Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1683.4 | -3.2 | -0.19% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2748.6 | 6.6 | 0.24% |
| Oil (WTI) | 105.1 | 0.4 | 0.37% |
| LIBOR | 0.266 | 0.001 | 0.38% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 81.71 | 0.050 | 0.06% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.58% | 0.02% | |
| Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 104.4 | 0.1 | |
| Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 103.8 | -0.1 | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 200.7 | -0.2 | |
| BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 4.35 |
Markets are down this morning as we head into a data-intensive week. Merger Mondays are back with a few big transactions. Bonds and MBS are down small.
We have 3 big events in bonds this week – first we have the FOMC meeting on Tues and Wed. The FOMC statement will undoubtedly be parsed very closely. We will also get the advance estimate of 2Q GDP on Wed. Finally, on Friday we get the jobs report. So lots of potential market-moving stuff towards the back end of the week.
There is a lot of discussion over who will be the next Fed Chairman after Bernanke’s term is finished in January. Bernanke has said he doesn’t want the job anymore. The two names mentioned are Janet Yellen and Larry Summers. Given that Summers hasn’t even done a stint as a Fed governor, he would be a surprising pick. This looks like so much theater. The next Fed Head will be Yellen. Yellen is an even bigger dove than Bernanke, so keep that in the back of your mind when you think about taper timing.
This week we will have a lot of earnings reports from the mortgage REITs. While we expect to see declining book values, the more interesting data will involve how much the REITs have de-leveraged. Some have done nothing (Capstead). Others have sold paper and still have increased leverage ratios because the value of their portfolio has dropped. What we hear from the REITs will tell us a lot about how much selling remains to be done in the MBS market, and that will tell us which way we want to lean with rates.
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
Brent, I asked the other day if you preferred Yellen to Summers.
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I at least have a good idea what a Yellen Fed would look like. With Summers, I have no idea. I don’t know why Summers is being considered – he has never held a job at the Fed. Geithner makes more sense as a nominee than Summers.
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FWIW, Ezra posted this today:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/07/29/wonkbook-what-obama-wants-from-his-next-fed-chair/
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obama wants a dove. he doesn’t give a rat’s ass about inflation, bubbles, or the dollar.
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The funny part (to me), Brent, is that I’d wager that the president doesn’t even know what the word “dove” in that context means.
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I’m starting to dig the National Conversation!
How can I be a “Turncoat Mofo!”?
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/3666966?utm_hp_ref=media
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More of the Republican’s War on Women.
http://minx.cc/?post=342056
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Brent: FYI
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100922238
“The feeling on Wall Street is that Larry Summers’ candidacy to chair the Federal Reserve may be a bit of a ruse to help vet front-runner Janet Yellen, said UBS’s Art Cashin”
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Ask David Gregory if it pYs to be on the “right” side of an issue?
http://wtop.com/109/3404250/Activist-Adam-Kokesh-ordered-held-without-bond-in-DC
At least this menace is off the street.
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I just wrote a long critique of Obama’s answer to one particular question from the NYT’s
ass-kissinginterview of Obama, but somehow I lost it. Can’t be bothered to recreate it, but this was the relevant passage:Note how the alleged constitutional scholar can’t manage to come up with even a feeble constitutional defense, and instead evades the question with fantasy, appeals to authority, and complete non-sequiturs. The real problem, though, is not so much that he engages in constitutionally questionable actions to advance his political interests or those of his party. He is hardly the first president in history to do that. What is disturbing to me is that he can’t be bothered to even feign coming up with a constitutional justification. As he says quite explicitly, he doesn’t care what others might think about it. His attitude can be summed up thusly: “You want to know where I get the constitutional authority to do it? Fuck you, that’s where. What you gonna do?”
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its ok because he is a democrat and the media believes his heart is in the right place. that is why no one will ever call him out on it.
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Brent:
its ok because he is a democrat and the media believes his heart is in the right place. that is why no one will ever call him out on it.
The NYT interview (forgot to link it below) was a total puff piece. At no point was O ever seriously challenged about anything. And there was one subtle but revealing slip by the reporter:
But do you worry, Mr. President, that that description of that sort of standing pat, what happens if you stand pat and the sort of slower than expected — do you worry that that could end up being your legacy simply because of the obstruction that — and the gridlock that doesn’t seem to end?
The reporter clearly accepts Obama’s framing that congress is “obstructing” him from accomplishing things, but catches herself mid-sentence and switches to the more neutral “gridlock”.
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And why wouldn’t he? Congresscritters have admitted that they’re out for obstruction for obstruction’s sake.
Why would you not take them at their word?
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That argument presupposes that Republicans believe obama’s ideas are good overall, but they want to obstruct simply out of spite or latent racism.
