Debate Night

Posted on October 3, 2012 by lmsinca

This will be an open thread, live blogging the first Presidential debate.

From a variety of sources this is what we know:

The first presidential debate of 2012 will be held on Wednesday, Oct. 3, at the University of Denver in Denver, Colo. The moderator is Jim Lehrer, executive editor of the PBS NewsHour.

The Commission on Presidential Debates said the 2012 presidential debates will be moderated by a single individual and take place from 9 to 10:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. Neither of the candidates will be permitted to give opening statements, but will be allowed 2 minutes for closing statements.

The first debate will focus on domestic policy. The specific topics will be announced several weeks beforehand, and the debate will be divided into six 15-minute segments focusing on each. The moderator will ask a question, and each candidate will have 2 minutes to respond.

It should go something like this:

A debate that will consist of a total of six time segments of approximately fifteen minutes each in length. The issues to be discussed by the candidates have been agreed to in advance of the debate. Lehrer said on September 19, as he announced the issues that would be debated on Wednesday, that the first three segments would focus on “the economy”, while the final three would discuss “health care, the role of government, and governing”.

Each candidate will be asked a question by the moderator, and the candidate will respond with his answer, representing his personal view on the question. Some new proposals may be introduced during the debate, and while the debate will have few direct interactions between the candidates, both candidates are expected to question the proposals of their opponent.

And then a little hopeful thinking from one of Nova’s links:

Who knows? Maybe one day there will be candidates who will see it as politically advantageous to reveal themselves in this way. In the meantime, take note of a meaningful rule change announced this year by the presidential debate commission. For the first time, in the first and third events, the candidates will each get two minutes to respond to the opening question for each 15-minute segment, and then “the moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a discussion.” That could mean up to 11 minutes of free-wheeling talk between the candidates. In a 90-minute debate, that could happen six times.

That is not insignificant. And if the candidates use that time not to make speeches or repeat talking points, or to ignore an important question that was just asked, but instead to listen, engage and think in a way the audience can witness, we just might get a presidential debate that deserves the label.

What are you looking for in the debate? Do debates ever change the trajectory of an election? Why are there so few chances for third party candidates to participate? Will we hear any surprises, policy-wise, from what we’ve heard on the campaign trail?

And lastly, here are some body language tells we can all watch for…………hahahahahaha

1. An itchy nose could be a sign that someone isn’t telling the truth. If someone is scratching their nose, there could be an issue

2. Hands in pockets are a sign of insecurity

3. Crossed arms don’t necessarily mean a person is angry or protective: They could just be cold in the studio where the debates are taking place!

4. Touching the neck could be a sign that someone is threatened or feels insecure

5. Finger pointing is a sign of aggression and it can make the audience mistrust the speaker

Another telltale sign, experts say, is frequent blinking by a speaker. It might indicate that person is uncomfortable with the words they are saying.

Filed under: 2012, Debates, Mitt Romney, Obama | 157 Comments »

Morning Report 10/3/12

Posted on October 3, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1442.2 1.3 0.09%
Eurostoxx Index 2491.1 -2.5 -0.10%
Oil (WTI) 91.06 -0.8 -0.90%
LIBOR 0.353 -0.002 -0.42%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.89 0.143 0.18%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.62% 0.00%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 194.4 0.2  

Markets are flattish after ADP says US companies added 162,000 jobs in September.  This was better than expectations.  August was revised downward from 201k to 189k.  Mortgage applications rose 16.6% as rates fell.  Bonds and MBS are down small.

Corelogic reported home prices increased 4.6% in August 2012 compared to August 2011.  This was the biggest percentage increase in prices since 2006. All but 6 states reported price gains. They are forecasting a 5% increase for Sep. 

While we fret about Europe, the other problem lies across the Pacific – the bursting of the Chinese real estate bubble. The Chinese appear to be at the final phase of the bubble, where the government is hoping that prices simply stagnate for a decade while economic growth and incomes catch up. Unfortunately, experience tells us once bubbles become inflated they take on a life of their own.  That said, the Chinese are savers, and have a cushion that US and European households do not. 

The Washington Post tries to game the election for the markets.  Bottom line:  the evidence is mixed, so don’t try and trade it.  Of course pundits from each political persuasion will try and claim that they are better for the markets. The article ignores the most important consideration (IMO) – An Obama win means the Fed will continue its policy of aggressive quantitative easing.  A Romney win means a new Federal Reserve Chairman, and presumably less aggressive measures.  So at the margin, an Obama win is bond bullish (or neutral), while a Romney win is bond bearish.  I would say that would apply to the stock market as well, at least in the short term.  Longer term, the economy will benefit more from less manipulation of interest rates than more.  ZIRP is creating imbalances that will create problems down the road.

Filed under: Morning Report | 46 Comments »