Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1515.2 | -2.0 | -0.13% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2637.2 | -19.7 | -0.74% |
| Oil (WTI) | 97.3 | 0.3 | 0.30% |
| LIBOR | 0.29 | 0.000 | 0.00% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 80.52 | 0.426 | 0.53% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.05% | 0.02% | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 193.1 | -0.4 |
Markets are weaker this morning in spite of better than expected initial jobless claims and couple of new mergers (Berkshire Hathaway buying Heinz, and US Airways / American Airlines). The Eurozone economy weakened. Bonds and MBS are flat.
In the State of the Union, President Obama referred to “overlapping regulations” and called for streamlining the mortgage process. The housing industry is hoping that means that the Qualified Residential Mortgage rule (promulgated by the banking regulators) and the Qualified Mortgage Rule (promulgated by CFPB) will become consistent with each other. The sticking point is that the QRM rule is much more strict than the QM rule (QRM: 20% down, 36% DTI), vs QM (43% DTI). Bankers and consumer groups hope to have the down payment rule removed, and would ultimately like to see the QRM rule to match the QM rule. It seems that there is some bipartisan consensus on this.
Speaking of the SOTU, Obama’s agenda drew little support from Republicans, who “called it dead in the water.” John Boehner objected that his plan raises the price of employment and noted that when you increase the cost of something, you get less of it. Mitch McConnell referred to it as “liberal boilerplate that any Democratic lawmaker could have given at any time in recent memory.” John Thune noted that Obama would have a hard time getting Democrats to go along with portions of it. Six Senate Democrats seeking re-election next year in states that supported Mitt Romney are going to be hard pressed to vote fore new tax revenues beyond what has already been approved. At the end of the day, it will depend on whether Obama chooses to demagogue or deal. On the minimum wage, one Republican said it would have a chance if it was accompanied by a business package of tax credits and expensing rules to help small business. Paul Ryan noted that Obama chose not to politicize immigration reform, which means that something can be done there.
Sen Tom Coburn, R-OK says the sequestration cuts are going to happen. I still think it is much ado about nothing. Some facts:
Spending Side:
- Total Sequestration cuts: $85 billion
- Requested increase in the budget from FY12 – FY13: $75 billion
- Net change in spending: ~ $10B (or about 6 basis points of GDP)
- Payroll tax Holiday expiration: $160 billion
- Tax hike on the rich: $40 billion
- Obamacare tax hikes $42 billion
St Louis Fed Head James Bullard gave an upbeat presentation at Arkansas State University, noting that the Euro sovereign debt crisis seems to have calmed down and that some of the uncertainty in the US economy has been dissipating. The most important news came with the Q&A with reporters – he is not ready to call for an end to QE, and would defer any decision-making until this summer to see if the economy continues to improve.
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
I got nothin’.
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Agreeing with the NYT Editorial page:
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jnc:
No American prosecutor can imprison or execute someone except on the orders of a judge or jury. That fundamental principle applies no less to the suspected terrorists that the executive branch chooses to kill overseas, particularly in the case of American citizens.
The premise here seems to be that international terrorism is a criminal justice issue and not a military defense issue. I’m not at all sure that premise has been established or is justified.
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They could have run that 2 years ago.
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Did I read here that neither of you *liked* the Star Trek reboot?
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I wish they had, NoVA.
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we’re libertarian nutjobs. we demand purity in our science fiction.
he took a story about ideal and the struggle to achieve them and blew a bunch of stuff up. star trek and star wars aren’t suppose to be popcorn flicks.
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Wow! I thought it was a thrill a minute omage to the original. I never really got into any of the follow-on series, so to me, the reboot was like returning to the much enjoyable campy days of yore.
I’m seriously starting to question everything I’ve come to beleive is true.
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“ScottC, on February 14, 2013 at 9:59 am said:
jnc:
No American prosecutor can imprison or execute someone except on the orders of a judge or jury. That fundamental principle applies no less to the suspected terrorists that the executive branch chooses to kill overseas, particularly in the case of American citizens.
The premise here seems to be that international terrorism is a criminal justice issue and not a military defense issue. I’m not at all sure that premise has been established or is justified.”
Once Eric Holder brought “due process” into it, that’s the logical conclusion. If you have a due process right to challenge your detention at Guantanamo, then you have a due process right not to be assassinated.
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jnc:
Once Eric Holder brought “due process” into it, that’s the logical conclusion.
I agree that within the frame that Obama has himself built around his terrorism-prevention policy, he cannot do what he is in fact doing without contradicting his stated/implied “principles”. His position is incoherent (shocker, that). But if one rejects the framing, then there is no reason to think, as the NYT does, that the “fundamental principles” which guide our criminal justice system apply to international terrorism as well.
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“Michigoose, on February 14, 2013 at 9:36 am said:
I wish they had, NoVA.”
They did.
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“Troll McWingnut or George, whichever, on February 14, 2013 at 9:27 am said:
Did I read here that neither of you *liked* the Star Trek reboot?”
Correct, it’s horrible. The engine room of the Enterprise looked like the boiler room of an old New York public school.
