Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1427.7 | 0.5 | 0.04% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2625.6 | -4.8 | -0.18% |
| Oil (WTI) | 86.29 | -0.5 | -0.55% |
| LIBOR | 0.308 | -0.002 | -0.48% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 79.87 | 0.058 | 0.07% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.71% | 0.01% | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 191.3 | 0.5 |
Markets are flat after a mixed bag of economic data. Retail sales increased .3% in November vs an expectation of .5%. Initial Jobless claims fell to 343k and were well below the 369k expectation. The Producer Price Index showed inflation running lower than anticipated. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell. Bonds are down a few ticks and MBS are flat.
As expected, the Fed announced a Treasury buying program in its FOMC statement. $45 billion per month, until unemployment drops below 6.5% and inflation stays below 2.5%. Bernake was careful not to characterize the 6.5% unemployment rate as NAIRU – or the non- accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. They took down their GDP projections from September, with their 2013 GDP forecast falling to a range of 2.3 – 3.0 from a range of 2.5 – 3.0. They also took down unemployment as well, to a range of 7.3% to 7.7% from a range of 7.6% – 7.9%. Inflation forecasts were lowered as well. Here is a video of the press conference. Bonds reacted negatively to the announcement. Biggest takeaway – the Fed has the pedal to the metal and they are writing the book as they go along.
Looks like no progress so far on the fiscal cliff. A recent poll shows overwhelming support for increasing taxes on the rich. Business execs have been lobbying for a deal. Liberals are fighting spending cuts. Bernake mentioned in his press conference that the Fed does not have the ability to offset the negative effects to the economy if we go over.
A delay in BofA’s jumbo deal shows just how hard it is to bring private capital back into the mortgage market. Private Label Securitizations were $3.5 billion this year, versus $1 trillion in 2006. Blame Dodd-Frank’s proposed “skin in the game” rules, which combined with accounting and other requirements would require banks to hold capital against all of the underlying loans.
Transunion is forecasting mortgage delinquency rates to fall to 5.06% at the end of 2013 from 5.32% today. RealtyTrac reported foreclosure starts are at a 71 month low.
From the Department of Irony: it turns out that the government’s exit from GM hinges on the success of its newly-unveiled full size Silverado pickup. I could have sworn I heard many in Washington claim that the reason GM hit the wall was because they were making these huge vehicles that “nobody wants.”
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
Sorry to go off topic here Brent, didn’t realize you had a new post up already and left a comment on yesterday’s morning report.
Just wanted to let everyone know that Josh Marshall put up a nice post about Emily (ABC) the other night. I’m really happy she’s getting the recognition she deserves for her writing. I haven’t heard from her in a few weeks but she warned me that would probably happen.
I’m really proud we managed to get that book review of “Suite Harmonic” in.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/12/my_friend_emily.php?ref=fpblg
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Home prices in CA are up a little over 16% and home sales up a little over 14% from last year. Also, Gov. Brown is being treated for prostate cancer.
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The places that were hit the hardest – CA, Phoenix, Vegas are experiencing the biggest rebound.
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So does this mean the 1 year LIBOR is going to stay below 1 for the foreseeable future. I’ve got an ARM that looks like it might reset down again.
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“So does this mean the 1 year LIBOR is going to stay below 1 for the foreseeable future. I’ve got an ARM that looks like it might reset down again.”
With the caveat that LIBOR and short-term rates can diverge in a financial crisis, I think the Fed is telling you that interest rates (especially short-term rates) are going nowhere for at least the next 2-3 years.
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good to know
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OT: saw that lms was around than thought she’d be interested. other two. chart of the various debt/deficit reduction proposal for Medicare
it’s a bit dated, but this is the likely starting point.
http://www.kff.org/medicare/8124.cfm
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Thanks NoVA, I’ll try to look at it later tonight. I’m working on getting my toffee finished today and tomorrow so I can get it out the door Saturday………….busy, busy. I appreciate you thinking of me though when you come across this stuff.
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Oh and I may not comment very often but I do check in once a day or so to read.
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Hi, lms (waving)!
I’m in the same boat–too busy to have time to make meaningful contributions, but I always try to stop by to read through things. I’m really hoping it’s just the time of the year! 🙂
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I might be wrong, but I don’t think we’ve talked about access to contraception here before. 🙂
Jindal in WSJ says BC should be OTC.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324640104578163120400999616.html
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