Morning Report – CT Hoarders Tax. Really?

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Stock markets are weaker this morning after disappointing economic data out of Asia and Europe. Consumer spending grew .2% in January, the first post tax-hike reading on consumption. Bonds continue to rally, and MBS are flat.

Today is sequester day. For mortgage originators, that means cuts at HUD could affect you. FWIW, I met with several HUD people last week who told me that the sequester will not affect them at all.  They have increased their headcount by something like 30% over the past couple of years and are slotted to grow that number another 20%.  They aren’t worried.  

That said, Shaun Donovan is warning that the sequestration cuts could lower the availability of FHA loans. Given that the refi boom is probably over, FHA mortgages will probably drop anyway, which means that even if capacity drops a little, demand is probably going to drop more, which will offset the effects of the sequester.

It turns out that JP Morgan’s announcement of 13000 layoffs in the mortgage division is not concentrated in origination, it is in workouts.  As the number of delinquencies decline, less resources are needed to handle mods and defaults. 

Richard Cordray spoke to the Credit Union National Association regarding the Qualified Mortgage Rule and other issues. He urged lenders to extend more credit, saying that they are “leaving money on the table” by not lending to “low risk borrowers who want to refinance.”  He also urged banks not to concentrate solely on lending to QM borrowers.  Of course QM doesn’t really provide all that much protection, and the banks know that the CFPB is also working hard to elongate foreclosure timelines. Such is the cognitive dissonance of the CFPB – they want the banks to lend, while at the same time raising their costs if the loan goes bad. 

One of FDR’s worst ideas was the undistributed profits tax, which taxed retained earnings in an effort to get businesses to hire and pay dividends.  This was controversial even in FDRs administration and certainly played a big role in the 1937 “depression within a depression.”  Well guess what, it is back, at least in the state of Connecticut, which is considering a bill (called a “hoarders tax”) that would try and force CT-based corporations to use their retained earnings to hire people or pay a tax. Of course the details haven’t been filled in and it is one of those bills that is meant to make a point, but still… If I am a new business considering where to locate, I would think hard about scratching CT off my list. 

80 Responses

  1. “One of FDR’s worst ideas was the undistributed profits tax, which taxed retained earnings in an effort to get businesses to hire and pay dividends. ”

    How is this different from the existing Accumulated Earnings Tax?

    http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/accumulatedearningstax.asp

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  2. pretty much the same thing..

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    • He urged lenders to extend more credit, saying that they are “leaving money on the table” by not lending to “low risk borrowers who want to refinance.”

      how so? the only reason i couldn’t refi is a BS appraisal. is that what he’s getting at?

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  3. Victory is in sight for the Republicans on the sequester and the FY2013 CR fight if they are willing to accept it.

    “Senate Democrats Not Ready to Risk Shutdown

    By Steven T. Dennis
    Roll Call Staff
    Feb. 28, 2013, 7:46 p.m.

    Senate Democrats aren’t planning a shutdown showdown with Republicans over the sequester, as they prepare to move forward with an omnibus package keeping the government open past March 27, according to three senior Democratic aides.”

    http://www.rollcall.com/news/senate_democrats_not_ready_to_risk_shutdown-222760-1.html?pos=htmbtxt

    All Boehner and the Republicans have to do to win this fight is to pass a FY2013 CR at the post sequester levels that either reallocates some of the cuts directly or gives the administration the authority to do so. To further entice the Democrats, they should link another hike in the debt ceiling to cover the rest of 2013 at the post sequester spending levels to take the debt ceiling off the table for the rest of the year. At that point they should declare victory and move on to the 2014 budget.

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  4. “how so? the only reason i couldn’t refi is a BS appraisal. is that what he’s getting at?”

    I think he wants to see more loans that aren’t Fannie / Fred / FHA / VA. Problem is that isn’t going to occur in any real amount until the private label securitization market comes back. And there are major unresolved issues with Dodd Frank that is preventing that from happening..

