the blob, as do all the other candidates. Hell, even DeSantis backtracked off his “territorial dispute” comment.
It’s how far gone we are.
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i live in westchester, there are about as many ukraine flags as pride flags. This shit would disappear the nanosecond you announced a draft with no deferrments.
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The pulse of Raytheon and Northrup-Grumman maybe.
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The government pays Raytheon and Northrup-Grumman whatever it wants to begin with. They can keep Raytheon and Northrup Grumman in business by purchasing $2000 toilets. They don’t need a war to keep them afloat.
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They can keep Raytheon and Northrup Grumman in business by purchasing $2000 toilets.”
That’s no fun, though.
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Zelensky knows what his benefactors want to see.
https://rmx.news/poland/american-transsexual-becomes-a-spokesperson-for-ukrainian-forces/
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If Biden doesn’t give him all the money now, it will be clear Biden is a transphobe.
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Now it can be told.
https://www.space.com/tonga-eruption-water-vapor-warm-earth
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Bet they are setting the stage to claim that evaporating water is a greenhouse gas, which will require anyone with a birdbath to submit to EPA oversight
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In parts of California it’s illegal for homeowners to capture rainwater.
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that’s the game i guess
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WaPo got the memo:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2023/water-scarcity-map-solutions/?itid=hp-top-table-main_p001_f005
It’s all about justifications for rationing so that the right people are prioritized.
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It may seem like the most natural thing to do, even a great use of rain water: collecting it. But did you know it could be illegal to do it in your state?
While collecting rainwater is not federally illegal, many states have restrictions in place, and water laws are primarily handled on the state level. Alternatively, some states even offer incentives for those who collect rainwater.
Where are there rainwater collection restrictions?
States that have some level of rainwater collection restrictions include:
Kansas and North Dakota may require a permit to harvest rainwater. In all states not listed above, it is legal to collect rainwater.
The World Water Reserve published a full state-by-state guide to explain which states are and aren’t allowed to harvest rainwater. The U.S. Department of Energy also has an interactive Rainwater Harvesting Regulations map to help residents figure out if it’s OK to fill up a barrel or a bucket.
Why do some states restrict water collection?
Since water availability varies greatly throughout the U.S., each state needs to adjust its water use practices based on its climate. According to WWR, most states follow the reasonable use doctrine to determine restricts; the doctrine states that “anyone who has a right to the water can reasonably use it for their own benefit as long as it doesn’t restrict the rights of others to use it as well.”
The main reason some states restrict collection is that too much rainwater harvesting can disrupt the cycle of rainfall seeping back into the earth. It is recommended to check your state’s laws regarding water use for further details.
In 2012, California passed the Rainwater Capture Act, which made it legal to collect rainwater as long as you comply with State Water Resources Board requirements.
Collecting rain from your rooftop is fine and even encouraged.
Doing so reduces “demand on streams and reduce(s) water quality problems associated with stormwater runoff,” the Water Board states.
Other methods, like pumping groundwater may require notification or a permit.
Why collect rainwater?
As explained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there are many practical uses for rainwater, including watering plants that aren’t intended to be food.
While rainwater can potentially be used for bathing and even drinking, the CDC warns that you should never assume rainwater is safe to consume since it can naturally contain germs and other contaminants.
In general, it’s recommended you don’t use or consume it if you have another option.
Nevertheless, the CDC explains there are options to help make rainwater safer, including filtration systems, chemical disinfection and boiling.
Mosquitoes
Another risk to be aware of when collecting or storing any rainwater is that the container could become a mosquito breeding site. As explained by North Carolina State University, adult female mosquitoes can lay eggs in even small amounts of standing water. Eggs only need about 24-48 hours to hatch.
Steps to prevent this include placing a screen over the water inlet and emptying containers at least every 10 days, the CDC says. NC State University also recommends that those who use rainwater harvesting systems (RWH) systems make sure entry points are tightly fitted and/or sealed and even have extra design implements that prevent overflow.
https://ktla.com/weather/is-it-legal-to-collect-rainwater-in-your-state/
These issues are never as easy as you think!
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In 2012, California passed the Rainwater Capture Act, which made it legal to collect rainwater as long as you comply with State Water Resources Board requirements.
Governments don’t pass laws to make things legal. They pass laws to make things illegal.
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“As explained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there are many practical uses for rainwater, including watering plants that aren’t intended to be food”
Am I thinking the government is telling me it’s bad in my food is watered by THE RAIN?
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Absolutely zero thought went into the governments decision to ban the collection of rainwater.
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You know what also produces water vapor? People showering. STOP SHOWERING NOW!
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Dude’s gotta point.
https://x.com/penguinponders/status/1691936160371593535?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
Ovulate, egg producer!
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well i guess it is easier on the ears than bonus-hole holders.
