THE TRASH NOVEL WE SHOULD BE WORKING ON

Posted on November 15, 2012 by markinaustin

Characters: 1] The evil but seductive twin sisters.

Imagine that they are sleeper agents for Hizbollah. One marries an Irish-American MD who is a sympathizer with the IRA and took a quickie course in intel gathering from Hizbollah. One marries the chief trader for American interests in Iraq, but sheds him when the Iraq War has no more useful intel.

2] The well meaning, but over-sexed former HS athlete and valedictorian, WP grad, reserve Major, and scholar/author, who we imagine learns of the evil twins through her time embedded with the CIA chief, who is too blind to have seen through them.

3] The we imagine honorable but manipulable CIA chief and generals who protect our land.

4] Jack Reacher [tm], who brings everyone to their senses, probably by slaying the evil twins, turning the Irish doctor, bedding the oversexed scholar, and redeeming the reputations of the honorable men, in some way I can’t figure out yet.

5] The Real Housewives [tm] of Tampa.

Some possible connections and plot turns:

Hizbollah was floating the couple in Tampa to lavish living in order to gain access to Central Command, but cut them off because of the War in Syria, or because they were not getting enough good stuff from the couple, who were having too good of a time.

Evil twin got so many wheels involved in her custody battle that Hizbollah shifted its financing to her.

Reacher [tm] first met the oversexed athlete/scholar/author when he was guarding a missile base in ND and she was a curious HS valedictorian. Didn’t have sex with her then but did have to remove her from the missile base.

Reacher [tm] is not Tom Cruise.

All twists and turns and perversions are welcome.

Filed under: fun stuff | 14 Comments »

Morning Report 11/15/12

Posted on November 15, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1352.6 -0.4 -0.03%
Eurostoxx Index 2456.5 -16.3 -0.66%
Oil (WTI) 86.54 0.2 0.25%
LIBOR 0.311 0.001 0.32%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.17 0.118 0.15%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.61% 0.02%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 192 -0.4  

Markets are flat this morning after yesterday’s bloodbath in the S&P and Wal Mart’s miss, which is a negative sign for the economy. Inflation at the consumer level remained in the Fed’s comfort range, while initial jobless claims jumped to 439k.  This is heavily influenced by Sandy, so don’t read too much into it. The NY Fed’s Empire Manufacturing Survey was negative, but better than expected and higher than the previous month.s  The Eurozone officially entered a recession.  Bonds are down small while MBS are flat.

The Bernank is speaking on Housing and Financial Markets at 1:20 est today.

Freddie Mac discusses housing starts in its November 2012 US Economic and Housing Market Outlook.  

The FOMC minutes released yesterday showed the Fed is moving in the direction of providing explicit economic guideposts for monetary policy.  In other words, once unemployment drops to X%, we end QE. While they also expressed concern that the scheduled completion of Operation Twist may impact the economy, they did not announce a Treasury buying program.  The market does expect one, though. 

A House report on MF Global basically characterizes Jon Corzine as the “de facto chief trader” and blames his trades for the firm’s collapse.  The Democrats on the panel refused to endorse the report, basically proving (yet again) that the financial is political. 

The Washington Post has a good backgrounder on the shale gas revolution.  This has the potential to be a real long-term elixir for the economy.

Filed under: Morning Report | Leave a comment »

Taxing the Job Creators

Posted on November 14, 2012 by Kevin S. Willis

Or, I suppose I could title it “Crafting Tax Policy Around Creating Economic Growth”, but that seems a little presumptuous, give it’s just a small mish-mash of half-formed musings.

Michael Arrington Spreads The Wealth

Michael Arrington believes in “trickle up” theory. “Wealth rises,” he says. “In the form of smoke, from the $100 bills I use to light my cigars!”

