Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1451.4 | 6.7 | 0.46% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2495.3 | 2.8 | 0.11% |
| Oil (WTI) | 88.75 | 0.6 | 0.69% |
| LIBOR | 0.352 | 0.000 | -0.07% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 79.74 | -0.226 | -0.28% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.64% | 0.03% | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 194.4 | 0.2 |
Markets are higher this morning after the ECB held rates steady. Generally speaking, the path of least resistance has been up in the equity markets since QEIII. Bonds and MBS are down small.
Initial Jobless claims came in at 367k, better than expected, but higher from last week’s revised 363k. Later this afternoon, we will get the minutes of the FOMC meeting which should make interesting reading.
Lender Processing Services Mortgage Monitor showed delinquencies have dropped almost 50% from peak, while foreclosures remain at their highs. Which means foreclosures should start dropping in the future. The states with the highest remaining foreclosures are NY, NJ, and HI.
Challenger and Gray reported that planned layoffs are the lowest in 12 years as government downsizing appears to be at an end. While this is a good sign, it doesn’t necessarily mean hiring is about to pick up as headwinds from Europe and Asia, as well as political uncertainty in the US are keeping companies from making any major expansion or hiring moves. They cite a Business Roundtable survey which found that only 30% of CEOs expected to increase capital spending or add more workers. Those numbers are down from the mid 40s in Q1. So while layoffs are back at pre-recession levels, hiring is not.
The debate last night was not market moving, but Romney’s performance should put an end to the pundits declaring the race over already. At the margin, a Romney win would be bond bearish, and possibly stock market bearish since Ben Bernanke would not be re-appointed. I was happy to hear Romney mention the lack of guidance as to what constitutes a qualified mortgage.
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
ECB Holds Rates as Inflation Offsets Growth Concerns”
Another mistake, the people and governments of Europe will be lucky to survive bad central banking.
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“At the margin, a Romney win would be bond bearish, and possibly stock market bearish since Ben Bernake would not be re-appointed.”
Still disagree, not necessarily that Bernanke would be reappointed, but that his successor would change direction.
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“Here’s Romney during the debate…
“[N]umber one, pre-existing conditions are covered under my plan.”
…and here’s Romney’s spokesperson after the debate.
Pressed by TPM’s Evan McMorris-Santoro, [Eric Fehrnstrom] said those who currently lack coverage because they have pre-existing conditions would need their states to implement their own laws — like Romney’s own Massachusetts health care law — that ban insurance company from discriminating against sick people.”
http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/
Agreed, that the main reason Romney looked good last night was because he said whatever came to mind, without being restricted by any actual policy position that he has previously taken or will take in the future.
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OT, but way cool:
http://www.npr.org/blogs/krulwich/2012/10/02/162147810/are-those-spidery-black-things-on-mars-dangerous-yup?wpisrc=nl_wonk
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” OT, but way cool”
Before the debate my 5yr old and I watched a Nature show on the Hawaii volcano eruption. The underwater footage of lava flows was mesmerizing.
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Sigh, when the premise of your argument is a caricature, it’s usually unpersuasive:
Left out of the argument is how the kindergarten came to be “lavishly supplied” in the first place.
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Jeez, JNC, if the class had 100 kids in it it must have been a public school…
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Anybody stupid enough to buy this argument deserves to have their own job outsourced to China:
“What things would I cut from spending? Well, first of all, I will eliminate all programs by this test, if they don’t pass it: Is the program so critical it’s worth borrowing money from China to pay for it? And if not, I’ll get rid of it. Obamacare’s on my list.
“I’m sorry, Jim, I’m going to stop the subsidy to PBS. I’m going to stop other things. I like PBS, I love Big Bird. Actually like you, too. But I’m not going to — I’m not going to keep on spending money on things to borrow money from China to pay for.”
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That’s the amazing thing about last night. When you put what Romney said on paper in the light of day, it’s completely absurd, but he looked good doing it.
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I disagree. It’s argument about setting priorities on spending and the Obama administration’s manifest failure to do so for the past four years, despite promising to:
The argument is packaged for the debate audience, but it’s still a valid point. You aren’t going to close the annual $1 trillion plus budget deficits with tax increases.
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jnc:
Oh yes I agree about needing more than tax increases, but the argument about China is so ludicrous that it would only appeal to a 3AM drinking Jack Black glassy eyed straight from the bottle while watching a rerun of Hannity and dry firing at the mother in law’s picture sort of person.
