Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1641.0 | -9.0 | -0.55% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2765.2 | -11.6 | -0.42% |
| Oil (WTI) | 93.17 | -1.1 | -1.15% |
| LIBOR | 0.273 | 0.000 | 0.00% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 83.71 | -0.094 | -0.11% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.01% | -0.01% | |
| Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 103.1 | 0.1 | |
| Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 101.9 | 0.1 | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 200.2 | 0.3 | |
| BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 3.77 |
Markets are lower on no real news. Today will be basically a throw-away as the bond market closes at 1:00 pm and most of the Street will be on the LIE by noon. Bonds and MBS are up small
Durable Goods orders increased 3.3% in April. Ex transportation, they increased 1.3%. Good numbers. That said, the manufacturing sentiment reports out of the various Fed banks have been subdued, to say the least.
New Home Sales jumped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 454,000. This is 2.3% above the revised March rate and 29% above last year. The median sales price was $271,600 and the average sales price was $330,800, both big increases, indicating more activity is happening at the high end. Strangely, McMansion builder Toll Brothers’ earnings report was on the weaker side compared to its competitors.
So far, the narrative regarding Bernake’s statements in front of Congress has been that the Fed is considering tapering QE sometime this summer. My take is that is wrong, but we are seeing bear market behavior in bonds right now. Rallies are brief and quickly sold, while sell-offs seem to gather steam.
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
Good summation of President Obama’s national security speech:
“If there was a unifying theme of President Obama’s speech today at the National Defense University, it was an effort to align himself as publicly as possible with the critics of the positions his administration is taking without undermining his administration’s operational flexibility in actual fact. To put it crassly, the president sought to rebuke his own administration for taking the positions it has—but also to make sure that it could continue to do so.”
http://www.lawfareblog.com/2013/05/the-presidents-speech-a-quick-and-dirty-reaction-part-1/
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The Chinese are going the opposite way from more government stimulus:
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http://hotair.com/archives/2013/05/24/good-news-from-the-new-yorker-unlike-bush-obamas-pretty-conflicted-about-all-the-people-hes-killing/
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Should this man be prosecuted?
http://www.timesunion.com/local/article/DA-is-1st-in-state-to-refuse-Safe-case-4546270.php
If not, why have the law?
If so, what did the law accomplish with this individual?
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This might be mildly interesting to some of you here who will have college bound children soon, or eventually. I think most of you will probably fall into the more wealthy end of the spectrum, but just in case……………
Thank God we’re finally done, and we started in 1989, although I’m still paying off one of the bills.
http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-top-colleges-have-a-rich-kid-problem-2013-5
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Interesting article,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-rise-of-the-fourth-branch-of-government/2013/05/24/c7faaad0-c2ed-11e2-9fe2-6ee52d0eb7c1_story.html
Is the Federal bureaucracy adequately accountable to the citizens of the United States?
If not, why not?
If not, can it made to be accountable?
If not, is there a solution?
Is Turley’s analogy correct about Congressional oversight? Controlling a locomotive with a on/off switch?
If you think the Federal Bureaucracy lacks adequate accountability, how would Federal Single-Payer healthcare improve accountability? Meaning, if you believe that there is inadequate accountability why would you want to increase it’s power?
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Lms,
The data goes back to 2006. Is there any evidence that this economic diversity was better at a different time? In your opinion, was there ever a golden age for this economic diversity at these institutions? Finally, what would be the value for the majority of the college poor in getting a degree from one of these institutions?
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I don’t know the answers to any of those questions McWing. I have anecdotal stories that I could share but doubt anyone’s interested in those. I would presume that graduating from a top college would afford a poor student nearly the same opportunities as a rich student if they do well.
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Bernie Sanders on the Amnesty bill’s guest worker provisions:
“when young people in this country desperately need jobs to pay for a college education.”
I’m pretty sure only a minority of young people go to college. What an arrogant statement.
” I find it hard to understand that, when nine million people in this country have degrees in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics fields, only about three million have jobs in these areas.”
Spoken like a true central planner hunh?
You must work in the field you graduated from! The state demands it!
“These are kids, young high school graduates, and the unemployment rate is just extremely high. I do not understand why they cannot hire those people and need foreign labor.”
What if they’re just better workers? Any possibility of that?
“There are areas when you do need foreign labor. Here in Vermont, while I wish it were the case that kids would go into dairy, they do not.”
But the foreign workers for his own state? Now, they’re needed, damn kids won’t take the job. Everywhere else though, they’re stealing jobs. Especially the jobs that need degree’s! You know, the one’s Bernie thinks’re important!
