Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1556.5 | 0.5 | 0.03% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2732.2 | -12.5 | -0.46% |
| Oil (WTI) | 93.69 | 0.7 | 0.71% |
| LIBOR | 0.28 | 0.000 | 0.00% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 82.27 | -0.334 | -0.40% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.04% | 0.01% | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 193.5 | 0.0 |
Markets are flattish this morning after a week of strong gains. The CPI came is a little higher than expected mainly due to higher gasoline prices. Since the Fed is pretty much solely focused on the unemployment rate, this is not going to be a market-moving number. Industrial production rose, while capacity utilization increased to 79.6%. Bonds and MBS are flat.
Chart: Capacity Utilization Rate:
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey reported that conditions for manufacturers in the NY area continued to improve modestly. The 4 month outlook showed increasing optimism. Input prices rose, while selling prices remained flat. The employment indices remained sluggish. Manufacturers indicated that they were increasingly willing to take on debt and for the first time since 2008, reported that they expected their cash holdings to decrease. Capital Expenditures have been in maintenance mode since the crisis, and this may portend a shift. As we have seen in the chart above, capacity utilization rates are approaching “normalcy,” which means that businesses are starting to plan capital expenditures for better days ahead. All in all, things are starting to line up for a normal expansion.
The Senate has released their report on the JP Morgan’s London Whale loss. “The Subcommittee’s investigation has determined that, over the course of the first quarter of 2012, JPMorgan Chase’s Chief Investment Office used its Synthetic Credit Portfolio (SCP) to engage in high risk derivatives trading; mismarked the SCP book to hide hundreds of millions of dollars of losses; disregarded multiple internal indicators of increasing risk; manipulated models, dodged OCC oversight; and misinformed investors, regulators, and the public about the nature of its risky derivatives trading.” The “misinformed” charge is a hefty one and will certainly be a focus at the hearing this afternoon. Separately, the Fed said it had found “weaknesses” in JP Morgan’s capital plans, which means JP Morgan won’t be able to pay any special dividends or conduct stock buybacks.
President Obama met with Republican leaders and offered them entitlement cuts: Chained CPI for Social Security and means-testing Medicare, but insisted they cough up new revenues. We’ll see if any grand bargain comes out of it.
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
Isn’t this a trillion dollars worth of debt monetization?
“The U.S. central bank looks set to keep buying $85 billion a month in mortgage and Treasury bonds in an effort to encourage investment and bolster a weak economic recovery.”
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE92E06320130315?irpc=932
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http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/nypd_nab_the_victim_lXiQhecmrcMWX01cMEJ5JJ
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Nova, Sorry I didn’t get to it until now… your “nab the victim” link.
SHEESH, YOU REALLY GOT TO BE KIDDING !
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Wasn’t it one (or more) of you guys who recommended “A Canticle for Leibowitz” to me? I’ve just started it.
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“A Canticle For Liebowitz” is excellent. So is “The Space Merchants” by Pohl and Kornbluth. There has also been some good science fiction written in the last half century. Brin, Gibson, Stephenson to name a few.
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Mark – New Steve Pearlstein piece up:
“Yes, raising the retirement age would be bad for the poor. No, that doesn’t mean it’s unfair.
Posted by Steven Pearlstein on March 15, 2013 at 2:38 pm”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/03/15/yes-raising-the-retirement-age-would-be-bad-for-the-poor-no-that-doesnt-mean-its-unfair/
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jnc:
From your Pearlstein link about raising the retirement age:
One reason poorer people die younger is that they have less access to quality health care. We can all agree this is unfair and morally unacceptable.
I don’t agree with this at all. Fairness and morality have nothing to do with it. It is simply a fact of existence that those who have more resources will have more access to more and better (fill in the blank) than those with fewer resources. It isn’t fair or unfair…it just is.
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This is worth a read as well:
“Is capitalism moral?
By Steven Pearlstein, Friday, March 15, 11:48 AM”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/is-capitalism-moral/2013/03/15/a9ed66d4-868b-11e2-999e-5f8e0410cb9d_story.html
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jnc:
Interesting read.
