Morning Report: Americans are re-leveraging 11/20/15

Markets are higher this morning after Mario Draghi said the ECB will do what it must to raise inflation as quickly as possible. Bonds and MBS are rallying.

Fed Heads Bullard and Dudley will be speaking on the economy today.

Weakness in Europe has pushed bond yields down overseas, and the relative value trade should start having an effect here. The German Bund has been incredibly volatile over the past year, trading in a range of 5 basis points to 106 basis points. It currently stands at 47 basis points and looks to be headed lower.

Home sales stalled in October, according to Redfin. Sales increased 0.3%, and the median house price rose about 6% year over year. TRID probably played a role in bumping up September’s numbers and lowering October’s.

Americans are re-leveraging. Household debt reached $12 trillion in the third quarter according to the New York Fed. Mortgage debt, student loan debt and auto loans all increased. The delinquency rate for student loans is an astounding 11.6%.

Credit is loosening somewhat, according to Ellie Mae. Average FICO scored dropped a point to 722. Note that time to close a loan (46 days) did not increase in October, so if TRID is slowing down closings, it isn’t apparent in the numbers, at least not yet.

80 Responses

  1. The Atlantic proposes that HBC’s could be the “safe spaces” that minority students are seeking:

    “Shani O. Hilton, an editor at Buzzfeed who recently coordinated a project highlighting HBCUs, said on Another Round, “There’s something about when you strip away the oppressive bullshit of white supremacy from your life in terms of your everyday making moments—from walking down the street, crossing the quad, getting in line to get a meal, sitting in class—that toll of, ‘Did that person do that because I’m black?’ is gone.” She told Clayton, “It just opens up your mind and gives you an elevation to your step to your way of moving around the world that I think is hard to replicate in other environment.”

    http://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2015/11/are-hbcus-necessary-racial-sanctuaries/416694/

    And the great thing is that then the rest of us don’t have to put up with your bullshit either. Win-Win.

    Like

  2. Ah, they still won’t shut up…

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  3. I remember cutting a line for airport security .. or more acurately, the line to get into the line for security.

    i had been up for 17 hours and just didn’t see the guy. was in a daze at 6am at JFK after landing from Thailand and needed to catch a connection to DCA. and the couple was black. i denounce myself.

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  4. We nasty white people are still on campus at HBCUs. Ms Hilton doesn’t know what she’s talking about.

    Like

  5. ” Half a century later students of color may not have the same type of fear of violence, but they are still protesting for the right to feel included at their universities.”

    that’s just amazing to me.

    Like

    • nova:

      that’s just amazing to me.

      The identity politics of the left has done a huge amount of damage to the both the culture and, as a result, the psychological makeup of huge swaths of people. Everyone is a victim of….something.

      Like

  6. Why?

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  7. “for the right to feel included at their universities”

    What do those words even mean?

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    • Brent:

      What do those words even mean?

      In the world of the left, they mean whatever the speaker wants them to mean.

      This is why the universities (faculty, admin) are having such a difficult time dealing with these obnoxious kids. The kids are simply acting on the premises that the university “adults” themselves have adopted and been spouting. They can’t do what they need to do to put an end to these inanities because to do so would go against their entire worldview. They are hoist by their own petard, to coin a phrase.

      Like

  8. Are they banned from attending classes, joining clubs, participating in campus life in any way? if not, they’re not excluded.

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    • nova:

      Are they banned from attending classes, joining clubs, participating in campus life in any way? if not, they’re not excluded.

      You forget that progressives really and truly do not believe in an objective reality. If someone “feels” excluded, then they are excluded. It is all about subjective feelings, not objective facts.

      Like

  9. NoVA: from the comments here, I can tell that we don’t have a basis for conversation on this. I’ve seen it from both sides, and I’ll just say that, in general, minority’s voices are heard on campuses, but to a limited extent.

    I know, believe it or not.

    Like

    • Mich:

      minority’s voices are heard on campuses, but to a limited extent.

      Which “voices” get more attention and traction on a campus, a group of black people protesting some imagined racial offense, or a group of white people protesting, say, abortion?

      The question answers itself, and not in the way you imply.

