A Proposal to Shake Things Up

Posted on August 30, 2013 by markinaustin

It is time to revisit the Reapportionment Act of 1929.  That law set the number of Representatives at 435 but did not restate the 1911 provision that districts be contiguous, compact, and equally populated.  The Supreme Court eventually restored “equally populated” in the one-man one vote decisions which were key civil rights cases of the early 1960s, spearheaded by Alabama Attorney General Richmond Flowers.  We have never come back to “contiguous (and) compact.”

 
435 was set as the number because of the size of the chamber.  I suggest that limitation is a mere logistical issue that can be overcome in many ways that need not be addressed here.

 
Take the least populated state in each decennial census and give it one Rep.  Then give other states multiples rounded up so that 1.51 WY in 2010 equals 2.  Expand the House as necessary.

 
Done for 2010, the total membership of the HoR would now be 544.  CA would have 66.  TX would have 44.  NY would have 34.  FL would have 33.  Make the mandate “contiguous and compact, leaving entire municipalities and entire counties within a single district wherever possible.”

 
Shake things up a bit.  We might get Congress to actually support it because it makes for more Congressmen, each with somewhat more manageable districts for campaign purposes.  Of course, it would effectively end the gerrymander.

Filed under: California, Congress, government dissatisfaction, TEXAS | 7 Comments »

Morning Report – House prices still in historical value range 8/30/13

Posted on August 30, 2013 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1637.3 0.6 0.04%
Eurostoxx Index 2737.1 -21.3 -0.77%
Oil (WTI) 107.9 -0.9 -0.83%
LIBOR 0.26 -0.002 -0.65%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82 0.055 0.07%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.76% 0.00%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.1 0.3
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.3 0.0
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.47
Markets are flat after disappointing income and spending data. Bonds and MBS are more or less flat. Expect a relatively dull day, trading wise as most of the Street will be on the L.I.E. by noon.
The BEA released July personal income and spending data this morning and it was below expectations. Both rose .1%, below expectations and below June data. Since consumption is 70% of the US economy, these numbers suggest that yesterday’s 2.5% GDP estimate for 2Q was more of a fluke than a change in trend.
Cash purchases accounted for 40% of all sales as volume increased to an estimated 5.5 million pace in July, according to RealtyTrac. The national median sales price was $174,500 in July, up 4% from June and up 6% from a year ago. Median income is estimated to be at $52,100 as of the end of June, putting the median house price to median income ratio at 3.35. Pre-bubble, this ratio tended to oscillate in a range of 3.15 – 3.35, before peaking at 4.48 during the bubble. Even with the increase in house prices over the past year, housing still remains fairly valued compared to historical norms and affordability is quite high due our (still) quite low interest rates.

Budget talks between the WH and Republicans seem to be going nowhere. The President wants to replace the sequester with more taxes, which is a non-starter for Republicans. The two sides seem far apart, but how much of this is just posturing for the various bases. If Republicans dig in their heels on de-funding obamacare and Obama digs in his heels for more taxes, then we could have a problem.

Dr. Cowbell weighs in on the recent QE-withdrawal driven slump in the emerging markets. Unsurprisingly, he concludes that the problem is deregulation, which is surprising given that developed markets all over the world tightened regulation over the financial system half a decade ago. He goes on to discuss how the Asian Tigers rebounded so quickly from the crisis, which he attributes to a drop in their currencies. What is the difference between Japan’s recovery from a deflated asset bubble and, say, Indonesia’s? Hint: One followed his Keynsian prescription to the letter and the other had austerity imposed on it by the IMF.

Filed under: Morning Report | 19 Comments »