It occurs to me that the job creators are those that start and run small to mid-size businesses, mostly. If that’s the issue, why isn’t there more discussion of tax cuts or advantageous changes in tax policy for small businesses? Small businesses in the process of expanding or hiring are always strapped for cash, and tax bills (both federal and local) obligate hard decisions as regards to capital expenditures and labor expansion. Almost always, money that goes to pay the tax man, if kept, would go towards expanding the business or employing more people.

Wealthy individuals with high incomes are less likely to act as job creators, so it seems less likely, to me, that increased taxation on the wealthy would be a significant drag on the economy. They may invest their cash, but it’s unclear how much that investment does in terms of funding new hiring or innovation in new businesses, versus providing already solvent companies with a solid market capitalization, from which they produce pleasing dividends.

They may hire cooks and maids and gardeners, but it seems such hires are likely very low impact on the economy, and perhaps not the first things to go when a wealthy fellow pays an additional 3%-5% in taxes. Finally, it has been demonstrated that taxes on luxury items radically curtail the purchase of luxury goods, so it could be speculated that additional taxes on the wealthy would negatively impact those companies that produce luxury items. This is a negative, as those employed producing luxury items are better employed in such production than unemployed, but it seems to me that the overall impact on the economy is probably insignificant.

Thus, if the interest is in growing the economy through tax policy, a compromise position that raises taxes on the individual income of those making $250k+ per year, while offering significant tax advantages to small businesses making under $1 million per year, or offering a permanent per-employee tax break that allows small companies that employee a large number of people to pay virtually no federal taxes, would be a better way to stimulate economic growth.

Myself, I don’t care for the rhetoric of class envy. Complaining that the rich “didn’t build it themselves”, or that the wealthy aren’t “doing their fair share” has no resonance with me. I have no moral objection to the rich getting richer, and getting to keep more of their money. The top 2% pay half of all taxes, and that’s a lot. Those folks, as super-rich as they are, are doing their part. Even if Warren Buffet pays less as a percentage rate than his secretary.

However, it seems that we will need to raise revenue in addition to cutting spending (which seems, at best, a pipe dream, and I suspect we will eventually follow the Greek model), and there are probably worse places to raise revenue than increasing taxes on the wealthy, either in terms of income taxes or increases in capital gains taxes over a certain amount (and excluding the sale of primary residences), or even a minor wealth tax for folks who have assets in their name over some arbitrary sum. It seems to me raising taxes on the middle class, or on small businesses, would be more likely to put a drag on the economy.

The reverse of that last sentiment also seems to be true to me: that tax cuts on small businesses, and the middle class, would be more likely to spur economic growth. Although many factors, of course, contribute to economic growth, and tax policy doesn’t make or break the economy, one way or the other, in a vacuum. Until top marginal rates start approach 90%, but then, of course, you suffer another problem as regards revenue: compliance.

It just seems to me that most of the arguments seem to be about abstract things. That is: “The rich can afford it!” – “The rich already pay 80% of all taxes!” – “People with seven homes don’t need another tax break!” – “It’s their money! They earned it!”- “Rich people are greedy and only want more money!” – “You’re just jealous! And a taker! And lazy! What ever happened to self-reliance?” Etc. There doesn’t seem to be much objective discussion of what is meant by taxing the “job creators”, who creates the most jobs (small businesses, or sole proprietorships?), which tax cuts on which groups increases money flowing into the economy, or even who benefits and how much when the economy prospers.

Reaganomics has always been (IMO) unfairly vilified by many on the left (don’t get me started on the constant mischaracterization of the Laffer Curve), when the fact is the fundamental precept of “trickle down” economics makes good sense: cutting taxes at every level puts more money into the economy, and that rising tide lifts all boats. It just lifts the richer boats higher, but if the alternative is that we all sink, I don’t think that’s such a bad deal.

