Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1688.5 | 1.4 | 0.08% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2837.4 | 10.2 | 0.36% |
| Oil (WTI) | 106.3 | 0.2 | 0.20% |
| LIBOR | 0.264 | -0.001 | -0.19% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 81.59 | 0.253 | 0.31% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.68% | 0.06% | |
| Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 104.6 | -0.2 | |
| Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 103.5 | -0.4 | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 200.7 | -0.2 | |
| BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 4.29 |
Markets are slightly better this morning after the NFIB Small Business Survey came in below expectations and a mixed report for retail sales. Bonds and MBS are down.
The National Federation of Independent Business Optimism Index rose to 94.1 from 93.5, just missing the Street estimate of 94.5. Generally speaking it was a glum report, although it was the 4th highest reading since 2008. (The index has averaged 100 in the 35 years prior to to 2008 so that gives you a bit of perspective). 9% of firms added workers while 12% shed workers. 20% reported job openings they could not fill, which is a good sign for the labor markets, I suppose. 19% reported increasing worker comp while 4% reduced it. Capital Expenditures fell. Credit appears not to be a problem. The report notes the bifurcation of the business environment, where the big S&P 500 names are doing great (energy, large manufacturers, agribusiness) due to strong exports and the rest, who are seeing prospects of earnings growth fade.
The advance estimate for retail sales increased .2% month-over-month and increased .4% ex-autos and gasoline. Sales increased 5.4% year over year. Discretionary goods (sporting goods, apparel) seemed to lead the charge while autos were a drag. Given that consumption is 70% of the U.S. economy, we need to see more robust growth here if we want to see a recovery.
Have a borrower who is ineligible for FHA (or doesn’t want to go down that route) but is coming up shy on the down payment? A new equity sharing product from First Rex provides downpayment assistance. They will put down up to half the borrower’s down payment in return for 40% of the house price appreciation. Since it is an equity investment, there are no payments that the borrower must make. FHFA has recommended that the GSEs allow this product as a form of down payment, and SIFMA is considering a proposal to allow loans with subordinate financing product (which is what this is called) to be eligible for good delivery into TBAs. If you have the view that house prices are going nowhere for a while, this may be an interesting product.
Ever wonder why GDP gets revised so much? Remember Q1, which was revised downward from 1.7% to 1.1%. The advance estimate for Q1 GDP was 2.5% in April. By the July, it was 1.1%. What accounts for the revisions? Zach Pandl at Columbia Management discusses all of the economic “sausage making” that goes into GDP estimates and how noisy they are. Which means that when you look at GDP numbers, they might not be giving you a good picture of how the economy is actually doing.
Harry Reid is not onboard with ending Fannie and Fred. From the government’s perspective, F&F are FWB – they are spewing cash, which goes 100% to the government’s coffers, they control them absolutely, but there is still a 20% sliver of outside equity which allows them not to consolidate F&F’s debt on the government balance sheet. When you consider that the taxpayer bears 50% of the credit risk in the U.S. mortgage market, that is significant.
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
Interesting conversation with Mrs. Hockey last night. She was in a management training seminar and the discussion was about tapping into the work habits/goals etc. of your employees based on their generation. Boomers and Millennials, specifically.
she wasn’t impressed, but in looking around the room, she said it was “old white guy boomers and a few women their age, and kids.” a colleague of hers (similar age) asked the presenter, “what about Gen X?” and the presenter dismissed it. “that generation doesn’t matter.”
good to know. also, whatever.
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Had an embarrassing event with the wife yesterday. I was convinced that this song was recorded by Nazareth:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUeuAnMNDhA
And the wife was convinced it was Def Leppard.
Seriously, Def Leppard!
Well, we all know Def Leppard recorded this song:
Not even close, amiright? I was justified in my derision of her (lack of) musical Knowledge, right?
Then, I google up Hard Candy for the coup de grace, and guess what? It’s was fucking Montrose.
Jeez.
Talk about embarrassing.
Oh and, FIRST!
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To the above presenter,
Fuck you very much!
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And not even first!
#Thereisnojustice
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“Fuck you very much!”
that might be my new motto.
