Morning Report – watch the PIIGS 7/3/13

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1603.2 -4.0 -0.25%
Eurostoxx Index 2558.8 -44.4 -1.71%
Oil (WTI) 101.4 1.8 1.78%
LIBOR 0.274 0.001 0.37%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 83.39 -0.151 -0.18%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.46% -0.01%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 102.5 0.1  
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 101.4 0.0  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 204.2 -0.3  
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.35    
Early close today for stocks (1:00 pm) and bonds (2:00 pm). 
 
Markets are down small after political issues in Europe are pushing PIIGS spreads out. The Portuguese 10 year yield is 117 basis points higher to 7.89% and Greece is out 58 bps. Want to know what can stop the bond market selloff in its tracks?  Risk off trade due to European sovereign bond problems
 
We have a slew of economic data this morning, and Friday’s jobs report looms large. Mortgage applications fell 12%. Purchases were down 3%, while refis dropped 16%. The ADP Employment Change report which foreshadows the private part of Friday’s jobs report came in better than expected at +188k. Initial Jobless Claims were 343k, better than expected. 
 
The Fed approved Basel III capital requirements yesterday. The Fed apparently relaxed some of the capital requirements for mortgages, but it appears this would only apply to community banks. I haven’t seen anything with regards to MSRs.

31 Responses

  1. speaking of debacles.

    http://www.cato.org/blog/delaying-employer-mandate-requires-delaying-all-obamacare

    [Of note: I have a BA in journalism, so i’m authorized to post this]

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  2. Anyone been following the Zimmerman trial in Florida?

    Only when I have to. Today’s testimony was marred by technical problems with Skype. The prosecution couldn’t afford a motel room for its witness?

    The all-female jury (Is that good or bad for the defense?) could go either way but nothing changes the fact that Zimmerman shot and killed an unarmed teenager.

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  3. Licensing of journalists is something usually associated with the most authoritarian of regimes.

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  4. NoVA: given that your BA appears to have involved pizzas floating to you on magical streams I’m not sure that counts!

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  5. “Zimmerman shot and killed an unarmed teenager.”

    perhaps justifiably.

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    • perhaps justifiably

      That would be for a jury to decide. My statement is an uncontested fact.

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      • yello:

        That would be for a jury to decide.

        Actually I think we can all decide, although he’ll have to live with what the jury decides. I haven’t followed it that closely, but from what I have read it sounds like he was justified. If his account of what happened is true, and it sounds like even the prosecution witnesses are confirming it, then the “unarmed teenager” actually attacked Zimmerman, was beating the crap out him while telling him he was going to kill him, and so Zimmerman shot him. Sounds like reasonable self-defense to me, if true.

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  6. you are right. i wrongly inferred that it was somehow a a bad thing

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  7. it was somehow a a bad thing

    That all depends on where you stand on the killing of teenagers. Personally, I’m against it but I understand the desire.

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  8. it’s a case by case basis.

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  9. http://gawker.com/hatetriots-day-july-4th-is-americas-crappiest-holida-631149319

    pretty sure he’s trolling for page hit, but whatever.

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  10. Scott, sometimes your black-and-white world scares me.

    I think Zimmerman should spend more time in prison than he’s likely to get. He was a vigilante.

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    • RE: George Zimmerman case.

      I’ve been watching it on CNN, since I’m still stuck with only one foot that works for now.

      There have been inconsistencies in the statements Zimmerman gave when comparing to evidence.

      1) Martin jumped from behind a bush and attacked me. – There are NO bushes in the area.
      2) I was where I was NOT because I was following Martin, I was looking for a street sign and address. – There are only 3 streets, he has lived there for 3 years, and is the President of the Neighborhood Watch group, which consists of he and 2 of his friends, NOT created from a neighborhood meeting.
      3) Martin was ground pounding him with mixed martial arts moves. – Martin had NO mixed martial arts training, Zimmerman did and Zimmerman did not require any kind of medical treatment one would associate with such a ground pound.
      4) Martin grabbed my gun. – DNA analysis shows only Zimmerman touched his gun or gun holster.
      5) Martin kept slamming my head into the ground. – No DNA from Zimmerman found on Martin’s hands or hoodie sleeves from the elbows all the way down, including the hoodie cuffs.
      6) My personal FAV. Zimmerman stated, emphatically, in his first TV interview, he had never heard of the Florida SYG law. – His college instructor testified that the FL SYG law is covered, in length, in his class and that Zimmerman received an A+ on the test covering the same law.

