This day in history – August 21

Posted on August 21, 2013 by ScottC

1987 – Dirty Dancing featuring Jennifer Grey and Patrick Swayze, opens in theaters. A coming of age story set in a 1963 summer resort in the Catskill Mountains of New York and involving young love, abortion, and Ayn Rand, this movie is so bad it is a must-watch classic. With dialogue like “Nobody puts baby in the corner!”, who can resist?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28A9Jgo92GQ

1959 – Hawaii officially becomes the 50th, and to date the last, state to join the union. Established as a US protectorate in 1894, Hawaii is officially annexed in 1898 and becomes a formal US territory in 1900. (I have no idea what the distinction is between being annexed and being a formal US territory.) The Japanese attack on the Hawaiian naval base at Pearl Harbor in 1941 firmly establishes Hawaii in the national psyche, and 18 years later it becomes a full fledged member state. Best of the Hawaiian Islands? Maui, without a doubt.

1940 – In a stirring speech to the House of Commons in the midst of the Battle of Britain, the greatest political leader in the history of war, Winston Churchill praises the men of the Royal Air Force for their efforts against the Luftwaffe by exclaiming the now famous line “Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few.” Eventually members of the RAF will come to be known simply as “The Few”. I’m pretty sure that on the top 10 list of history’s great wartime leaders, Winston Churchill holds the top 5 positions.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0y60xvkJ8ko

1858 – The first of seven debates between Senate candidates Abraham Lincoln and Stephen Douglas takes place in Ottowa, Illinois. The debates center on the issue of slavery, and are perhaps the most well-known political debates in the history of the US. The debates are a preview of the very issue that would be the focus of the presidential election 2 years later, in which both Lincoln and Douglas would again be opposing candidates, along with a third, John C. Breckinridge. Although Douglas would win the Senate election (actually, his fellow Democrats would win the Illinois house of representatives, which then appointed him Senator), Lincoln would get his revenge by winning the 1860 presidential election, leading directly to Southern secession and the Civil War.
lincoln douglas

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Morning Report – a tale of two market segments 8/21/13

Posted on August 21, 2013 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

 

 

Last

Change

Percent

S&P Futures 

1647.4

-4.7

-0.12%

Eurostoxx Index

2837.6

1.8

0.06%

Oil (WTI)

104.5

-062

-0.61%

LIBOR

0.264

0.001

0.34%

US Dollar Index (DXY)

81.26

0.076

0.09%

10 Year Govt Bond Yield

2.84%

0.03%

  

Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA

103.03

-0.6

  

Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA

102.9

-0.3

  

RPX Composite Real Estate Index

200.7

-0.2

  

BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

4.56

 

Fed Minutes Day. The Minutes of the last FOMC meeting will be released at 2:00 pm EST, and that has the potential to move the bond markets. At the moment, bonds and MBS are down. 
 
Given the volatility of the bond market lately, getting it wrong means getting it VERY wrong. Probably not a good environment to roll the dice and float.
 
Mortgage applications fell 4.6% last week, which is not s surprise given the back-up in rates. The purchase index was actually up a percent, while the refi index (predictably) hit new lows. Refis as a percent fell to 61.5% of total number of loans.
 
Existing Home sales spiked to 5.39 million in July, a 6.5% increase month-over-month, and 17.2% higher than a year ago. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun says that changes in affordability are beginning to affect the market. As rates rise, the pool of eligible buyers decreases. This is apparent at the low end of the market and especially with the first time homebuyer struggling with student loan debt and unable to meet the DTI requirements.
 
Homebuilder Toll Brothers reported third quarter earnings that missed analyst estimates, but their outlook was good. Toll is in the McMansion business, so it isn’t necessarily representative of the homebuilding market as a whole. In fact, some of the builders at the lower price points – particularly Pulte and Beazer – reported a decrease in orders. They noted an increase in sales volume and pricing power, which is unsurprising since we have underbuilt for the past 10 years. 
 
Punch line: the haves vs the have nots.  If you are a twenty-something looking for a starter home, you are fighting professional cash-only investors for inventory, struggling to meet DTI requirements and are getting sticker shock from high interest rates. However, the luxury end of the market is doing quite well, as Toll’s numbers can attest.

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True Confessions

Posted on August 21, 2013 by lmsinca

Just kidding.  I did want to talk about a couple of things though.  Did any of you read this piece last night linked from the PL.  It got me thinking about what exactly I’m doing here and I do have one tiny confession to make.  While I was gone and without access to the internet for the majority of the time I alternated between enjoying it and feeling completely out of touch.  When I took time off last year and earlier this year, I was still reading, just not commenting.  When I went into Starbucks early on Saturday armed with my kindle I was really anxious to touch base with everyone.  Two things are bugging me about that.  One, I actually called my husband and dictated what I wanted to tell everyone and had him post it because it’s such a bitch to type on a kindle, and two, I keep realizing, after the fact, that I’m divulging too much personal information.

I don’t know why I do that.  How sad is it that I have virtual friends, whom I will never meet, of the kind that I even enlist my husband to help me keep in touch and tell all of you more than you really wanted to know?  Anyway, long story short, I’m not going to share so much in the future.  I’ll try to stick to the facts of the post or interesting tidbits, political or otherwise, that are in the news.  I’m a little over whelmed with how complicated my life just got on several fronts so if I get a little edgy as we move forward, that’s my excuse, so just forgive me in advance, okay?

It looks like I’m going to be really busy in the foreseeable future so I’ll be here when I can or when it looks like there’s something of interest to discuss.

Btw, I deleted my comments from the past few days because I didn’t actually write them……………………….there’s your confession………………lol

Favor?  If I start yacking about my sister, my kids, swimming, the beach, my past or my niece, please tap me on the shoulder and tell me to knock it off okay?

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