At some level, the tide will have risen as much as it can: that is, if the wealthy pay an effective 18% rate on their income and their taxes are cut to an effective 10%, it has ceased to trickle down in a meaningful way (this is not an assertion, just a theoretical example, real numbers would likely be different, but I think the principle would prove true). There seems to be ample evidence for this, in that the richer are richer than ever, and their wealth has been increasing on a steady curve, with no demonstrable benefit to the overall economy. While I’m not sympathetic to complaints that 1% of Americans control 34.5% of America’s wealth, such wealth concentration indicates a solid increase, over the past few decades, of the fortunes of the very wealthy in this country. I.e., the wealthier are much richer, they have much more money with which to create jobs, and they just aren’t doing it. Not because they are bad people or are evil or greedy, it’s just that tax cuts for the rich don’t produce jobs or economic growth in any meaningful sense. At least, not past a certain level. And we are well past that level.

To repeat myself, it seems to me there is an obvious reason those tax cuts don’t produce jobs or significant economic growth. Those very wealthy individuals don’t have any additional businesses they wish to create, people they need to higher, or local investments they are wanting to make or expand with that additional money. At least, not to the degree that impacts the economy.

Yet, it seems to me there are areas where an increase in money would find it’s way into new paychecks and new capital investments: small businesses and, to a lesser extent, the middle class. These are the folks without a surplus of money, but with people they would hire, if they could, and equipment or appliances that need to be replaced, or businesses they would start, if only they had the money. Yet an excellent opportunity for one side or the other to argue for making the middle class tax cuts permanent, or introducing a new generous small business tax cut, has passed again and again, as the two sides take their largely inflexible position on the Bush tax cuts. It’s all about either increasing taxes on the rich to raise revenue, or preserving existing tax cuts so that the rich can stimulate the economy with the extra money (although there seems to be little evidence of this, and certainly no compelling reason to think that it’s the best stimulation tax policy can make possible).

Put in the bluntest terms, I think Republicans would do well to cave on the Bush tax cuts for those making over $250k+, and build a coalition around making middle class tax cuts permanent, and coming up with some fresh tax cuts for small businesses with more than 3 non-contract employees and less than $1 million (or $3 million, perhaps) in total revenues.

Just letting the Bush tax cuts lapse may increase revenues to the federal treasury, but it’s not going to grow the economy.

Filed under: budget, Economy, GOP, taxes | Tagged: , | 41 Comments »

Morning Report 11/14/12

Posted on November 14, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1375.3 4.4 0.32%
Eurostoxx Index 2484.9 -8.2 -0.33%
Oil (WTI) 85.16 -0.2 -0.26%
LIBOR 0.31 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.07 -0.017 -0.02%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.62% 0.02%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 192.4 -0.5  

Markets are higher this morning after a good earnings report out of Cisco and a benign reading on wholesale-level inflation.  Shades of the late 90s. Retail sales disappointed, but they were affected by Sandy so the market is dismissing the numbers. Later today, we will get the minutes of the FOMC meeting. 

Speaking of Sandy, she may become the excuse du jour for companies that miss their quarter.  Be advised.

Obama has put out his plan for the fiscal cliff.  It raises double the amount of revenue that was proposed during the deal with Boehner two years ago and involves more than simply letting rates go up for those making over $250k – it includes limitations on deductions and a surtax for incomes over $1 million.  Geithner has dismissed the Republican plan to leave rates the same and cap deductions.  So that is the bid / ask spread at the moment.  

I have heard recent estimates that if we go over the fiscal cliff completely, the economy will contract 1% in Q1.  If we raise taxes on the rich, we will have GDP around 1%, but that number was based on the going back to the old rates, not the additional stuff.  So it would probably be lower. Sounds like flat GDP in early 2013 is a possibility. The FOMC today may provide further guidance re Treasury purchases.  I would not want to be leaning short Treasuries at the moment.

Blackstone sees a two year window to buy foreclosed properties at a discount. They forecast the median existing home price to increase 6% this year, 5% in 2013 and similar gains in 2014.  If homebuilding does not accelerate, they forecast even bigger gains. I keep coming back to the idea that the remaining shadow inventory is largely picked over, and some of it (foreclosures in Harrisburg, Detroit and Stockton) simply aren’t going to sell. Meanwhile, Buffet continues to be positive on housing and has been increasing his exposure. Ara Hovnanian isn’t as sanguine.

