Morning Report – Risk off? 03/18/13

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1540.5 -13.1 -0.84%
Eurostoxx Index 2682.2 -43.6 -1.60%
Oil (WTI) 92.52 -0.9 -1.00%
LIBOR 0.28 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.68 0.419 0.51%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.94% -0.05%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 192.8 -0.8  

Markets are sharply lower this morning on the news of Cyprus’s banking crisis. The fear is that financial contagion could spread the to other sovereigns who have been given a bit of a reprieve from the bond vigilantes. You are seeing a bit of a widening in the PIIGS this morning, but nothing dramatic. Needless to say, the 10 year is benefiting from the flight to quality trade and is trading comfortably below 2%.  MBS are up as well.

This week will have some important economic data points, with Housing starts to be released tomorrow. The Street is at 915k. The FOMC meeting starts Tuesday, with the decision to be announced Wed afternoon. Notwithstanding the Cyprus situation, investors will be looking for clues as to when the Fed ends QE. With the Fed dominating the MBS and Treasury markets, “me-too” traders may find the exit much more narrower than they imagined. The FHFA House Price Index comes out on Thursday, along with existing home sales and leading economic indicators. 

This month’s CoreLogic Market Pulse discusses the mortgage market in transition, as we move from a market dominated by serial refinances to one driven more by purchase activity. Assuming that the Cyprus situation doesn’t trigger another Euro crisis, we can probably say we have seen the bottom of interest rates for this cycle (and maybe for a generation or two).  The good news is that purchase activity will be replacing refi activity; the bad news is that it will take longer to ramp up than refis, which can turn on a dime.

The key to the return of the purchase market is the first-time homebuyer, who has been dormant since 2007.  Household formation has been depressed since the crisis began and is only now beginning to turn around. Unfortunately, it looks like most of these people are becoming renters. Unless you qualify for a FHA mortgage, it is very difficult to get financing these days without a sizeable down payment. Institutional investors have picked up some of the slack, with their market share purchases increasing to 27% from 16% two years ago in places like Phoenix. These properties are most likely going to rentals. Institutional investors like Blackrock have raised billions for this activity since real estate bottomed over a year ago. I suspect they are going to find that the activity less profitable than they modeled and this demand will turn to supply as they ring the register on some of these properties.

Relative to incomes, real estate is the cheapest since the 1970s and the late 90s.  RTWT.  Lots of good stuff in this issue.

Over the past few months, the back up in rates has been quite dramatic, with the 10-year going from 1.6% to over 2%. How has this affected mortgage rates?  It turns out that MBS / Treasury spreads have stayed relatively consistent since last November.  Note: These are yields on the securities themselves, not actual borrowing rates. 

 

16 Responses

  1. “Did the Empire Want to Blow Up the Death Star? A Conspiracy Theory Debunked.
    By Quora Contributor

    Posted Monday, March 18, 2013, at 12:07 PM”

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/quora/2013/03/18/star_wars_conspiracy_theory_did_the_empire_want_to_blow_up_the_death_star.html

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  2. Interesting. Hackers being able to falsely dispatch SWAT teams to their target’s houses.

    http://krebsonsecurity.com/2013/03/the-world-has-no-room-for-cowards/

    Brian Krebs use to be the Washington Post’s cyber-security writer.

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  3. With the Republican party flailing all over the place trying to redefine, re-imagine, rework or whatever it is that they’re trying to do to re-position themselves with voters, I really do think that the Libertarian Party has a window of opportunity here to become the other major party in our two-party system. What do you think? Ron Paul was wildly popular with a subset of young voters, probably the ones the GOP is missing, and with a little tweaking (a little less of the every-man-for-himself and a little more of admitting that Medicare, Medicaid and SS are not going away and should be adjusted rather than eliminated) the Party could appeal to a wide swath of voters. I’m not a historian, so I don’t know how the Whigs managed to eliminate themselves, but could the GOP be going down the same path? And could the Libertarians make a move?

