WaPo analyzes HRC as SecState and as Methodist

Posted on November 26, 2012 by markinaustin

HRC

Most of you know that before her current stint as SecState I was not a fan. I had serious reservations about her as an unelected person with the sway of an elected one in the West Wing and I truly despised her health care plan upon reading through the 1200+ pages in 1993. That episode, and hearing her defend it, and her insistence that M.D.s play no part in the design, marked her as hopelessly arrogant, even reckless, IMHO.

Further, I remain convinced from the evidence that surfaced for me on Frontline, and from what I know commonly occurred with S&Ls in the southwest in the late 80s and early 90s, that she had indeed participated in fraud on behalf of her client. I have discussed this here and probably linked at other times. Suffice to repeat, I was not a fan, and would not have voted for her for POTUS under any circumstance.

She showed restraint and the ability to enter coalitions in the Senate, and I gave her points for progressing in that way, but my strong reservations remained.

The linked attempt to explain her, written with an uncritical eye, I think, probably contains much truth, and I do respect the job she has done as SecState.

The article suggests she will always want the power to actually do the UMC’s social gospel. It hints that this might lead her to run for POTUS. I, for one, think if the article has any truth to it, that she should get on with the Gates Foundation, an effective and focused charity. I think, if the article has any truth to it, she would do well using her skills in that way.

There are many Americans suitable to become POTUS. True, I have argued that former SecsState, SecsDef, NSAdvisors, flag officers with broad foreign theater experience, persons like Huntsman who had multiple experiences as a key ambassador and as a governor, and probably former CIA Directors, have a better chance at first term success than typical senators or governors or lawyers, or doctors, or businesspersons. That is b/c FP is the first concern of the POTUS. Thus HRC is among the group I nominally consider most qualified.

Qualified, but also disqualified, to pervert a phrase from probate law.

I cannot buy off on HRC for POTUS. I have not forgotten either her arrogance, when she thought she had a free hand, or what I believe to have been her criminal misconduct as an attorney. Let her be a force for social justice as she sees it. Let her career be golden. Just don’t try to do it in the White House.

Please?

Filed under: 2013 and beyond, hillary clinton | 7 Comments »

Morning Report 11/26/12

Posted on November 26, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1398.6 -6.7 -0.48%
Eurostoxx Index 2541.1 -15.9 -0.62%
Oil (WTI) 87.88 -0.4 -0.45%
LIBOR 0.312 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.24 0.052 0.06%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.65% -0.04%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 190.8 -0.3  

Markets are lower after last week’s furious rally. Friday’s rally took the S&P 500.  Friday was a shortened low-volume day, so take the result with a grain of salt. Today feels a bit like a “risk off” day with bonds and MBS rallying.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index slowed in October, and has been consistently saying the economy is running at below-trend for 8 months in a row. Put an asterisk next to this one, though – Lower industrial production was the main driver of the index and that was affected by Hurricane Sandy.

The initial read on holiday sales looks promising – weekend and Black Friday sales were up 13% over last year.  The National Retail Federation is forecasting a 4.1% rise in holiday sales this year, with the caveat that the fiscal cliff is the wildcard. The consumer confidence numbers lately have been reasonably strong. Of course, even if you have a benign resolution to the fiscal cliff, the posturing and finger-pointing prior to the deal may depress consumer spending anyway, especially if we have a similar dynamic to the debt ceiling crisis of 2011.  

One reason for the increased consumer spending? HELOCs are back. The Mortgage Bankers Association is estimating house prices will gain 8% this year and increased equity means more spending.  Of course the banks still have yet to write off all of their worthless 2nd liens from the first go around.

The status of the fiscal cliff seems to be increase rates vs limit deductions.  Susan Collins is proposing some sort of carve-out for small businesses.  Raising the eligibility age for Medicare seems to have some bipartisan support as well.  Perhaps an increase in the top rate to something less than 39.6% and some limits on deductions will carry the day.  

As part of the backdrop for Euro debt fears, watch closely what is happening in Argentina. Dissident investors from the last debt restructuring (including my old firm Elliott Management) sued to block Argentina from paying anyone until their claims are satisfied. The case is going through the appeals process.  Unlike the Greek situation, Argentina has the money to pay their creditors – they just don’t want to. High commodity prices are helping their economy. If Argentina chooses to simply default and not pay anyone, the risk-off trade could come back in a hurry.  

Filed under: Morning Report | 29 Comments »