Morning Report – The Bernank inadvertently whacks the bond market 5/23/13

Posted on May 23, 2013 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1639.5 -16.1 -0.97%
Eurostoxx Index 2766.1 -68.9 -2.43%
Oil (WTI) 92.66 -1.6 -1.72%
LIBOR 0.273 -0.001 -0.37%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 83.92 -0.433 -0.51%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.00% -0.04%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 103.2 0.2  
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 101.8 0.1  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 199.5 0.5  
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.73    

 

Markets are lower again after yesterday’s massive reversal. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 340,000 down 23k from the week before and 5k below street estimates. Bonds are up about six ticks, which is surprising given that the SPUs are down 16.
 
Yesterday’s moves in the stock and bond markets have a lot of people scratching their heads. I’ll give you my explanation:  Yesterday’s reversal came during Bernake’s testimony, which I was listening to in the background. Bernake started his prepared remarks basically saying that the Fed would be guided by data, and noted that they feel like in hindsight, that they stopped QEI and QEII a little too early. As long as inflation remained below their target rate they felt like they had no reason to stop asset purchases. Bonds rallied early and the yield dropped to 1.89%. Then, during the Q&A, one of the questioners tried to pin down Bernake on when they would slow or stop asset purchases. Bernake repeated that the Fed would be guided by the data. When they see a materially better employment market, they will think about tapering. The questioner then asked if that could be before Labor Day. Bernake replied that if the data improves materially, then sure. Bernake’s body language was “well, it is a theoretical possibility that the labor market could improve dramatically over the summer and I am not going to rule anything out.” The bond market however focused on the statement that the Fed could end QE by Labor Day and sold off. Apparently a big asset allocation trade went through right about the same time where someone sold Treasury futures to buy stocks and that exacerbated the move. The S&P 500 turned on a dime about the same time and did a 40 point intraday swing. 
 
The bond market is just heavy, as it has been since it turned on a dime in the first week of May. Any rally is sold. This is traditional bear market behavior, and I don’t know how long it lasts, but until the market feels different, your borrowers are rolling the dice if they are floating. Note Bene: Bear market rallies are fast and furious, so you should expect increased volatility in rates. In both directions. 
 
The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales rose to an annualized pace of 4.97 million in April. Total Housing Inventory rose 11.9% at the end of April to 2.16 million units, a 5.2 month supply. Six months’ inventory is considered “balanced.”  The median existing home price increased to 192,800 in April, up 11% from a year ago. One thing to note is that the outsized activity on the West Coast and places like Phoenix is distorting the median price indices. Most of the activity is concentrated in a handful of hot market where prices are rising rapidly after bottoming last year. The rest of the country is not experiencing that at all. Home prices are up in the low / mid single digits elsewhere. 
 
In contrast to the NAR report, the FHFA released its monthly home price index report, which shows prices rose 1.9% in Q1 and are up 6.7% year over year. The FHFA report looks at the prices of houses with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which means that a lot of the activity on the West Coast is excluded, because it ignores cash transactions. The FHFA report is more of a “central tendency” report.
 

Filed under: Morning Report | 10 Comments »

Morning Report – The Bernank speaks at 10:00 EST 05/22/13

Posted on May 22, 2013 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1669.5 3.9 0.23%
Eurostoxx Index 2817.3 -4.3 -0.15%
Oil (WTI) 95.92 -0.3 -0.27%
LIBOR 0.274 0.000 -0.13%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 83.91 0.044 0.05%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.93% 0.01%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.2 0.1  
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 102.8 0.0  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 199 0.2  
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.65    

 

Markets are up again on no real news. Bonds and MBS are more or less flat
 
Mortgage Applications fell 10% last week as the recent rise in interest rates has taken its toll. The refi index was down 12% while the purchase index was down 3%. It appears that the 10 year has found a level here, at least for the short term.
 
McMansion builder Toll Brothers (TOL) reported better than expected earnings this morning. Revenues increased 38%.  Contracts increased 57%. ASPs were up huge – 16%. Backlog was up 69%. Toll’s results more or less mirror what the other homebuilders have reported, although the growth was larger in the builders that focus on starter homes and first move-up buyers. 
 
We had a lot of Fed-speak over the past couple of days. New York Fed President William Dudley said that it will take 3 to 4 months to make a determination over whether the economy is strong enough to stand an end to QE. St. Louis Fed Head James Bullard also said that purchases should continue. The Fed is concerned about the sequester’s effect on the economy, which will mainly be felt over the summer. Finally, the Bernank is scheduled to testify before Congress at 10:00. The minutes of the April 30 meeting will also be released today. 
 
