Morning Report: New Home Sales fall but prices rise 13.5% 10/26/15

Posted on October 26, 2015 by Brent Nyitray

Stocks are flattish this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up.

New Home Sales fell in September to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 468,000, down from 529,000 in August. The median home price rose 13.5% however to $296,000. So, inventory is tight, and the builders continue to raise prices but aren’t really ramping up production. Builder sentiment is at a 10 year high, but building permits continue to disappoint. Strange state of affairs.

The FOMC meets this Tuesday and Wednesday. The decision will be out around 2:00 on Wednesday. The markets are handicapping a very low probability of a move at this meeting (something under 10%). Mohammed El-Arian lays out the no-action case.

We will get some important economic data this week with Durable Goods tomorrow and Case-Shiller. On Wed we will get the FOMC decision, and on Thursday, the first estimate of third quarter GDP. Finally, on Friday we get personal income and personal spending. GDP, the FOMC statement, and personal income / personal spending are the biggest chances of volatility in the bond markets.

Deutsche Bank is predicting a good holiday season this year for retailers. The average consumer intends to spend about $812 on gifts this year, which is about the same level in 2007. Punch line: “U.S. consumers don’t seem to worry about the risk of a hard landing in China, the widening of high yield credit spreads, a potential government shutdown, Brazilian corporate debt levels or low bond market liquidity.”  We will get personal income and personal spending data on Friday. FedEx confirmed they expect record shipments this holiday season.

House prices rose 0.3% last month and are up 5.5% from a year ago, according to Black Knight Financial Services. The index came in at $253,000, which is off 5.3% from its June 2006 peak of $268,000.

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You be the Judge! 10/26/15

Posted on October 26, 2015 by markinaustin

Click to access 14-5194.pdf

 

Please read the opinion that I link above.  There is no question but that the decision in the case is a correct one based on the limits of Supreme Court investiture of a person’s right to enforce a remedy for a governmental violation of liberty after the violation has occurred.

However, as a Judge in this case you would have a choice to make, if you thought the 4th and 5th Amendments should provide such a remedy, lest the protections become stripped of meaning.  There are several possible choices here, by the way.  I probably would have recognized the Bivens right as extending to this man in this situation because the FBI intended to use his coerced confession in a criminal proceeding, reading between the lines.  But I would have stayed my Judgment pending Supreme Court review.

What would you have written?

 

Filed under: Constitution | Tagged: | 8 Comments »