It doesn’t entertain the idea that Republicans believe obama’s ideas are terrible to begin with and that they are obstructing his agenda because they believe that is what is best for the country…
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I just got my son on the wait list for before/after care at the our public elementary school. It’s already fully booked. and he’s number 18 on the wait list. I should add this is for Fall 2014.
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Brent:
It doesn’t entertain the idea that Republicans believe obama’s ideas are terrible to begin with and that they are obstructing his agenda because they believe that is what is best for the country…
Yup. Unfortunately a lot of liberals can’t seem to fathom good faith disagreement with progressive orthodoxy, and so objection to their policy initiatives is automatically assumed to be the result of either stupidity or maliciousness. Hence the routine portrayal by the media of conservatives as either buffoonish or evil.
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Brent: I fully believe that they think that Obama’s ideas are bad. . . however, the voters have disagreed with them.
I don’t see any racism at all necessarily (spite, possibly). But, again, they got outvoted, so they need to just suck it up.
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lol did u get that off rush, goob?
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NoVA: if you went with the place that didn’t require a hat and tails the wait list might be shorter. . .
😉
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@Michigoose, nobody was saying that when GWB was trying to change social security and democrats pulled out all the stops trying to stop it. nobody was saying that with Scott Walker in WI. Republicans are allowed principled opposition too.
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FWIW, I think playing nice and getting along for the sake of bipartisanship has created a lot of the problems we face. Better to dig a trench and keep the opposition from advancing.
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nova:
Better to dig a trench and keep the opposition from advancing.
I think a lot of people forget, or ignore, the fact that Republicans in congress also got voted into office. It doesn’t make a lot of sense, and in fact betrays a misunderstanding of the very purpose of the structure of the federal government, to think that because Obama got elected, congress should automatically acquiesce to whatever policy preferences Obama desires. Let’s not forget that he was elected President, not King.
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Brent: not when it’s a bait and switch. Neither GWB nor Governor Walker campaigned on what they tried to pull.
If Republicans campaigned on what they try to do legislatively they’d never make it into office. If they’ve got principles they should run on them rather than keep them under wraps until they’re in office.
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And let me be clear: I think all of us posting here have principles. I’m not entirely sure about any politician.
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Kelley, I think a recurring problem for humans is the devotion to one principle or one cause over all others and the tendency to then forget any order of priorities in defense of the one principle. I think a recurring problem for politicians is weighing how to get elected/reelected.
————————————————-
In 2000, my favorite, McC, remarked that if he and Bill Bradley ran against each other, Americans would be bored, because they would be arguing about priorities. He said something to the effect that national defense was his first priority but it was #6 for Bradley. He said that they had once traded a list of 20 priorities and while they listed mostly the same stuff the order was very different. They were in close proximity on two: tax reform and the environment; and abortion was not on either of their lists. But they were far apart on who they would nominate to the Supremes and on all the other priorities.
I think it would have been refreshing.
But I think that is not the way campaigns are run and not the way to raise money and not the way to capture the media or the public.
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Better to dig a trench and keep the opposition from advancing.
How very obstructionist of you! 🙂
P.S. Looking like Baltimore arrival date will be around the 16th.
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Michi — he’ll likely end up at the private school, but this is the public.
it’s either that or somebody has to quit. so it’s pay a ton or pay cut.
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NoVA: have you thought about moving across the border to Howard County (not knowing exactly where you live)?
I keep hearing (ironically, since I don’t have kids) that they’re the best school district in the area. Better than private schools.
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BTW, I worked with a guy who has been counting down to this fall: first time both of his kids will be in school for the full day. He and his wife have been juggling schedules for almost ten years now with their two daughters and day care.
Having kids is tough work.
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yello would know better, but that’s an hour from DC w/ no traffic.
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Scott. Repeal the 22nd! or ignore it. whatever.
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nova:
…or ignore it. whatever.
Not entirely out of the question.
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I think a lot of people forget, or ignore, the fact that Republicans in congress also got voted into office.
By a minority of voters, by all accounts. Nonetheless, I think a legitimately elected president should be able to move his agenda through Congress without outright obstructionism.
Even if individual congressmen were elected by a majority of their districts, the president was elected by a majority of Americans.
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America is still a country, right?
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If Republicans campaigned on what they try to do legislatively they’d never make it into office. If they’ve got principles they should run on them rather than keep them under wraps until they’re in office.
What do R’s want to do but not campaign on?
The only thing that occurs to me is amnesty for illegal aliens. What else?
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I gave you two examples already, McWing.
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SS reform was campaigned on Bush. Walker also campaigned on Public Employee Union reform.
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Bush at the aught 4 convention.
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-09-02-bush-social-security_x.htm
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Walker link
http://m.weeklystandard.com/blogs/scott-walker-campaigned-reforming-wisconsin-s-collective-bargaining-rules_552370.html
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