Morning Report – Wells cutting staff in mortgage unit 8/22/2013

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1650.4 13.7 0.82%
Eurostoxx Index 2837.6 1.8 0.06%
Oil (WTI) 104.5 -062 -0.61%
LIBOR 0.264 0.001 0.34%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.26 0.076 0.09%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.84% 0.03%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 102.9 -0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 102 -0.7
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.59

Markets are higher this morning after a few economic numbers suggested strength in the economy. Bonds and MBS are down
Initial Jobless Claims came in at 336k, while the FHFA home price index rose .7% last month. A preliminary ISM number showed manufacturing gaining strength.
The minutes from the FOMC meeting didn’t give any new insights into the Fed’s thinking about tapering. Most of the research pieces seem to think that the Fed is going to start tapering at the September meeting. They are sticking to their story that the economy will start picking up steam in the second half.
As the refi boom ends, banks are cutting workers in the mortgage department. Wells just announced it is laying off 20% of its mortgage production staff, or about 2300 workers. Wells’ business was 70% refis in 1H and it has dropped to 50%.
The Ellie Mae Origination Report shows that purchases are now a bigger percentage of originations than refis. It also looks like credit is beginning to thaw, as the average FICO score for closed loan dropped from 742 to 737 in July. 75% of closed loans had average FICOs above 700 vs 83% a year ago.
MR will be taking a hiatus for the next week as I will be on vacation.

This day in history – August 22

1989 – 42-year old Nolan Ryan, playing for the Texas Rangers, strikes out Rickey Henderson on a 96-MPH fastball, becoming the first pitcher in Major League Baseball history to strike out 5,000 batters. Ryan, probably the greatest pitcher ever to live, finishes his Hall of Fame career with 5,714 strikeout, 7 no-hitters, and 12 one hitters. Unparalleled.

1971 – Monty Python’s Flying Circus hits the big screen in the US, as And Now For Something Completely Different, the film version of their British sketch comedy show, debuts in the US. The film sees limited success in its initial release, but it performs well upon its re-release in 1974, after PBS begins broadcasting the original TV series. (Best MP film: Life of Brian….discuss.) Below, a sketch that would seem appropriate for ATiM.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQFKtI6gn9Y

1864 – The Geneva Convention of 1864, which calls for nonpartisan care of the sick and wounded in war, is adopted by 12 nations meeting in Geneva, Switzerland. In honor of Jean-Henri Dunant, Swiss humanitarian and strong advocate of the proposal, a red cross on a white background, the inverse of the Swiss flag, is chosen as the emblem to mark medical supplies and personnel during war. The International Red Cross was founded.

1851 – The yacht America of the New York Yacht Club wins the Hundred Guinea Cup by defeating 14 British ships in a regatta around the Isle of Wight. The race was a blowout, with America beating second place by a full 22 minutes. In 1857 the owners of the yacht deed the Cup, which will come to be known as the America’s Cup, to the New York Yacht Club on the condition that the Cup be put up as a prize in a regular international racing competition. The first America’s Cup race,takes place in 1870 and continues to this day, making it the world’s oldest and longest running sporting competition. (Question: what makes a sport a sport, and does boat racing actually qualify?)

Copied Without Permission from the WSJ

By
JEFFREY A. SINGER

Every so often I have an extraordinary and surprising experience with a patient—the kind that makes us both say, “Wow, we’ve learned something from this.” One such moment occurred recently.

A gentleman in his early 60s came in with a rather routine hernia in his lower abdomen, one that is easily repaired with a simple outpatient surgical procedure. We scheduled the surgery at a nearby hospital.

My patient is self-employed and owns a low-cost “indemnity” type of health insurance policy. It has no provider-network requirements or preferred-hospital requirements. The patient can go anywhere. The policy pays up to a fixed amount for doctor and hospital bills based upon the diagnosis. This affordable health-insurance policy made a lot of sense to this man, based on his health and financial situation.