“Again, if there is this great crisis which I am hearing about, that the American economy absolutely depends on having more high-tech workers, “
Don’t forget Vermont dairy workers! You know, if they paid more maybe those teens who just don’t want to work dairy, you know, might change their mind. I’m just spitballing here. Also, I wonder how Bernie feels about Federal milk subsidies?
http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/05/25/this-is-a-massive-effort-to-attract-cheap-labor-why-sen-bernie-sanders-is-skeptical-of-guest-workers/
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What’s funny to me is that I was an English Major.
http://thelastpsychiatrist.com/2012/11/hipsters_on_food_stamps.html
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The real test of Jerry Brown:
If I lived in California, I would be furious if they rolled back the spending cuts and left the tax increases in place after the way the tax increase referendum was sold politically.
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Good summation of the Obama administration and the various leak investigations.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/leonard-downie-obamas-war-on-leaks-undermines-investigative-journalism/2013/05/23/4fe4ac2e-c19b-11e2-bfdb-3886a561c1ff_story.html
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jnc, the tax increases are only temporary by design and by law. They would have to go either before the voters or legislatively enact new tax increases once they expire. I doubt they’ll do that.
Increases taxes on earnings over $250,000 for seven years and sales taxes by ¼ cent for four years, to fund schools. Guarantees public safety realignment funding. Fiscal Impact: Increased state tax revenues through 2018–19, averaging about $6 billion annually over the next few years. Revenues available for funding state budget. In 2012–13, planned spending reductions, primarily to education programs, would not occur.
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“jnc, the tax increases are only temporary by design and by law. ”
Even more of a reason not to go on a spending spree.
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Also, CA is aggressively implementing PPACA. I figure my oldest daughter and I will have the opportunity to provide evidence of how it works. She’s currently paying for the pre-existing conditions coverage and is already required to pick a new plan by July (I think that’s what she told me). My insurance (Blue Shield/small group) is scheduled to go up to about $1100/mo in November for an HMO 50. I’ll let all of you know what happens when or if I transition to an individual plan through the exchange.
From what I’ve been reading locally I believe my cost will be about the same or possibly a little less. The benefits may be slightly better than what I have now.
The new rates for individuals will be about the same — or lower — than the current rates for small businesses, according to officials from Covered California, the group operating the exchange.
“The changes in the market are really making individuals much more like employer groups,” Paul Markovich, the chief executive of Blue Shield, said. Like people who now receive health insurance through their employers, individuals buying policies on their own will be able to enroll next year even if they have a potentially expensive medical condition, and the policies’ benefits and premiums will be more standardized.
“We held insurers’ feet to the fire,” said Peter V. Lee, the executive director of Covered California, who said that the exchange had received interest from 33 insurers and actively negotiated with them over their proposed rates and the kind of network of doctors and hospitals they would offer. Covered California estimates that the plans offered will allow consumers access to about 80 percent of the state’s practicing physicians and hospitals.
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I don’t think Brown is interested in a spending spree. I know I’m not.
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I agree. This is the real test of Jerry Brown’s leadership, holding the line here to break the previous boom/bust pattern of California budgeting.
With regards to the PPACA, it’s interesting that the success is coming in the part that is most closely aligned with a market based reform, despite all the predictions that only single payer could reduce insurance costs.
However, that’s only a small part of the story given the limited number of people that are eligible for the exchanges due to the “firewall” between the employer provided insurance and the individual market. The other thing of course is how closely the costs match the estimates especially with the Federal exchange subsidies.
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jnc
In case you missed it here’s the response to a similar conversation we’re having at the PL.
“It’s not that difficult to understand that CA has to balance it’s budget every year. Obviously there are three choices, cut spending, raise taxes, or both. We chose both based on our Governor’s recommendation. Even Democrats can be sensible. One thing the voters emphasized with their vote on Prop 30 last year was the importance of education to our state.
I for one would much prefer trusting Democrats with these types of balancing act negotiations than Republicans whose goal is to slash government spending whenever and wherever possible.
There’s austerity and then there’s “austerity”.”
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I saw thanks. I’d argue that Jerry Brown is indispensable at this point. Absent his leadership, I don’t think the tax hike & spending cuts would have passed and California would still be in trouble and look more like Illinois.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/reboot-illinois/two-very-different-approa_b_3328571.html
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We’re picnicking at Riverside National today and taking a friend of my parent’s with us, so I’m out to pack up our lunch.
Tomorrow a BBQ for all of my husband’s vet friends and their families. The patriotic force is strong around here this weekend.