Freddie Mac reported that 29% of refis in 3Q involved a term shortening as people refi from a 30 year fixed to a 15 year fixed. During the quarter, the 30 year fixed rate averaged 3.55%, while the 15 year averaged 2.84%.

Will investors do the heavy lifting of ending TBTF? (too big to fail)  Trillium and AFSCME have sent a proposal to Citi encouraging them to split up.  While it is easy to dismiss this as based on politics (Trillium is representing the Benedictine Sisters and has a .01% stake, and AFSCME is a union), it is true that Citi (and others) are trading at a discount to their peers and are exhibiting the classic holding company discount. Could we see Citi spin off Salomon Brothers?  Bank of America spin off Merrill?  JPM spin off Chase? 

Filed under: Morning Report | 13 Comments »

Morning Report 11/13/12

Posted on November 13, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1370.0 -8.2 -0.59%
Eurostoxx Index 2460.4 -13.1 -0.53%
Oil (WTI) 84.97 -0.6 -0.70%
LIBOR 0.31 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.2 0.166 0.20%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.59% -0.01%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 192.8 0.3  

Markets are weaker this morning on Greek worries and a negative earnings report out of Weatherford. Bonds are up 1/2 a point and MBS are flat.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism index gained .3 points.  Uncertainty reached a record high, although this is understandable given it was an October before an election. CAPEX remains in maintenance mode, and hiring is absolutely flat. Generally it was a glum report.

Now that we have the election behind us, we can pretty much safely say that it is safer to be more constructive on Treasuries.  The Fed will continue to do what it does, and taxes are going up at the end of the year.  Combine that with the fact that Obama’s re-election is a negative for energy and the financials, and we could be facing a weak Q113 as well. 

But is there a bright spot?  Ah yes, housing.  Jamie Dimon has some optimistic comments regarding housing in the WSJ.  He basically cites the same things I have been talking about – household formation, affordability and inventory.  He makes the statement that housing isn’t going to recover in the absence of a strong economy, which I am not so sure I agree with.  I think the low household formation numbers of the last 6 years are artificially depressed due to a lousy economy and have created pent-up demand.  Eventually, people get married, move out of Mom and Dad’s place, and boot out the roommates.  In other words, housing can improve in spite of the economy.  

Not only that, but think about this:  As part of obamacare, obama instituted a 3.8% surtax on investment income for people making over $250k.  In a tight rental market, landlords will undoubtedly attempt to pass that cost on to renters, making the rent vs buy decision even more of a no-brainer.  Credit availability remains a problem, though as Dimon notes. 

Wapo notes that the REO discount is starting to disappear.

AIG is looking to expand its balance sheet in the mortgage business.

Filed under: Morning Report | 21 Comments »

Morning Report

Posted on November 12, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics 

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1380.2 4.5 0.33%
Eurostoxx Index 2477.4 -2.4 -0.10%
Oil (WTI) 85.55 -0.5 -0.60%
LIBOR 0.31 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.97 -0.055 -0.07%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.61% 0.00%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 192.8 0.3  

Stock markets are higher this morning after last week’s post-election sell-off.  Bonds are closed for Veteran’s Day. The government also has the day off, so there are is no major economic news.

Post election, all eyes turn to the fiscal cliff.  There appears to be a growing consensus that we can leave rates unchanged for the top and limit deductions. Partisan posturing and political jockeying will make the markets a miserable place for the next couple of months.  Capital gains and dividends remain a wild card. The obamacare surtax will happen regardless, so financial income is taking a hit right off the bat.

The Basel III requirements scheduled to take effect on Jan 1 have been pushed back to some time in the future.  SIFMA and the MBA agree with the decision.

So how will the election affect the markets and real estate?  I suspect FHFA Chairman DeMarco will be out of a job, which will pave the way for principal reductions on F&F/Ginnie loans. If they don’t think this through, they could face a deluge of homeowners suddenly finding themselves “unable” to make their mortgage payment.