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    • Totally off topic….I am in the market for a new flat screen TV. Looking for roughly 50″ size. I have no clue about plasma vs LED, whether the 3D is worth it, which brand, etc. Basically I am the perfect mark for a sleazy used car, er, TV salesman. All I want is a really good picture and longevity. For the best price, obviously. Anyone here got any advice?

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      • You need reliability, detail, color, sound. EZ. All the major brands including price leader Vizio have that.

        Do you want a wide viewing angle? Even within brands, there is great variation. It is the strength of plasma. Its weakness is current draw.

        Do you want portability? Movability? If so, don’t even think about a rear projection setup.

        3D is for monster movies on blue ray until all sports are broadcast in compatible 3D. Skip it this time. The glasses alone are a pain to keep track of.

        You probably want an internet capable TV – I think all of the ones you look at will be. You want inputs for at least your BlueRay and your laptop and outputs to your sound system. Even good TV sound is only OK. If you watch movies on it in your den you want external amplification and speakers, but if you have a good stereo system that you can jack into you will only miss the lack of surround sound after you have heard it on the same movie. In other words, if you never get surround sound it will be like – never having anything else. You can’t miss it if you never had it.

        Consumer Reports is a good reference for model comparisons.

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        • Mark…Thanks. I actually have a movie room in my basement, with the whole works…90+ screen, surround sound, totally enclosed, dark space with no windows. So I am all set for the real movie experience. What I need now is the everyday TV for the family room. Something I can watch ESPN on when the kids are watching a movie (or something they can watch when I am in the movie room watching the Final Four!) So not really looking for all the bells and whistles. Just a good quality picture for relatively low price, that is going to last. The last time I bought was 6 years ago, and it blew up on me two weeks ago. I’m thinking I can get a much better TV for a much cheaper price than then. But I’m not going whole hog…already did that in the basement.

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  5. Scott… I have owned both a plasma and an LED. Both my husband and I overwhelmingly prefer the HD LED over the plasma. Neither of us have even looked at a 3D so I have no input to your for those.

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  6. Scott. http://reviews.cnet.com/tv-buying-guide/

    I’d pass on the 3D. but that’s just me. don’t think it’s worth the extra cost, which can be significant.

    where i disagree with the guide i linked it the smart TV aspect. I have a mac mini hooked up to my 6 year old LCD — and having something integrated would make things a little easier at the cost of customization. where you fall on that spectrum is personal. it’s a chore to explain to my parents how to use my setup. YMMV.

    FWIW, i think the next time i buy a TV i’m just going to go to Costco, find the biggest one that fits my space, make sure it has 3+ HDMI inputs, is a brand name, pick on price and call it day.

    [update: i like more HDMI inputs b/c i’ve got multiple game consoles + blu ray]

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    • Geanie;

      Thanks

      nova:

      FWIW, i think the next time i buy a TV i’m just going to go to Costco, find the biggest one that fits my space, make sure it has 3+ HDMI inputs, is a brand name, pick on price and call it day.

      That is exactly what I have been thinking about doing, but I know so little about it I am worried about doing something stupid.

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  7. I spent weeks and months researching the TV we have now. total waste of time.
    i like the tv, it’s great. it now worth about half what we paid, but that’s normal. but at the end of the day, it’s not any better/worse than most. (40 inch samsung lcd 1080p) the mistake i made at the time was getting a 40 inch vs. 50 inch. the guy told me that nobody returns a tv b/c it’s too small. but the 40inch fit our space and budget at the time. if I had a do-over, i would have made that 50 inch work.

    the real difference comes if you want to spent tens of thousands for a custom media room.

    i was in costco about a month ago. and the prices were enough to almost get me to impulse by one. i’d see what they offer locally, google the model numbers to find any known flaws/problems. i saved myself a repair cost doing that — the capacitors blew in my LCD and by knowing it was a problem (random purple lines across the screen) i was able to get them to fix it for free. i just kept saying “capacitor” on the the 800-line until they sent a tech.

    the other thing — i’d spend the cash to upgrade audio if applicable. seems a lot of people buy a great tv and hook it to a crap stereo. that’s a project for me.

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  8. I’ve been afraid to look, has anyone in D.C. resorted to cannibalism yet? Who runs Bartertown?