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One step away from Mad Max: Fury Road’s “prized breeders”.
https://www.moviequotesandmore.com/mad-max-fury-road-quotes/
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Mad Max Fury Road was robbed of Best picture.
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If anyone still thinks than “transwomen” are anything other than the newest form of radical misogynist, they are not paying attention.
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I think transwomen trumps feminists in the oppression olympics
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Muzzie transwomen trump all.
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Popehat on the Georgia indictment:
https://popehat.substack.com/p/overt-acts-and-predicate-acts-explained
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Ben Domenech interviews Matt Taibbi.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-ben-domenech-podcast/id1556479134?i=1000624459269
Great line from Taibbi, on the decline of the The Atlantic: “I would rather have my teeth pulled out one by one than to voluntarily read that publication from end to end.”
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It’s not obvious to me why there should be Egg Producer events and Dude events for chess.
https://apnews.com/article/chess-transgender-women-barred-653617ca69e8e6a7d5e0a1cfca31525c
Is there some intellectual differences between genders that I’m unaware of?
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It’s always the ones you least suspect.
https://nypost.com/2023/08/16/heavily-tatted-man-50-accused-charged-with-girlfriends-murder/
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Brent – I didn’t see this one coming: Legacy Admissions eliminated – Women and Minorities Hardest Hit.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/08/legacy-admissions-ivy-league-affirmative-action/675036/
As an aside, note the lack of mention of the word “Asian” in the article. “Students of color” apparently only refers to black and Hispanic students.
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A love the assertion that it’s actually about race, when it’s about class, and elites of any color don’t want their privileges sacrificed for the benefit of the peasants.
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My wife was talking about that.
her fairly diverse group of college friends is about to have kids who would benefit from legacy admissions.
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But no mean tweets.
https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1692516946968006737?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
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Mean, excuse me, “hard” tweets are in now.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/08/17/ron-filipkowski-desantis-trump-00110950
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The media exists in a bubble. 20% of the population has a Twitter account and like 2% of them are responsible for 80% of the Tweets if I recall.
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The left fantasizes that their astroturf is living
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The man does know how to command attention:
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The problem is that Tucker doesn’t really command the same attention he used to…………IMO I can probably sum up Trump’s answers to Tucker’s questions in 5 words…………….”The 2020 Election Was Stolen”. I’m more interested in seeing DeSantis faceplant and Christie being the tough guy! I’ll watch the debate for as long as I can stand it…………….LOL
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BTW, we have the first potential landing of a tropical storm, downgraded from a hurricane, landing here in So Cal since 1939. We’ll see if it materializes or not but it is curious! We are right in the path according to the latest models.
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Hopefully it’s not damaging and just brings extra rain to help with the drought.
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Looks like things have improved somewhat:
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Winter snowpack made a huge difference. If I’m not mistaken, there was still skiing in August.
https://www.wsls.com/weather/2023/08/09/one-california-ski-resort-finally-shut-down-operations-after-historic-snowin-august/
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Yep, we’re looking much better here in CA regarding the drought! Hilary was just a nice heavy rain for us here. Luckily the wind didn’t really show it’s face. Parts of the desert and mountain areas had flooding but they’re used to that during Baja storms that make their way up here to the desert.
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I was actually referring to Trump. Trump has managed to make the debate all about him by not participating.
This is a perfect example of the misreading of it:
“That’s a whole different level of petulant and needy, and it speaks to his staggering disregard for voters and their right to accurately assess the field.”
This isn’t about a disregard for the voters. It’s about a disregard for the media (Fox News included) and a disregard for the RNC and the rest of the Republican establishment.
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I agree that he’s totally dissing the Republican Party here and Fox News. I don’t really understand why though. I assume he’s just pandering to his Cult.
Apparently 70 plus something of R’s trust Trump to tell the truth even more than friends, family, church leaders etc.
Out of curiosity…………….does anyone here think that Trump won the 2020 election?
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lms:
Out of curiosity…………….does anyone here think that Trump won the 2020 election?
I don’t think this is a particularly interesting or enlightening question. Biden was certified the winner, was sworn in as President, and has been exercising all of the Constitutional powers of the presidency (and, indeed, many unconstitutional powers!) since January 20, 2021. So as a simple matter of objective fact, he won and Trump lost.
The more meaningful and interesting question to me is whether the election that Biden won was run fairly and was unaffected by any questionable or corrupted election activity. And my answer to that is that it most likely was neither.
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So Scott, it sounds like you’re in the Giuliani/Trump etc camp claiming irregularities that haven’t been proven. I think it’s a simple question………………honestly, if you believe the unproven election irregularities put forth by Trump allies then Biden is not the duly elected President.
I’m somewhat shocked that you don’t even believe your hero, Bill Barr at this point.