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Gah. Flight delay at DCA. Time to start drinking.
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NoVA: feel for you, man!
Neither of my flights yesterday was delayed much, but sometimes even 15 minutes is too much. Where are you going?
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2hr delay to CLE for a weekend with some of the college boys. One of us is a judge. Horrifying.
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Good link jnc. The perselen piece mentions that we haven’t banned private schools. There was a gawker piece that advocated exactly that. I’m on my phone or Id link it.
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nova:
Did you see the Irish uniforms for last night’s Big East game? Quite possible the worst unis in the history of college basketball.
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Nova, your icon is hosed, but that could be due to the phone connection.
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Test
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Oh yeah. Hideous.
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“Novahockey, on March 15, 2013 at 2:47 pm said:
Good link jnc. The perselen piece mentions that we haven’t banned private schools. There was a gawker piece that advocated exactly that. I’m on my phone or Id link it.”
Warren Buffett advocates the same thing.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/mehdi-hasan/warren-buffett-is-right-ban-private-schools_b_1857287.html
http://www.spotlightonpoverty.org/ExclusiveCommentary.aspx?id=f6886a5e-628e-411d-89a8-c8f9f0a73f4f
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jnc:
Warren Buffett advocates the same thing.
I didn’t know that. Now I have even less respect for him than before.
edit: I just read your two links on this and to be fair to Buffet, it is not clear to me that he actually advocates for banning private schools. He has just said that doing so, and then randomly assigning kids to schools, would “fix” the problems faced by inner city school. Whether or not he would actually support taking such steps is not clear, at least from the two articles you linked to. It might be sort of like suggesting that an “easy” way to get drivers to obey speed limits is to introduce capital punishment for road violations. Making the point doesn’t mean you’d actually support it as policy.
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I don’t see how that would improve the system. But I don’t think it’s a lack of resources that ails our schools
.
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Meaning were consinder a few different kindergatens. Enrolling nova jr. In the public school isn’t changing the system
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You know something went ary when you start thinking you’ll go from dca to cle and end up at a hotel airport at bwi. I totally beat the traffic only to be denied by the tsa. Missed the flight by 1 min.
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Thanx for the Pearlstein links, JNC.
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JNC – for you and Brent:
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/12812
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One reason that you might want to take Jeremy Grantham’s Malthusian doomsday predictions – and the policy prescriptions he advocates as a consequence – with a grain of salt.
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NoVA: Any luck on a flight yet?
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Yes, I always hate the use of “we” in these sorts of pieces.
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Maybe this is why the poor tend to die at a younger age:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mobileweb/stanton-peele/why-do-poor-people-smoke_b_627057.html
Excuse the PuffHo link.
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As the French say, “Fuck me!”
http://www.businessinsider.com/cyprus-bailout-deal-2013-3
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Thanks for linking that, Mark, I was just about to.
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Another piece on the Cyprus deal viewing it as invalidating deposit insurance.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/karlwhelan/2013/03/16/cyprus-depositor-tax-genius-plan-or-the-end-of-the-euro/
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Paging Paul Ehrlich, please pick up the white Doomsday phone 😉
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Scott, I do think it’s useful to note from the interview that if you accept the premise on the resource scarcity, then you should also accept the predictions of minimal GDP growth which renders all the budget plans based on Keynesian prescriptions invalid.
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jnc:
Scott, I do think it’s useful to note from the interview that if you accept the premise on the resource scarcity, then you should also accept the predictions of minimal GDP growth which renders all the budget plans based on Keynesian prescriptions invalid.
Good point. And of course if his desires about population are to be implemented, we’re going to have to re-think this whole Social Security thing, too.
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BTW, another interesting thing to note about Grantham’s doomsday talk, with regard to his discussion of oil price data. He makes much of the increase in oil prices over the last 10 years as a foreboding and drastic change in historical oil price trends. But a look at this inflation adjusted data on annual averages of crude oil prices doesn’t exactly support his portrayal of the last 10 years as ominously indicative of the future.