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  9. A maryland-based regular at reason and I have agreed to divide the city. it’s into today’s morning links. i’d link to it, but .. well, the regulars there are irregular.

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  10. “ScottC, on March 1, 2013 at 11:49 am said:

    Totally off topic….I am in the market for a new flat screen TV. Looking for roughly 50″ size. I have no clue about plasma vs LED, whether the 3D is worth it, which brand, etc. Basically I am the perfect mark for a sleazy used car, er, TV salesman. All I want is a really good picture and longevity. For the best price, obviously. Anyone here got any advice?”

    Rear projection provides the best value in terms of size to dollar and has a more film like appearance for movies.

    92″ = $5,500

    73″ = 1,500

    http://www.walmart.com/ip/Mitsubishi-73-Class-3D-DLP-1080p-HDTV-WD-73640/16775716

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  11. I’d recommend Samsung or Sony Bravo, depending on your personal picture preference.

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  12. I bet the blow flies in Washington are just awful.

    Scott, try a Sony LED with a 240 Hz refresh rate. You’ll get a good picture and moderate cost. I have a Sony Bravia 46″ I got at Best Buy a couple of years ago and it’s a great picture.

    And yes, I wish I would have gotten with the 52″.

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    • Sony sells, but no longer manufactures, LCDs. I think Sonys have LG screens now. Two years ago they had Samsung screens.

      Sharp either has stopped, or will stop, making its own screens. I think Toshiba still makes its own, but not in Japan.

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      • All:

        Thanks for the TV advice yesterday. If anyone is interested, I settled on a 51 inch Samsung plasma, 7000 series, smart TV. I have a space issue and couldn’t go bigger. I went to a couple places and the best price i found was $950. If I paid way too much, don’t tell me.

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  13. Somebody has been interfering with jnc’s work on the President.

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  14. Scott:

    I think you’re over-thinking the TV thing, given that you’ve already got your dream theater set-up.

    Go to Costco and buy the one that looks the best to you.

    What a guy problem. . . 🙂

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  15. “What a guy problem. . . “

    That’s not funny, this is some serious shit!

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  16. Well, as the resident girl, I try to help you guys keep things in perspective.

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    • We have a 37″ Vizio HD LED in our master. Love the brilliant picture and the sound is located across the bottom in the front, not on the side or top or rear, sounds awesome. We have a 47″ (want a 52) Sharp in the living. While the Sharp still has a great picture on it, we both think the Vizio is just the best. And the Sharp has the volume across the bottom front as well. Both have all the connections anyone would ever need.

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  17. This is too funny not to repost here:

    “Fed Official Says Fed Bond Is Buying Not Distorting Markets – Wall Street Journal”

    “sold2u Says sold2u does not drink too much beer – sold2u”

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    • Public apology for the gratuitous scare to the janitors to follow:

      crickets

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    • JNC, I think the CR games out like this.

      1] Boehner tells his caucus he wants CR at sequestration level with Cabinet authority to move funds within broad categories.

      2] Some of his critters rebel fearing that D Admin will move funds from their CDs.

      3A] CR funding at sequestration levels is passed with no Cabinet authority to move funds; or
      3B] CR funding gets tweaked [upward] by powerful members of the R caucus in the rough equivalent of the previous “earmarking”.

      4] Senate bill will have baseline sequestration budget except for DoD, which will be tweaked up substantially, and a few other tweaks up – probably federal courthouse/US Attorney expenses, maybe Head Start.

      5] The final bill submitted to the POTUS will retain more than half of the sequestration cuts but no more than 90% of them, and will not give the Admin discretionary authority beyond the norm, and will not address revenue or entitlements, which will be left for another day, perhaps not this year. The Debt Ceiling will be increased. We will have stability for several months.

      What is your scenario?

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  18. I have a feeling that when it comes to the CR at the end of the month and for the 2014 budget the mantra wil be that we’ve absolutely cut to the bone. Only alternative is to raise taxes. This hysteria over this pathetic, trivial reduction in the rate of increase in government spending (that has grown by what, double digits every years since ’08?) is about battlefield prep.