Geithner is out for obama II, and the favorite for replacement seems to be Jack Lew. Lew is a “middle of the road” candidate that has already been unanimously confirmed by the Senate in 2010 for the OMB job. 

If we go over the fiscal cliff, we will undoubtedly have a 1H recession, which could result in a 1.25% 10-year.  Which means the refi boom will continue to have legs.  If FHFA starts modding underwater loans to LTVs of 1.0, we should see some refi activity, especially in the FHA space.  That said, if CFPB doesn’t come out with a bright line definition of a QM, refinancing these folks may prove to be difficult.

Regarding a 1H recession, earnings this quarter were not great, and Sandy will probably lop 1% to 1.5% of of 4Q GDP.  Taxes are going up, so we should start handicapping a 1H recession. Will it affect housing?  My sense is no, the bottom is in, and the recession will be felt more in cap goods / the energy patch than in housing. JP Morgan downgraded CAT this morning based on the expected negative impact the election will have on energy and mining. 

Filed under: Morning Report | 12 Comments »

A Couple of Articles That May Be of Interest

Posted on November 12, 2012 by ashot

I’m wading a bit into rocky waters with these two articles, but perhaps we can have a good discussion on this topic. I’m particularly interested in Michi and Okie’s thoughts on an article in The Atlantic discussing rape exceptions for abortions. Given our past difficulties in discussing abortion maybe Michi and Okie can send me their thoughts via email, but even if there is no discussion, I thought it was an interesting take on the subject.

For those who are not inclined to read the article, the author argues that were abortion to be made illegal, a rape exception would not really provide women with control over their bodies. She argues that any reproductive freedom from a rape exception would only by illusory because eventually some bureaucrat (possibly, if not probably, male) would likely have ultimate say over whether a particular woman qualified for the exception.

I must admit that I found the argument compelling with respect to its take on the fact that a rape exception would probably only make it seem like women still had some control. However, the article does ignore the more practical aspect of the rape exception, namely that a woman may not have to carry a rapist’s baby to term. Even if the decision is not entirely her own, there is obviously a benefit to the woman. The other thing the article ignores is what were to happen if there were no exception. What if the woman went on a hunger strike? What if she tried to hurt herself and/or the baby? Would the government intervene and force her to eat and deliver the baby? Would a jury convict a woman of murder if she killed the baby? Would physicians be required to report a miscarriage that they thought was a self-induced abortion? So many troubling questions.

This article, also from The Atlantic, talks about where racists tweets came from following Obama’s re-election. The results are both not at all surprising and surprising.

Filed under: racism | Tagged: | 24 Comments »

Bites & Pieces, Chili Edition

Posted on November 11, 2012 by Michigoose

I don’t care if you get yours pre-packaged from Costco, lets hear about your best chili recipes.  Stick a recipe in and I’ll worry about getting us all formatted by next Sunday (the 11th).  Stick a recipe in any way–I may edit for formatting as the day goes on, but I’m busy shoveling snow.  🙂  And how timely!  It went from 72 and sunny on Thursday to four inches about a foot of snow outside as I type.  Definitely chili weather. . .

Michigoose’s White Bean and Chicken Chili

This is really a trip down memory lane, as I haven’t made this in several years.  I think the amount of chili powder is underestimated, so go with what you think is best.

Ingredients

  • 4 cups white beans
  • 3 chicken breasts
  • 1 medium white onion, chopped
  • 6 Tbl garlic, chopped
  • 1 tsp chili powder
  • 2 cans chicken stock
  • 1 cup white wine
  • 2 cups nonfat plain yogurt

Method

Soak bean overnight, rinsing several times.  Cook beans in water seasoned with salt and pepper, half of the garlic, and Emeril Lagasse’s Essence (recipe follows).

Brown onion in olive oil.  Add the remaining garlic and brown.

Dice chicken and place in a ziplock bag with salt, pepper and Essence; shake to coat.   Add to onions/garlic and brown.