When the man arrived at the hospital for surgery, the admitting clerk reviewed the terms of his policy and estimated the amount of his bill that would be paid by insurance. She asked him to pay his estimated portion in advance. (More hospitals are doing that now because too often patients don’t pay their portions of the bills after insurance has paid.)

The insurance policy, the clerk said, would pay up to $2,500 for the surgeon—more than enough—and up to $2,500 for the hospital’s charges for the operating room, nursing, recovery room, etc. The estimated hospital charge was $23,000. She asked him to pay roughly $20,000 upfront to cover the estimated balance. (emphasis provided)

My patient was stunned. I received a call from the admitting clerk informing me that he wanted to cancel the surgery, and explaining why. After speaking to the man alone and learning the nature of his insurance policy, I realized I was not bound by any “preferred provider” contractual arrangements and knew we had a solution.

I explained that just because he had health insurance didn’t mean he had to use it in every situation. After all, when people have a minor fender-bender, they often settle it privately rather than file an insurance claim. Because of the nature of this man’s policy, he could do the same thing for his medical procedure. However, had I been bound by a preferred-provider contract or by Medicare, I wouldn’t have been able to enlighten him.

Hospitals and other providers make their “list” prices as high as possible when negotiating contracts with health plans and Medicare regulators. No one is ever expected to pay the list price. Anybody who has seen an “Explanation of Benefits” statement from a health plan will note a very high charge from the provider, and an “adjusted charge” based upon the contracted fee schedule, which usually leaves the patient with little or nothing in out-of-pocket expenses. The only people routinely faced with list prices are those few people who have insurance like my patient’s—that doesn’t include a pre-negotiated fee schedule with contracted providers—or those who have no insurance.

Most people are unaware that if they don’t use insurance, they can negotiate upfront cash prices with hospitals and providers substantially below the “list” price. Doctors are happy to do this. We get paid promptly, without paying office staff to wade through the insurance-payment morass.

So we canceled the surgery and started the scheduling process all over again, this time classifying my patient as a “self-pay” (or uninsured) patient. I quoted him a reasonable upfront cash price, as did the anesthesiologist. We contacted a different hospital and they quoted him a reasonable upfront cash price for the outpatient surgical/nursing services. He underwent his operation the very next day, with a total bill of just a little over $3,000, including doctor and hospital fees. He ended up saving $17,000 by not using insurance. (emphasis provided)

This process taught us a few things. First, most people these days don’t have health “insurance.” They have prepaid health plans. They pay premiums to take advantage of a pre-negotiated fee schedule arranged for and administered by a third party. My patient, on the other hand, had insurance.

Second, even with the markdown for upfront “cash-pay” patients, none of the providers was losing money on my patient. Otherwise they wouldn’t have agreed to the prices. With the third-party payer taken out of the picture, we got a better idea of the market prices for the services. It is the third-party payment system that interferes with true price competition, so “market clearing prices” can’t develop.

Take the examples of Lasik eye surgery or cosmetic surgery. These services are not covered by insurance. Providers compete on the basis of quality, outcomes and price. And prices have continually dropped as quality and services have improved—unlike the rest of health care.

When my patient returned for his post-op visit we discussed the experience. It was clear to both of us that the only way to make health care more affordable is to diminish the role of third-party payers. Let consumers and providers interact through market forces to drive down prices and drive up quality, like we do when we buy groceries, clothing, cars, computers, etc. Drop the focus on prepaid health plans and return to the days of real health insurance—that covers major, unforeseen events, leaving the everyday expenses to the consumer—just like auto and homeowners’ insurance.

Sadly, we are heading in the exact opposite direction. ObamaCare expands the role of the third party and practically eliminates the role—and the say—of the patient in the delivery of health care. Will they ever learn?

Dr. Singer practices general surgery in Phoenix, Ariz., and is an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute.

A version of this article appeared August 22, 2013, on page A15 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: The Man Who Was Treated for $17,000 Less.