    We’re doomed.

    Are tumbleweeds blowing down Pennslyvania Avenue?

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    • George, there are three issues that I have with that study.

      1] Individual HS studies from consistently good programs [Austin, Chicago, Denver] show lasting results; in part because they

      2] kept the kids for 2 years, which most programs don’t do; and

      3] even bad programs show significant gains while the kids are in HS, according to the study – which leads to the conclusion that there is a failure in the elementary school, not in HS.

      The study should follow up on what happens in elementary school to these kids. HS proponents have a theory that has not been tested – the schools have low expectations for the poor kids which rub off on them in two or three years of elementary school.

      Wouldn’t you think a study that showed HS kids significantly better prepped out of HS as this one does would want to look at what happened to knock those kids back down?

      Worst case scenario, IMO, would be bad parenting – overcome in HS but not in elementary school.

      If that is the case, it would be another reason the Austin model works: it has selected kids based on parent willingness to stay involved. Bad parent or guardian involvement and the kid is the victim two ways, b/c her spot in HS will go to someone else.

      I respect the idea that HS should not be a federal program, btw. But not for the reason that it fails to reach into the elementary school. If HS methods were carried over into the elementary school, that would produce better results for all, IMHO.

      ______
      But what is your scenario for how the next month plays out?

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  19. Mark, I still believe the full post sequester cuts will be maintained through FY2013. Remember the larger cuts are back loaded into FY2014 and the future (as per usual).

    The shift authority to Obama proposal is dead after the Senate vote. The Republicans will reallocate the cuts themselves. What everyone is forgetting is that the Republicans don’t have to actually do the detailed cuts initially. Obama’s OMB office has to issue the actual specific cuts this week, then they can tinker with them after the fact.

    The fact that Boehner claimed that he was going to move the CR in two weeks indicates to me that he’s gotten the caucus to back him and I believe that they are more unified. The more irritated Obama appears in public about the sequester, the higher Boehner’s approval goes with the Tea Party caucus. The Democrats in the Senate and the President are already pre-caving in terms of sticking with whatever passes at the BCA levels.

    Now, after the debacle that was the Plan B vote during the Fiscal Cliff, nothing is assured. If it ends up that he can’t move the CR without Democratic votes, then the whole thing falls apart and it will be a complete cave. I don’t think they are sophisticated enough to be able to pick off one or two blue dogs with some concessions on reallocation.

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  20. “If that is the case, it would be another reason the Austin model works: it has selected kids based on parent willingness to stay involved. Bad parent or guardian involvement and the kid is the victim two ways, b/c her spot in HS will go to someone else.”

    It’s essentially impossible for me not to think that it all boils down to parenting. Any sort of Federal involvement is probably going to show an improvement in those kids whose parents are involved. I suspect that those kids would be OK without Federal involvement, so why spend the money? Further, why not end the program, and let the states deal with education? Why is there any Federal involvement in education anyway?

    As far as the END OF LIFE AS WE KNOW IT BECAUSE WE BARELY CUT THE RATE OF INCREASE IN THE GROWTH OF FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, I see the R’s eventually caving because they are doing the voters bidding, which is to tame the wilder impulses of the left and be a caretaker of the welfare state. Spending growth will return to elevated levels of growth after some kabuki.

    I’ve said before that we’re doomed and I still believe it. I enjoy the partisanship games because their fun and have a “my team” feel to it. But at the end of the day, we’ve destroyed any future there is. Each generation will have it worse than the previous (starting with the second half of the baby boomers). The Feds are only $100 billion below ’07 peak revenue and we still have over a $1 trillion deficit. We have a debt to GDP ration in the 80 percent range and no ability to reduce spending or raise taxes to the point of exceeding the budget to pay down debt. We are doomed.

    What can’t go on forever, won’t. What comes after will suck.

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  21. I believe that even 5 years ago that same TV would have run over $5000, so it’s hard to say you paid too much. Consider how much each of our Internet connections would have cost in the 1990’s for the same amount of bandwidth.

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  22. Sounds to me like you got a good deal, Scott. Enjoy!