Over the last 10 years, crude oil has averaged $68.86 per barrel, and over the last 5 years, it has averaged $82.39. But in the 10 year period from 1977 to 1986, crude oil averaged $67.54 per barrel, and in the 5 year period from 1979 to 1984, it averaged $83.34. In all the years since the end of WWII, the highest average annual price for a barrel of oil came in 1980, at $104.49, and the lowest came in 1998, at $16.80.
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Here we go:
“Facing Bailout Tax, Cypriots Try to Get Cash Out of Banks
By LIZ ALDERMAN
Published: March 16, 2013
ATHENS — In a move that could set off new fears of contagion across the euro zone, anxious depositors lined up at cash machines on Saturday in Cyprus to withdraw money hours after European officials in Brussels required that part of a new 10 billion euro bailout must be paid for directly from the bank accounts of ordinary savers.”
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And the Republican politicians’ war on women continues:
Yes, I know many of you don’t like the term “War on Women”. You come up with a term that embodies what it feels like to have politicians decide that you don’t have the right or ability to judge for yourself what to do with your own body and I’ll adopt your tern instead. Until then, the war metaphor is as close as I can come to how it feels.
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Mich:
And the Republican politicians’ war on women continues:
I’ve tried to make it clear in the past that this term is objectionable. Now I am telling you directly, it’s offensive. Quit.
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Mich:
You come up with a term that embodies what it feels like to have politicians decide that you don’t have the right or ability to judge for yourself what to do with your own body…
Abortion laws have nothing to do with what you do with your own body. They are concerned with what you are doing with someone else’s body.
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You don’t have the right to sell your body for sex, sell your organs or sell yourself into slavery either.
Does that mean the State is “at War with Women (or men?). Can the State force a pregnant woman, who intends to bear her child, into taking prenatal vitamens? Incarcerate her to prevent her from injecting herself with heroin? Or prevent her from imbibing in excessive amounts of alcohol? What about smoking? Wearing a helmut or a seatbelt? What about suicide?
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McWing:
Note who was the sponsor of the bills: Bette Grande. I guess this particular offensive of the war could be characterized as woman on woman action.
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Self hating woman?
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Maybe just a traitor. Although given that 46% of women identify as pro-life while 44% identify as pro-choice, I wonder just which side represents the traitors.
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Worth watching. Good retrospective.
http://www.sho.com/sho/reality-docs/titles/3370771/the-world-according-to-dick-cheney#/index
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I’ve tried to make it clear in the past that this term is objectionable. Now I am telling you directly, it’s offensive. Quit.
Thank you for throwing my own words back in my face; I had a bet with myself that you would, and I hate to lose a bet, even when there is no money involved.
They are concerned with what you are doing with someone else’s body.
Bullshit. There is no “someone else” at that point. They are concerned with control; if Republican politicians were concerned with the weak and defenseless they wouldn’t be backing Paul Ryan’s budget.
McWing, I fail to see your point. And I find it interesting that you, a professed Libertarian who’s pro-choice, would decide to take the opposite side in this argument.
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Mich:
Thank you for throwing my own words back in my face
I think the other day I pretty much telegraphed that this would happen once you started in with this silly war on women business. At least I tried to.
There is no “someone else” at that point.
This is what you think, but it is most definitely not what those women who oppose abortion think. This is precisely the source of disagreement, your refusal to face it notwithstanding.
if Republican politicians were concerned with the weak and defenseless…
A complete non-sequitur.
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“But a look at this inflation adjusted data on annual averages of crude oil prices doesn’t exactly support his portrayal of the last 10 years as ominously indicative of the future.”
Yes, and there’s also an omission of the discussion of fracking and it’s impact on US domestic energy production, which definitely bolsters the anti-Malthusian arguments based on technology. Before that you had the North Sea in the 1980’s and of course you can make an argument that to the extent that OPEC drove oil prices it wasn’t about resource constraints but rather organized cartel pricing.
On the other hand, I don’t see how China’s growth doesn’t affect energy prices for the medium to long term.
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“They are concerned with what you are doing with someone else’s body.
Bullshit. There is no “someone else” at that point. They are concerned with control; if Republican politicians were concerned with the weak and defenseless they wouldn’t be backing Paul Ryan’s budget.