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Happy Valentine’s Day:
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“novahockey, on February 14, 2013 at 9:45 am said:
we’re libertarian nutjobs. we demand purity in our science fiction.
he took a story about ideal and the struggle to achieve them and blew a bunch of stuff up. star trek and star wars aren’t suppose to be popcorn flicks.”
What do you expect from a generation raised on the Transformers movie franchise? That’s what the new Star Trek reminded me of the most. All that was missing was Shia LaBeouf.
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Call me an optimist, but I don’t think anyone outside of the Beltway is even going to notice if the sequestration cuts happen.
I can’t figure out whether your constant repetition of this flawed analysis represents a fundamental misunderstanding of the federal appropriations process, the federal expenditures that will be affected by the sequester, or both.
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“What do you expect from a generation raised on the Transformers movie franchise? That’s what the new Star Trek reminded me of the most. All that was missing was Shia LaBeouf.”
I’m stunned. Have you seen the original series? Wrath of Khan? If Gene Roddenberry had a huge budget and CGI it would have looked like the reboot.
Have either of you sought professional help?
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I disagree Troll. The contrasting example is what Roddenberry did when he did have that budget, namely Star Trek the Next Generation.
I still consider DS9 the best Star Trek series, based on the strength of the writing in the final three seasons.
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“ScottC, on February 14, 2013 at 11:18 am said:
But if one rejects the framing, then there is no reason to think, as the NYT does, that the “fundamental principles” which guide our criminal justice system apply to international terrorism as well.”
In order to use the war paradigm and be consistent with the Constitution, there has to be a limiting principle to it either in duration or geographic area. Permanent, world wide war isn’t a sustainable long term framework either.
I’d treat it as something in between, i.e. counterintelligence as from the Cold War and a FISA like court review before the name is placed on the target list strikes me as the de minis in terms of a review..
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jnc:
In order to use the war paradigm and be consistent with the Constitution, there has to be a limiting principle to it either in duration or geographic area.
Agreed.
I’d treat it as something in between,,,
It is definitely something that is new, and not really analagous to anything we’ve experienced before (except perhaps piracy?), so treating it as something in between would be a reasonable approach. What I object to is the NYT pretense that the criminal justice system provides easy and obvious solutions.
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Scott, it is analogous to piracy to the point of overlap. 9-11 and the Cole were indeed acts of piracy. All non-state paramilitary criminal conduct could be under the piracy laws as they existed until the 1960s, when the UN input was that piracy should not include politically motivated crimes. Well, we don’t know the motivation on the front end – if the bastards want to say they were politically motivated at their summary hearings as an attack on jurisdiction let them raise it then.
Analogizing to piracy gives us some clear guidelines. Field commanders can kill a pirate in flagrante or trying to escape. The hearing provided a pirate who surrenders must be one where the alleged pirate shows s/he isn’t really a pirate. Pirates are outlaws and have no state of respite or refuge.
However, Alaki was not in flagrante or trying to escape. Piracy rules don’t help us with him as they do when we are chasing Bin Laden. For Alaki, I like the intelligence court that can weigh the executive branch’s intelligence before the death warrant better than having an all powerful executive. But I wonder about the constitutionality even there.
It was perhaps a better world when intelligence was truly cloaked in secrecy. Or not. I don’t know, at this point in my life.
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“I still consider DS9 the best Star Trek series, based on the strength of the writing in the final three seasons.”
O.M.G.
We’ve truly lost our way.
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I still consider DS9 the best Star Trek series, based on the strength of the writing in the final three seasons.
This is largely the credit of Ron Moore who wrote many of the better episodes of that era. He moved on to “Voyager” but got forced out in a dispute with his writing partner Brannon Braga. Moore then went on to create the wildly critically hailed Battlestar Galactica reboot which I view as a big Fuck You to Star Trek as the premise of a lone starship in search of Earth is so similar to Voyager as to be tough to attribute to coincidence.
But it’s Rick Berman who eventually ran the Star Trek franchise into the ground. I don’t think I’ve ever seen more of Enterprise than the pilot and Nemesis was just plain incoherent.
I would have rather seen Ron Moore reboot Star Trek but I suppose those bridges are badly burned.
God, I am such a nerd.
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If Gene Roddenberry had a huge budget and CGI it would have looked like the reboot.
It would have looked like Star Trek I which is so bad as to be barely canon.
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Star Trek The Motion Picture has grown on me the more times I’ve seen it. The ship actually looks like it works.
Yellow: Ron Moore & Michael Pillar
http://www.trektoday.com/news/171105_01.shtml
Also Yellow, have you seen the new Blood & Chrome BSG movie?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battlestar_Galactica:_Blood_%26_Chrome
Edit: this is hopefull
“In 2011, Moore was commissioned by Lucasfilm’s Rick McCallum to write scripts for a Star Wars live action TV series, which is being developed for ABC.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_D._Moore#2009.E2.80.93present
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“But it’s Rick Berman who eventually ran the Star Trek franchise into the ground. I don’t think I’ve ever seen more of Enterprise than the pilot and Nemesis was just plain incoherent.”