Later we’re going to see the new “Star Trek” movie……………..I promised my husband I’d go with him. We rented the one from about four years ago last night hoping that would refresh our memories first, if that’s even possible. I’m not that excited about it but I owe him…………………..hahaha
Enjoy the holiday everyone!
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jnc, no argument from me re Brown. Thank God we elected the guy again. He’s been superlative in most regards. I too hope he holds the line. Or should I say “walks the line”.
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Glad you found that amusing as well.
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For future reference:
Paul Krugman defines how you can tell if a liberal/progressive isn’t serious when they are making economic arguments:
“Could you say the same thing about liberals? I don’t think so. A few decades ago, you might have been able to draw up a somewhat similar list for the other side, involving things like the superiority of tradeable emission permits to command-and-control pollution regulation, the general undesirability of rent control, the benefits of airline deregulation, the absence of a usable long-run tradeoff between unemployment and inflation (and hence the impossibility of setting a 4 percent target for unemployment). But many liberals eventually conceded the point in each of these cases (maybe even conceded too far in a couple), without being declared no longer liberal.”
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/25/the-closing-of-the-conservative-mind/
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Wow, part II of hating hipter’s is even more brutal.
http://thelastpsychiatrist.com/2012/11/hipsters_on_food_stamps_part_2.html
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Lms, with guaranteed issue, why don’t you and your daughter wait to purchase insurance until you need it?
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McWing, just one of our daughter’s inhalers she uses everyday costs $250/mo. The rescue inhaler is about $80 and none of that counts her allergy shots and trips to the ER every year. PCIP was a godsend for her and us. She pays the premium and the high deductible and then we can all sleep at night knowing she can receive medical care any time she needs it. Some years are better than others.
And I doubt my trip to the ER and three days in the hospital last year would have been covered if I waited until I got sick first to purchase insurance. I doubt you’ll be able to apply for coverage from a hospital bed. It was an expensive stay for me as our co-pay is really high but the alternative would have devastated our finances.
I believe in medical insurance and am willing to pay even if we’re not sick as an insurance against the inevitable. I wish we had cradle to grave medical coverage, through one entity, as I believe it would be the most cost effective for all concerned, but until then I’ll pay my way however the current model expects us to.
We’re taking off for the day now. Enjoy your Memorial Day.
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Lms, it’s my understanding that with Obamacare, you cannot be denied coverage, so you literally could call from the hospital. Perhaps for your daughter it’s not an option but for you, it seems to make the most economic sense. It’s also the law of the land, so how is it not “paying your way” if you purchase the healthcare when you need it? Obamacare essentially destroys the concept of insurance and replaces it with a healthcare package, in that light, you’re not not paying your own way. Your buying a product, healthcare, in the most cost effective manner within the bounds of the law.
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McWing, I don’t think it’s going to be quite like you’re describing.
#5 – When do you have to shop for health insurance?
For individual coverage, open enrollment starts October 1, 2013. You won’t be able to escape the news on this one. It is important to shop during the open enrollment period – you can’t wait until you are sick to purchase coverage. If you develop a serious illness, you’ll be on your own until the next enrollment period. You can take that risk, but why not take care of yourself and know you have the bases covered
http://www.forbes.com/sites/carolynmcclanahan/2013/05/25/five-quick-and-important-facts-on-health-insurance-through-obamacare/
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If that article is accurate then anybody who is on their parent’s insurance and turn 27, or who have insurance through their company and get’s fired, or the company goes under are in for a surprise.
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McWing, I understand the temptation to find things wrong with the ACA, I’m sure there’s plenty, but they’ve considered those possibilities already. I’m not in love with the results of health care reform but it will, and has, personally helped my family, and would have saved my niece’s life 5 years ago if she’d gotten sick a few year later, so I’m giving it a chance for obvious reasons. It’s almost the only reason I voted for Obama last year, because I’m grateful. It’s not a popular position here but it’s the one I’ve taken.
I’m hoping implementation isn’t a disaster because a lot of people are counting on having health insurance next year that have been locked out of the market previously. I’m also proud to be from CA as we’re really working as hard or harder than any state to make it a success. If it works here I think it will prove that the possibilities exist for real changes to health care delivery. It may be a lot of wishful thinking on my part but this has been my primary political issue since March 8, 2008 so I care about it very deeply.
Open enrollment periods. The ACA authorizes HHS to prescribe open enrollment periods both in and outside of the exchange in the individual market. The final rule requires an annual, end of the year, open enrollment period, but does recognize a one-time 30-day special enrollment period for 2014 for individuals whose policy years are not on a calendar year basis. States are permitted to establish more frequent open enrollment periods.