The New York Fed released its mortgage backed securities purchase advice recently. In spite of the hike in interest rates, the MBS purchases stayed the same:  3 million MBS a day, of which the lion’s share is conforming (something like 80%). You would think the Fed would be more aggressive when rates increase and back off when they fall, but that isn’t what they are doing. 
 
It looks like Mel Watt faces an uphill climb to confirmation. The choice is seen as 100% political, while most Republicans think we need a technocrat who understands finance. The fear is that the partisan wrangling and posturing over Watt will poison the well so much that any sort of bipartisan housing bill will be more or less impossible. Principal mods aside, that would probably mean the end of HARP 3.0 which would extend HARP eligibility to late 2009 and 2010 vintages.

Filed under: Morning Report | 25 Comments »

Morning Report – Slow news day 05/21/13

Posted on May 21, 2013 by Brent Nyitray

Vital statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1664.6 0.0 0.00%
Eurostoxx Index 2811.6 -12.9 -0.46%
Oil (WTI) 96.49 -0.2 -0.23%
LIBOR 0.274 0.001 0.37%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 84.03 0.294 0.35%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.96% 0.00%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 103.7 -0.1  
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 102.3 -0.1  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 198.8 0.6  
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.67    

Perfectly flat – the S&P 500 futures that is.  Perfect description of today, with no economic data. Bonds and MBS?  More or less flat as well.

Tangentially related to housing and the mortgage business – the Despot beat earnings.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index  showed manufacturing activity decelerated in April. The 3 month moving average is more or less flat, indicating we are growing exactly on trend. For once, employment was the bright spot of the report.

Is credit finally starting to loosen up? One clue is found in the Professional Risk Managers’ International Association survey of risk managers. In home delinquencies, the vast majority expect delinquencies to stay the same or fall, but almost 40% expect them to fall. Less credit headaches gives banks the leeway to go out further on the risk curve. Another indication can be found in the latest Ellie Mae Origination Insight Report, where the average FICO score for a closed loan has fallen from 750 in November 2012 to 742 in April. The big question is whether originators are going to be willing to step out of the QM box, or will the landscape continue to be pristine jumbo loans and conforming / ginnie loans?

With the IRS scandal gaining steam, Obama got his “look, a squirrel” gift, at least momentarily. A new Senate report shows Apple’s international arm paid no income taxes to anyone. 

Filed under: Morning Report | 27 Comments »

A WIDGET FOR YOU!

Posted on May 20, 2013 by markinaustin

Do you want to compare hospital costs by procedure in your area? Around the nation? Bookmark this link and then have fun.

http://www.opscost.com/

Filed under: fun stuff | 14 Comments »

DO AWAY WITH THEM

Posted on May 20, 2013 by markinaustin

Do Away With Them
John D. Colombo

John D. Colombo is the Albert E. Jenner Jr. professor of law at the University of Illinois College of Law. His primary research area is federal and state tax-exemption for nonprofit organizations.

May 15, 2013

The best solution to the problems with 501(c)(4) organizations is to eliminate them completely. The problem with the (c)(4) designation is that it is essentially a charity that is permitted to engage in unlimited lobbying and some significant amount of political campaign activity (as long as that activity isn’t the organization’s “primary purpose”) in exchange for denying the organization the ability to receive deductible charitable contributions.

The I.R.S, will never be able to satisfactorily police the line at which political activity becomes “primary.”

But the Internal Revenue Service will never be able to satisfactorily police the line at which political activity becomes “primary.” Since “issue advocacy” (for example, lobbying) is permitted in any amount, the problem isn’t just one of identifying when political campaign activity becomes primary; it is also identifying the line between permissible issue advocacy and political campaign activity. This line is hard enough to enforce in the 501(c)(3) context, where political campaign activity is absolutely prohibited and lobbying permitted only to an “insubstantial” degree. The loosening of these restrictions in the (c)(4) context virtually invites wholesale noncompliance, which is pretty much what we have.

Further, the (c)(4) designation has no real purpose. The best explanation, in my view, for tax exemption for charities is that it is a sort of partial government subsidy for organizations that offer services that the private market will not offer, and that government either will not or cannot offer directly. I find it hard to believe that lobbying suffers from such a serious market failure that we need to subsidize organizations whose primary activity is to lobby. In fact, it seems almost perverse that the government would subsidize organizations whose primary purpose is to lobby the government.

So let’s make it simple: if you want to be a charity, be a charity and live with the 501(c)(3) limits; if you want primarily to be engaged in the political process through lobbying or otherwise, pay taxes like everyone else or register as a 527 political organization.

