Morning Report: Jobs report data dump 8/7/15

Markets are flat after the jobs report. Bonds and MBS are up small

Jobs report data dump:

  • Payrolls 215k vs 225k expected
  • Unemployment rate 5.3% in line
  • Average hourly earnings 0.2% in line
  • Underemployment rate 10.4%
  • Labor force participation rate 62.6% in line

The jobs report is okay, nothing special. It shows the job market is slowly getting better. It doesn’t change anything with respect to the Fed’s thinking.

31 Responses

  1. Radley Balko nails it: The Jon Stewart dissonance: Brilliantly exposed the absurdity, mendacity of politicians . . . while advocating that we give them more power.

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    • Brent:

      The Jon Stewart dissonance: Brilliantly exposed the absurdity, mendacity of politicians . . . while advocating that we give them more power.

      Spot on.

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  2. Since 2007: 1.4 Million Manufacturing Jobs Lost; 1.4 Million Waiter/Bartender Jobs Gained

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-07/holy-grail-americas-new-economy-waiter-bartender-jobs-have-increased-64-past-65-mont

    speaks to why the data says strength, but the perception is anything but. Not all full time jobs are equal…

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  3. Bouncing on the bottom.

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  4. To my point the other day.

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  5. Re: FactCheck.org concerning the debate.

    “Businessman Donald Trump said his net worth is $10 billion, but outside estimates put the figure much lower.”

    Outside estimates? You call that a fact check?

    “Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush twice claimed that he cut taxes in the state by $19 billion. But that includes cuts in Florida estate taxes mandated by federal law that Bush had nothing to do with.”

    And Obama has never taken credit for jobs created in, say, Texas, which he “had nothing to do with?”

    “Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker claimed his state “more than made up” for the job losses from the recession. That’s a stretch. The state has gained 4,000 jobs since the start of the recession.”

    “That’s a stretch” isn’t a “fact check.” If the state has “gained 4000 jobs since the start of the recession” then his statement is factually correct.

    “Boasting about his education initiatives while governor, Bush claimed that the graduation rate “improved by 50 percent.” But most of the increase happened after Bush left office; the rate increased about 13 percent when he was governor.”

    If “his education iniatives while governor” resulted in the improvement in the graduation rate, then it doesn’t really matter that they occurred after he left office, does it?

    “Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee repeated the old claim that Obamacare “robbed” Medicare of $700 billion. That’s a reduction in the future growth of spending over 10 years.”

    Yes, but have you ever heard a Democrat refer to a proposed “reduction in the future growth” of a program as a “cut?”

    Who fact checks the fact-checker? There are more lies here than one usually hears in a political debate.

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  6. Isn’t factcheck.org a democratic party spin group?

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  7. This is pretty good from Ezra Klein:

    “This is Donald Trump’s secret, his strategy, his power. Trump is a honey badger. He just doesn’t fucking care. He will never, ever give an inch. Better to be a monster than a wuss.”

    http://www.vox.com/2015/8/6/9114505/donald-trump-honey-badger-gop-debate

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  8. @jnc4p: “He will never, ever give an inch.”

    Yeah, crazy, right? Why would that be attractive? Why would anybody respect that?

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  9. @Brent: “Isn’t factcheck.org a democratic party spin group?”

    Is it? I thought it was an independent group. Meaning that the fact it was staffed by registered Democrats is completely coincidental, and not related to the group’s mission.

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  10. @McWing: “My generation had no Cronkite, no Rather, no Jennings; godfathers of reason… but for Jon. He was it. He was ours. Thanks, Jon.”

    I think that person is confused. That being said, that’s not Jon’s fault. Hint: the show was on a channel called “Comedy Central”. And had a live studio audience and, I’m pretty sure, a laugh track.

    What’s more, Jon clearly editorialized. Cronkite—practically a communist—editorialized only rarely in his long career. Jon’s was an opinion show in much the way Rush Limbaugh or Glenn Beck are opinion shows. I can see a little similarity between later-era Dan Rather and Jon Stewart, except Rather was more bitter and less funny.

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  11. ““That’s a stretch” isn’t a “fact check.” If the state has “gained 4000 jobs since the start of the recession” then his statement is factually correct.”

    Hah! You’re being technically accurate. That’s cheating when Republicans do it.

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  12. @ScottC/Brent: “The Jon Stewart dissonance: Brilliantly exposed the absurdity, mendacity of politicians . . . while advocating that we give them more power.”