      I think the trial took an awful turn yesterday for Zimmerman, which only confirms to me that he not only stalked Martin, but did NOT shot him in self defense. I only hope the jury notices all the inconsistencies.

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  11. Can we at least let the crappy YouTube video guy out if jail? It’s pretty obvious he wasn’t responsible for Benghazi.

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  12. If, as she claims, she did nothing wrong, why the request for immunity?

    You may remember the old saw, a prosecutor can get a grand jury to indict a ham sandwich. She’s already had numerous Representatives baying for her blood. Not a partisan matter, either. I’m sure that she’s quite familiar with what happened to Senator Stevens. Or Monica Lewinsky. Being the focal point of a scandal runs hundreds of thousands of dollars in legal fees. I’d want all the protection I could get too.

    Then again, your question is simply a variant of if you don’t have anything to hide, why protest? I’m sure you won’t mind the NSA, FBI, and the local school board blanketing your home with sensors. After all, you haven’t done anything wrong. Right?

    BB

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  13. All interesting points FB. It’s just that she already testified under oath that she has broken no laws. Doesn’t sound like she has the courage of her convictions anymore.

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  14. Actually, Troll, Darrell Issa has ruled she already testified under oath. Having listened to the committee hearings on C-SPAN on this very point, this is under considerable dispute. One does not give opening statements in a court trial prior to starting one’s testimony.

    As for courage, you’re simply making cheap shots. I suspect you would have made the same cheap shot had she not made any statement whatsoever.

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  15. Well, before she claimed her innocence I beleive she was sworn in. Could e wrong though. And I think it is a crime to lie to Congress even if not under oath.

    And yes, as a non fan of the IRS and the tax code, I’m loving these lay-ups. Who doesn’t?

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  16. Troll – You’re right. She was under oath when she made her statement. Either her lawyer was incompetent to put her in that jeopardy or she was a moron if he advised her that she couldn’t make a statement and also plead the Fifth. I’m arguing there is some ambiguity. The House is admittedly polarized, but there’s a strict party line divide on this call. There are echos of the Clinton impeachment.

    I’m not a particular fan of the tax code either, but I have some sympathy for her position. She has already been tried and convicted in the minds of some folks with a lot of power. They want her guts on a garter. Even if she wins, everything she has spent her life building could be vaporized. You try handling a legal bill of a few hundred thousand without warning. Oh, and you’re fired too.

    Not that long ago, someone was fired from the EPA for using a personal email address. That was the first I’d heard of any such requirement. Until a couple of years ago, I hadn’t worked out how to set up a VPN from work. I could read my work emails, but not respond. So, I’d send an email to the person via a personal email account and CC my work account so I’d have a record. That’s evidently a firing offense if you work for an agency that conservatives despise. I work for the military, so I’m probably safe. Unless, of course, somebody important wants to get rid of me.

    Unions have a tactic they use during a difficult contract negotiations: work to rule. They do exactly what is required and no more. It slows everything down to the point where it forces management to offer concessions. Those are the conditions feds face every day. We can work to rule and not get the job done or do what we have to do and hope we won’t be penalized for doing more than we have to.

    I don’t feel too bad about my position. I’m well paid, I have a lot of flexibility, and I feel I’m making a contribution to national security. So, I deal with the crap. But maybe you could just have a little consideration for someone caught in the kleiglights. Her career is wrecked. Probably her financial security as well. I wonder how you’d deal with that situation. My guess is you wouldn’t appreciate every two bit pundit tap dancing on your professional grave.

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  17. True to form, Troll. It’s known as an ad hominem attack. She’s a nasty person, so she doesn’t have any constitutional rights.

    By the way, George Will wrote his attack column weeks previously. He’s a hatchet man on your side, so I guess it’s fine by you.

    BB

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    • FB:

      It’s known as a ad hominem attack.

      What is?

      She’s a nasty person so she doesn’t have any constitutional rights.

      This is what is known as a straw man argument. No one has suggested she doesn’t have constitutional rights.

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  18. Please, Scott. She works for the IRS (or rather, worked for the IRS) and so is fair game for anything. Troll called her a coward for asserting her rights. Have the decency to at least stand behind your arguments.

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    • FB:

      Troll called her a coward for asserting her rights.

      And perhaps she is. Thinking so, however, doesn’t mean one thinks she has no constitutional rights, much less that she has none because she is a nasty person. You should have the decency to address what people actually say.

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Be kind, show respect, and all will be right with the world.