    Although I’m not sure that anything can make “Say Yes to the Dress” any less painful. 🙂

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  23. “The study should follow up on what happens in elementary school to these kids. ”

    One theory is that poor nutrition is a significant negative influence on school performance.

    http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/social_issues/jan-june13/table_03-01.html

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    • Yes, Brian, that could be a key in many places. Austin HS focuses on the working poor so I know it helps keep people working rather than staying home on the dole. However, HS serves two meals a day. That beats the school district’s one meal a day. And that could be a difference maker for those who are not poor enough for the food program.

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  24. “The fact that Boehner claimed that he was going to move the CR in two weeks indicates to me that he’s gotten the caucus to back him and I believe that they are more unified.”

    That’s optimistic. For the VAWA vote this week, the house couldn’t pass their own bill, so took up the senate version, which passed the house with mostly Dem votes.

    “More Republicans opposed the bill than supported it — the third time since December that House Speaker John A. Boehner (Ohio) has allowed legislation to move off the floor that did not have the support of a majority of his divided members.”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/violence-against-women-act-passed-by-house-sent-to-obama-for-signature/2013/02/28/c540f058-81b4-11e2-b99e-6baf4ebe42df_story.html?wpisrc=al_politics_p

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  25. Well, yes. But in the case of the sequester the Tea Party supports the cuts.

    “While the frustrations of Congressional Democrats and Mr. Obama with Mr. Boehner are reaching a fever pitch, House Republicans could not be more pleased with their leader.

    “We asked him to commit to us that when the cuts actually came on March 1, that he would stand firm and not give in, and he’s holding to that,” said Representative Steve Scalise, Republican of Louisiana and chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee. “I think Friday will be an important day that shows we’re finally willing to stand and fight for conservative principles and force Washington to start living within its means. And that will be a big victory.”

    Representative Mick Mulvaney, a South Carolina Republican who was elected on the 2010 Tea Party wave and has had his differences with the speaker, was similarly complimentary toward Mr. Boehner.

    “He’s doing exactly what he said he was going to do, and I think it’s working to our favor and to his,” Mr. Mulvaney said. “I get the feeling that our party is probably more unified right now than it has been at any time in the last several months.” ”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/01/us/politics/house-republicans-cheer-boehners-refusal-to-negotiate-on-cuts.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

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  26. “But in the case of the sequester the Tea Party supports the cuts.”

    It remains to be seen whether anything the ‘tea party’ supports can both pass in the Senate and be signed by POTUS.

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    • bsimon:

      It remains to be seen whether anything the ‘tea party’ supports can both pass in the Senate and be signed by POTUS.

      The sequester already passed the Senate and was signed by the POTUS.

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  27. I beleive that the R’s will cave, but remember, the sequester stays put unless there is pro-active legislation to undo it.

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  28. I thought that this was an interesting read over at Wonkblog

    This has prompted some wondering aloud, and it has given rise to perhaps the most interesting new story you hear from economists: Um, there’s a lot we don’t know about the economy. All sorts of changes are disrupting the traditional forecasting models. Baby boomers are leaving the labor force; the rate of women entering it has plateaued. New technologies are changing how we think about work. One big story of the next few years will be how much all of this changes economists’ predictions.

    When you miss so regularly on your forecasts, Altig says, “it’s easy to think we have to rethink everything we think we know.” But, he adds, “You can be wrong for a very long period of time and still have the underlying structure and story about the economy correct. That’s not crazy. I guess that’s where I would be right now. It’s not like you have to throw out how you think about these things. You just have to have the same humility you always have.”

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  29. Our DLP set gave up the ghost after six years of service. I replaced the bulb (an easy operation) and it still didn’t work. Turns out the color wheel also goes out eventually and replacing that is a major operation. With the prospect of spending $100+ and undertaking a major project without any guarantee of success, it was time for a new TV.

    We settled on a 46″ LED-backlit 1080p set from Samsung. It doesn’t have any of the fancy internet on this year’s products, but I don’t want that from my TV (and our Bluray player handles Netflix and Hulu+). I will say, the picture is stunning, even on regular DVDs. It took a bit of getting used to the perspective. Not bad for less than $800.