This day in history – August 21

1987Dirty Dancing featuring Jennifer Grey and Patrick Swayze, opens in theaters. A coming of age story set in a 1963 summer resort in the Catskill Mountains of New York and involving young love, abortion, and Ayn Rand, this movie is so bad it is a must-watch classic. With dialogue like “Nobody puts baby in the corner!”, who can resist?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28A9Jgo92GQ

1959 – Hawaii officially becomes the 50th, and to date the last, state to join the union. Established as a US protectorate in 1894, Hawaii is officially annexed in 1898 and becomes a formal US territory in 1900. (I have no idea what the distinction is between being annexed and being a formal US territory.) The Japanese attack on the Hawaiian naval base at Pearl Harbor in 1941 firmly establishes Hawaii in the national psyche, and 18 years later it becomes a full fledged member state. Best of the Hawaiian Islands? Maui, without a doubt.

1940 – In a stirring speech to the House of Commons in the midst of the Battle of Britain, the greatest political leader in the history of war, Winston Churchill praises the men of the Royal Air Force for their efforts against the Luftwaffe by exclaiming the now famous line “Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few.” Eventually members of the RAF will come to be known simply as “The Few”. I’m pretty sure that on the top 10 list of history’s great wartime leaders, Winston Churchill holds the top 5 positions.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0y60xvkJ8ko

1858 – The first of seven debates between Senate candidates Abraham Lincoln and Stephen Douglas takes place in Ottowa, Illinois. The debates center on the issue of slavery, and are perhaps the most well-known political debates in the history of the US. The debates are a preview of the very issue that would be the focus of the presidential election 2 years later, in which both Lincoln and Douglas would again be opposing candidates, along with a third, John C. Breckinridge. Although Douglas would win the Senate election (actually, his fellow Democrats would win the Illinois house of representatives, which then appointed him Senator), Lincoln would get his revenge by winning the 1860 presidential election, leading directly to Southern secession and the Civil War.
lincoln douglas

Morning Report – a tale of two market segments 8/21/13

Vital Statistics:

 

 

Last

Change

Percent

S&P Futures 

1647.4

-4.7

-0.12%

Eurostoxx Index

2837.6

1.8

0.06%

Oil (WTI)

104.5

-062

-0.61%

LIBOR

0.264

0.001

0.34%

US Dollar Index (DXY)

81.26

0.076

0.09%

10 Year Govt Bond Yield

2.84%

0.03%

 

Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA

103.03

-0.6

 

Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA

102.9

-0.3

 

RPX Composite Real Estate Index

200.7

-0.2

 

BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

4.56

 

Fed Minutes Day. The Minutes of the last FOMC meeting will be released at 2:00 pm EST, and that has the potential to move the bond markets. At the moment, bonds and MBS are down. 
 
Given the volatility of the bond market lately, getting it wrong means getting it VERY wrong. Probably not a good environment to roll the dice and float.
 
Mortgage applications fell 4.6% last week, which is not s surprise given the back-up in rates. The purchase index was actually up a percent, while the refi index (predictably) hit new lows. Refis as a percent fell to 61.5% of total number of loans.
 
Existing Home sales spiked to 5.39 million in July, a 6.5% increase month-over-month, and 17.2% higher than a year ago. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun says that changes in affordability are beginning to affect the market. As rates rise, the pool of eligible buyers decreases. This is apparent at the low end of the market and especially with the first time homebuyer struggling with student loan debt and unable to meet the DTI requirements.
 
Homebuilder Toll Brothers reported third quarter earnings that missed analyst estimates, but their outlook was good. Toll is in the McMansion business, so it isn’t necessarily representative of the homebuilding market as a whole. In fact, some of the builders at the lower price points – particularly Pulte and Beazer – reported a decrease in orders. They noted an increase in sales volume and pricing power, which is unsurprising since we have underbuilt for the past 10 years. 
 
Punch line: the haves vs the have nots.  If you are a twenty-something looking for a starter home, you are fighting professional cash-only investors for inventory, struggling to meet DTI requirements and are getting sticker shock from high interest rates. However, the luxury end of the market is doing quite well, as Toll’s numbers can attest.