McWing, I fail to see your point. And I find it interesting that you, a professed Libertarian who’s pro-choice, would decide to take the opposite side in this argument.”
When it comes to the term “rights” there’s always the distinction between what one would view as ideal policy vs what the Constitution actually says and requires. I’d love it if the Constitution enshrined the right to do what you want as long as it doesn’t directly harm another person, but that’s not what it actually says, hence the upholding of state drug laws etc.
My own opinion is that unfettered access to safe, legal abortion is a good idea and good public policy that has nothing to do with the Constitution. And ultimately democratic legitimacy means recognizing that people who don’t agree with you get a vote too.
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Scott and McWing: Perhaps it should be a Republican politicians’ Civil War on Women.
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jnc:
And ultimately democratic legitimacy means recognizing that people who don’t agree with you get a vote too.
Yes. My beef is that states with Republican majorities and Republican governors are doing their level best to overthrow Roe v Wade. This series, which was on PBS, reminded me of how bad it was before Roe v Wade, and why people our age don’t understand how important it is that women are now able to get legal abortions.
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Mich:
My beef is that states with Republican majorities and Republican governors are doing their level best to overthrow Roe v Wade.
Roe v Wade should be overturned. Not only is it an atrociously a-constitutional ruling, but it alone is responsible for abortion remaining such a politically and judicially polarizing issue. And I say this as someone who would actually support legal abortion until the point of viability.
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The Economist on Cyprus.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/schumpeter/2013/03/cyprus-bail-out
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“You come up with a term that embodies what it feels like to have politicians decide that you don’t have the right or ability to judge for yourself what to do with your own body and I’ll adopt your tern instead.”
Here’s the precise term: General police powers reserved for the states.
“In United States constitutional law, police power is the capacity of the states to regulate behavior and enforce order within their territory for the betterment of the health, safety, morals, and general welfare of their inhabitants.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_power
The argument that those arguing for abortion as a Constitutional right need to make is why abortion should be a special carve out of behavior that the state can’t regulate, since the default assumption is that almost all behavior can be regulated at the state level.
As a side issue, using the same theory as the Obama administration used for urging the upholding of the individual mandate in the PPACA, you can also construct an argument that Federal laws prohibiting or restricting abortion are also permissible under an expansive reading of the Commerce Clause.
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jnc:
since the default assumption is that almost all behavior can be regulated at the state level.
Lovely.
Scott:
And I say this as someone who would actually support legal abortion until the point of viability.
You may not have noticed, but I keep using the phrase “Republican politicians” when referring to people who want what I now know is properly termed a police state. You get to decide whether or not to vote for them.
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Mich:
You may not have noticed, but I keep using the phrase “Republican politicians” when referring to people who want what I now know is properly termed a police state.
Actually it is termed “police powers” reserved to the states. A “police state” means something entirely different. But that aside, the problem is that your reference to “Republican politicians” implies that Democratic politicians do not want those same police powers, when of course they do. They would simply exercise them to achieve different ends.
I think it is fair to say that you don’t actually object to the exercise of such power in principle. You just object to the exercise of such power as it regards this single issue of abortion.
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“Bullshit. There is no “someone else” at that point. They are concerned with control;”
It may be about control, that’s the way I see a desire for Universal Health Care and Obamacare, the power to decide who gets what treatment. I find that motivation contemptuous.
However, at what precise point does it become Somebody Else?
I beleive that life begins at conception as I think that there is no other logical place to put it. That being said, a fetus is not the same as an infant nor is an infant the same as an 18 year old. Rights enure at different points, even the right to life. Others think that the right to life begins at conception. I understand that others hold that belief, I do not. I do believe that the overwhelming majority of those that believe that the right to life begins at conception believe that sincerely, in good faith if you will. Do share my opinion?
Finally, there is nothing wrong with wanting to overturn a Supreme Court decision. Ask DiFi about Heller, or Justice Thomas about Dredd Scott.
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However, at what precise point does it become Somebody Else?
When the child can survive outside the womb without heroic measures.
I do believe that the overwhelming majority of those that believe that the right to life begins at conception believe that sincerely, in good faith if you will. Do share my opinion?
