Morning Report – Dovish FOMC 8/1/13

Vital Statistics:

 

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1692.9 12.4 0.74%
Eurostoxx Index 2797.4 29.2 1.06%
Oil (WTI) 106.9 1.9 1.82%
LIBOR 0.266 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.06 0.605 0.74%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.63% 0.06%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.3 -0.2  
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.7 -0.3  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2  
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.39    

 

Stock markets are higher after a dovish FOMC statement yesterday and lower than expected initial jobless claims. Bond and MBS are down.
 
The FOMC statement was interpreted as dovish yesterday. There wasn’t any discussion of tapering, as the Fed seemed to go back to its older language that said QE could increase or decrease depending on the data. They are forecasting that the economy will improve through the second half of the year. The only other notable change was that they reaffirmed the risks of dis-inflation, which was enough to get previous dissenter James Bullard back in the fold. 
 
The 10 year had sold off hard on the ADP jobs number and the GDP number, but it rallied hard after the statement. The range was 2.57% to 2.7%. You can see just how big the swing was below:
 

 
The final shoe to drop will be the jobs report on Friday. 
 
The Case-Shiller first quarter report is out. Most of the info is old news, but some is not. CoreLogic is forecasting that prices increase 6.5% year over year over the next 12 months. Over the next 5 years, they expect prices to increase at a 4% per year rate. The usual suspected – Phoenix, Sacramento, etc are leading the charge. Bringing up the rear are Long Island, Hartford, Edison NJ, Kansas City, and Newark. 

27 Responses

  1. Fascinating that gun permits soar in NewTown post massacre. This is very counter narrative and worthy of coverage outside wingnut media, no?

    http://m.us.wsj.com/articles/a/SB10001424127887324170004578638043641827094?mg=reno64-wsj

    If not, how’s come?

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  2. I assume that by ‘Protect Senate Majority’ National Journal means ‘Allow People To Vote’.

    It’s a shame Democrats can’t gerrymander the Senate to protect their majority.

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  3. I heard on WTOP that Zimmercam was pulled over for speeding. It’s insane.

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    • It’s insane.

      Yes. You would think a self-deputized officer of the law like him would have more respect for traffic regulations.

      It was all caught on cop-cam. The trooper didn’t even know it was Zimmerman until George pointed it out. The cop also told him to quit playing with his firearm and put it in the glove compartment. It seems Zim was wearing it while driving.

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      • yello:

        It seems Zim was wearing it while driving.

        According to ABC the gun was in his glove compartment, not on his person, and he alerted the policeman to its presence.

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        • the gun was in his glove compartment, not on his person,

          I may be misremembering the original tabloidish article I saw about it. I defer to the responsible trustworthy news sources like ABC and CNN.

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  4. NoVA,
    I may have linked to this before but I once got detained by the FBI for having the same name as an IRA terrorist.

    Most recently I just got back from a trip to Alaska. My friend had loaned me her cannister of bear spray. We took the train to Fairbanks and were going to fly back to Anchorage. I put the bear spray in my checked suitcase but after I got through security I got called back to the main TSA office because the saw the bear spray while screening the baggage. My suitcase was open because we use TSA locks as required.

    The TSA police officer told me the spray was too large (6.3 oz vs. 4 oz) and too strong (10% vs 2%) to be on a plane, even in the cargo hold. He said he wouldn’t file charges because he admitted the only applicable laws were a little vague. He confiscated it and other TSA agents took photos of me, my drivers license, and my boarding pass. One even tracked me down in the airport bar to get my driver’s license info again. I am sure I am now on a watch list somewhere.

    Back at the airport lounge, a fellow traveler wearing a tee shirt saying ‘When guns are outlawed, I will be an outlaw” overheard me telling the incident to my wife and said that while bear spray is banned, 50 rounds of ammo in the original box are fine and that a good pistol makes a much better bear deterrent than pepper spray.

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  5. yello. i swear, that wasn’t me at the airport.