    I’ve watched a few Jon Stewart shows and mostly it seems like he exposed the absurdity and mendacity of politicians while advocating that they “should do things better”. Kind of like the Derek Zoolander of political consultants. Rather than advocating we give politicians more power, he mostly seemed to advocate that certain key liberal issues are self-evidently the only correct way to think about things, and should naturally come to pass, and anyone who disagreed with him was an idiot. But the arrogance of that position was okay because he was self-effacing and funny.

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    • KW:

      Rather than advocating we give politicians more power, he mostly seemed to advocate that certain key liberal issues are self-evidently the only correct way to think about things, and should naturally come to pass, and anyone who disagreed with him was an idiot.

      To advocate on behalf of certain key liberal issues (O-care, the welfare state, the environment, climate change, etc.) is, pretty much by definition, to advocate for giving politicians more power.

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  13. @NoVA: Have you considered hiring Brent’s band?????

    🙂

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  14. Imagine this if you can: the country has been the victim of cyber attacks on multiple occasions, with the federal government being the most frequent target. The 21st century will be the age of cyber terrorism. The world has changed.

    Yet the best candidate the Dems can field is a 70-year old hippy in a pantsuit whose latest defense of her latest scandal is that she isn’t tech savvy enough to understand how email works. Doesn’t that just make you want to run right out and support her?

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  15. It is ludicrous to think that DOD, OPM have all been hacked and a server in Chappaqua was not.

    Imagine if someone who doesn’t care about politics got it. They could make a fortune if there is real dirt on it.

    Would make a killer movie or book, at least…

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  16. Interesting story in The Atlantic about auditioning as and hiring stand-up comedians on college campuses today.

    The students’ determination to avoid booking any acts that might conceivably hurt the feelings of a classmate was in its way quite admirable. They seemed wholly animated by kindness and by an open-mindedness to the many varieties of the human experience. But the flip side of this sensitivity is the savagery with which reputations and even academic careers can be destroyed by a single comment—perhaps thoughtless, perhaps misinterpreted, perhaps (God help you) intended as a joke—that violates the values of the herd.

    When you talk with college students outside of formal settings, many reveal nuanced opinions on the issues that NACA was so anxious to police. But almost all of them have internalized the code that you don’t laugh at politically incorrect statements; you complain about them. In part, this is because they are the inheritors of three decades of identity politics, which have come to be a central driver of attitudes on college campuses. But there’s more to it than that. These kids aren’t dummies; they look around their colleges and see that there are huge incentives to join the ideological bandwagon and harsh penalties for questioning the platform’s core ideas.

    The whole piece is worth the read, but I would argue that the attitudes of students on campus today are more a product of helicopter parenting and the “everybody gets a prize!” atmosphere today than political correctness.

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    • re: campus comics. In 1959 I took my date to a nearby college to see Redd Foxx. I don’t think he would get campus tours today based on that Atlantic article. We were 16 YO HS students and we thought he was f—k–g hilarious.

      On another note, I listened on XM radio and I thought Christie was as far ahead of the field on command and delivery as Fiorina was ahead of hers earlier in the afternoon.

      There was nothing to distinguish Rubio from the pack from a purely aural perspective and I suspect the fact that he is the prettiest and most youthful greatly increases his appeal on TV. He has the natural advantage against HRC unless there are radio debates, only, and he knows it – his most telling comment was to the effect that HRC had more experience than any of them but the race would have to be fought on “new” grounds.

      Y’all know that listeners thought RMN beat JFK while viewers thought JFK beat RMN, right?

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      • I expect Fiorina to make it to the main stage for the rest of the R debates. She will do well. Could she shake the field enough to make the ticket?

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  17. I was at UW Madison in the mid 80s, where the speech code was born… Never thought this was where it would end up…

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  18. It can only end one way.

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  19. Wonder how the Clinton Foundation accounted for their check to #BlackLivesMatter…

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  20. Trump gets no love on right wing Twitter.

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  21. You know what is funny? If an establishment Republican said half the shit Trump has said they would be pilloried in the MSM. But when Trump says it? Crickets…

    Think the fix is in.

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    • @Brent:

      The press has been scathing toward Trump since his McCain slander. So I took your comment as ironic. Problem, of course, is that for Trump all publicity is good publicity, and the press keeps feeding the troll.

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  22. @ScottC: ” is, pretty much by definition, to advocate for giving politicians more power.”

    Not Republican politicians!

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  23. @Brent: “Wonder how the Clinton Foundation accounted for their check to #BlackLivesMatter…”

    I know, right? First thing I thought. Someone somewhere is working on behalf of Hillary there.

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  24. Fiorina has to be running for VP, and it’s certainly not inconceivable that she’ll end up with the VP slot.

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