Drain beans and add to the pot along with the remaining ingredients.  Simmer 2 – 3 hours covered, then uncover and simmer another 1 – 2 hours to thicken.  Serve with grated cheese.

Emeril Lagasse’s Essence

My Dad claims he’d eat this on ice cream if he ate ice cream, but I think that’s going a bit far.  It is my spice blend of choice, though, and I use it on about everything and anything.

  • 2 1/2 tbl paprika
  • 2 tbl garlic powder
  • 1 tbl black pepper
  • 1 tbl onion powder
  • 1 tbl cayenne pepper
  • 1 tbl dried oregano
  • 1 tbl dried thyme
  • 2 tbl salt (optional)

I make mine without the salt so that I can salt the food separately.  Yields about 1/2 cup of spice mixture.

Michigoose’s Sometimes It Doesn’t Matter How Bad You Cook Chili (You still get the guy)

Back in the day, my Mom was given Betty Crocker’s Picture Cook Book (Revised and Enlarged) at a “kitchen” wedding shower; when I graduated from college and moved out on my own I persuaded her into giving it to me (and it was a tough sell, as it was her “go to” cookbook–I think I had to get her an updated copy if I remember right).  This recipe is on page 277 of that edition of the cookbook and is one of the first things I ever fixed for Brian; our tastebuds got a lot better over the years, but we still had this right around our wedding anniversary every year.  I can think of several things I’d change in this recipe, but sometimes it’s fun to see a classic in all its glory!

“Zesty ‘south of the border’ specialty”!

Brown in 3 tbsp hot fat. . .

  • 1 lb ground beef
  • 1 1/4 cups minced onion

Add and cook 10 min. . .

  • 2 1/2 cups cooked kidney beans (no. 2 can)
  • 1 1/2 cups condensed tomato soup

Make into a paste and blend in. . .

  • 1 1/2 to 2 tbsp chili powder
  • 1 tbsp flour
  • 3 tbsp water
  • 1 tsp salt

Cook over low heat, stirring frequently, 45 min.  Serve hot. . . with crackers or hot Fried Corn Meal Mush (p 293).

(“Zesty” it said–wow, how times have changed!)

Okie’s Vegetarian Sweet Potato-Black Bean Chili [Source:  www.eatingwell.com]

Ingredients [Makes about 4 cups]

  • 2 teaspoons extra-virgin olive oil
  • 1 small onion, finely diced
  • 1 small sweet potato, peeled and diced
  • 2 cloves garlic, minced
  • 1 tablespoon chili powder
  • 2 teaspoons ground cumin
  • 1/4 teaspoon ground chipotle chile
  • 1/8 teaspoon salt, or to taste
  • 1 1/3 cups water
  • 1 15-ounce can black beans, rinsed
  • 1 cup canned diced tomatoes
  • 2 teaspoons lime juice
  • 2 tablespoons chopped fresh cilantro

Preparation

Heat oil in a large saucepan over medium-high heat. Add onion and potato and cook, stirring often, until the onion is slightly softened, about 4 minutes. Add garlic, chili powder, cumin, chipotle and salt and cook, stirring constantly, until fragrant, about 30 seconds. Add water, bring to a simmer, cover, reduce heat to maintain a gentle simmer and cook until the potato is tender, 10 to 12 minutes. Add beans, tomatoes and lime juice; increase heat to high and return to a simmer, stirring often. Reduce heat to maintain a simmer and cook until slightly reduced, about 4 minutes. Remove from the heat and stir in cilantro.

Nutrition — And remember that both sweet potatoes and black beans are considered “superfoods”

Per 2 cup serving : 374 Calories; 6 g Fat; 1 g Sat; 4 g Mono; 0 mg Cholesterol; 67 g Carbohydrates; 14 g Protein; 15 g Fiber; 699 mg Sodium; 603 mg Potassium

Exchanges: 4 starch, 1 1/2 vegetable, 1 fat

Mark’s Chili (No Beans)

For me, there is chili or chili and beans.