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http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/health/older-drinkers-going-to-die-soon-anyway-2013080978236
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Discretionary goods (sporting goods, apparel) seemed to lead the charge while autos were a drag. Given that consumption is 70% of the U.S. economy, we need to see more robust growth here if we want to see a recovery.
Being a small business owner isn’t everything it’s cracked up to be. Luckily we’re in sporting goods and so we’ve always managed to weather the storm, more or less, during down turns. What’s been hard for us is trying to downsize during a down turn……a little trickier than we thought it would be.
And I think consumers are largely still broke. That’s sort of been my point about the middle class. Stagnant wages, loss of equity, lack of mobility all lead to less consumer spending. I’m wondering if the predicted 1/2% loss to GDP from the sequester has also kicked in?
And that equity sharing down payment scheme sounds like another scam to me.
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Nova, my dad drank until about three months before he died at 82. He always said if he couldn’t have his vodka, life wasn’t worth living. There’s this one casino we used to take him to where he liked to sit at the bar and play video poker nursing a vodka on the rocks with a splash of gin. I can’t walk past that bar to this day without seeing him sitting there.
I don’t drink much so I’ll probably be one of those cranky old 90 year olds everyone wishes would just mosey on outta here.
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“And that equity sharing down payment scheme sounds like another scam to me.”
Well, it is expensive if you think prices are going to rocket. However, they would need to see 25% price appreciation to break even.
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i’m half convinced old drinkers stick around b/c they’ve pickled themselves.
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Um, this could be bad if true.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2390642/400-surface-air-missiles-STOLEN-Libya-Benghazi-attack-says-whistle-blowers-attorney.html#ixzz2bpz9yuX0
Thanks Hillary !
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I can’t decide if it’s sad or funny they’re just noticing this now.
http://m.stltoday.com/news/national/low-premium-high-deductible-health-plans-are-endangered-by-affordable/article_39a6679a-0f01-5351-94cc-6f17549d81ad.html?mobile_touch=true
They do meet the Senate’s definition of Journalist so I guess I’m the ignant one.
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“Troll McWingnut or George, whichever, on August 13, 2013 at 8:07 am said:
To the above presenter,
Fuck you very much!”
Yes, but you need to consider that the reason you are angry is that the presenter may in fact be right.
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Oh, from the governments perspective, I completely agree.
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“Sandwiched between 80 million baby boomers and 78 million millennials, Generation X — roughly defined as anyone born between 1965 and 1980 — has just 46 million members,
Read more: http://www.time.com/time/arts/article/0,8599,1731528,00.html#ixzz2brfDOLnA
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The Few, the Proud.
The good thing about that is perhaps we won’t be so conceited as to believe that the events we happened to live through were the most important in US and world history, and that everything we’ve experienced (i.e. the music that was playing while we were in high school) was the best ever.
(except for the original 1977 cut of Star Wars, that really is the best movie of all time.)
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jnc:
The good thing about that is perhaps we won’t be so conceited as to believe that the events we happened to live through were the most important in US and world history, and that everything we’ve experienced (i.e. the music that was playing while we were in high school) was the best ever.
You mean, in other words, perhaps we’ll be different than the ’60s generation.
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you mean the cut without “a new hope” … hard to find. or at least it used to be.
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Fat chance, we’re always the hero of our own story.
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Poor Babies
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Will this RACISM never end?
http://m.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2534201.
It’s like slavery is Constitutional again!
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exactly lms. particularly once the boomers retire.
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Hah, nova. Most of us can’t afford to retire. We’ll take our SS and work at Home Depot or WalMart thank-you very much. We feel lucky compared to some of our friends but we’re still working too……………….hahaha
I just changed our answering service to say we’re closing at 1:00 on Fridays.
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radio news was reporting on that phenomenon. some of it positive — “second fun career” type thing. others not.
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But they weren’t truth tellers! Jesus, does he believe the bullshit he’s writing?
Within this cacophony, we’ve lost trusted arbiters of truth — the Edward Murrows and Walter Cronkites who could explain what was happening in ways most Americans found convincing.
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/3745493
What he’s saying is Remember When We Told You What To Believe?
My God, these people truly hate us. Can there be any other conclusion? The disingenuous is breathtaking.
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McWing:
But they weren’t truth tellers!