      Like

  10. Define being heard to a full extent? Is there a difference between being heard and having desires/demands fulfilled?

    Like

    • McWing:

      Is there a difference between being heard and having desires/demands fulfilled?

      It is almost a dead certainty that, even by the latter standard, minority “voices” are “heard” to a greater extent than anyone else.

      Like

  11. I think they are piggybacking on the legitimate concerns about disparities in policing and running with it.

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  12. Whatever, Scott. You just made my point.

    Like

    • Whatever, Scott. You just made my point.

      The inevitable catch-22 of the twilight zone world that is the left. To challenge a claim of victimhood is proof of the victimization. Absurd.

      Like

  13. What is the difference between being heard and having one’s demands/desires fufilled?

    Like

  14. If you can have professors and administrators summarily fired at will, you have a bigger voice than everyone else…

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    • Brent:

      If you can have professors and administrators summarily fired at will, you have a bigger voice than everyone else…

      Seems pretty much undeniable, I would think. And yet…

      Like

  15. No. That conversation here is impossible now.

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    • Mich:

      That conversation here is impossible now.

      Perhaps for you. For those of us willing to address challenges to our premises, not so much.

      Like

  16. Scott, the destroyer of worlds.

    And conversations.

    Like

    • McWing:

      Scott, the destroyer of worlds.

      And conversations.

      ATiM history is littered with the corpses of potentially interesting conversations prematurely snuffed out by me doing what I do: Challenging the leftist canon.

      Like

  17. Only if premises agree with you. Otherwise, meh. Just look at your posts.

    Like

    • Mich:

      Only if premises agree with you.

      Not at all. I am more than willing to have you challenge my premises. Have at it. I will not stomp away in a huff. In fact I am extremely interested just which premises of mine you disagree with.

      Like

  18. Well, if I have to tell you…

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  19. Commenter: “I support X.”

    Scott: “Why?”

    Commenter: “Conversation over misogynist bigot!”

    Like

  20. Not at all. I am more than willing to have you challenge my premises. Have at it. I will not stomp away in a huff. In fact I am extremely interested just which premises of mine you disagree with.

    That’s exactly what ISIS wants!

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  21. I still don’t know what they mean when they say they don’t feel included…

    Like

  22. I am more than willing to have you challenge my premises

    Not actually. You’re just looking for a patsy.

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  23. I still don’t know what they mean when they say they don’t feel included

    It is, often, difficult to get your viewpoint recognized when it doesn’t match that of the people in charge.I think that’s what they mean–something that, to black urban 18 – 20 year olds isn’t instatntly obvious to the rest of us.

    Like

    • Mich:

      It is, often, difficult to get your viewpoint recognized when it doesn’t match that of the people in charge.

      You’ve basically just rephrased the original assertion, using “viewpoint recognized” in place of “voice heard”. It still isn’t clear how one goes about establishing that a viewpoint is “recognized” or a voice “heard”.

      But in any event, if it is a viewpoint which differs from “the people in charge” that is the relevant metric, then I suspect that white conservatives on campus have a far greater claim to not having their voice heard, or their viewpoint recognized, than does a group of black liberals.

      Like

      • Let’s use a simple, hypothetical example.

        Say I am a conservative, registered Republican student at Harvard. All of my professors, and most of the other students around me, are liberal Democrats (if not outright socialists). I feel uncomfortable and isolated.

        How can I tell if my “voice” is being heard, or if my viewpoint is being “recognized”?

        Like

  24. Mind you, I have almost as little patience with whiny undergraduates as you guys do. Maybe less, since I have to actually teach them.

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  25. “I feel uncomfortable and isolated.”

    that’s only because they make you take all your classes in Room 101.

    Like

    • nova:

      that’s only because they make you take all your classes in Room 101.

      And each class is a Womyn’s Theory class taught enthusiastically by my daughters. My own worst nightmare.

      Like

  26. “Michigoose, on November 20, 2015 at 9:56 am said:

    We nasty white people are still on campus at HBCUs. Ms Hilton doesn’t know what she’s talking about.”

    Sure she does. She doesn’t want any white people around who would challenge her assertions. A few token whites who agree with her goes a long way to validating that.

