Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
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quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Stocks are lower this morning after Fitch downgraded the US’s sovereign credit rating. Bonds and MBS are down.
Credit rating firm Fitch downgraded the US sovereign debt rating from AAA to AA+ yesterday. “The rating downgrade of the United States reflects the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing general government debt burden, and the erosion of governance relative to ‘AA’ and ‘AAA’ rated peers over the last two decades that has manifested in repeated debt limit standoffs and last-minute resolutions.”
Fitch sees US GDP growth slowing to 1.2% in 2023 and 0.5% in 2024. They expect a mild recession starting in Q4 and lasting into Q1. They also see one more Fed rate hike in September.
Note that S&P downgraded the US 12 years ago, so this is not as big of an event as the press is making it out to be.
Mortgage applications fell 3% last week as purchases and refis fell by the same amount. “Mortgage rates edged higher last week, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate’s increase to 6.93 percent leading to another decline in overall applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The purchase index decreased for the third straight week to its lowest level since the beginning of June and remains 26 percent behind last year’s levels. The decline in purchase activity was driven mainly by weaker conventional purchase application volume, as limited housing inventory and rates still close to 7 percent are crimping affordability for many potential homebuyers. The refinance market continues to feel the impact of these higher rates, and applications trailed last year’s pace by over 30 percent with many homeowners not looking for refinance opportunities.”
The economy added 324,000 jobs in July, according to the ADP Employment Report. As usual, leisure and hospitality jobs accounted for the bulk of the pickup. Wage growth continues to be decent, with job stayers reporting an increase of 6.2% YOY. Job changers saw an increase of 10.2%. That said, the increase for job stayers was the lowest since November 2021. The Street is looking for an increase of 200,000 jobs in Friday’s Employment Situation Report.
Rithm capital, formerly known as New Residential, announced second quarter earnings that were just about the company’s best ever. “Rithm had one of its best quarters ever,” said Michael Nierenberg, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Rithm Capital. “We had near record earnings, grew book value, acquired $1.4 billion of consumer loans and grew our SFR business with the acquisition of 371 units. Subsequent to quarter end, we announced the acquisition of Sculptor Capital Management. This acquisition helps accelerate our growth in the alternative asset management space, as Sculptor’s $34 billion of AUM complements Rithm’s $7bn of permanent equity capital and $30+ billion balance sheet. With the introduction of new capital rules being instituted on banks and the highest level of rates seen in 20+ years, the investing environment has not been this good in years.
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
Even the Washington Post has to admit it now:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/08/01/biden-said-his-son-earned-no-money-china-his-son-says-otherwise/
As a side note, it’s amazing what the Post considers an appropriate basis for granting anonymity now.
“A Biden aide, asking to not be identified because this concerned a campaign statement from 2020”
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Sadly it will have zero effect unless the Uniparty decides that Biden has to go.
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“ Sadly it will have zero effect unless the Uniparty decides that Biden has to go.”
Over-under on this? I’m putting chances of a Biden ejection at 5% unless catastrophic health event forces it and maybe not even then.
As much as they bellyache about TrumpHitler, the COVID/Trump/Biden/Floyd stuff has given their lives meaning and they want to do it all over again.
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“As a side note, it’s amazing what the Post considers an appropriate basis for granting anonymity now.”
You say a side note, for me this is the main story. I see Biden as a political creature, Trump as a narcissist and native political genius, Hunter as responding to incentives. Maybe they are all bad guys in the story to greater to lesser degrees but I don’t see them as the true demonic evil, the devils, the filthiest scum, the actual Nazis in the story.
That’s the press. The press in this country isn’t biased anymore. It’s not even propaganda. It’s a sociopathic entity bent on destroying everything it touches from the inside out. It does nothing but gaslight, and not even for self protection or elevation, but out of nihilism and sociopathy and perhaps a generalized hatred of humanity, truth, and beauty. I’m sure they don’t see it that way but that’s because the press in this country is collectively mentally ill.
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https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/trump-thrice-indicted-2020-election-case
THE MAGNUM OPUS of the Trump indictment frenzy arrived on Tuesday, with a four-count indictment out of a federal grand jury in Washington, D.C. It is Donald Trump’s second federal indictment, and his third overall—so far.
This new indictment brought by Special Counsel Jack Smith focuses on the various schemes to steal the 2020 presidential election from Joe Biden and—more critically—from the American voters, culminating in the ugly disgrace of the January 6th mob attack on the U.S. Capitol. The indictment is a big deal for the obvious reason that without it, the frontrunner for the 2024 GOP nomination for president would definitely have gotten away with having orchestrated an attempted violent coup against his own democratically elected government. He still might.