Filed under: taxes | 5 Comments »

Morning Report – the week ahead 05/20/13

Posted on May 20, 2013 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1660.1 -2.9 -0.17%
Eurostoxx Index 2806.9 -11.1 -0.39%
Oil (WTI) 95.7 -0.3 -0.33%
LIBOR 0.273 -0.001 -0.18%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 84.01 -0.240 -0.28%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.92% -0.03%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.2 0.2
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 102.7 0.2
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 198.2 0.3
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.66

Markets are slightly weaker to start the week on no real news. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in at -.53, indicating that manufacturing activity is decelerating. We saw the same thing in the Philly Fed last week. Merger Monday is back with a few new deals. Bonds and MBS are up small

This week is very data-light. The main market-moving event will be the release of the FOMC minutes from the April 30 meeting. The focus will be on the tapering of quantitative easing. We will also get existing home sales  – it will be interesting to see if the lack of inventory is concentrated only in the hot markets like Phoenix and San Francisco, or is it more widespread. New Home sales come out on Thursday – given the good earnings we have seen from the homebuilders, this number should be good. Finally, on Friday we get durable goods. Expect activity to start to tail off after the FOMC minutes. By noon on Friday, most of the street will be on the LIE ahead of the long weekend, so spreads will widen and pricing will be lousy.

Wells has briefly suspended foreclosures after new questions from the OCC. Meanwhile, the payments from the settlements has been slow to arrive.

The bond market bloodbath bumped up borrowing rates quite quickly. After bottoming out at 3.4% in early May, the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage is 3.66%. That is a big move in a short period of time. In times of excessive volatility, it makes more sense to lock than float. LOs tell your customers they are basically speculating on interest rates if they choose to float.

Filed under: Morning Report | 14 Comments »

Morning Report – No we are not in another housing bubble 05/17/13

Posted on May 17, 2013 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics: 

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1655.5 7.4 0.45%
Eurostoxx Index 2817.6 10.9 0.39%
Oil (WTI) 95.88 0.7 0.76%
LIBOR 0.274 -0.001 -0.18%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 84.29 0.700 0.84%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.90% 0.02%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.7 -0.3  
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103 -0.1  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 198.2 0.3  
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.6    

Markets are stronger this morning on good economic data. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence index rose to 83.7, a post-bubble high and better than expected. Leading Economic Indicators increased .6%, which was better than expected. These should normally not be market-moving indices, but lately stocks can do no wrong and bonds can do no right. The market seems to be convinced that the Fed can stick the landing and end QE without any major hiccups. 

The CoreLogic / Case-Schiller Q412 report is out. House prices increased 7.3% nationwide in 2012. They are forecasting prices to rise 2.5% in 2013 as the market broadens out from the red-hot Western markets like San Francisco and Phoenix. They see a 5-year annualized trend growth of 3.9%. The areas with the largest price gains: Phoenix (+23,8%), San Jose (+17%), Detroit (+ 16.7%), Miami (+13.5%) and Lost Wages (+13.4%). The biggest declines were in Long Island (-4.3%), Virginia Beach (-2%), Richmond (-1.5%), Philthy (-1.3%) and Birmingham (-1.3%). They do note that the fast-rebounding markets could hit an air pocket as professional investor demand wanes.

They do not see evidence of a new housing bubble. I actually find it humorous that a small rally off the bottom could be considered a “bubble.” Bubbles are rare things and are based on an idea that an asset price cannot go down. We saw that mentality during the late 90s – “Buy quality companies and hold them for the long term. Stocks always go up in the long term. The biggest risk is not being fully invested” People wrote books like Dow 40,000. Similarly, during the real estate bubble, people thought prices could never fall. People who had no experience in real estate were buying “Flipping Houses for Dummies.” Nobody that experienced the stock market bubble or the real estate bubble is going to believe that these asset prices cannot fall. There may be another stock or real estate bubble, but we won’t see it. Maybe our grandkids will.

It was noted at the MBA Secondary conference that private label spreads were widening. We finally see evidence of this with Redwood’s latest private label deal. They just sold $424 million of bonds with the senior tranches priced to yield 2.82%, a spread of 190 basis points over swaps. In January, similar deals were priced at 97 bps over swaps. $5.5 billion of private label deals have been done so far this year, as compared to $3.5 billion for all of 2012. That said, during the bubble, $1.1 trillion of PL securities were issued in one year, so we are still a long way from re-living the salad days of big real estate finance.

The House is holding a hearing this morning on the IRS scandal. Whether this turns into another Watergate or not, the President’s political capital is waning quickly. The net effect could be that not much more happens in Washington for the rest of his term. For us, that means replacing FHFA Chief Ed DeMarco with Mel Watt is going to be an even tougher sell, and principal mods for conforming loans / extension of HARP eligibility dates are become less of a sure thing.

