Morning Report – More Mel 05/02/13

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1582.8 5.5 0.35%
Eurostoxx Index 2729.8 18.1 0.67%
Oil (WTI) 91.37 0.3 0.37%
LIBOR 0.273 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.75 0.263 0.32%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.64% 0.01%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 106.4 -0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.6 -0.1
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 192.8 0.3
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.4

Markets are stronger this morning after the ECB cut rates and initial jobless claims came in lower than expected. Productivity increased as well. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Yesterday’s FOMC statement turned out to be a “steady as she goes” statement. They mention that they are ready to increase or decrease asset purchases in response to changing economic conditions. ZIRP (meaning rock bottom interest rates) will continue as long as unemployment is above 6.5% and inflation remains at 2.5% or lower.

People are still trying to understand the implications of Mel Watt as Chairman of the FHFA. The biggest one is that Mel Watt was not nominated to preside over the dissolution of the government’s role in housing finance. Fannie and Fred will survive in some fashion. The elephant in the room is principal mods for people with underwater conforming mortgages. That will undoubtedly come up in the confirmation hearings. In his announcement, obama continued to press the left-wing narrative that “reckless lending” caused the financial crisis while studiously ignoring the fact that we had a housing bubble that was caused (or at a minimum enabled) by activist government policies and extremely loose monetary policy. I do think it is ironic that he talks about reckless lending when the government bears 50% of the credit risk of the entire US mortgage market. While people have hoped that the government will extricate itself from the mortgage market, this appointment suggests otherwise.

Challenger and Gray job cuts fell to 28,121 in April, a drop of 6% year-over-year. This is the lowest level since December 2012. Despite the sturm and drang over the sequester, the massive expected layoffs have yet to appear. Aerospace and defense did announce 1,928 job cuts that were related to the sequester. This is a far cry from the 900,000 jobs that were forecast by some studies.

19 Responses

  1. I expect sequester related cuts to be rolled out over the next several months, but if the economy grows, almost no one will notice. There is a mistake some make of equating the federal impact on the economy – which is real, no doubt, and profound – with the economy itself.

    Brent, I have read bad stuff over the years about this guy Mel, to the point where I fear that he is ethically challenged. I am one of the few [most of whom were here] who thought deMarco was doing a good job. I hope this guy is not a disgrace, b/c he will have opportunity to trade favors in this position.

    BTW, Brent, the triangle metros of TX [SA-Austin to metro Houston to DFW] are booming. The oil field and refinery cities [like Midland-Odessa and Corpus Christi, respectively] are booming. The triangle metros, by local news accounts, added 22k jobs in March. 22/120 for the nation? I do not believe that both numbers can be correct.

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  2. Mark, this is the Challenger and Gray job cut report – it measures the amount of job cuts announced in press releases. It isn’t a jobs report.

    Certainly the early line on Watt is that the Left loves him, the rest not so much.

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    • Brent, I was referring to the ADP report from the previous day.

      JNC, I did not see your links.

      Scott, I’ll answer you on Adam Smith and health care later. Think about “willing buyer under no compulsion” and “perfect information” as concepts essential to the operation of the competitive mechanism, for now.

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      • Mark:

        Think about “willing buyer under no compulsion” and “perfect information” as concepts essential to the operation of the competitive mechanism, for now.

        OK. Anticipating what you might say, I will observe that very few if any markets operate with perfect information, and indeed the best conveyor of information to any market is a free-market price. The less free the market price, the less information available to buyers.

        I’ll wait for you to expand on the compulsion point, but I would point that there is a relevant distinction to be drawn between being compelled by circumstances and being compelled by the force of another person. It is definitely true that the latter perverts markets and makes them less efficient, but the same cannot be said of the former.

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  3. “Brent, I have read bad stuff over the years about this guy Mel, to the point where I fear that he is ethically challenged. I am one of the few [most of whom were here] who thought deMarco was doing a good job. I hope this guy is not a disgrace, b/c he will have opportunity to trade favors in this position.”

    It’s far worse than “ethically challenged” on Watts and I agree on DeMarco. Did you see any of the links I posted on PL about Watts yesterday? Both Shrink2 and I were appalled at the choice.

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  4. jnc, that Dayen link is excellent. He’s followed the foreclosure crisis since the beginning and was highly critical of the Administration’s efforts, or should I say lack of effort. I think he’s probably got this right.

    I’m not impressed…………………….again.

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  5. lmsinca, I had forgotten about this:

    “In other areas, DeMarco, who has a rigid conception of his role as a conservator of taxpayer dollars, has been far more aggressive against Wall Street, in ways that most liberals and housing activists would support. FHFA is currently leading the largest prosecution against banks for their role in the financial crisis of any government agency, a lawsuit against 17 banks concerning $200 billion in faulty mortgage-backed securities purchased by Fannie and Freddie. FHFA claims banks misrepresented the quality of the loans in those securities when they sold them to the GSEs, and wants the banks to buy them back. The banks recently tried to reverse the rulings of the district court judge presiding in the case by going over her head to a federal appeals court; this gambit failed. If FHFA wins the case it would probably trigger a wave of private litigation, and completely alter the banks’ legal exposure. It’s a far more consequential action, if you’re concerned about justice for those who caused the financial crisis in the first place. (Nobody knows Watt’s position on these lawsuits, and whether he would continue to pursue them at FHFA.)”

    I now suspect that Watt’s nomination is meant to get a compliant regulator in place who will do a settlement with the banks that will limit their exposure here, consistent with past administration practice.

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    • jnc:

      if you’re concerned about justice for those who caused the financial crisis in the first place.

      This is, of course, a crucial point. The trouble is that government is never going to seek justice from itself, despite the fact that it was the primary cause of the financial crisis in the first place.

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  6. Hahahaha, nova. I’m off to AZ Monday and think we have a good presentation on our end. We’ll see what the AZ folks think of it. We’ve got some motivated and talented people in our group. I’m not that encouraged that we’ll be successful with Flake but we’re giving it a good effort. I think if we can switch the Senate it’ll be interesting to see what the House does with the legislation. I believe it’s what could technically be called a long shot. 😉

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  7. jnc, every time I read about this stuff with the banks and settlements and the various ideas out there for settlement all I can think of is everyone saying in 2008, “we have to save wall street in order to save main street”. I’m a little cynical on that now.

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  8. Ron Paul tried to reign in the Fed, but didn’t succeed.

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    • jnc:

      Ron Paul tried to reign in the Fed, but didn’t succeed.

      True. But apparently DeMarco wants to sue banks, not the fed. Or Barney Frank. Or Chris Dodd.

      Those who cheer on regulator’s attempts to sue banks in search of “justice” over the financial crisis do not, I don’t think, have a good grasp at all on what actually caused the crisis.

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  9. Nova & lmsinca – the other meme that comes to mind is that lmsinca doesn’t approve:

    http://www.disapprovingrabbits.com/

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  10. I suppose it’s time to drag out my church lady avatar again. I’ll see you guys in a couple of weeks……………………………..

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  11. A lawsuit based on this:

    “FHFA claims banks misrepresented the quality of the loans in those securities when they sold them to the GSEs, and wants the banks to buy them back. “

    Seems perfectly appropriate. The banks can either defend against the charges or they can’t. I want to see the charges adjudicated though, not settled to make the problem go away.

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    • jnc:

      Seems perfectly appropriate.

      It may well be. But it has nothing to do with “justice for those who caused the financial crisis”.

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