The four felony counts again Trump are:
conspiracy to defraud the United States, in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 371;
conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, that is, certification of the electoral vote, in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 1512(k);
obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding, in violation of 18 U.S.C. §§ 1512(c)(2) & 2; and
conspiracy to knowingly injure, oppress, threaten, and intimidate people in the free exercise of the right to vote under the Constitution, in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 241.
The document also lists six co-conspirators, four of them lawyers—and although it does not name them, some of their identities are easy to guess at (including Rudy Giuliani and John Eastman).
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The indictment offers a preview of how Smith and his team could present their case to a jury—if this case goes to trial. That possibility remains an “if” only because Donald Trump is running for president and polling at three times better than his next-best rival for the Republican nomination. If Trump were to be returned to the White House in January 2025, his Justice Department would undoubtedly drop all charges against him.
Short of a jury trial, the only other means of disposing of this case would be a plea (never gonna happen) or a successful motion to dismiss the indictment as legally flawed (also never gonna happen). So the possibility of going to trial, and seeing Trump convicted and sentenced to prison, is increasingly real. Smith isn’t messing around.
THE INDICTMENT READS LIKE a play in four acts. Act One unfolds as follows: Starting around November 13, 2020, and using “baseless fraud claims,” Trump pushed multiple state legislators and election officials to ignore or alter the electoral outcomes in his favor and otherwise disenfranchise voters.
In Act Two, Trump and his co-conspirators organized fraudulent slates of electors in seven states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—and even “tricked” certain fake electors into believing their fraudulent slates would be used only if Trump won his umpteen bogus lawsuits challenging the election results in court.
Keep up with all of The Bulwark’s coverage of the Trump prosecutions by signing up for a free or paid subscription today.
In Act Three, Trump tried to get Vice President Mike Pence to embrace the fraudulent electors, reject legitimate electoral votes, or not count legitimate ones—going so far as to even call him on Christmas and New Year’s Day, and to tell him (presumably according to Pence’s grand jury testimony), “You’re too honest” when Pence refused to play along.
In Act Four, after Pence’s final rejection of the scheme, Trump exploited the violent eruption at the Capitol by spreading lies about the election results and trying to convince multiple individual members of Congress to delay the certification, all while lying to the mob that Pence was abdicating his constitutional duty by refusing to abdicate his constitutional duty.
The basic facts underlying these alleged crimes—the “what happened” and “when” parts of the playbill summary—have long been well established. Not only did tens of millions of Americans (some horrified, others gleeful) watch the chaos and violence unfold in real time on television on January 6th, but over the course of 2022, the House January 6th Committee skillfully amassed substantial evidence and produced a must-watch television series for the American public outlining what happened, as well as a final report that anticipated some of the charges in this indictment.
Nonetheless, there still remains a question mark over Donald Trump’s state of mind. The relevant law requires that he had knowledge that the scheme was unlawful and/or that he intentionally broke the law. Beginning on page 6 of the 45-page indictment, Smith’s team knocks the state-of-mind factor out of the park, underscoring the ludicrousness of the suggestion that Trump was oblivious to what he was doing. The indictment catalogues loads of false statements by the former president—e.g., that there were over 10,000 dead voters in Georgia, 205,000 more votes than voters in Pennsylvania, tens of thousands of double votes in Nevada, and over 30,000 non-citizens allowed to vote in Arizona.
The indictment also lists a slew of people who told Trump that the suggestion that he won the election was false, including Pence, senior DOJ officials, the director of national intelligence, cybersecurity experts at the Department of Homeland Security, senior White House counsel, senior campaign staffers, state legislators and officials, and numerous judges who ruled against Trump and his unethical legal team that peddled countless falsehoods in courts of law across the country. Many of them can be expected to testify at trial.
The fact that so many people were nonetheless complicit in this scheme remains, some two and a half years later, a stunning and appalling fact. This indictment is a step toward justice. And it is a document of historic importance. But it is also—for the Republican party and for America as a whole—a reckoning. Because Trump’s treasonous, criminal, and malevolent character, as described in this indictment, is exactly what could get him re-elected in 2024.
I’m sure this won’t go anywhere here but understanding that the indictment and testimony comes from former Trump supporters, staffers and even his VP makes a compelling argument. Some Republicans are willing to tell the truth. We can spin our wheels with distractions (Hunter Biden) or recognize that our former president will probably be a felon! That seems like a big mess to me!
Also, I read the posts regarding healthcare and unwelcomed diagnoses. I’m super empathetic to all of you. I’ve taken care of 4 family members here in my home without insurance for outside care and I know how tough it is. Looking back though, I was grateful for the moments and the memories even though at the time I didn’t know how I would survive. It’s very difficult. Wishing you all the best!
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We have become Malaysia where political leaders throw their chief political rivals into prison.