Individuals can also enroll in coverage if they experience one of the “qualifying events” that would qualify them for COBRA coverage (such as loss of group coverage due to the death or termination of an employee). HHS also exercises its regulatory discretion to establish open enrollment periods to recognize a number of “limited open enrollment periods,” which are equivalent to the special enrollment periods recognized in the exchange rule. Limited open enrollment periods of 60 days can be triggered by an individual’s loss of minimum essential coverage; an individual gaining or becoming a dependent through marriage, birth, adoption, or placement for adoption; errors in enrollment; violation of a material provision of the insurance contract by the insurer; eligibility or ineligibility for premium tax credits or changes in eligibility for cost-sharing reductions; or an individual’s permanent move. Insurers need not inform enrollees of their right to a special enrollment period.
http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2013/02/23/implementing-health-reform-the-final-market-reform-rule/
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This is another interesting report on the slowing of insurance rate increases since the passage of the ACA. I’ve input my personal information into a qualifier for what I believe is a similar plan to the one I have now (silver I think) and it looks like my rate will be approximately $200 less than the $883 I’m paying now.
I may be the only one here applying for coverage through the ACA and so I thought it would be interesting for some of you to know how or if it’s working for me. You may have friends or family in the same boat…………….I really don’t know. I understand how difficult it is to accept that the ACA is now the law of the land when y’all fought so hard against it so I’m not trying to rub your noses in it or anything, I’m just trying to be practical and stick to the facts and what I perceive as the benefits.
Summary: The Affordable Care Act brings an unprecedented level of scrutiny and transparency to health insurance rate increases. Evidence suggests that the Affordable Care Act contributed to a reduction in the rate of increase in premiums in the individual market since 2010. The proportion of rate filings in which the requested increase was 10 percent or more declined from 75 percent in 2010 to 34 percent in 2012, consistent with the increased scrutiny that such requests now receive. Available data for 2013 suggest that this pattern of slower premium growth has been maintained so far in 2013, with only 14 percent of requested rates at 10 percent or more. In addition, the average premium increase in 2012 was 30 percent below that in 2010.
Click to access rb.pdf
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Thanks for the links, Lms. Unfortunately, we’re at the complete mercy of unaccountable bureaucrats and industry cronies and will have to ultimately wait and see. I find the prospect of that nauseating. And yes, I take pleasure in finding and highlighting the faults in this law, I consider it an abomination and see it as utterly ruinous. I also suspect that at ATiM, among the frequent commenters here, only Scott and I would repeal the law in it’s entirety. That would make us the minority.
I’ve mentioned it before and I think it bears repeating here, I do not beleive that healthcare is a right, it is a commodity. With that in mind, I have less interest in discussing improvements to the law, or laws governing healthcare. My Interedt lies in the arguing the underlying philosophies supporting the concept of a right to healthcare.
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Troll…. you said ” I do not believe that healthcare is a right, it is a commodity”.
Ok, let’s take a look at this from where I stand (I have no idea about you or your situation, health, income, etc.).
I’ll soon be 58. I learned about 10 years ago that I was born with my spinal column too small to house my spinal cord and, with the aid of insurance through my employer, I was able to undergo 6 rounds of very needed shots in my c-spine over those 10 years.
Then in July 2010, my job (for the 3rd time) was outsourced to India… lost my insurance (again). In late 2011, the last round of shots I had received in 2010 had worn off. The “part-time” job I had did not provide insurance, but yet, I earned too much for any state aid, but yet, could not afford the cost of insurance on my own.
So I simply worked through the pain, until January of this year, 2013, when my doctor told me that I could not work any longer. With multiple nerves and arteries being compressed, he determined it was just too much of a danger of my permanently damaging or destroying nerves and/or arteries.
Now the fix for this is a surgery that has a starting cost of $200k… in my case will be more as I have 5 of the 7 c-spine vertebrae that need to be fixed (cut vertebrae, take bone from leg and insert to make vertebrae bigger). So for me to have my c-spine (lumbar also needs, but c-spine worse so lumbar waits) fixed, I am looking easily at $250k or more.
Now back to your statement “healthcare is not a right, it’s a commodity”.
So you’re telling me, that even though I am not disabled because I did nothing to take care of myself, etc. etc., , that even though I am the way I am because I was BORN with this…..that having access to affordable healthcare to get my c-spine and later, my lumbar, fixed so I do not live a life of nothing but pain and thus am unable to work… that it’s basically, for me “that’s the way the cookie crumbles”.