True Confessions

Just kidding.  I did want to talk about a couple of things though.  Did any of you read this piece last night linked from the PL.  It got me thinking about what exactly I’m doing here and I do have one tiny confession to make.  While I was gone and without access to the internet for the majority of the time I alternated between enjoying it and feeling completely out of touch.  When I took time off last year and earlier this year, I was still reading, just not commenting.  When I went into Starbucks early on Saturday armed with my kindle I was really anxious to touch base with everyone.  Two things are bugging me about that.  One, I actually called my husband and dictated what I wanted to tell everyone and had him post it because it’s such a bitch to type on a kindle, and two, I keep realizing, after the fact, that I’m divulging too much personal information.

I don’t know why I do that.  How sad is it that I have virtual friends, whom I will never meet, of the kind that I even enlist my husband to help me keep in touch and tell all of you more than you really wanted to know?  Anyway, long story short, I’m not going to share so much in the future.  I’ll try to stick to the facts of the post or interesting tidbits, political or otherwise, that are in the news.  I’m a little over whelmed with how complicated my life just got on several fronts so if I get a little edgy as we move forward, that’s my excuse, so just forgive me in advance, okay?

It looks like I’m going to be really busy in the foreseeable future so I’ll be here when I can or when it looks like there’s something of interest to discuss.

Btw, I deleted my comments from the past few days because I didn’t actually write them……………………….there’s your confession………………lol

Favor?  If I start yacking about my sister, my kids, swimming, the beach, my past or my niece, please tap me on the shoulder and tell me to knock it off okay?

This day in history – August 20

1998 – The Canadian Supremes rule that Quebec cannot unilaterally secede from the Federation. And Canada isn’t even a Union!

1968 – As Czechoslovakian protests against the Soviet Union mount during the course of what will come to be known as Prague Spring, 200,000 Soviet troops cross the border into Czechoslovakia and head to the capitolto crush the protests and reassert Soviet control. Within two days the entire nation is occupied, and further protests are violently put down. The Soviet intervention puts a new chill into US-Soviet relations as President Johnson cancels his planned trip to the USSR.

1940 – Leon Trotsky is attacked in his Mexico City home-in-exile by ice axe weilding Ramon Mercader, a Spanish communist. He will die the next day from his wounds. A founding member of the Russian Revolution, Trotsky had lost the power struggle to succeed Lenin as the head of the Soviet Union upon Lenin’s death. He became the object of Stalin’s persecution, including being expelled from the Soviet Union, which culminated several assassination attempts, the last of which finally proved successful.

1858 – Charles Darwin published the theory of evolution through natural selection in The Journal of the Proceedings of the Linnean Society of London. This became one of the two cornerstones of modern biology and denying it remains a popular pastime.

1000 – This is National Day in Hungary. Supposedly King Stephen founded the state in 1000. I (MIA) have visited St. Stephen’s Cathedral in Vienna but I did not know this was the same Stephen. Stephen was declared a saint in 1087 on this day, as well.

Morning Report – Trying to kickstart Dodd Frank 8/20/13

Vital Statistics:

 

 

 

Last

Change

Percent

S&P Futures 

1652.4

7.7

0.32%

Eurostoxx Index

2837.6

1.8

0.06%

Oil (WTI)

108.8

-0.2

-0.21%

LIBOR

0.264

0.001

0.34%

US Dollar Index (DXY)

81.26

0.076

0.09%

10 Year Govt Bond Yield

2.82%

0.03%

 

Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA

103.03

-0.6

 

Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA

102.9

-0.3

 

RPX Composite Real Estate Index

200.7

-0.2

 

BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

4.59

 

Markets are higher this morning after some good retail earnings and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose slightly to -.15. Bonds and MBS are rallying.
 
President Obama met with various regulators regarding Dodd-Frank yesterday, and stressed the need to prevent another crisis from happening, and also to make sure the housing finance system “that better serves middle class families” (whatever that means). Sounds like more of the same “Slug the lenders harder – maybe they’ll finally take some risk.” thought process going on.
 
Another good data point on the housing recovery – good earnings from the Despot. Comps up 11.4%, which is pretty impressive.
 