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At least Malaysia has economic growth. The Malaysians kick back to the right American corporations.
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The best for you as well, LMS!
Re Trump, enjoy! He will be sent to prison and we are in for, arguably, the greatest spectacle in American history! I’m super excited!
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I’m not looking forward to the spectacle McWing. It’s neither entertaining nor funny IMO.
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Why not? It doesn’t raise your taxes, change your real estate valuation or alter the non-existent budgeting process. There will be zero effect on you or your family. In addition you and your political compatriots get to essentially condemn your chief political opponent with zero risk of reprisals. Why not enjoy it?
I’m being serious here.
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lms:
I’m sure this won’t go anywhere here…
Then why post it?
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“or recognize that our former president will probably be a felon!”
and possibly next president:
Leading the parade of Trump indictments with Alvin Bragg and the Stormy Daniels payments lessened the impact of the subsequent ones. Now it’s just comes across as more of the same. And he was already impeached for it.
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The democrats are increasing the party of bitter and resentful women
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They are the party of elevating overwrought emotion over reason.
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A few observations on the latest indictments.
It is interesting that none of the charges are related at all to the J6 riot at the Capitol, given that, but for that riot, these charges would almost certainly not exist.
If an attempt to advance absurd legal theories during the course of a legal proceeding represents a “fraud” on the United States, virtually all lawyers are guilty of committing fraud, as are most modern Supreme Court Justices. Indeed, a vast array of currently existing court precedent is grounded in the obviously false notion that the 14th Amendment encoded the concept of substantive due process into the Constitution. Justice Kennedy should certainly be imprisoned for his ridiculous legal theories forwarded in his Obergefell opinion, as should all 7 Justices who signed on to the Roe majority (as the Court has itself finally acknowledged). Hell, the Wise Latina should probably be in jail for pretty much virtually anything she has ever written!
Shouldn’t Biden be indicted for attempting to defraud the US by cancelling student debt under a “knowingly false” legal theory?
Should Jack Smith himself be indicted for his fraudulent prosecution of Bob McDonnell? Afterall, SCOTUS overturned the conviction 8-0 saying that the legal theory under which he was prosecuted was garbage. I strongly suspect that a special prosecutor investigation of Smith would turn up evidence of Smith being told by various people that his legal theory was wrong, and thus it could be said that he knew the arguments he was making were false, but he fraudulently advanced them anyway.
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Always assume bad faith when dealing with the left.
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“Some Republicans are willing to tell the truth”
I feel like this sentiment really translates as: “some Republicans agree with me and that’s what provides emotional satisfaction, factual accuracy is in fact irrelevant”… as political truth seems to be evoked not as something factual but rather as something involving “self-evident” moral truths. Like “orange man bad”.
But in general I think we can agree Trump has been a negative political and cultural force generally. We might disagree about how important a role his opponents play in perpetuating and enabling his negative impact, and how much his negative impact is reactive from his “noble” opponents who could have actually minimized his negative impact but instead amplified it while pretending to heroically battle the bad orange man.
Meh. I judge much of what the Trump admin accomplished positive but ultimately not worth the price of Trump politically or culturally.
Which is more than I can say for, say, Biden, who has many of the negatives if not more in some ways and no positives from my perspective. Ah well. I may outlive them both and maybe live long e laugh to see us have a better and more adult administration, that is still hated and reviled by half the country because that’s what we do now instead of think.
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It’s a good interview and Tucker uses a light touch.
https://redstate.com/jenvanlaar/2023/08/02/new-tucker-carlson-interview-reveals-joe-biden-was-part-of-devon-archer-and-hunter-bidens-business-partnership-n786437
Tucker is/ was friends with Hunter through their wives and I suspect he was/is friends with Archer.
It’s worth watching and it’s obvious he (Archer) doesn’t want to be appear to be disloyal. He is pretty revealing however.
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The Biden campaign is hilariously calling Fitch’s downgrade of US debt the “Trump downgrade”.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/biden-officials-protest-bizarre-fitch-downgrade-cite-trump-era-woes/ar-AA1eF39E
“This Trump downgrade is a direct result of an extreme MAGA Republican agenda defined by chaos, callousness, and recklessness that Americans continue to reject,” Munoz said, noting that Trump encouraged Republicans in Congress to “do the default” over the debt ceiling this year.
Absurdly, CNN blames the downgrade on Jan 6, citing anonymous sources.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/01/business/fitch-downgrade-us-debt/index.html
lms probably finds all this “compelling”, too. It is absolutely amazing what TDS will lead people to say.
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He learned “Not My Fault ™” from the master.
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Biden’s spending bills and the resulting impact on the deficit & debt of course had nothing to do with it.
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Surprised they didn’t shoehorn “trickle-down economics” in there too.
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