No. The few people I know who hold this belief firmly have a political agenda, and it has nothing to do with the child involved but rather with the morals of the mother.
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Mich:
No. The few people I know who hold this belief firmly have a political agenda, and it has nothing to do with the child involved but rather with the morals of the mother.
What do you suppose such people think links the morality of the mother with the abortion she gets? Why would they think it is immoral to get an abortion, if not because they think the object of the abortion has a right to life?
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You just object to the exercise of such power as it regards this single issue of abortion.
Oh, I object to it on all sorts of issues (I voted for Gary Johnson this time, remember?) but abortion is the most obvious and most commonly pushed issue by Republican politicians in order to avoid dealing with the economy (or deflect attention from it). And really, Republicans just don’t seem to like women very much. Have you seen the <a href=”http://jezebel.com/5990299/dont-get-caught-in-uggs-leggings-or-rompers-at-cpac">CPAC dress rules? They remind me of my college days when I was in a Christian cult for a while. It was always the women’s role to avoid tempting the men with lascivious dress of any sort.
Sorry for the link, I can’t figure out what I’m getting wrong in the formatting
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Mich:
Oh, I object to it on all sorts of issues…
But you embrace it on all sorts of other issues. This is why I said that you do not object to the exercise of such power in principle. Indeed, you not only embrace it on certain issues, you want to elevate it from a power of states to a power of the federal government. See, for example, Obamacare.
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My take on the dress rules was that it was an attempt to remind the jeans and T-Shirt blogger crowd that they could end up on TV at some point. There’s a section for men as well in the full poster.
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jnc:
There’s a section for men as well in the full poster.
A conservative war on men?!?!?!
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Scott:
More along the lines of no proper woman enjoys sex, and therefore sex is only for procreation. Yes, people who believe that still exist.
jnc:
Well, see, that’s what I get for only reading liberal blogs–I missed the full dress code poster. Although I wonder if they’re worried that the jeans and t-shirt crowd might not hew to the party line?
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Mich:
More along the lines of no proper woman enjoys sex, and therefore sex is only for procreation. Yes, people who believe that still exist.
I’m sure they do, but I think you are fooling yourself if you actually think this is what is motivating most people who oppose abortion.
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you want to elevate it from a power of states to a power of the federal government
Yes, because I think that there are some things that should be a right no matter what state you’re living in. Healthcare is one of them; the fact that you’re in Connecticut and I’m in Utah should have no bearing on the healthcare either of us is eligible for. I haven’t yet decided whether health falls under “liberty” or “the pursuit of happiness”, but it is a right which shouldn’t be restricted by state lines.
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Mich:
Yes, because…
My point is made. You do not oppose these powers in principle. So to demonize Republicans on the generic grounds that they dare to exercise the power is hypocritical.
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“jnc:
Well, see, that’s what I get for only reading liberal blogs–I missed the full dress code poster. Although I wonder if they’re worried that the jeans and t-shirt crowd might not hew to the party line?”
You can see the full poster if you scroll down on the jezebel site. It shows khakis for men, button down shirts, etc.
I still go with the simplest explanation that this is all about how it will look on TV, since they are allowing live coverage.
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A conservative war on men?!?!?!
Only if they start mandating an annual prostate exam. . .
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“I haven’t yet decided whether health falls under “liberty” or “the pursuit of happiness”, but it is a right which shouldn’t be restricted by state lines.”
It’s neither. Healthcare and insurance are services provided by others.
This goes to the whole positive vs negative version of rights.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two_Concepts_of_Liberty
Click to access Berlin_twoconceptsofliberty.pdf
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I still go with the simplest explanation that this is all about how it will look on TV, since they are allowing live coverage.
I think you’re more than likely right, but I also think that they’d be smarter to let the jeans and t-shirts folks wear them. As it is, they’re just trying to reassure the old folks that things haven’t changed. . . .while telegraphing to the young folks that things haven’t changed. If they’re trying to do outreach they need to change their message to say “We’re changing with the times–come be part of the change!”
But that last sentence is a lot of change. . ..
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Scott, this may be of interest to you as I believe you linked the prayer breakfast video previously.