Cool real estate price “heat map” courtesy of the NY Fed.  The West is the Best. 
 
Unemployment is rising in more than half the states and fewer states are adding jobs. The labor market may be losing some steam

Morning Report – mortgage business running at 2.5 million existing home sales level 8/19/13

Vital Statistics:

 

 

Last

Change

Percent

S&P Futures 

1653.4

2.7

0.12%

Eurostoxx Index

2837.6

1.8

0.06%

Oil (WTI)

107.1

0.2

0.21%

LIBOR

0.264

0.001

0.34%

US Dollar Index (DXY)

81.26

0.076

0.09%

10 Year Govt Bond Yield

2.86%

0.03%

 

Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA

103.03

-0.6

 

Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA

102.9

-0.3

 

RPX Composite Real Estate Index

200.7

-0.2

 

BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

4.52

   

 

Markets are stronger after yesterday’s bloodbath, although bonds are still having a tough go of it. There is no economic data this morning

 

This week looks to be pretty dull with respect to market-moving economic data, with the exception of the FOMC report this Wednesday. Market participants will be parsing the minutes closely to answer the “September or December” question. (Will the Fed start reducing QE purchases at the September FOMC meeting or the December FOMC meeting?) 

 

Interesting factoid: according to a Goldman Sachs survey, more than half of the homes sold in the United States last year, and so far this year, are all-cash transactions. When you consider the fact that existing home sales are running at around a 5 million / year rate and over half these sales are all cash, it shows that the mortgage business still has a lot of room to rebound. Pre-bubble, existing home sales were about 5 – 6 million units / year and peaked over 7 million at the height of the bubble. This says that the mortgage business is still in highly depressed territory. 

 

The Inspector General of FHFA is saying that the super-profitable Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are ignoring billions in potential losses on overdue loans and they adopt a new accounting system. Of course, the GSEs are effectively nationalized and we all know government accounting does not comport with GAAP accounting. They are supposed to start writing down loans when they go 180 days delinquent. They aren’t.

 

President Obama is scheduled to meet with Ben Bernanke and other financial regulators to discuss the progress in implementing Dodd-Frank. So far, pretty much the CFPB is up and running and that is about it. Major issues remain unresolved as Dodd-Frank was drafted without any input from the financial industry. 

This day in history – August 19

It’s going to be a brief one today….sorry.

1953 – The Iranian military, with the assistance of the CIA, overthrows Premier Mosaddeq and reinstates the Shah of Iran. The Shah, an ally of the US throughout the Cold War, will remain in power until the 1979 Iranian revolution. The 1953 coup and the US relationship with the Shah will be a primary motivating factor in the 1979 hostage crisis, when Iranian “students” storm the US embassy in Tehran and hold 52 Americans hostage for 444 days.

1951 – Eddie Gaedel, at 3 foot 7 inches the smallest person ever to “play” in a MLB game, makes his first and only career plate appearance for the St Louis Browns, taking a walk on 4 straight pitches and promptly being taken out for a pinch runner. Gaedel’s appearance was orchestrated by showman and owner Bill Veeck, who was famous for his unique efforts at trying to increase fan attendance.
gaedel

1942 – Amidst mounting pressure from Stalin to open a second front in the war, the Allies stage a raid on the French town of Dieppe, the first Allied attempt to attack German positions in mainland Europe. The raid, beset by all kinds of logistical and tactical problems, is a complete debacle, being turned back a mere 5 hours after it had begun, with over 60% of the troops being casualties or captured. Nevertheless, the lessons learned are held out by Churchill as being crucial to the later success of the invasion of Normandy on D-Day.

1812 – A naval battle between the USS Constitution and the Guerrière, a British frigate, breaks out off the coast of Nova Scotia. Surprisingly the Constitution gets the best of the 20-minute battle, inflicting serious damage while suffering very little itself. Witnesses to the battle later claim that the British cannon shots simply bounced off the sides of the Constitution, resulting in the eventually legendary ship being nicknamed “Old Ironsides”.