Morning Report: New Speaker and the markets 9/28/15

Stocks are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up.

We have some important data this week, with construction spending, the ISM data and the jobs report on Friday. The market is forecasting a jump in wage inflation and that will be the number everyone is going to focus on.

Personal Spending rose 0.4% and Personal Income rose 0.3% in August. Inflation came in at 0.1% month-over-month and up 1.3% year-over-year.

Pending Home Sales fell 1.4% in August, but are up 6.7% year-over-year.

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index came in less negative than forecast.

On Friday, Speaker of the House John Boehner announced he was resigning. At the margin, it probably means a clean continuing resolution (in other words, no government shutdown). This isn’t going to matter to the markets one way or another – they recognize government shutdowns and debt ceiling fights as what they are: a chance for politicians to posture, and otherwise something to ignore.

The favorite to replace Boehner is Kevin McCarthy from California.

Speaking of government shutdowns and the debt ceiling, it does have an effect on the bond markets. The debt ceiling’s proximity means the government has to issue less T-bills than it ordinarily would, which makes them scarce and therefore they have ultra-low interest rates. This is bad news for money market funds and other savers. That said, ZIRP is the primary reason the issue.

31 Responses

  1. I came, I saw, I fristed.

    Do not care if there is a government shutdown, myself. All looks like political theater from where I’m sitting.

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  2. Nobody likes Sec Clinton, McWing. I’d give my eyeteeth for a better candidate.

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  3. Perhaps, but there is endless defense of her on DKOS, ThinkProgress, MMFA and DU. Was suprised by HuffPo’s tone.

    Don’t forget, no one liked Nixon either but he was elected twice.

    In landslides.

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  4. i saw a bernie sanders sign in my neighborhood. so it’s confirmed that morons live among us.

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  5. Only people who are going on about a government shutdown are progressive bloggers like Greg Sargent trying to generate outrage from something that’s not going to happen.

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  6. Feel good story of the day…

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  7. Well, in fairness to Hack Sargent, the VA kills less vets during shutdowns. His gas lighting would save lives.

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  8. Makes ya think…

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  9. what is he doing to that microphone?

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  10. Does he believe this?

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  11. Poor Dr. Cowbell. Stiglitz and Piketty get gigs with Labour while he sits and lectures divided government about the benefit of an activist government…

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  12. @mcwing: “Does he believe this?”

    The Tribune Publishing CEO? Yeah, it’s kind of a pre-requisite for the job. Ultimately, I think a lot of people in newspaper publishing know that (even more than with magazines) there’s still an ongoing shakeout, and there will only be boutique print papers left at the end of it. Which will make those Very Important Newspapers. Because there is still a Chicago Tribune and a New York Times and a Wall Street Journal in print at the newsstand.

    But print papers have been dying since the debut of television news. The desire to still have a print edition of any paper rests exclusively with old folks and people who want them for aesthetic reasons (like folks who still shoot pictures on film and develop the negative in chemicals and print the photos in their darkroom—it’s a lifestyle choice, of no utilitarian value).

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  13. @mcwing: “Makes ya think…”

    That I don’t care what Krugman says? I can deal with the fact he’s a liberal, and that he’s got a partisan agenda, but for a Nobel-prize winning economist to be so superficial and unthoughtful and knee-jerk . . . he has no excuse. Shame on you, Paul Krugman! Shame on you!

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  14. There is no home for pedants in politics!

    http://theweek.com/articles/579513/why-gop-true-party-free-stuff

    Sorry, tax breaks to anybody at any level for any reason is not “free stuff”! People getting to keep more of the money they earn, or are given, are or awarded, for any reason, is not the same as redistributing wealth through entitlement and welfare spending, no matter how principled and noble such wealth-redistribution truly is or is fancied to be.

    Tax breaks for the rich may be a good or bad idea tactically, in the context of economic growth or spurring innovation or what have you. Wealth redistribution may be a good idea in some context (I think, in the case of the Interstate System and and the space program and, to some degree, in maintaing a strong military defense it is).

    But tax breaks, even those “violently skewed” towards the very wealthiest in the country, is NOT giving them “free stuff”.

    Ugh.

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    • Kevin:

      But tax breaks, even those “violently skewed” towards the very wealthiest in the country, is NOT giving them “free stuff”.

      It is the standard lefty delusion that not taking someone’s money is the equivalent to giving them money. So much of the progressive project relies on linguistic deception.

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  15. Milbank mocks McCarthy’s mush-mouthed malpropisms noting they were from prepared remarks.

    Kevin McCarthy is about to ascend to the highest office in the House of Representatives and become second in line to the presidency.

    But there is a problem: The speaker-apparent apparently still can’t speak.

    I have been tracking the California Republican’s valiant but often unsuccessful struggles with the English language for some time now, and I was alarmed to watch him lose another round on Monday during a foreign-policy speech to the John Hay Initiative, a new outfit of the neo-conservative bent.

    “If I look at history of where we are it seems a lot like 1979,” McCarthy informed his audience in the ballroom of Washington’s St. Regis hotel.

    “We must engage this war of radical Islam if our life depended on it because it does,” he opined.

    It looks like the battle for Speaker is going to be a free for-all with Scalise wanting to jump ahead of McCarthy and Ryan and some others backing someone else for majority leader over Scalise.

    Looks like everybody is going to the mattresses and the long knives are coming out. If only Cantor were still in the fray.

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  16. Hopefully they all lose.

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  17. So who should be Speaker of the House and Majority Leader?

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  18. A randomly drawn name from the Social Secuirty database.

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  19. ooh, Dana’s so smart!

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  20. I stopped reading Milibank. he’s not that good of a writer and has a serious case of the fredo’s — i’m smart!

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  21. Why shouldn’t we nullify the public portion of the debt?

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  22. Asian countries hold some of it, pension plans hold some of it. What if we nullify the public portion, money loaned by the Fed?

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  23. @Scottc1: “It is the standard lefty delusion that not taking someone’s money is the equivalent to giving them money. So much of the progressive project relies on linguistic deception.”

    Uh-huh. “Facts have a liberal bias” my ass.

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    • KW:

      Uh-huh. “Facts have a liberal bias” my ass.

      It is quite ironic. The linguistic deceptions adopted by the drivers of the leftist narrative, and the mindless adoption of them by the ordinary party faithful, result in the left spending much of its time trying to avoid the facts. From “women’s health” to “subsidizing” Walmart to “free stuff” as tax breaks, the left is incessantly trying to shield itself from reality.

      Like

  24. Is this true? I’m not sure.

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  25. Like

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