“Ben Carson announces retirement, feeds presidential speculation
Posted by Aaron Blake on March 16, 2013 at 11:45 am”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/03/16/ben-carson-lets-say-you-magically-put-me-in-the-white-house/?tid=pm_pop
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but I think you are fooling yourself if you actually think this is what is motivating most people who oppose abortion.
I don’t know very many people who oppose abortion (look at this group, for example). The ones I know who do oppose it because the woman shouldn’t have had sex. Period.
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Michi, someone at CPAC didn’t get the dress code memo, and it wasn’t a woman:
“Under the heading Extremely Shallow Points That Nonetheless Perhaps Should Be Made:
Rand Paul, for his striking speech, marched onto the stage in a suit jacket, tie and jeans. I wear jeans and you wear jeans and it’s not unusual for a man to wear jeans with a tie and jacket. They look like happy farmers, or cable TV anchors whose desks don’t show their legs. That being said, could we not wear grown-up suits when we are running for high office? ”
http://blogs.wsj.com/peggynoonan/
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On the CPAC “Don’t” List, only two things were directed at men, tee shirts and athletic shoes, and both of those aren’t gender specific. The rest of the items were female only and some of those seemed rather obvious. I’m not even sure when the last time I saw a grown woman in a romper.
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in a suit jacket, tie and jeans.
Ack!!!! Jeans–good. Suit and tie–good. Mixing the two, very very bad!
Looks like a guy who can’t decide where he’s going. For once in my life I agree with Peggy. Eek!! 🙂
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So what? The jeans restrictions are also directed at men and in general defining professional dress for women is more complicated than for men. For men it’s wear a suit or business casual (i.e. khakis & button down shirts). There’s a much larger variation for women.
Saying that attendees have to dress professionally isn’t sexist.
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Michi, also note her final comment:
“And by the way, Hillary Clinton? She dresses like a grownup.”
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I’m not even sure when the last time I saw a grown woman in a romper.
Thank goodness–I thought I was the only one. I had to look “romper” up on google.
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in general defining professional dress for women is more complicated than for men.
Very much yes. I’ve taken to wearing skirts this last year just because, and it’s considered daring.
Go figure.
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The worst example I can think of is believing that wearing flip flops in a law office when one has to meet with clients is appropriate. And then debating whether or not a prohibition on flip flops also applies to “dressy” flip flops.
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Saying that attendees have to dress professionally isn’t sexist.
I’m not sure I’d go that far either. All the suggestion in the Do List seemed sensible and reasonable. I just couldn’t figure out who the Don’t List was aimed at. Are there really that many flashy Young Republicans who will mistake CPAC for a sorority mixer?
Professional dress for women has always been a minefield. I first started working in the Working Girl era where skirt suits and giant floppy silk bowties were the standard. Somewhere along the way, pantyhose seems to have the dustbin. And I used to think sweater twinsets were rather casual until I priced them as a gift once.
As for jeans, women can pull that off much easier than men. Nobody is going to call out a slim woman in tight dressy jeans. And yes, that is sexist.
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“Are there really that many flashy Young Republicans who will mistake CPAC for a sorority mixer?”
The general approach of the rule writers for things such as this is to leave nothing to chance and assume that no one has common sense because if you don’t someone will always slip through and say well, it wasn’t on the list.
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Get yourself a brand new scene,
Keep your collars white and clean,
It’s time to come and join the young conservatives.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_OO0eTYod9M
Sarah Palin gave the College Republicans a shout-out and told them they should be thinking Sam Adams not drinking Sam Adams.
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jnc, I can do you one better. My former husband used to have to explain to interns each year that, when they crouched down in front of patients, everyone could see what color thongs they were wearing.
He hated that day. . .
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“The worst example I can think of is believing that wearing flip flops in a law office when one has to meet with clients is appropriate”
flips flops are the one area where I become a tyrant. gym showers and beach/pool use only. beyond that, they should be banned. removed from people’s homes and cast into the fires of mount doom.
they provide no support, should you need to run.
they make that awful clacking sound.
they get caught in escalators
they slip off and people go barefoot.
i could go on .
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