    Just saw the rest of the discussion. Plasma is cheaper for big than LCD, so it makes sense. We have a Vizio for our secondary TV. I like it, but prefer the Samsung. On the other hand, their remotes are crap. We bought a Bluray player and a TV within six months of each other. The Bluray remote can be used to turn the TV on and off and adjust volume, but not channels. Sheesh. It would have taken two buttons. The TV remote barely acknowledges the Bluray player. Both have a dozen buttons that I’ll never use, though.

    ∂ß

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  30. “Troll McWingnut or George, whichever, on March 2, 2013 at 9:23 pm said:

    I beleive that the R’s will cave, but remember, the sequester stays put unless there is pro-active legislation to undo it.”

    If the sequester stays in place, what does a “cave” look like?

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  31. The NYT channels Brent:

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  32. J, the R’s will replace the current sequester cuts with future cuts, as in restoring funding levels and back-ending cuts, putting them in the out years. My guess is the CR will do this.

    As I said, Doom.

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  33. “R’s will replace the current sequester cuts with future cuts, as in restoring funding levels and back-ending cuts, putting them in the out years. My guess is the CR will do this… Doom”

    Or, if the economy continues growing, smart. Assuming a growing economy means 1) workforce growth and 2) reduction in unemployment, which combine to increase fed revenue & lower expenses. Voila! Deficit reduction! If your fed spending stays constant, in terms of dollars, while the economy grows – Voila! Shrinking government, as a share of GDP. What’s not to like?

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  34. “If your fed spending stays constant, in terms of dollars”

    This scenario bears no resemblance to past experience, or any proposal currently on the table.

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  35. Also, this assumption:

    “Assuming a growing economy means 1) workforce growth and 2) reduction in unemployment,”

    no longer holds. See “Jobless recovery”.

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  36. “See “Jobless recovery”.”

    Huh?

    Payrolls probably grew in February, showing U.S. employers were looking beyond the budget impasse in Washington as sales improved, economists said before reports this week.
    Another 160,000 workers were hired last month after employment rose by 157,000 in January, according to the median forecast of 70 economists surveyed by Bloomberg before a March 8 Labor Department report. The jobless rate held at 7.9 percent, the survey showed.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-03/payrolls-in-u-s-probably-increased-amid-budget-impasse.html

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  37. GDP growth no longer automatically translates into unemployment declines. The lag in unemployment dropping has gotten longer in every recession since 1980 as a result of productivity gains.

    See this chart and note the lengthening lag cycles.

    http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/03/comparing-recessions-and-recoveries-job-changes-4/

    Regardless, the main point I would make is you have to budget for the economy you have, not the one you might wish to have.

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  38. The NYT channels Brent:

    7 of the 10 richest counties in the US surround DC. Ground zero of the government bubble

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  39. If your fed spending stays constant, in terms of dollars, while the economy grows – Voila! Shrinking government, as a share of GDP. What’s not to like?

    Never going to happen. Entitlements are going to crowd out everything else..

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  40. “Never going to happen. Entitlements are going to crowd out everything else..”

    And what does the sequester not touch?

    Yet the myopic tea partiers celebrate the sequester cuts as though they amount to something other than a hill of beans.

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    • bsimon:

      Yet the myopic tea partiers celebrate the sequester cuts as though they amount to something other than a hill of beans.

      With Obama as president and the Senate controlled by Dems, I think even small cuts do amount to more than just a hill of beans.

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  41. “Yet the myopic tea partiers celebrate the sequester cuts as though they amount to something other than a hill of beans.”

    And the President argues that they will unleash economic Armageddon.

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  42. “Yet the myopic tea partiers celebrate the sequester cuts as though they amount to something other than a hill of beans.”

    Here sir!

    Why are Tea Partyer’s myopic? First, very few that I know (well, none actually) view this as anything other than a pathetic start. Second, many Tea Partyer’s view, or understand the government to be on a trajectory that is not sustainable, as do many Liberals. Our solutions are different, (TP’ers vs. Liberals) so couldn’t I say that liberal are myopic for being hysterical at the slight decrease in the rate of government growth?