    And, FWIW, I thought that this comment today on PL was brilliant:

    Dear Mr. Priebus,

    Far be it from us to tell you how to do your job, but as subject matter experts we feel it’s our duty to inform you that the lipstick goes on *the other end* of the pig.

    Respectfully,
    The Folks at Revlon

    h/t barandsail

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    • Hi, Kelly –

      I still consider myself a libertarian [small “l”]. I wonder about the line drawing differences for me and say, JNC. JNC and I agree on a whole range of issues. But there are times when my notions of civil liberties clash with various notions of economic liberty.

      For example, Scott and I agree that slavery is wrong.

      Suppose a business has enough leverage by reason of a surplus labor pool to pay wages so low that employees cannot support themselves. Does economic libertarianism dictate the pittance wage or does civil libertarianism dictate a living wage?

      At some low wage point I see this as a slavery issue. At some higher wage point I see this as forcing an employer to pay more than it should in the market. I think there is an area where both issues are accommodated, in between.

      I wonder what JNC and NoVA think; Scott, too.

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      • Mark:

        I wonder what JNC and NoVA think; Scott, too.

        I don’t think slavery can be likened to a low-wage paying job. Slavery is defined by both the threat and use of physical coercion to compel labor. There is a relevant and significant difference between being forced to do something by another person, and being forced to do something by one’s personal circumstances or the nature of reality.

        As for the hypothetical you propose, the only reason a surplus labor pool gives an employer leverage over the wages he can pay is if there are people within that labor pool willing to work for the wage he offers. And if the wage quite literally was not enough to support oneself on, who would ever accept it? Certainly they couldn’t accept it for very long, because by definition they cannot survive on it. And so pretty quickly the labor pool would shrink and the employer would be compelled to offer more. I think that when people speak of a wage too low to support oneself, what they really mean is a wage too low to maintain a certain minimum lifestyle that they find acceptable. As McWing rightly points out, we have all kinds of people ready, willing, and able to work for much less than what the government deems a proper minimum wage. So to say that they cannot support themselves on it seems to be wrong.

        BTW, I would also say that setting a minimum wage in your hypothetical situation may provide some part of the labor force with whatever minimum standard of living you find palatable, but it also condemns others to getting quite literally nothing. Remember, by definition there is already a surplus of labor. Artificially raising the price of that labor can only cause demand for it to be lower still, thus increasing the surplus.

        Lastly, I think that any government which offers some kind of a “safety net” or welfare has, by implication, already set a minimum wage below which wages paid by employers cannot naturally fall, and so within the context of a welfare state, there really is no need to introduce a higher, more explicit minimum wage.

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  4. I found out that, philosophically, I’m a Left Libertarian during the 2008 election (at least as defined by a surveying web site). I would (in my infinite wisdom and hubris) classify Scott as conservative, while jnc and NoVA are more middle-of-the-road libertarians. You I would classify as a LL like me. . . but this is all my hubris at classifying other people.

    I’m still very interested in answers to my basic question: is the GOP on its way out, and will the Libertarian Party take its place?

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    • Mich:

      I would (in my infinite wisdom and hubris) classify Scott as conservative, while jnc and NoVA are more middle-of-the-road libertarians.

      I think there is very little on which I would disagree philosophically with either JNC or NoVa. JNC and I tend to disagree a bit over banking issues, but that disagreement comes within the context of an already existing and distinctly non-libertarian system. If we were to start with a blank slate and build an ideal system, I suspect we would end up in a very similar place.

      I confess that I don’t know what a left-libertarian is. I know what principles define plain old libertarianism, specifically non-coercion. What principles define left-libertarianism?

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  5. Mark, the market has spoken and 11 million illegals agreed that a wage above the average campesino was worth accepting. With porous borders, a minimum wage requirement is laughable. You legalize those illegals and what do you get?