This is chili:
Step 1
2 lbs – “chili grind” beef chuck (you should have the butcher trim extra fat from chuck, or substitute round)
2 tsp – cooking oil/olive oil + “pam”
1 tbsp – Wick Fowler 2 Alarm chili powder
2 tsp – chopped garlic

After browning meat in big skillet [use a little oil and pam], (skim or drain excess fat and then) put the browned meat into a three quart heavy saucepan, add the remaining ingredients and simmer [10 min.] . Simmering is done on low-medium heat on most stove tops.
Prepare Step 2 during the 10 minute simmer.

Step 2
1 – 8 oz can of tomato sauce or home prepared sauce
1 – big can of beef broth or real beef broth
1/4 cup chopped sweet yellow onion Texas A&M1015Y or [Granex (Vidalia, Maui Maui or NoonDay)]
1 tsp – chopped garlic
8 oz – bottled or distilled or filtered water
1 tbsp – WF 2 Alarm chili powder
2 – serrano peppers
1/2 tsp – salt

Combine seasonings except the serrano peppers and add to beef mixture. Float the 2 serrano peppers on top of the mixture. Bring to a boil and hold for 3 minutes, reduce heat and simmer for 1 hour. Then remove the floating serrano peppers.

Taste the mixture after an hour.
Correction to your personal taste stage!

Have handy:
a little bit of chopped onion, a little bit of chopped garlic, more 2 Alarm chili powder, red pepper, a little cumin, salt, and [optionally] a little bit of brown sugar. Also more bottled water, of course. I personally never use the sugar, but a little bit is ok for most people. Do not overdo sugar or you will make a hopeless, disgusting mess.
GUESS HOW MUCH OF EACH YOU NEED TO CORRECT THE SEASONING AND USE LESS THAN YOUR GUESS FOR EACH.
THIS will be your first correction simmer.
If necessary do a second “correction to your personal taste stage”.

Simmer for 10 minutes.
Let stand for 40 minutes

Addendum: if you are not using a low sodium broth you might skip any salt until the correction stage. Canned beef broth can be really salty.

Geanie Tilley’s Chili Verde

Hello All, from OK here. Just thought perhaps a nice Chili Verde might also come in handy with the cooler weather. I have so many recipes going back decades but I find this Chili Verde recipe, from La Bola (Mexican restaurant), Denver CO (as printed in the 1978 Colorado Cache Cookbook by the Junior League of Denver) to be the “poster child” of chili verde recipes.

Makes 3 quarts
2 ½ lbs port roast (fresh shoulder preferred)
1 lb pork soup bones
44 ounces canned tomatoes (28-ounce and 16-ounce cans)
23 ounces tomato sauce (15-ounce and 16-ounce cans)
1 tbs garlic powder
28 ounces hot water (3 ½ cups)
21 ounces diced green chili strips (Ortega brand preferred, 3 7-ounce cans)
¾ – 1 ounce diced hot peppers (Ortega brand preferred, ¼ of a 3 ½ ounce can)
1 tbs sugar
1 ½ tbs salt

Cut pork into ½ inch squares and with the port bones, fry over low heat until brown and the meat is slightly dry. If pork is very fat, pour off all but 4 or 5 tablespoons of the grease.

Using a colander, strain tomatoes into an 8 qt saucepan and coarsely chop tomatoes.

Combine tomatoes, tomato sauce, garlic, hot water and cooked pork and bones in the same saucepan.

Bring to a rapid boil and continue boiling for 20 minutes.

Add spices, chopped hot peppers and chopped chili strips.
Continue boiling another 20 minutes.

Finish by cooking on medium heat until desired thickness, usually about another 20 minutes.

Remove bones and serve.

Note: May be kept refrigerated for a week or frozen for 3 months. Use to cover burritos, chili rellenos and most other Mexican favorites.

Also can melt an equal amount of grated sharp Cheddar cheese and the chili verde for a fantastic chili con queso dip.