    Do you think that a preference for less government is immoral as well as wrong?

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  43. Yet the myopic tea partiers celebrate the sequester cuts as though they amount to something other than a hill of beans.

    If we can re-set the baselines to pre-stimulus levels then that is a win.. Of course obama is pulling out all of the stops trying to characterize it as devastating..

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  44. “Do you think that a preference for less government is immoral as well as wrong?”

    I think responding to artificial constructs like yours is a waste of time.

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    • bsimon:

      I think responding to artificial constructs like yours is a waste of time.

      What “artificial construct”?

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  45. “If we can re-set the baselines to pre-stimulus levels then that is a win.. Of course obama is pulling out all of the stops trying to characterize it as devastating..”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/files/2013/02/parfait.jpg

    Resetting the baseline to prestimulus levels has a limited effect on the size of government, for those who are concerned with such; and a tiny effect on the debt. Given that Medicare growth far outpaces growth in the size of the discretionary budget, I used myopic to describe celebrating the sequester that leaves entitlement spending untouched.

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  46. “Given that Medicare growth far outpaces growth in the size of the discretionary budget, I used myopic to describe celebrating the sequester that leaves entitlement spending untouched.”

    It’s being done piecemeal instead of as a single deal.

    The fiscal cliff deal resolved the marginal rates debate, but there were no spending cuts.

    The sequester took care of the contributions from domestic discretionary and defense spending, but there was no additional revenue.

    The next deal will address entitlements and more revenue from eliminating loopholes.

    In that context, the sequester was a win for Republicans because they didn’t give up any new revenue to offset existing spending cuts, but instead kept those bargaining chips in reserve for a future entitlement deal that will conform to the President’s stated ratio of $2.5 in cuts for each $1 in new revenue.

    Also, the bill that the Democrats introduced in the Senate to offset the sequester had no cuts to entitlements, so using the lack thereof as a reason to argue that the tea party is myopic is misplaced.

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  47. I used myopic to describe celebrating the sequester that leaves entitlement spending untouched.

    I would be all for touching entitlement spending, although I believe this president is only interested in symbolic cuts that take effect long after he leaves office, and he will demand the world for them (in terms of tax hikes).

    Trading tax hikes now for spending cuts far in the future is like trading real money for monopoly money.

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  48. “Trading tax hikes now for spending cuts far in the future is like trading real money for monopoly money. ”

    bingo.

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    • JNC, it is worth noting that the political parties use the terminology of “trading” because they each are opposed to one of the two deficit remedies.

      I think the deficit remedies are additive, and thus, not for me, a “trade-off”.

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      • Mark:

        I think the deficit remedies are additive, and thus, not for me, a “trade-off”.

        If the deficit as a deficit is your only concern, and you are totally indifferent to both the amount of government spending and the level of taxation, then that makes sense. But I view, and I think the parties view, both taxation and spending policies as relevant for reasons other than simply as a means to remedy the deficit. Hence the trade-off.

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  49. “tax hikes”

    By “tax hike” do you mean any change to the tax code that increases revenue?

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    • bsimon:

      By “tax hike” do you mean any change to the tax code that increases revenue?

      I don’t know abut Brent, but I think that any change in the tax code which results in a person paying more in income taxes than he previously paid on the same income can be reasonably called a tax hike.

      Also, I remain interested in what it was of McWing’s you termed a “false construct”. Do you think the concept of morality is a “false construct”?

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  50. ” I think the deficit remedies are additive, and thus, not for me, a “trade-off”.”

    Sounds like you’re saying effective government is the primary goal & neither spending levels nor tax rates are the primary concern.

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  51. If its not to late, check out Drudge’s headline, hilarious.

    http://idrudgereport.com/

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  52. locust!

    that reminds me —

    I was at the gym and saw the following on Nat Geo. by the end, there were about 5-6 people crowded around my treadmill watching.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoEUODk_QrQ

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  53. McWing: Which headline?

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