    It’s the same argument that progressives make about how the Republican party views black conservatives, with the exception that the token whites tend to be the Rachel Dolezal types. I’ll put up a token like Clarence Thomas against her any day of the week.

    Like

    • Kevin Drum from Mother Jones isn’t specifically calling out Obama over his petulant condescension and snark with regard to the Syrian refugees, but he might as well be.

      Mocking Republicans over this—as liberals spent much of yesterday doing on my Twitter stream—seems absurdly out of touch to a lot of people. Not just wingnut tea partiers, either, but plenty of ordinary centrists too. It makes them wonder if Democrats seriously see no problem here. Do they care at all about national security? Are they really that detached from reality?

      The liberal response to this should be far more measured. We should support tight screening. Never mind that screening is already pretty tight. We should highlight the fact that we’re accepting a pretty modest number of refugees. In general, we should act like this is a legitimate thing to be concerned about and then work from there.

      Mocking it is the worst thing we could do. It validates all the worst stereotypes about liberals that we put political correctness ahead of national security. It doesn’t matter if that’s right or wrong. Ordinary people see the refugees as a common sense thing to be concerned about. We shouldn’t respond by essentially calling them idiots. That way lies electoral disaster.

      I think there is an implied parenthetical in that penultimate line: “(…even though they are)”. But still, if you’ve lost Mother Jones…

      http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2015/11/liberals-should-knock-mockery-over-calls-limit-syrian-refugees

      Like

  27. Scott:

    Registered Republicans are ~24% of Harvard students, while registered Democrats are ~33%. Men are still the majority as are whites, so no worries there. I don’t really think you’d feel all that isolated.

    Like

    • Mich:

      Registered Republicans are ~24% of Harvard students, while registered Democrats are ~33%.

      67% of all Harvard students self-identify as liberal.

      http://www.myplan.com/education/colleges/college_rankings_14.php

      And you’ve notably ignored the faculty (for obvious reasons).

      But anyway, whether or not the assumptions of the hypothetical reflect actual conditions is neither here nor there. That is precisely the purpose of a hypothetical. (If you wanted to dismiss the question on the basis of the assumptions made in the hypothetical, the most obvious grounds to do so would be that I am not in fact a student at Harvard!) Again, my question is a hypothetical. I am assuming certain conditions, and asking you to explain how it can be determined, under those conditions, whether or not my viewpoint, which is counter to the prevailing viewpoint of most others on campus, including those “in charge”, is “recognized” or not. Will you?

      Like

  28. What does being listened to mean? Can one be considered listened to if their demands/desires are not acted upon?

    Like

  29. Fuck you, collaborator. Die in a fire.

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/hhs-bailing-out-obamacare-insurers-obligation-of-the-govt/article/2576837

    Did I do that right? Obama won’t sign a repeal, why won’t my voice be heard?!?!?

    Like

    • McWing:

      Fuck you, collaborater.

      More proof that 1)it is government regulations, not the lack of it, which produces the “need” for bailouts and 2) the government can and will bail out whoever it wants, whenever it wants. Anyone who claims, as so many have, that increased regulations, whether in insurance or banking or any other industry, can or will somehow prevent the “need” for government bailouts, is kidding themselves.

      Like

  30. The UNH story was all over Bloomberg today, and WaPo basically ignored it.

    Like

  31. Say I am a conservative, registered Republican student at Harvard.

    Good job moving those goal posts.

    Like

  32. Only leftists journalists who sign a pledge of loyalty to the cause are allowed to cover protests at Smith College…

    https://reason.com/blog/2015/11/20/smith-college-students-say-journalists-m#comment

    Like

  33. Mich:

    Good job moving those goal posts

    What are you talking about? I posed a hypothetical question. The question stands, as asked. And, unsurprisingly, remains unanswered. I think we all know why.

    Like

  34. How does one know when one’s viewpoint is recognized?

    It is, often, difficult to get your viewpoint recognized when it doesn’t match that of the people in charge.I think that’s what they mean–something that, to black urban 18 – 20 year olds isn’t instatntly obvious to the rest of us.

    Like

    • What should be done?

      About Mexicans leaving? Don’t fence them in, I guess.

      About re-leveraging? Try to avoid it, if you can.