The very last season where they know they are cancelled is worth watching.
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Also Yellow, have you seen the new Blood & Chrome BSG movie?
No. I had heard rumors about it for a long time, but the lack of Ron Moore’s involvement doesn’t excite me. I may hunt it down some day.
Caprica was strangled in its crib right as it was starting to get interesting. I understand that the pacing didn’t match the rest of the SyFy schedule, but it’s a shame good shows like that die too soon.
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The very last season where they know they are cancelled is worth watching.
I understand the Time War season is pretty good too, but that is a big time investment for a show of marginal quality when I still have four seasons of The Wire to watch.
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Yes, the Wire should be the top priority, followed by BSG if you haven’t finished that.
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It premiered last week and goes to DVD/Blu-Ray next week. You can watch it piecemeal here:
http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrFaRFw9s4G4OYkHPs0afqM_nT0jLvvPy
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Once Eric Holder brought “due process” into it, that’s the logical conclusion. If you have a due process right to challenge your detention at Guantanamo, then you have a due process right not to be assassinated.
You guys think Eric Holder brought due process into challenging detention at Guantanamo?
Wow. Now you’re really wandering off into La-la Land.
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No, but he brought it into drone strikes. The whole “due process doesn’t equal judicial process” argument.
http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/03/eric-holder-targeted-killing
Due process was brought into Guantanamo by the Supreme Court’s Hamdi decision.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamdi_v._Rumsfeld
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The Democrats sequester proposal: Replace the domestic cuts with tax increases, leave the defense cuts.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/14/sequester-cuts-senate-democrats_n_2687872.html
Why a single Republican would vote for this escapes me.
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Well, I suspect that, this proposal notwithstanding, there are enough R Senators worried about the defense budget that will cave and the sequester for defense will either before hand or after it takes effect, be zeroed out. What we’re seeing, I fear, is pure Kabuki for the R Tea Party wing a la the 2011 “cuts.” (Snicker)
Bottom line, the budget will never, ever, be substantialy slowed (from growing) or reduced. Nor will taxes ever be raised to cover even a small percentage of the deficit.
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I’m pretty much 100% with Mark on both the piracy aspects and the court requirement to put someone on a “death list”.
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Mark: +1,000
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No, but he brought it into drone strikes.
I have no idea what you’re trying to say. US citizens are guaranteed due process by the 5th A (and also the 14th A, but that is not applicable to this discussion).
“No person shall be … deprived of life, liberty, or property without due process of law.”
The Constitution brought due process into the discussion when the drones targeted US citizens. The Constitution also brought the right to a “speedy and public trial” into the discussion, which obviously al-Awlaki didn’t get.
I’m well aware of Hamdi, which is the root of my previous comment.
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Bottom line, the budget will never, ever, be substantialy slowed (from growing) or reduced. Nor will taxes ever be raised to cover even a small percentage of the deficit.
Not until the bond vigilantes come back and force the government to cut back…
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“Not until the bond vigilantes come back and force the government to cut back…”
That’s been my point all along. Those rates aren’t going to go up on a gentle curve, but a very steep incline. I wonder what kind of suffering a $1 trillion dollar instant cut will engender?
But by all means, let’s introduce more (snicker) “deficit neutral” spending and obsess over a sip of water.
Heckuva job, Mr. President!
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The bond vigilantes buffaloed Clinton. They got the attention of Europe. The only reason obama has been getting a pass is Bernake. That won’t last forever…
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Given that we have only rarely gotten above 20% of GDP in revenues, no matter how the tax code was structured, if push comes to shove, obama will have to choose between cutting government or establishing a VAT.
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” I can’t figure out whether your constant repetition of this flawed analysis represents a fundamental misunderstanding of the federal appropriations process, the federal expenditures that will be affected by the sequester, or both.”
Mike, there is a wall street bubble not unlike the beltway bubble. To be magnanamous, we all suffer from the blinders of our own experience.
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Given that we have only rarely gotten above 20% of GDP in revenues, no matter how the tax code was structured, if push comes to shove, obama will have to choose between cutting government or establishing a VAT.
Spending in real dollars has been relatively flat while it has been slowly declining as % of GDP. As with all previous spikes in the deficit exacerbated by economic downturns we will either grow or inflate our way out of it.
I don’t know why a VAT is the only option. The law of unintended consequences suggest it would be worse for the economy than the current tax structure.
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yello:
The law of unintended consequences suggest it would be worse for the economy than the current tax structure.
It certainly would be worse if it was put in place in addition to the current tax structure, which is the most likely scenario under a progressive government.
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“Mike, on February 14, 2013 at 3:58 pm said:
No, but he brought it into drone strikes.
I have no idea what you’re trying to say. ”
Obama’s administration was the one that brought the due process argument into drone strikes in the first place with Holder’s speech. They could have argued that it was a straight exercise of a war power, and therefore there wasn’t any requirement for due process at all, but instead they tried to have it both ways with the “due process doesn’t equal judicial process” arguments.
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