Going forward, it’s a new election and may the best or worst man win I guess.
Thanks to Trump there is very little trust in our election process so we’re headed for some very troubled waters here in America!
I still can’t get beyond the indictment of Trump from approximately 100% of Republicans who are testifying against him. There must be something to that…………….
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It is undeniable that the Constitution empowers only the state legislatures to make changes to election law and that many Secretaries of State made changes to election law in direct contravention of the Constitution. That is a huge election irregularity. Things like extend early voting times, drop boxes, eliminating signature verification, counting mail-in ballots that arrived days after the election, etc was highly irregular. Biden’s margin of victory in key swing states was less than 44,000, a smaller amount than when Trump beat Hillary, and was the very definition of irregular.
To believe the election wasn’t highly irregular and suspect is the pollyannish, naive view. To think otherwise is irrational.
Sadly, Biden’s President and it shows.
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lms:
So Scott, it sounds like…
Well, if you didn’t want to engage the answer honestly, I don’t know why you bothered to ask the question.
Thanks to Trump there is very little trust in our election process…
A truly astonishing statement.
I still can’t get beyond the indictment of Trump from approximately 100% of Republicans who are testifying against him.
You are confused about the legal process. Witnesses do not bring indictments. Prosecutors do. And every single prosecutor who has brought an indictment is a partisan Democrat.
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By your definition, the Trump administration conducted a cleaner election than the Obama administration. So your high faith in the 2020 election was due to the competency of the Trump administration.
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Trump disagrees, but what you say makes sense.
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I still find this statement absolutely mind-boggling:
Thanks to Trump there is very little trust in our election process…
The Dems have been sowing doubt and undermining trust in our elections for literally years. How in the world, lms, can you be so gobsmackingly unaware of this?
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Scott, the Borg has disseminated its talking points to the Hive Mind and they are spewing the same talking points.
I seem to recall “Selected, Not Elected” and the left still litigating Florida up until 9/11.
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Yep, hive mind is exactly the correct term.
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“I agree that he’s totally dissing the Republican Party here and Fox News. I don’t really understand why though.”
To show he’s not beholden to either.
And he also recognizes the extent that they, just like most other institutions, are held in disdain by most people. Trump treats the media like an active participant in politics rather than continuing the pretense that they are some sort of neutral, objective information source for the voters.
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“Out of curiosity…………….does anyone here think that Trump won the 2020 election?”
No, but I wouldn’t characterize it as fair either due to all the various “emergency” rule changes.
If you prefer, he lost a rigged game.
While Barr convinced me that there wasn’t enough out and out voter fraud to swing the results, this piece in Time convinced me that there was more going on behind the scenes than I knew about at the time:
“The Secret History of the Shadow Campaign That Saved the 2020 Election”
https://time.com/5936036/secret-2020-election-campaign/
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lms:
I just noticed this:
I’m more interested in seeing DeSantis faceplant…
It doesn’t make a lot of sense to me when people who claim to think that Trump represents some kind of unique and existential threat to the nation simultaneously root for the failure of his primary competition. It suggests to me that such people are either being wholly dishonest in their claims about Trump, or they are fundamentally irrational.
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Every player on the other team is a piece of shit and so we want to see all of them fail, all the time. Trump’s “unique threat” was just a club to wield against him. But ever losing any election or in comprising in any way with the Hated Other represents an existential threat. So you always root for their defeat and failure.
I root for most politicians to come to their senses but that’s not going to happen.
Every lefty I know seems to pre-hate DeSantis. I get the feeling both represent different existential threats. They believe Trump represents a threat because he’s popular with his based and as more fans than any of them. DeSantis represents a threat because he looks like he can’t govern and so could hurt them practically.
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The left has considered every Republican president since Eisenhower to be Literally. Hitler.
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I love dogs so this article was already interesting to me. What it further did though was give insight to what it’s like to be a dog. It’s impossible to know what it’s like to be somebody else, let alone another species, this does provide some idea on at least how dogs interact with the world.
https://www.popsci.com/environment/dogs-sense-of-smell/
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Woke teens review older, teen movies.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/g5x3ky/american-pie-clueless-best-teen-movies-reviewed
It’s hilarious.
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Well, if you can’t trust a 16 year old boy about how much he respect women and wouldn’t just “say anything” to have sex like the bad old days, who can you trust?
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The naivete borders on the willful. Their parents are doing them no favors.
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Assuming the quotes are accurate and the piece has any basis in reality.
More likely, in the age of social media kids know what they are supposed to say in response to inquiries like that.
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I am sure that the choice of teens to comment is completely self-selected.
But Taylor is about to get a rude awakening when he starts dating….
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God, I hope not.
https://x.com/facethenation/status/1693277927566114833?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
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