In the real world, Mitt didn’t get the message:
“China Cuts Long-Term Treasuries By Most Ever as Yields Drop”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-17/china-cuts-long-term-treasury-holdings-by-most-ever-as-u-s-yields-decline.html
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john, i think China is hitting the Ben’s bid…
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brent
They were ahead of the curve. That story was from 2010 and they have been continuing ever since:
‘This marked the third consecutive month for China, the largest holder of US Treasury securities, reduced the amount of US Treasury bonds in the portfolio of its $3.18 trillion foreign exchange reserves. It is also the lowest level since June 2010.
Overall, the country has trimmed 5 percent of its holdings over the entire year of 2011. It held $1.16 trillion in Dec 2010.”
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2012-02/16/content_14624821.htm
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In fact the Treasury had to offer China direct access to them (no Wall Street middleman) in order to induce them to even coninue buying them or so it is rumored.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-china-rea…
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Since Romney repudiated literally everything Paul Ryan has ever said or done last night, has Ryan been taken to that undisclosed location that Dick Cheney used to use, back in the day?
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We wish this was beyond belief but we know better:
“Secret Cold War tests in St. Louis raise concerns”
http://news.yahoo.com/secret-cold-war-tests-st-louis-raise-concerns-214608828.html
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Banned – as your citation notes, China is still the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities outside of U.S. Government itself, even after reducing their portfolio?
Overall, the argument is what spending should be considered a high enough priority that it should be financed with borrowed money. It’s the opposite of the Keynesian argument that we should have even more deficit spending now because current interest rates are low and “money is cheap” which of course ignores what the debt service will be once rates go back up again.
Considering the target audience of the debate, I think it’s a clear, memorable way to make his point on debt financed spending and national priorities.
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Also, I believe your Zero Hedge link is truncated.
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“Mo. Rep. Akin failed to report state pension”
http://news.yahoo.com/mo-rep-akin-failed-report-state-pension-161955166–election.html
Too busy looking for doctors performing abortions on not pregnant women perhaps?
(he cares too much, it’s takes all of his time)
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jnc
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-china-rea
works for me, you?
Yes of course we need to cut spending you and I will always agree on that, but I guess i overestimate the target audience
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“On the economic front, factory orders posted the largest decline since January 2009, but the drop was not as large as expected, according to the Commerce Department.
Weekly jobless claims rose less than expected last week, to a seasonally adjusted 367,000, according to the Labor Department. Meanwhile, planned layoffs in September jumped, after hitting a 20-month low in August, according to the report from consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
“In the absence of bad news, we’ll drift higher and that’s what’s been going on,” said Brian Battle, vice president of trading at Performance Trust Capital Partners. “The economic number that matters the most is the unemployment number.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49286973
Through the looking glass, and falling down the steps on the other side, but thank you again Ben. You complete me.
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banned:
We wish this was beyond belief but we know better:
Well, that’s pretty old news. The military did a lot of open-air tests of both biological and chemical “weapon-like” substances during the Cold War. Probably the most famous is the Serratia marcescens (bacteria normally found in our gut) sprayed into the air by the Navy off the coast of San Francisco in 1951. But there were other “attacks” in the NYC subways, bus terminals, airports, etc.
I think zinc cadmium sulfide is carcinogenic all by itself, so there wouldn’t be a need to invoke radioactivity.
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mike
I yield to you and Michi on this one. My experience of bacteria and germs is standing outside the kids bathroom and telling them to empty their trash can directly into the big bag for me.
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banned:
I’ll bet Michi’s got stories she could tell us, but would have to kill us afterwards …
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But there were other “attacks” in the NYC subways, bus terminals, airports, etc.
We’re not as special as we think we are, are we? Reading “Unbroken” I’m realizing we sent a lot of kids on basically suicide missions with a lot of faulty equipment. They went anyway, even knowing what was going on. The people are much better than the government or it’s leaders.
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I’ll bet Michi’s got stories she could tell us, but would have to kill us afterwards …
And they’d find you right about the time they find Jimmy Hoffa, too. . .
🙂
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What I remember of the Cold War as a kid was the bomb drills and the bomb shelters people were building in their backyards. I remember sitting at my desk in elementary school looking at the wall of windows on one side of the classroom and thinking, hiding under my desk probably wouldn’t save me.
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” You aren’t going to close the annual $1 trillion plus budget deficits with tax increases.”
Nor with spending cuts, alone.
Perhaps the solution will include both.
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Nor with spending cuts, alone.
I read somewhere yesterday that we’ve already achieved 38% of the spending cuts needed via the budget cuts around the debt ceiling compromise. If you take out entitlements and defense we already have lower government spending than we’ve had in years.