      About refugees? Screen the hell out of them. Make it a long process. Polygraph and local verification if possible. Don’t take in dummies who will end up unemployed and disgruntled fodder for bad shit.

      About ISIS? Support Kurds, and other Muslim fighters on the ground against them. Help Med allies prepare for attacks because that is where the attacks will be – these 7th C. fundamentalist throwbacks believe the Med Sea is their heritage. Accommodate Iran’s interest in wiping out ISIS, if we can find a way to do it. All the faces of ISIS opponents on the ground should appear to be Muslim. Don’t give ’em the satisfaction of yelling “Crusades!” Let Putin in on our plans.

      Like

      • Mark:

        Don’t take in dummies who will end up unemployed and disgruntled fodder for bad shit.

        Agreed. We’ve got enough of those on our campuses already.

        Like

  35. Congrats, Michi!

    Like

  36. OMG, Brent!
    Yay!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Like

  37. Michi: It is, often, difficult to get your viewpoint recognized when it doesn’t match that of the people in charge.I think that’s what they mean–something that, to black urban 18 – 20 year olds isn’t instatntly obvious to the rest of us.

    Is it possible that this is the first time they have been challenged in any academic aspect and they go for the easy excuse?

    Like

  38. Checked out the pl this morning. Morning fellow fascists!

    Like

  39. Kevin Drum in Mother Jones has a good piece on how a large chunk of the “outrageous” comments are due to being baited by the press.

    http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2015/11/press-needs-stop-encouraging-republican-lunacy-toward-muslims

    Having said that, Trump & Carson need to stop taking the bait.

    Like

  40. This whole “brown shirts” scare is both ridiculous and enlightening. There is one thing to do with actual brown shirts. That doesn’t seem to occur to them.

    Like

    • There is one thing to do with actual brown shirts.

      Tie-dye them and sell them in Rodeo Drive boutiques as high fashion for men. Right?

      Like

  41. Checked out the pl this morning. Morning fellow fascists!

    Is Al still pulling the “Stalin was a right winger” shit?

    Like

  42. He’s melting down over the state of the R primary. I guess full democracy is only okay if it gets the result you want.

    Tie die is any option I suppose

    Like

    • nova:

      I guess full democracy is only okay if it gets the result you want.

      The left pretty much always places its policy desires above the form of government. Hence its basic disdain for the constitution.

      Like

  43. It is so interesting to see the left get all bent out of shape over evangelists yet they embrace Islam for some reason…As if getting pissy about forcing nuns to buy birth control is worse than mass murder…

    Like

  44. It goes back to the Liberal conceit that man can be perfected by government.

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  45. Indeed, Scott

    Like

    • McWing:

      A couple of simple questions for the author of that nonsense:

      If the “white” history, tradition, and culture of these “HWCUs” make you feel uncomfortable and unwelcome, why would you want to attend and then work at one?

      Why should whites accept and validate your feelings about campus culture when you explicitly dismiss and reject their feelings about campus culture.

      Why should your desire to transform the “white” culture at a “HWCU” trump the desire of others to maintain that culture?

      Like

  46. I still want to know what it means to have one’s voice heard?

    Like

    • McWing:

      I’m hoping this collaborator goes bankrupt

      I think that is unlikely. They will just opt out of the exchanges if the government fails to come up with the money to cover their losses.

      But then the left can begin the next phase of the program…greedy insurance companies are making Obamacare fail. The only solution is to have the government itself provide the “coverage” and cut the insurance companies out of the process. Single payer is on its way.

      Like

  47. @McWing: “I still want to know what it means to have one’s voice heard?”

    You shut up, listen to me, then do exactly what I say.

    Then my voice is heard. Also, you’re only allowed to speak if it’s in agreement with me. And not ironic or sarcastic agreement. It has to be sincere. If not, then you are punished or exiled.

    And I am truly, fully heard.

    Like

    • Brent:

      The mentality of the #SJW left…

      The author was doing a good job, right up until the end. Then he went off the rails with this:

      Finally, what SJWs do not realize is that they are single-handedly cultivating a generation of fascists. The more extreme the left becomes, the more right-wing and reactionary people will become as a result.

      The SJWs are the fascists.

      Like

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