ENJOY!

I am from Ohio and we often serve our chili over spaghetti.  Almost every divey diner has Chili-Mac on the menu, which is chili over spaghetti with cheddar cheese and chopped onion on top.  There is a famous chili place in Cincinnati called Skyline Chili.  This is a take on their recipe.  The allspice and cinnamon give this a distinctly different flavor from traditional chili recipes.

Brent’s Cincinati Chili Recipe

  • 2 lbs ground beef
  • 2 chopped onions
  • 1 qt water
  • 1 16 oz can tomatoes
  • 1.5 tsp vinegar
  • 1 tsp worstershire
  • 1 tbs chil powder
  • 1 tbs cumin
  • 2 tsp allspice
  • 2 tsp salt
  • 1 tsp cayenne
  • 1 tsp cinnamon
  • 1 tsp garlic powder
  • 3 bay leaves
  • 1 can kidney beans

Brown the meat, pour off the grease and then add all the ingredients and simmer for 3 hours or more.  Test for heat and add chili powder as necessary.

Serve over spaghetti with chopped onion and grated cheddar cheese.

Filed under: Bites and Pieces | Tagged: | 31 Comments »

I like the kitchen, but I think it needs a new Cabinet

Posted on November 10, 2012 by Fairlington Blade

I was planning this post for the weekend, but then events overtook me. 

Secretary of State: John Kerry replaces Hillary Clinton

I’m going with the obvious choice for this post. Rice will be blocked by a filibuster, so she’s out. Kerry covets the position, worked hard for Obama, and is probably tired of the Senate. The only strike against him is that it opens up the seat to a Republican who would very much like to return to the Senate. Frankly, I’d like to see Scott Brown back in the Senate. I would have voted for Warren if I still lived in Massachusetts, but I’d take him over the typical Massachusetts pol. If the some of the teeth of the filibuster were pulled, I’d probably vote for him. Brown will probably run for governor of Massachusetts if Kerry stays.

Secretary of Defense: Chuck Hagel replaces Leon Panetta

Hagel is a natural for a cross-party appointment. The occasional endorsement of a Democrat doesn’t hurt.

Treasury: Jack Lew replaces Timothy Geithner

Too obvious to justify.

Attorney General: Who replaces Holder?

I’m interested in the thoughts of those with a legal background or interest. Occasionally listening to Supreme Court arguments on C-SPAN doesn’t qualify me. I did enjoy the oral arguments broadcast this morning on Clapper vs. Amnesty International.

CIA: Jane Harmon replaces David Petreaus

I didn’t have this one on my list of changes. Just goes to demonstrate the foresight of Harold Macmillan, who when asked what might blow his government off course responded “Events, dear boy, events.” Elevating acting director Michael Morell is an obvious choice, but he was denied the chalice in the past. Perhaps Obama will go for continuity over history.

Agriculture: Bob Kerrey replaces Tom Vilsack

I think Bob Kerrey is a dead lock for the cabinet. The question is where? Several possibilities occurred to me. He’s a Cornhusker (like me) and he served on the Agriculture Committee in the Senate. He also served on the Intelligence Committee and the 9/11 Commission, so CIA and DHS are possibilities. He was president of the New School from 2001 – 2010, but I think Education won’t change.

Energy: Bob Chu is out. Who is in?

Here’s a chance for cross party work. I’m not sure who’s coming in here, but somebody with energy sector connections would be a savvy choice.

Anyone else have some thoughts on the cabinet?

BB

Filed under: 2013 and beyond | 12 Comments »

Friday 11/9/2012 Open Thread

Posted on November 9, 2012 by jnc4p

Since it appears that Brent is still on the left coast, I figured I would do an open thread for today.

First up, the drug war ramifications of the election.

Mexico says marijuana legalization in U.S. could change anti-drug strategies

Should this be true, it’s a major vindication of the ballot initiative process as a way to end run around the two parties on specific issues.

Filed under: War on Drugs | 41 Comments »

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