I tried to find the link but can’t remember where I read it.
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“lmsinca, on October 4, 2012 at 2:44 pm said:
…
If you take out entitlements and defense we already have lower government spending than we’ve had in years. “
As those two things are the primary drivers of current government spending levels, I would submit that’s not a very useful exercise. Entitlements and defense are the first things I would cut.
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I agree jnc, but Republicans and Romney act as if cutting funding for PBS, Planned Parenthood, plus all the various Departments would really make a big difference. We need to be bolder and figure this out. Health care costs and defense need to be tackled. Putting $718 million back into medicare advantage and whatnot isn’t a solution.
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In terms of PBS specifically I have three points:
1. The original justification for PBS was based on only having three commercial networks in the era of broadcast TV and has clearly been superseded by events. Should government programs be regularly reviewed for relevance or just automatically continue in perpetuity?
2. PBS’s properties and the product licensing associated with them can go a long way to bridging any gap after federal funding is removed. The end of federal funding doesn’t automatically entail the end of PBS.
3. Symbolism matters. If we are going to do entitlement cuts that will impact lower income people, then everything else needs to be on the table as well especially federal funding for the arts that primarily caters to middle and upper income people. Or to put it another way, if we can’t cut PBS in an era of annual $1 trillion deficits, what can we cut?
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I don’t necessarily object to cutting programs like PBS or the Arts, if that’s truly where we need to go, but pretending (not you, them) those cuts will solve our financial problems is bizarre. I also think a case can be made that we need to subsidize art and public broadcasting in order to counteract the dog eat dog nature of capitalism and hard work. Sterilizing the world around us could end in sensory deprivation if we’re not careful. What’s next, museums, libraries, monuments……………….etc. There are some things that don’t lend themselves to private investment and profit.
BTW, the big bird campaign was just a joke on my part.
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” if we can’t cut PBS in an era of annual $1 trillion deficits, what can we cut?”
why think big when you can think small?
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I do think that the justification for PBS federal funds is past its sell-by date, and I think it would survive with help from viewers like me.
OTOH,IMHO, the justification for NPR continues: there is no serious radio journalism with foreign correspondents or rural farm reports without it.
But conflating eliminating fed funds from PBS with budget control is silly.
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Newly published study shows that access to free birth control reduces abortion rates significantly and saves money:
I haven’t been able to track down the actual article yet, but if anyone is interested I’ll do so and post a link to it tomorrow.
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BTW, if any of you see this in time (and aren’t college football fans), if you’d like to see what SLC looks like on a beautiful fall evening, tune into tonight’s football game on ESPN for a bit (starting at 7:00 MDT). We’re hosting USC tonight, and the weather couldn’t be better!
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Michi
“When you provide no-cost contraception, and you remove that barrier, you finally reduce unintended pregnancy rates. It doesn’t matter what side one is on politically, that’s a good thing.”
Jeeze, I wish someone would send this to the mayor of Midland, TX. We spend so much money and ruin so many lives when an ounce of prevention and dimes of investment reap huge financial and social benefits. I really don’t get it. It’s the same with Planned Parenthood………………..a huge bang for the buck that not only saves lives but prevents pregnancies. It’s as if there’s no vision for this stuff at all.
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I know that at 62 I should really be much more mature and not take such pleasure in irritating people occasionally. Don’t worry, you won’t hurt my feelings by agreeing with me…………lol. Sometimes I just can’t resist. It’s the same defect in my personality that compels me to link to Matt Taibbi, sorry Scott.
These were created by a commenter named Cletus over at Americablog.
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“Michigoose, on October 4, 2012 at 6:17 pm said:
Newly published study shows that access to free birth control reduces abortion rates significantly and saves money:”
I still argue that it’s more about requiring a prescription than cost per se, hence my support for making birth control pills available over the counter or from a pharmacist without a prescription.
http://articles.latimes.com/2012/feb/20/opinion/la-oe-potts-the-pill-revisited-20120220
There is a Libertarian solution that increases “access” without requiring other people to subsidize it.
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“lmsinca, on October 4, 2012 at 7:26 pm said:
I know that at 62 I should really be much more mature and not take such pleasure in irritating people occasionally.”