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  6. The achilles heel of the libertarians is the conspiracy theorist, anti-Fed gold bug wing. They sound like morons and scare business too much. (Can you imagine a gold bug as Treasury Secretary?)

    I still think there needs to be a party that is in favor of free markets, views the tax code as a means of funding the government not a means of social engineering, believes in capitalism and wants to preserve the healthy competition that it promotes, thinks that manipulation of the markets creates more problems than it solves, wants a smaller government footprint, believes that regulation is necessary but at the same time looks for market solutions to problems, doesn’t view the world as a zero-sum game viewed through the prism of inequality, views the safety net as necessary but is wary of making promises we won’t be able to keep, and wants to make the government do as much as they can with as few resources as possible.

    If the GOP dies out, some other party will represent them. They are not welcome in the Democratic Party.

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  7. Brent: your middle paragraph pretty much defines left-leaning Libertarianism (at least, as I understand it). I think that you have a more cynical view of the Democratic Party than I do, since many of those issues are establishment policies as far as I can see.

    I don’t see gold bugs as Libertarians, I see them as Tea Partiers in Libertarian clothing.

    Above all I see a need to return to a two-party system where both parties are rational. Right now we’ve got a right leaning party and a far, far right leaning party, and it isn’t working very well.

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  8. I don’t see libertarianism replacing the mainstream conservative party based on the results of the last election. The Libertarians ran their most responsible candidate ever and got less of a percentage of the vote than Nader did even though Romney was a much less compelling major party candidate than Gore.

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  9. scott — pretty good breakdown of the left – right strain of libertarian thought.
    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/libertarian-left/

    [update: this guy runs a blog and identifies as left-libertarian. i read it rarely, usual someone has linked him. http://bleedingheartlibertarians.com/%5D

    And I agree with JNC. but this is the great debate. if you spend any time in the comment section at reason, there’s a lot of debate over taking over the GOP vs. blazing away 3rd party. but mostly it’s just “i don’t even care anymore, stick a fork in it, freedom and individual rights lost.”

    the problems are that the GOP isn’t really receptive to our message. and even a credible candidate is going to have a tough go of it on 3rd party. i’d say you need to build up the L party or a co-opted R at the local level.

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    • nova:

      Thanks for the links. So it sounds to me that what distinguishes left-libertarians from traditional libertarians is not so much policy, but rather the anticipated consequences of the implementation of libertarian ideals. They think that corporate capitalism actually relies upon the interference of the state in markets, and they expect that removing government interference altogether will be a boon for traditionally left-leaning concerns – income inequality, workers rights, wages, etc.

      I think that traditional libertarians advocate for libertarian principles for their own sake, not to achieve any specific outcomes, and are willing to let the chips fall where they may as a result. But based on that link, it seems that left-libertarians advocate for the same libertarian principles as the best means of achieving particular social/economic goals, which are the same goals as those held by what we traditionally call the left.

      As an aside, I don’t think anyone here at ATiM fits that description.

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    • nova:

      i’d say you need to build up the L party or a co-opted R at the local level.

      I agree. The trouble with this is that as leftist inclinations gain more and more electoral traction, the local level becomes less relevant.

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  10. “markinaustin, on March 18, 2013 at 5:18 pm said:

    At some low wage point I see this as a slavery issue.”

    Missed this last night. I’ll let Ta-Nehisi Coates respond to this one:

    “In the main, it is not simply the thievery of their labor, the lack of civil rights, or even the floggings that compel them. It is their status as property, the utter inability to construct a secure family due to the threat of rape or sale. It is the making of “barbarous havoc” upon the household. The Underground Railroad springs not simply from the immorality of labor-theft, but from the immorality familiocide.

    This is one reason why comparison between “wage slavery” and the Southern slave society always fall down. The antebellum slave society took as its premise not just zero wages, but the perpetual destruction of the black family.”

    http://www.theatlantic.com/personal/archive/2012/10/slavery-is-a-love-song/264335/

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