Damn straight. It is like longing for the halcyon days when politicians were trustworthy and honest….like JFK and FDR. There is a difference between being trusted and being trustworthy.
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You guys are just mad you didn’t get to cash in on all that “free love”. And everyone knows the music was fab even if drugs killed 1/4 of the best artists.
Don’t worry, we’ll be gone eventually and then everyone will look at you like you’re too old to be alive still………….it’s really fun, trust me.
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lms:
You guys are just mad you didn’t get to cash in on all that “free love”.
Well, there is that, too.
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“free love.”
I was such an idiot in college. I didn’t screw around b/c the girl I liked was dating someone else. at a different school. hundreds of miles away. wouldn’t have been the right thing to do. stupid honorable upbringing.
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I’ll let Mark tell you all about it. 😉
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And then there are people my age–I call us the “Ghosties”. Too young to feel like Boomers and too old to be considered Gen X.
The redheaded stepchildren of generational wars. . .
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Meanwhile in Maryland, the Attorney General decides that the only way to stop the Lt. Governor’s juggernaut to the Democratic nomination is to play the reverse racism card early and often.
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That just means you’re unique Michi.
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BTW, the much vaunted college hook-up culture is a myth. It seems college kids aren’t getting any more action now than they did a generation ago. They just think everybody else is.
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That just means you’re unique Michi.
I’ll take that! 🙂
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And then there are people my age–I call us the “Ghosties”.
I was born in 1964 and I call my cohort the Tail Boomers because we were on the downside of the bulge. I developed an entire taxonomy of boomers.
http://livebythefoma.blogspot.com/2008/11/my-my-my-generation.html
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“Tail Boomers”–I like it! And you pretty much nailed the definition.
Also and too, Gansler sounds like a prince of a guy.
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Wow.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2013/08/13/yet-another-white-house-obamacare-delay-out-of-pocket-caps-waived-until-2015/
Purely political.
Cue the civil liberties crowd.
Just kidding, they’ll give it a yawn.
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Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics.
http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/04/equal-pay-day-for-young-single-men-to-recognize-the-gender-pay-gap-in-favor-of-young-single-childless-women/#mbl
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Troll,
That article is datelined today but the lead sentence reads:
Is it such a slow newsday in the right wing blogosphere that they have to refute four month old agitprop? Or is the column just a summer re-run?
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yello:
That article is datelined today
No, it is datelined April 9. I think you are looking simply at today’s date on the blog. Look under the headline, and to the right of the author’s name…April 9. Also, all of the comments are dated back in April too, so obviously the post isn’t new.
But yes, you are correct…the claim it is refuting is little more than agitprop.
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No, it is datelined April 9. I think you are looking simply at today’s date on the blog.
So what’s the news peg to repost it today? I’m confused.
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yello:
So what’s the news peg to repost it today?
I don’t think it was re-posted today on the AEI site. Today’s date appears on the top of the blog whether you are looking at an old post or a new one. Click on the name of the blog, “Carpe Diem”, and you will get all the posts in order, most recent at the top. You’ll see that the gender gap post is nowhere to be found in August.
I suspect that McWing discovered it today via some other link, and thought it was worth posting here.
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lms:
Given that you just bought a new car, you may be interested in this: there’s never been a better time for average Americans to own, operate a car; the good old days are now.
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Yello, yes.
Do you agree that broads should take a pay cut for fairness?
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Mysogeny?
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Do you agree that broads should take a pay cut for fairness?
No. These poor underpaid men should demand raises if some chick is getting paid more for the same job. Or perhaps these dudes should study more and get better jobs like the dames they are competing against. At the very least, babes could spring for a dinner once in a while.
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At the very least, babes could spring for a dinner once in a while.
Your lips to the broads ears.
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Today’s date appears on the top of the blog whether you are looking at an old post or a new one.
Gotchya. That is really bad web design. At least now I’m less confused.
I suspect that McWing discovered it today via some other link, and thought it was worth posting here.
I appreciate his tireless efforts continuously skimming men’s rights blogs to bring us four-month-old reverse sexism tirades we might have missed.
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yello:
That is really bad web design
Agreed.
I appreciate his tireless efforts continuously skimming men’s rights blogs to bring us four-month-old reverse sexism tirades we might have missed.