I believe that the Onion takes the prize for least mature commentary on the cause of President Obama’s lackluster debate performance:
“Biden Implores Obama To ‘Rub One Out’ Before Debate
‘Don’t Want Pussy On The Mind Out There,’ Reports Vice President
October 3, 2012 | ISSUE 48•40 | More News in Brief ”
http://www.theonion.com/articles/biden-implores-obama-to-rub-one-out-before-debate,29785/
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jnc:
One of the points that the article (and the study) makes is that the pill is extremely effective, but still has about an 8% failure rate. Women were encouraged to use IUDs or implants, and those methods were what really drove the unwanted pregnancy rate down, since they’re >99% effective.
Those are also the two methods that are the least likely to be chosen by low- to middle-income women (with or [mostly] without insurance) due to their high cost.
I know that you dearly love the idea of OTC BCP, but those aren’t the panacea that you’d like them to be.
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I believe that the Onion takes the prize for least mature commentary
While I would have to say the article is classic Onion, probably the best part was the picture of Biden they found. Priceless!
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I don’t know if anyone saw this yesterday or not.
(Reuters) In an era of leaner times and tighter regulation, big mutual funds and pensions are growing more vocal in pushing executives at investment banks to rein in pay and bonuses and consider more staff cuts. Investors worry that bank employees are getting too big a piece of a shrinking pie, leaving shareholders a much smaller slice.
So far, much of the jousting is taking place behind closed doors. But the debate over whether investment banks should keep devoting roughly 50 percent of revenue to employee compensation is starting to enter the public realm through proxy battles and as more large shareholders speak out on the issue.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/04/us-financial-compensation-idUSBRE8931PM20121004
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I think essentially Romney realized he was losing and so changed his position, at least for the campaign, on key issues. Most of us expected him to move to the middle after the primaries and why he waited so long is beyond me. I read somewhere that he even admitted he was wrong on the 47% comments yesterday. He still says he’ll repeal Obamacare and turn Medicare into a voucher system but his tax plan is much more muddled and I’m not sure where he stands on financial regulation at all. In many ways I’m more confused about his policies now than I was before the debate.
(Reuters) On issues from taxes to Medicare to financial regulations, the former Massachusetts governor steered a more moderate course than he did while wooing conservatives during the Republican primaries this year, even embracing parts of Obama’s record that have been targets for conservative Republicans.
At one point, Romney suggested that he would not change the amount of taxes paid for by high-income Americans. That contrasts with the plan Romney has touted for months – which would cut all Americans’ tax rates by 20 percent – and is more in line with Obama’s plan to give tax cuts only to those with annual incomes of less than $250,000.
Romney also stepped onto more moderate ground after Obama questioned why big, highly profitable oil companies should get massive tax breaks. Romney said he would consider cutting tax subsidies for oil companies.
He cast himself as a defender of Medicare, the government health insurance program for the elderly and disabled, by saying he would restore $716 billion in spending to it – a move that analysts say would require dramatic cuts to other federal programs.
Romney – a wealthy former private equity executive who has touted his record in business – also said he liked parts of the Dodd-Frank bill, a 2010 law that increases the government’s oversight of the U.S. financial sector, and which Romney has vowed to repeal.
During the primaries many conservative Republicans were suspicious of Romney’s conservative credentials, largely because of his moderate record in Massachusetts.
But no Republicans seemed to be complaining Thursday, after Romney’s aggressive performance in the Denver debate gave new life to his struggling campaign and raised the prospect that he could come from behind and defeat Obama next month.
Political analysts said it was clear that Romney’s new positions threw off Obama during the debate, and they wondered whether conservatives might eventually have some regrets if Romney means what he said on Wednesday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/04/us-usa-campaign-romney-idUSBRE8931RA20121004
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“Michigoose, on October 4, 2012 at 11:35 pm said:
I know that you dearly love the idea of OTC BCP, but those aren’t the panacea that you’d like them to be.”
I find it a useful way to distinguish between “access” as a legitimate issue vs subsidies. The same argument can be made about President Obama’s decision to overrule the FDA on Plan B sales over the counter.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/obama-administration-refuses-to-relax-plan-b-restrictions/2011/12/07/gIQAF5HicO_story.html
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2011/12/Obama-No-involvement-in-Plan-B-decision-581152/1#.UG7gYK5X98E
As with many issues, there’s less of a difference between President Obama and various Republicans on birth control than many would like to believe.
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As with many issues, there’s less of a difference between President Obama and various Republicans on birth control than many would like to believe
True. And the administration’s decision on Plan B was a huge disappointment to me.
I find it a useful way to distinguish between “access” as a legitimate issue vs subsidies
I hadn’t thought about it that way; good point. But if I had to make a list of health care issues that I’d be willing to subsidize, birth control would be #1. I’d rather pay for someone to get an IUD and associated care than OTC BCP and Plan B.
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