So in effect, in your opinion, since I was not born of a wealthy family, or, was somehow lucky enough to have a career which paid me sufficiently so that I could afford these very expensive surgeries on my own…. the only thing I have a right to is to continue with the pain and suffering, that I have no “right” to have my spine fixed.
Gee thanks Troll.
I for one am truly frothing at the mouth to get my hands on some insurance, government issue or not, so I can live the rest of my years pain free. Thank GOD (and I’m an atheist LOL) for the ACA.
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Geanie:
So in effect, in your opinion, since I was not born of a wealthy family, or, was somehow lucky enough to have a career which paid me sufficiently so that I could afford these very expensive surgeries on my own…. the only thing I have a right to is to continue with the pain and suffering, that I have no “right” to have my spine fixed.
I am curious…is it your belief that you are morally entitled to the services of a surgeon who can perform the needed surgery? That is, that such a surgeon is morally obligated to perform the surgery without getting paid?
I am also curious….do you think rights are determined by how much money one has or doesn’t have? IE, since you were born without money and don’t have a high paying job, you are morally entitled to something without paying for it that someone who was born with money or has a high paying job is not morally entitled to without paying?
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we’re at the complete mercy of unaccountable bureaucrats and industry cronies
As someone who has suffered the ultimate sacrifice at the mercy of the insurance industry you’ll have to forgive me for not being swayed by that argument.
I take pleasure in finding and highlighting the faults in this law
I have no issue with that as long as they’re reality based.
My Interedt lies in the arguing the underlying philosophies supporting the concept of a right to healthcare.
That’s nice, but I have no interest in doing that as I’ve already done it, repeatedly. I will just continue to highlight the implementation of the law as it stands and I will do it in a personal way because, in my opinion, healthcare is a very personal issue.
Out now to prepare for guests.
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Glenn Greenwald gets it exactly right:
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“That’s nice, but I have no interest in doing that as I’ve already done it,”
I never get tired of it as it always leads to new areas. Spice of life and all that.
I agree, healthcare is a personal issue. Do you think I object to your discussing it in personal terms ?
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Do you think I object to your discussing it in personal terms ?
Not necessarily, I’m just letting you know what my plan is here regarding implementation. I’m mostly over the big philosophical/political debates and am trying to stick to more practical matters. Probably not that interesting for a political blog but it’s about as far as I’m willing to stick my neck out any longer.
Haha, I’ve got five guys, all Vietnam Vets, left from the party today, including my husband. They just loaded up the fire pit with wood and broke out the scotch. Looks like it’s going to be a long night. Two of them can walk home and one’s the designated driver for the other so at least I won’t have to give any of them a ride home this year………………….Another Memorial Day behind me. I like to make myself scarce when the war talk starts. I think they hold back when I’m around, as if anything could really shock me. Luckily I’m reading a good book.
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Genie, hopefully ACA will be fully implemented in your state and you’ll be able to access it easily. Let me know how it goes. I’m keeping tabs on a number of people who haven’t had access to the insurance market either because of cost or pre-existing conditions in several different states.
Don’t forget to watch for the enrollment dates in your state, they’re all slightly different according to what I’ve heard and read.
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Geanie, I asked the other day but you might have missed it, is it immoral to view healthcare not as a right, but as a commodity?
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Troll… you said “Geanie, I asked the other day but you might have missed it, is it immoral to view healthcare not as a right, but as a commodity?”.
Due to pain levels at this time, answers are short.
I believe that viewing healthcare as a commodity is immoral.
I do not believe that the surgeon who can fix my spine should do so at no charge… after all, that is how he is making his living.
I do believe everyone has the right to healthcare, rich and poor alike.
I believe one’s financial wealth, or lack of, in no way should be the basis of what kind and how much healthcare one is to receive.
How it is all to be paid for is the inherent difficult question. I have no problem with a single payer system and being in the situation I am in, through no fault of my own, I am hoping ACA will be able to at least get me some relief, even if temporary.
Imsinca…. Thank you and I will do my best to keep you posted.
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Imsinca… just as I thought:
Gov. Mary Fallin announced in November 2012 that Oklahoma will not implement a state-run health insurance exchange. In the same press release, Fallin expressed her support for lawsuit brought by Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt. The suit contends the federal government cannot implement a federally operated health insurance exchange in a state that has not authorized an exchange.
So it looks like I will have to check into the Federal Exchange,
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Geanie, I’d forgotten you were in OK. Hopefully the Federal Exchange will be up and running for you. We can compare notes later on the difference between the state and federal exchanges but I’m confident you will get adequate coverage as the same minimum standards for the four levels will be the same.
Good luck.
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Thank you for your response Geanie.
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