Neither AEI nor Carpe Diem could reasonably be called a “men’s rights blog”, but I too appreciate McWing’s tireless efforts at countering feminist/progressive propaganda.
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Neither AEI nor Carpe Diem could reasonably be called a “men’s rights blog”
Well, no. I’m still mildly curious how and why he stumbled across it today of all days apropos of seemingly nothing but the general long-running counter narrative that is ATiM. But I’ll let him speak for himself if he cares to.
I too appreciate McWing’s tireless efforts at countering feminist/progressive propaganda.
I’m sure you do. No sarcasm intended.
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I posted the link because it’s Counter Narrative.
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I appreciate his tireless efforts continuously skimming men’s rights blogs to bring us four-month-old reverse sexism tirades we might have missed.
If I didn’t know better I’d think this is sarcasm.
Luckily I know better.
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there’s never been a better time for average Americans to own, operate a car; the good old days are now.
My car has 110k miles on it and I expect to keep it another 100k at least. This was unthinkable in the days where rolling the speedometer was a rare occasion. Planned obsolescence seems to have been a poor industrial strategy on the part of American automakers. Reliability, longevity, and residual value were selling points they under-appreciated.
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More GOP racism.
http://m.dailykos.com/story/2013/08/13/1230756/-Obama-s-dirty-dishes#
I’m done with these fucking bigots! They’re just dead to me. It’s like being at a clan rally.
Excuse, I have to wash up now.
Edit: Klan
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Our old car is 10 years old with 195 K miles on it. We had to get it smogged this year and knew it would fail because of the catalytic converter which cost about $900 to replace so the timing seemed fortuitous. Unfortunately, they only offered us $1000 on a trade in………….they don’t want it, and since it’s still a great car and probably has another 100K miles left, we decided to go ahead and fix it and keep it for awhile. Now we’re a three car family again. We’ll probably end up selling it privately though. My husband thinks we can get between $3500 and $4000 for it now. Just got it back from our mechanic.
We got the new car with 0% financing and they gave us the rebate as well of $1000 and with our $2500 down payment our payments are only $337/mo for five years. I’ll probably pay it off in about 2 1/2 or 3…………….I hate having car payments.
The process of buying a car just gets easier all the time. We had all the local dealerships competing for our business and the most local gave us the best deal on the car we wanted. We were there less than two hours and drove it home….too easy.
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I was born in 1965, and i always considered myself a Gen-X-er…
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Interesting….
Summers Now Seen as Likely Candidate to Replace Bernanke: Mizuho
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) — Larry Summers now “likely”
candidate to become next Fed chairman because he would support activist fiscal policy, Mizuho chief economist Steven Ricchiuto says in client note.
* Obama wants ally at Fed to increase pressure on Congress to
go along with administration’s policies
* Fed under Summers would probably move to end QE more quickly
than expected
* Under Summers, tapering process would be much shorter and
each reduction would be larger, leading to more disorderly
adjustment in long-term rates
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but I too appreciate McWing’s tireless efforts at countering feminist/progressive propaganda.
Because, God knows, with all of three women here ATiM is such a hotbed of feminist propaganda!
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Because, God knows, with all of three women here ATiM is such a hotbed of feminist propaganda!
Three? Is yello an honorary woman?
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a hotbed of feminist propaganda!
A subject I no longer discuss anyway. Not with McWing or anyone else for that matter. It’s much more entertaining watching the boys carry on about it.
My tongue is scarred from so much biting.
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Is yello an honorary woman?
No, I’m just a Sensitive New Age Guy.
Well, maybe not that sensitive.
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Third woman is Geanie?
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jnc:
Third woman is Geanie?
Yes, of course. My bad.
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Oh my.
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Corked by jnc.
I can vouch for yello’s bona fides; I’ve met his wife.
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Of course, yello lives in MD so technically, having a wife doesn’t prove he’s a guy any more.
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Apparently even having a penis doesn’t prove you are guy anymore.
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I did not know this.
Transgender military members are still forced to serve in secret to this day. But neither Coombs nor Adkins referenced those policies in court.
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/3749973?utm_hp_ref=tw
Is it an unjust policy?
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