Filed under: Morning Report | 25 Comments »

For Troll

Posted on May 16, 2013 by novahockey

Star Trek sequel review from Reason’s Peter Suderman.

“Star Trek Into Darkness” is an apt title for a movie as empty as the vastness of space. The movie moves as if through a vacuum — fast and frictionless, from one scene to another, with a lot of nothing along the way. The warp-speed pacing only barely hides the fact that it never really goes anywhere at all, and doesn’t aim to either. The final frontier? Forget it. This soulless sequel to a reboot is only too happy to go where every generic sci-fi blockbuster has gone before, and not so boldly either.

Filed under: movies | 35 Comments »

Morning Report – Housing starts slump 05/16/13

Posted on May 16, 2013 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1652.2 -2.1 -0.13%
Eurostoxx Index 2811.5 1.9 0.07%
Oil (WTI) 94.08 -0.2 -0.23%
LIBOR 0.274 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 83.81 -0.021 -0.03%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.90% -0.03%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.3 -0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 102.9 0.1
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 197.6 0.5
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.65

Markets are slightly lower after a barrage of negative data. The day began with Wal-Mart reporting earnings in line with estimates, but giving 2nd quarter guidance below estimates. Then, we had higher-than-expected initial jobless claims and a very disappointing housing starts number. Stock index futures are down a couple of points while bonds and MBS are up about a quarter of a point.

Initial Jobless claims increased from a revised 328,000 to 360,000 last week. This is the highest level since mid-February. The Department of Labor has noted that that there has been some seasonal gremlins in the data lately, so maybe that is what is going on.

Census reported that building permits increased by 14.3%, while housing starts fell 16.5%. Single family starts fell from 623,000 to 610,000, while multi-fam fell from 376,000 to 234,000. Multi-fam had been driving the housing starts numbers lately as investors try and get in on the rental boom. Single family has been more slow and steady. On the permits side, single family increased from 599,000 to 617,000 and mult-fam increased from 266,000 to 374,000. So maybe the April multi-fam drop was a blip.

Chart:  Housing starts 1959- Present

You can see from the chart above that even though housing starts have rebounded smartly from the recession lows, we are still at very depressed levels historically. Consider that we are more or less at the lows of the previous major recessions (73-75, 81-82, 91-92). Then factor in population growth. Conclusion:  there is a lot of pent-up demand out there..

The National Association of Home Builders released their Housing Survey yesterday, which showed builder confidence improved in May after a brief drop in April. “Builders are noting an increased sense of urgency among potential buyers as a result of thinning inventories of homes for sale, continuing affordable mortgage rates and strengthening local economies” noted a North Carolina based builder. In fact, he notes challenges regarding the cost and availability of labor, lots, and building materials. The homebuilders reported recently and did note some of these concerns as well, but there is a geographic slant to it:  the West has the most issues, while the Northeast does not.

Filed under: Morning Report | 57 Comments »

Morning Report – Mortgage Applications dive 05/15/13

Posted on May 15, 2013 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1645.3 -2.7 -0.16%
Eurostoxx Index 2801.6 6.0 0.21%
Oil (WTI) 93.29 -0.9 -0.98%
LIBOR 0.274 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 83.94 0.343 0.41%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.94% -0.03%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 105.2 0.3  
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 102.7 0.2  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 197.1 0.5  
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.65    

Markets are lower this morning after an earnings miss from John Deere (DE) and better than expected earnings out of Macy’s. The Producer Price Index fell .7% as commodity prices continue to drop. Bonds and MBS are up a quarter or so.

Mortgage Applications fell 7.3% in the last week, unsurprising given that rates have backed up so much. People will be looking at drier pipelines into early June. The purchase index fell by 4%, while the refi index fell 8%. 

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed manufacturing contracted in the May. The six month outlook weakened as well. Inflation remains muted. The employment-related indicators (number of employees and average workweek) declined slightly. The Fed and other economists had been predicting a second quarter slowdown, and this is evidence of it. The consensus is for a re-acceleration into the second half of the year. Certainly the stock market and the bond market are focusing more on the 2H acceleration than they are on the current slowdown.

Lots of good stuff in the latest CoreLogic Market Pulse. They discuss how residential construction has moved from a drag to a driver on the economy. While the red-hot Western markets like Las Vegas and San Francisco are seeing professional-driven buying, the markets of North Carolina and Texas are more balanced and are the healthiest new sale markets..On a price to income ratio, housing is still as affordable as it has been since the 90s. RTWT.

Filed under: Morning Report | 6 Comments »

« Previous Page — Next Page »