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  6. just watched the video. to me, that line meant he had declared he was armed, it was in the glove box, and the cop said, great, close the box for the duration of the traffic stop.

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  7. My friend in Alaska tells me of a friend of hers who carries a highway safety flare as a bear deterrent. He claims it’s the most effective one you can carry. The only downside is that you only get to use it once.

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    • yello:

      My friend in Alaska tells me of a friend of hers who carries a highway safety flare as a bear deterrent. He claims it’s the most effective one you can carry.

      I heard that if you go wandering about in Alaska you are supposed to carry pepper spray and wear bells so as not to surprise a bear. I also heard that the best way to spot bear scat is that it smells like pepper and has bells in it.

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  8. there’s an idea. a high capacity flare gun.

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  9. there’s an idea. a high capacity flare gun.

    Kinda llike these?

    Those were at House On The Rock in Spring Green, Wisconsin, perhaps the world’s largest tacky roadside attraction. They also have an amazing collection of dueling pistols.

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  10. I haven’t seen anything other than the headline, but frankly, if the gun was in the glove compartment he shouldn’t have said squat. Zimmerman seems to be grandstanding.

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    • I haven’t Zaprudered the whole video but he seems to pulling a variation of the “Don’t you know who I am?” card. More interesting is why he was in Texas and where was he going? Is there a Galt’s Gulch somewhere around there? Is he going to Arizona to run against Joe Arpaio? Has he become a lonely itinerant vigilante wandering from town to town protecting America from Skittles-wielding teenagers?

      That last question would make an interesting TV show where each week he visits a new city and solve some local problem. Think Route 66, Kung Fu, The Fugitive, or The Incredible Hulk.

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      • Think Route 66, Kung Fu, The Fugitive, or The Incredible Hulk. No.

        JACK REACHER™

        If Tom Cruise can play the 6’5″ 250# Reacher™ at 5’6″ 160# then the 5’8″ 185# should have no problem emulating the roving ex-MP who solves the nation’s problems at every stop.

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        • Zimmerman has to be a lot more than 185# by now. He ate a lot of Skittles awaiting trial.

          I was also thinking ‘BJ And The Bear’, although I’m unclear whether GZ should play the trucker or the chimp. Since he didn’t take the stand in his defense, we have no idea how good his acting ability is.

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      • yello:

        That last question would make an interesting TV show…

        Also interesting would be a hidden camera type show recording the reactions of Zimmerman critics as they encountered young black teenagers in hoodies on a darkened street.

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        • Also interesting would be a hidden camera type show recording the reactions of Zimmerman critics as they encountered young black teenagers in hoodies on a darkened street.

          Excellent idea, but how do you trick these Candid Camera/Punkd subjects to get out of their car and follow the hoodied teenagers with a loaded gun?

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        • yello:

          Excellent idea, but how do you trick these Candid Camera/Punkd subjects to get out of their car and follow the hoodied teenagers with a loaded gun?

          The point of a candid camera show is to see what people do, not get them to do something specific. Jeez.

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  11. “in the glove compartment he shouldn’t have said squat. Zimmerman’

    no .. no. you always declare to law enforcement.

    [edit — it’s actually required in some states]

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  12. Well, I haven’t in the past. . .

    But then, the only time I’ve been stopped in over 17 years (since that’s how long I’ve been in UT) I had everything out and ready for the nice officer when he approached my window. And I got out of the ticket–first time I’ve ever done that!–by telling the truth. Yes, I was speeding like a bat out of hell because I needed to pee really, REALLY bad. And he could tell that I lived only about five blocks away from where he pulled me over.

    I’m still pretty psyched that I got out of a ticket. 🙂

    BTW, if you want to e-mail me, just get my address off of the “All Users” page under the dashboard.

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  13. Quantum Leap

    Then he could cross-dress, too!

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  14. Why the need to describe the gun as loaded? Why wouldn’t it be? Does it sound more menacing?

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